Thursday, March 31, 2005

Congressional District 15

Congressional District 15

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Vincent Vernuccio (Write-in)
Democrat Candidates – John Dingell (Dearborn)

Current Rep – John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Years in office – 50 (1956-present)

2004 Results
John Dingell – 70.97%
Dawn Reamer – 26.52%

Presidential results:
2004 (Approximate – my numbers)
Bush - 38.19%
Kerry – 60.87%

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 38%, Bush 38%
Kerry – 62%, Gore 60%

Cook’s partisan index – Democrats +13

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:
All of Monroe County

Washtenaw County:
Ann Arbor, Augusta, Pittsfield, Superior, York, and Ypsilanti Townships. Cities of Ann Arbor, Milan, and Ypsilanti.

Wayne County:
Brownstown, Huron, and Sumpter Townships. Cities of Flat Rock, Inkster, Rockwood, Romulus, Taylor, Woodhaven, and parts of Dearborn and Dearborn Heights.

This district was created to eliminate a democrat, either Lynn Rivers or John Dingell. This is compact district combining union democrat strongholds and academia democrat strongholds. The Eastern part of Dingell’s downriver district was carved up between John Conyers and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick due to Detroit’s steady population decrease. Dingell kept part of Dearborn and Southern Wayne County, and also kept Monroe County. He took in Eastern Washtenaw County, including the strongholds of Ypsilanti (Ypsi) and Ann Arbor. Ann Arbor is dominated by the University of Michigan and was Tom Hayden’s old school. Ypsi is a mix of university town and union town. Both are over 70% democrat.
The only areas Bush won in this district are Monroe County and York Township in Washtenaw County. Monroe swings, and York Township is solidly republican. That’s not enough to win this district, especially against someone like Dingell who has cross party support due to his pro-NRA stance and support for the auto industry. This district is safe for the democrats. It'll take a miracle for the GOP to win.

2 comments:

Paleoconservative said...

Dan: There is a candidate for this district now:
http://www.vernuccioforcongress.com/

Republican Michigander said...

Thanks. Added.