Friday, October 07, 2005

Comments on the poll (2008 wide open)

Online Poll Results
Republicans
Tom Tancredo - 15%
Condoleeza Rice - 15%
George Allen - 13%
Newt Gingrich - 11%
Rudy Giuliani - 10%
Mark Sanford - 8%
John McCain - 6%
Mitt Romney - 6%
Tim Pawlenty - 3%
Bill Frist - 3%
Sam Brownback - 1%
Mike Huckabee and George Pataki - 0%


Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 5%
Mark Warner, Joe Biden, and Wesley Clark - 1%
Bill Richardson, John Kerry, and Evan Bayh - 0%

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I'm not surprised on most of the results. Condoleeza Rice and Tom Tancredo both have very strong followings. Tancredo was 2nd at the Mackinac straw poll ($1 a vote). George Allen is one of the frontrunners and is possibly the establishment choice. Newt Gingrich is still well known from his days as House Speaker. I expected Rudy to win actually, since while he's liberal on many issues, has strong leadership qualities that are acceptable to many conservatives. Mark Sanford is my first choice, and has some pockets of support among the club for growth crowd. McCain isn't very popular with most republicans I know personally, so I'm not surprised at his showing here, although I am surprised at Mitt Romney. I figured his numbers here would improve after his Mackinac Speech. Tim Pawlenty has a good record as Minnesota governor, but does not have high name recogition. Sam Brownback also suffers from lack of name recognition, although I figured he would have more votes here. I can't see Frist getting past the Iowa straw poll. Mike Huckabee has some followers in the South, but I'm not sure his economic liberalism will go over well in 2008. George Pataki has about as much chance of becoming president as I do.

On the democrats side, Hillary had most of the votes which isn't surprising, although I expected Mark Warner and Bill Richardson to do better. Wes Clark is a favorite of the Daily Kos crowd. Evan Bayh is disliked by the democrat base for his wishy washiness on abortion. I can't believe John Kerry is still running for president. I can't see democrats forgiving him for being unable to defeat President Bush in 2008 - especially since he won the primary over the favorite Howard Dean for being "electable".

My early prediction in 2008 is a George Allen vs Mark Warner Virginia matchup.