Sunday, October 30, 2005

Bouchard is back in Senate race

An email from State Party prints part of a MIRSNEWS report that confirms what most have been speculating.

Anuzis Confirms Bouchard Bid
State GOP chair Saul ANUZIS confirms an earlier MIRS report that Oakland County Sheriff Mike BOUCHARD will get into the GOP U.S. Senate primary next week joining two other hopefuls.

“This shows how vulnerable Democrat Debbie STABENOW (D-Lansing) is,” Anuzis told WJR radio on Friday morning.

He said he had conversations with Bouchard this week about his candidacy. The chair came away from those talks with the impression Bouchard would jump in. The sheriff has been busy lining up financial support and had a private dinner with a key supporter on Thursday night. All the signals from his fund raising efforts appear to be positive according to Anuzis.

Bouchard will join the Rev. Keith BUTLER and west Michigan candidate Jerry ZANDSTRA in the three-person race.

Bouchard dropped out of the contest for undisclosed medical reasons earlier this year, but if all the legal hurdles can be overcome, he will issue a statement from his physician giving him a clean bill of health for the contest.

Another party source says the Bouchard announcement could come “early next week.”


Could Bouchard win? In his favor have been easy wins in Oakland County as sheriff and state senator. The 361,092 votes were more than John Kerry (who won Oakland) received.

2004 - Oakland County Sheriff

REP - MICHAEL J. BOUCHARD - 361,092 - 60.24%
DEM - MARK D. MITCHELL - 238,368 - 39.76%

His last State Senatorial race was in 1998 in what was then the 13th district. He defeated Jeffrey Jenks 57,752 to 29,411 in a district which also went for Spence Abraham, Al Gore, and John Kerry. It's more democrat today than it was then. Part of that was due to Bouchard's pull. Part of that was due to Geoffrey Fieger leading the ticket for the democrats, and John Engler leading the ticket for the GOP. Part of that was most likely a weak opponent for Bouchard. Ferndale is not supposed to be close.

The district has been redistricted since 98. The most democrat areas (Huntington Woods, Ferndale, Pleasant Ridge, and Hazel Park) are now in the Gilda Jacobs district, while most of the rest of the district is in Shirley Johnson's(Bouchard's replacement) district.

I compared Bouchard 98 to 2000's senate race, and Bush in 2004. Spence Abraham ran ahead of Bush in 2000 in Oakland County as he's an Auburn Hills native.

District as a whole
(1998) Bouchard - 57752 - 64.37%, Jenks - 29411 - 32.78%
(2000) Abraham - 61804 - 49.52%, Stabenow - 58609 - 46.96%
(2004) Bush - 65922 - 47.64%, Kerry - 70948 - 51.27%

Birmingham
Bouchard - 6533 - 74.58%, Jenks - 2030 - 23.17%
Abraham - 6848 - 57.94%, Stabenow - 4718 - 39.92%
Bush - 6772 - 54.70%, Kerry - 5508 - 44.49%

Bloomfield Hills
Bouchard - 1604 - 80.28%, Jenks - 363 - 18.17%
Abraham - 1822 - 69.78%, Stabenow - 752 - 28.80%
Bush - 1802 - 64.89%, Kerry - 951 - 34.25%

Both Bloomfield Hills and Birmingham are wealthy areas which have treaded less Republican and more democrat due to social issues.

Clawson
Bouchard - 3321 - 67.19%, Jenks - 1469 - 29.72%
Abraham - 3171 - 48.10%, Stabenow - 3144 - 47.69%
Bush - 3584 - 50.24%, Kerry - 3471 - 48.65%

Ferndale
Bouchard - 2916 - 48.00%, Jenks - 3002 - 49.42%
Abraham - 3068 - 32.94%, Stabenow - 5796 - 62.23%
Bush - 3456 - 30.71%, Kerry - 7637 - 67.87%

Hazel Park
Bouchard - 2048 - 47.41%, Jenks - 2061 - 47.71%
Abraham - 2204 - 35.25%, Stabenow - 3706 - 59.27%
Bush - 2780 - 38.20%, Kerry - 4412 - 60.62%

Huntington Woods
Bouchard - 1420 - 42.50%, Jenks - 1867 - 55.88%
Abraham - 1164 - 28.53%, Stabenow - 2806 - 68.77%
Bush - 1236 - 28.53%, Kerry - 3068 - 70.82%

Madison Heights
Bouchard - 4568 - 59.97%, Jenks - 3092 - 38.18%
Abraham - 5034 - 42.00%, Stabenow - 6408 - 53.46%
Bush - 5934 - 43.79%, Kerry - 7443 - 54.92%

Pleasant Ridge
Bouchard - 704 - 55.39%, Jenks - 546 - 42.96%
Abraham - 601 - 38.13%, Stabenow - 922 - 58.50%
Bush - 658 - 36.23%, Kerry - 1140 - 62.78%

Royal Oak
Bouchard - 14482 - 61.52%, Jenks - 8161 - 34.67%
Abraham - 15045 - 47.13%, Stabenow - 15606 - 48.88%
Bush - 15529 - 44.26%, Kerry - 19143 - 54.57%

Troy
Bouchard - 19868 - 72.60%, Jenks - 6820 - 24.92%
Abraham - 22847 - 59.12%, Stabenow - 38.17%
Bush - 24171 - 56.52%, Kerry - 42.50%

ASSUMING Bouchard's health is in good shape, the two question are this. Can Bouchard take back Oakland for the GOP? Can Bouchard win Central Oakland County's socially liberal swing votes without alienating the base and also the more socially conservative swing voters in Macomb County and Northern Michigan? Mike Cox was able to pull it off in his Attorney General race.

As for the primary, the big question is how Bouchard affects Butler. Both are from Oakland County, and I suspect much of the Bouchard votes are would-be Butler votes in other cases. The big winner in this might actually be Jerry Zandstra if West Michigan votes as a block, and if the Detroit area splits the vote between Bouchard and Butler.

I don't know where Bouchard stands on the issues. That is something I'll look forward to seeing. This should be an interesting primary.

4 comments:

AuH2ORepublican said...

I will continue to support Keith Butler in the Senate race, since he is that rare candidate who can energize the conservative vote while appealing to Democrat voters.

Why doesn’t Bouchard run for Governor instead? DeVos doesn’t seem to be the answer for the GOP, and if polls show one or the other candidate ahead the one who is behind can drop out and become the Lt. Gov. candidate (Bouchard and DeVos would provide a geographically balanced ticket).

Patrick Flynn said...

Butler is the only Republican candidate who can capture a large section of Detroit, Lansing, Benton Harbor, Flint, etc. Any other Repub will glue Stabenow to her chair for another term. The urban Dems and (dis)organized labor will ensure defeat for anyone but Butler, at least at this time.

Patrick Flynn said...

Ladies and Gentlemen, Please don't roll over on Keith. Think about this. It's the only way to send Debbie packing.

Republican Michigander said...
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