Saturday, March 05, 2005

Congressional District 8

Congressional District 8

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Mike Rogers (Hamburg/Brighton)
Democrat Candidates – Jim Marcinkowski (Lake Orion)

Current Rep – Mike Rogers (R-Brighton)
Years in office – 5 (2001-present)

2004 Results
Mike Rogers – 61.08%
Bob Alexander – 36.90%

Presidential results:
2004 (Approximate – my numbers)
Bush - 53.71%
Kerry – 45.30%

Barone’s numbers
Bush – 54%, Bush 51%
Kerry – 45%, Gore 47%

Cook’s partisan index – Republicans +2

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Strongly Republican.

District covers:
All of these Counties: - Clinton, Ingham, Livingston

Oakland County : - Addison, Brandon, Groveland, Holly, Independence, Oxford, Rose, Springfield, and Orion (part) Townships. City of Clarkston.

Shiawassee County: - Antrim, Bennington, Burns, Perry, Sciota, Shiawassee, Vernon (part), and Woohull Townships. Cities of Durand, Laingsburg, and Perry.

This district has a strong republican leaning, and more so for Rogers. Redistricting took away the Genesee County and Washtenaw County portions of the district and replaced them with Clinton County (Where Mike represented as a State Senator) and the most republican part of Oakland County. Bush received 62.15% of the vote in this portion of Oakland County, almost as much as his Livingston numbers. He received 55.18% in his portion of Shiawassee County. Clinton County took a right turn toward its roots in 2008 (although it is less GOP in gubernatorial years due to state workers in Bath and DeWitt). Livingston posted its highest GOP presidential percentage since 1988. Ingham County is a democrat stronghold however, and has about 1/3 of the voters, enough to keep me from considering this a safe seat, even for Mike Rogers. It will still be double tough for the democrats to win. Rogers won Ingham County in 2002, and almost won it in 2004.
Rogers won his first race by 88 votes in a recount against Dianne Byrum for Stabenow’s open seat. That was the closest race in the country. In that race, Rogers ahead of Bush in most of the district, which is still the case today. He lost in Genesee County and won in Washtenaw County, neither of which are still in the district. In Ingham County, he lost Bunker Hill, Delhi, Lansing, Leslie, Meridian, and Onondaga Townships. He lost the cities of East Lansing, Lansing, Leslie, Mason. He lost Holly in Oakland County. Dianne Byrum was from the rural portion of Ingham County, and represented that area for years. Rogers now gets big margins in the rural areas, and runs ahead of most republicans in the Lansing area.

In his 2002 blowout against Frank McAlpine, he won every municipality in the district outside of the City of East Lansing where McAlpine lives. In 2004 against Bob Alexander, he won every municipality outside of the Cities of East Lansing, Lansing, and Lansing Township. All of those are democrat strongholds republicans rarely are expected to win.

This year, the democrats think they have a chance and their union leadership allies are spending money on robocalls running attack ads against Rogers. Their candidate is Jim Marcinkowski. Mike Rogers also has a primary opponent in Patrick Flynn, who occasionally posts here.

Marcinkowski is an ex-CIA agent whose claim to fame is the Joe Wilson case. Since he’s an old friend of Wilson and Valerie Plame and has an axe to grind with Bush, he thinks he’s qualified to replace Mike Rogers. I am not impressed with him thus far, especially after seeing his Q&A session on the Booman Tribune. He is overcoached.

The only way this district changes hands is if Livingston County and Oakland County have low turnouts for this race (re. 1998 – many pro-lifers skipping the congressional race), the democrat breaks 62% in Ingham County, wins Shiawassee County, and narrows the Republican to a small victory in Clinton County. I do not expect all of those things happening against Mike Rogers unless he changes 100% and votes pro-abortion or anti-gun. That is not going to happen. This district will likely stay in Republican hands.

UPDATE - Rogers won the primary easily.

Mike Rogers - 42,036
Patrick Flynn - 7,805