Thursday, March 31, 2005

Congressional District 14

Congressional District 14

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Chad Miles (Dearborn)
Democrat Candidates – John Conyers (Detroit)

Current Rep – John Conyers (D-Detroit)
Years in office – 40 (1965-present)

2004 Results
John Conyers – 84%
Veronica Pedraza – 14%

Presidential results:

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 17%, Bush 18%
Kerry – 83%, Gore 81%

Cook’s partisan index – Democrats +33

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:
Wayne County:
Part of Detroit, Allen Park, Part of Dearborn, Gibralter, Grosse Ile, Hamtramck, Highland Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Southgate, and Trenton.

I did not data mine the Detroit precincts for this since it is mostly 90% democrat across the board. This district covers the West Side of Detroit, as well as Dearborn and part of Downriver. The only Republican area in this district is Grosse Ile. Gibralter, Riverview, Trenton, and Allen Park are winnable in a good year.

This is one of the most Democrat Districts in the country, and John Conyers is probably safe here until he retires or is primaried out. It will take a miracle for the GOP to take this seat. That said, I’d love to see one happen.

2 comments:

Kevins said...

Why did Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick run in this district too?

Republican Michigander said...

My mistake. I used the same template for all districts and forgot to change the candidate.