Saturday, April 30, 2005

State Senate - District 32

State Senate - District 32

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Roger Kahn (Saginaw)
Democrat Candidates – Dave Adams (St Charles), Aaron Dodak (Burt), Carl Williams (Saginaw)

Current Rep – Mike Goschka (R-Brant)

2002 Results
Mike Goschka – 54.62%
Mike Hanley – 45.38%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 51.79%
Bush – 47.41%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Tossup

District covers:
Saginaw and Gratiot Counties

This is going to be one of the GOP’s toughest defenses. Mike Goschka did the impossible and win Saginaw area districts for the GOP. He upset a then speaker of the house, Lew Dodak, and then moved on to the State Senate later. Much of the county is more Republican now than it used to be. Two of the three districts covering Saginaw County are now held by Republicans, as well as Goschka’s state senate district. Saginaw County is not as democrat as its reputation. The City of Saginaw is another matter.

That said, there is still a union and democrat leaning to Saginaw County, recently hovering at 53-54% Democrat at the top of the ticket. Neighboring Gratiot County is solidly Republican, but accounts for less than 1/5 of the voters. Saginaw is where this election is decided. In Saginaw County, the democrats off the bat have a 17,000 vote spread (Presidential years) that the GOP needs to make up due to a three-headed monster. The City of Saginaw, Buena Vista Township, and Bridgeport Townships are 74.02%, 82.49%, and 61.93% democrat. They give the county the democrat leaning. Bridgeport and Buena Vista are small areas, but their one sidedness makes them significant. Saginaw has about ¼ of the county’s population.

The suburban and rural areas lean republican. Saginaw Township has more voters than the City, and leans Republican, although not overwhelmingly so. Frankenmuth (and Blumfield Twp just North of there) is small, but 70-75% Republican. In order for the Republicans to win this district, they need to win the rural and suburban areas big, cut down on the losses in Saginaw itself, and win Gratiot County big. It’s tough, but Goschka did it twice here.

There is no GOP primary as Roger Kahn is unopposed. He is a one-term state rep in a slightly Republican district covering Eastern Saginaw County outside of the City itself. He is also a long time county commissioner and a doctor.

On the democrat side, there’s a three way race here between Dave Adams, Carl Williams, and Aaron Dodak. Carl Williams is a state rep from the City of Saginaw. Aaron Dodak is Lew Dodak’s son and a GM engineer. Dave Adams is a teacher. This is a pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment district. I do not know where Dodak or Adams is on those issues, but Williams is a left-winger in a more social conservative district. The primary will be interesting and if the gun issue or life issue is neutralized, advantage democrats. If not, advantage Kahn, who ran about 3% ahead of Bush in his state rep district – just enough to win this district.

State Senate - District 31

State Senate - District 31

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Zack Nuncio (Bay City)
Democrat Candidates – Jim Barcia (Bay City)

Current Rep – Jim Barcia (D-Bay City)

2002 Results
Jim Barcia – 60.50%
Mike Green – 39.50%

Presidential results:
Bush – 50.98%
Kerry – 47.98%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
All of Arenac, Bay, Tuscola, Huron, and Sanilac Counties

Kent County – Grandville and Sparta Township

This is about the only Bush won district I am calling safe democrat. It would be a tossup district, except that Jim Barcia is personally popular here. Barcia’s a moderate democrat who is pro-life and pro-2nd amendment and fit the district well. He represented this area in congress, and redistricted carved up the thumb.district, giving most of it to Candice Miller, Northern Bay County and Arenac County to Bart Stupak, and throwing Bay City and Tuscola County is a Flint based district with Dale Kildee. Barcia had three options. He could have run against Dale Kildee, run against Bart Stupak, or go back to the State Senate. He chose the last option, which is too bad since Mike Green’s a good guy. Green was a state rep from Tuscola County most known for writing the Conceal Carry Law. He was the best possible candidate we could run here, but Barcia’s crossover appeal was too much for Green to deal with. This time, Barcia faces Zack Nuncio, a college student in Bay City.

This will be a major battle in 2010. Bay County is solidly democrat and has 40% of the vote. Arenac County leans democrat, but it is small in population. Tuscola leans Republican, but will vote person over party. Huron and Sanilac Counties are solidly Republican and combine for over 1/3 of the vote. That makes this a 50/50 district in most cases. These are all more populist areas, so people like Barcia and Green do best.

State Senate - District 30

State Senate - District 30

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Wayne Kuipers (Holland)
Democrat Candidates – Scott Vanderstoep (Holland)

Current Rep – Wayne Kuipers (R-Kentwood)

2002 Results
Wayne Kuipers – 76.63%
John O’Brien – 23.37%

Presidential results:
Bush – 71.37%
Kerry – 27.79%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
All of Ottawa County

Kent County – Grandville and Sparta Township

This is the most Republican district in the state. It contains all of Ottawa County along with Grandville and Sparta Township in Kent County. Ottawa County is consistently 71% GOP year after year. Grandville and Sparta consistently are 72% and 63% GOP. This district is almost as Republican as Ann Arbor is democrat. Any contest here comes in a primary.

Thursday, April 28, 2005

State Senate - District 29

State Senate - District 29

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Bill Hardiman (Kentwood)
Democrat Candidates – David LaGrand (Grand Rapids)

Current Rep – Ken Hardiman (R-Kentwood)

2002 Results
Bill Hardiman – 53.93%
Steve Pestka – 44.63%

Presidential results:
Bush – 49.92%
Kerry – 49.06%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Slightly leans Republican

District covers:
Kent County – Cascade Township, Grand Rapids, Grattan Township, Kentwood, Lowell,
Lowell Township, Vergennes Township.

The redistricters were nice to the democrats here giving them a swing seat not only by keeping all of Grand Rapids together, but by not extending this towards the southwest part of the county which is 70%+ Republican. This is a swing district, which I only have leaning Republican due to incumbency. Bill Hardiman won this open seat in 2002 by defeating a popular moderate democrat state rep in Steve Pestka. Grand Rapids has become more democrat since then, so I expect the dems to take a shot at this district again. This time, they are running David LaGrand, an attorney.

2/3 of the district is the City of Grand Rapids. It has gone from 50.42% Democrat in 2000 to 50.30% Democrat in 2002 to 55.30% democrat in 2004. I think much of that has to do with the war, but will it be sustained at 55% or go back to being 50-51% democrat? Grand Rapids is also heavily minority with large black and Mexican populations. Hardiman ran ahead of the ticket in 2002 due to inroads with blacks. Will he be able to do the same in 2006? We’ll see.

This is a district I’m keeping an eye on. I expect the democrats to contest this district. I’ll leave it leaning republican for now, but this could be a tossup in the future.

State Senate - District 28

State Senate - District 28

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Scott Harvey (Belmont), Mark Jansen (Grand Rapids), James Koetje (Grandville), Joanne Voorhees (Wyoming)
Democrat Candidates – Albert Abbassee (Byron Center)
Current Rep – Ken Sikkema (R-Wyoming)

2002 Results
Ken Sikkema – 66.08%
Michelle Berry – 33.92%

Presidential results:
Bush – 65.21%
Kerry – 33.89%


Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
Kent County: Ada Township, Algome Township, Alpine Township, Bowne Township,
Byron Township, Caledonia Township, Cannon Township, Cedar Springs, Courtland Township, East Grand Rapids, Gaines Township, Grand Rapids Township, Nelson Township, Oakfield Township, Plainfield Township, Rockford, Solon Township,
Spencer Township, Tyrone Township, Walker, Wyoming

This district covers most of Kent County outside of the City of Grand Rapids. It is the second most Republican district in the state, behind the Ottawa County based district. Ken Sikkema is the Senate Majority Leader, and he’s termed out leaving an open seat.

The primary is the big race here. No area really dominates the district, but Wyoming has 1/5 of the voters, so there is a geographic advantage in that area. There are several strong candidates running here, including current or former state reps Mark Jansen, Joanne Voorhees, and James Koetje. I do not know anything about Scott Harvey, but I’m on the east side of the state, so I’m not as informed about the Grand Rapids area as some others are.

Whoever wins the GOP primary should win easily. The only democrat leaning area in Kent County is the City of Grand Rapids itself, and that’s in another district.

State Senate - District 27

State Senate - District 27

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Adam Ford (Flint), Bob Longlois (Linden)
Democrat Candidates – Floyd Clack (Flint), Candice Curtis (Swartz Creek), John Gleason (Flushing), Jack Minore (Flint), Patsy Lou Williamson (Flint), Carolyn Yuille (Lennon)

Current Rep – Bob Emerson (D-Flint)

2002 Results
Bob Emerson – 66.08%
Cynthia O’Lear – 33.92%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 63.43%
Bush – 35.84%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
Genesee County - Argentine Township, Clayton Township, Fenton, Fenton Township,
Flint, Flint Township, Flushing, Flushing Township, Gaines Township, Genesee Township, Linden, Montrose, Montrose Township, Mundy Township, Swartz Creek

This district covers most of western and central Genesee County, including Flint. There are Republican pockets here, but Flint is 83% democrat and is almost 40% of the district. Another 1/5 of the district is Flint and Genesee Townships, and they are also 60%+ democrat. That’s over ½ of the district and puts this out of reach. There are swing areas (Flushing, Gaines Township, Mundy Township) and Republican areas in this district (Fenton and Linden), but not enough to make this competitive.

That said, there is a bigtime primary on the democrat side with several bigname candidates. John Gleason is a moderate state rep from Flushing. Floyd Clack is a former state rep from North Flint who will get a lot of the black vote. Jack Minore is a former state rep from the white part of Flint. Patsy Lou Williamson I believe owns a Buick Dealership and holds a local office there.

I’d like to see Gleason win the primary since he’s more pro-2nd amendment. Jack Minore is even more leftist than I am right-wing so that would be the worst case scenario. Anything can happen in a six way primary, so I can’t count any of them out.

Wednesday, April 27, 2005

State Senate - District 26

State Senate - District 26

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Brian Seiferlein (Waterford)
Democrat Candidates – Deborah Cherry (Burton), Wanda Lawrence (Mt Morris)

Current Rep – Deborah Cherry (D-Burton)

2002 Results
Deborah Cherry – 55.85%
John Muller – 44.15%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 49.86%
Bush – 49.29%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Strongly leans Democrat

District covers:
Genesee County - Atlas Township, Burton , Clio, Davison, Davison Township, Forest Township, Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc Township, Mt Morris, Mount Morris Township,
Richfield Township, Thetford Township, Vienna Township

Oakland County – Brandon Township, Groveland Township, Springfield Township,
Waterford Township.

This one caught everyone by surprise in 2002. Most people did not think this would turn into a 50/50 district. Everyone thought that this was a safe district for Deb Cherry who had a barely uncontested race. She lost the Oakland County part of the district and won with 55.85% overall. So how did this district become competitive?

The Genesee County part of the district is 54.95% democrat. That’s solid, but not like it used to be. The GOP has improved there, especially in the southern tier, which is fast growing. The Oakland County part of the district is 56.93% Republican. Waterford has moved to the right in recent years and went 54.20% for Bush. The other three townships went 60%+ for Bush. 2/3 of the District is in Genesee County, which favors Cherry.

Over in Genesee County, Bush won three municipalities and lost ten. Most of these were rural areas with Flint commuters. Clio (Which won’t be close with a Cherry running), Forest, Richfield, Therford, and Vienna Townships are fairly small areas. Davison is close enough to be winnable now, despite if being Michael Moore’s hometown. The big killers for us here are Burton and Mt Morris Township. Burton is similar to a big Downriver Wayne County suburb. It is a union stronghold with many economic populist and social conservative democrats. It went 58.40% for Kerry, which is actually lower than its customary 60% democrat levels. Mt Morris Township is basically Flint’s North Side. It’s 75.74% democrat and won’t be voting for us anytime soon.
The three GOP voting areas of this district are Atlas Township and Grand Blanc. Atlas is solid, and Grand Blanc is the big key. It’s fast growing and has narrowly been voting Republican lately. If the GOP makes some more gains here as they have been, this district is winnable. The democrat areas like Burton are shrinking in population. This is a sleeper district than needs to be watched and has some upset potential.

That said, while there is upset potential here, this district is Deb Cherry’s race to lose, and I expect her to win. Her brother John Cherry held this seat before her, and Deb (a state rep beforehand) kept it in the family. John’s the Lt Governor and will do whatever he can to help his sister.

That said, I expect a major battle here in 2010 when Deb Cherry is term limited out. Dave Robertson, a current state rep from Grand Blanc has a great chance to win this district if he runs for it.

State Senate - District 25

State Senate - District 25

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Jud Gilbert (Algonac)
Democrat Candidates – Gary Orr (Marysville)

Current Rep – Jud Gilbert (R-Algonac)

2002 Results
Jud Gilbert – 55.93%
Thomas Hamilton – 35.71%

Presidential results:
Bush – 55.13%
Kerry – 43.80%


Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
Lapeer and St Clair Counties

I slightly hesitated before moving this to Safe Republican as this is a very populist district, but demographics and cultural issues are working to the GOP’s favor here. Lapeer County is rapidly moving towards the right. It went 58.98 in 2002 and 57.89 in 2004. In 2000, it went 54.66% for Bush. St Clair is also moving to the right. It went from 49.00% in 2000 to 52.76% in 2002 to 53.60% in 2004. About 60% of the voters are in St Clair County, with the rest in Lapeer. That gives this a GOP leaning that is become stronger. Gilbert won a few tough state rep races in St Clair County beforehand, and was contested in 2002 for this seat. He won by the same margin Bush won the district in 2004. The Second Amendment is a huge issue in this district. St Clair County is one of the most active pro-2nd Amendment Counties in the state.

In 2004, democrats only won Marathon Township in Lapeer County. In St Clair County, they won Marine City, Port Huron, and Port Huron Township. Port Huron leans democrat, but isn’t as democrat as most core cities at 55%.

This district is winnable for the democrats, but not in the current state where the democrat party is dominated by cultural liberals and gun grabbers. As Gilbert is strong on those issues, I’m leaving this as safe republican for now.

State Senate - District 24

State Senate - District 24

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Patricia Birkholz (Saugatuck)
Democrat Candidates – Suzzette Royston (Charlotte)

Current Rep – Patricia Birkholz (R-Saugatuck)

2002 Results
Patricia Birkholz – 64.29%
Tami Birdson – 35.71%

Presidential results:
Bush – 58.91%
Kerry – 40.07%


Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
All of Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties.

This district starts off at the Lake Michigan Coast, and runs eastward to the Lansing City Limits. It is a solid Republican district. Allegan County went 63.11% for Bush and Barry County went 61.57% for Bush. Those two areas combined are slightly over 60% of the district. Eaton County is the largest part of the district, and it too went for Bush, although with 53.41%. Eaton County is erratic voting for people on all parts of the political spectrum. They voted for Sue Tabor, but also for Granholm. They also voted for Bush and Joe Schwarz. It’s one of the harder counties for me to predict.

While Kerry broke 40% here, the only municipalities Bush lost were Lee Township and Saugatuck in Allegan County, as well as the portion of Lansing in Eaton County. Lee Township has more minorities than much of the rest of the county. Saugatuck is a liberal and gay friendly area on Lake Michigan. The portion of Lansing in Eaton County is much more democrat than the portion of Lansing in Ingham County due to more minorities and more apartment complexes.

This will not be going democrat anytime soon, even if the dems win Eaton County. Barry and Allegan Counties will carry the GOP here.

State Senate - District 23

State Senate - District 23

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Frank Lambert (Haslett)
Democrat Candidates – Gretchen Whitmer (East Lansing)

Current Rep – Gretchen Whitmer( D-East Lansing)

2005 Results (Special Election)
Gretchen Whitmer – 75%+
Vince Green – 20%

2002 Results
Virg Bernero – 53.36%
Paul DeWeese – 46.64%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 59.01%
Bush – 39.89%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
Ingham County – Alaiedon Township, Aurelius Township, Delhi Township (Holt), East Lansing, Ingham Township, Lansing, Lansing Township, Leroy Township, Locke Township, Meridian Township, Onondaga Township, Wheatfield Township, White Oak Township, Williamston, Williamstown Twp

The redistricters gave a present to Ingham County Democrats. If Republicans wanted to be as mean on redistricting as they wanted to be, they could have split Meridian Township and East Lansing away from Lansing, and place it in a district with Livingston County. Instead some GOP leaning areas of Ingham County were given to Valde Garcia, making this a safe district.

Over 1/2 of this district's voters are in Lansing and East Lansing which are about 65% and 70% democrat. Over 1/2 of the rest are in Delhi and Meridian Townships. Meridian Township is now also for the most part solidly democrat(Although Mike Rogers sometimes wins there). Delhi has moved slightly to the right, but still sometimes goes democrat. The only way a Republican can win here is by running big numbers up in rural areas, stealing Meridian and Delhi and Lansing Township, and not lose too badly in Lansing and East Lansing. That hasn't been done since the 1980's. This district used to be Stabenow's seat.

Paul DeWeese gave it a good run in 2002, but the partisan numbers were too much. As much as this district went to Kerry, it went even more to Granholm as the state workers here did not like John Engler, taking it out in Posthumus. DeWeese got a lot of ticket splitters and even won Meridian Township, but Lansing and East Lansing was too much to handle.

The current rep is Gretchen Whitmer, a Blue Cross/Blue Shield heir from East Lansing. She was a state rep before this year and ran for Virg Bernero’s seat when he resigned to become Lansing Mayor. Whitmer caught a break as she did not have to face a primary candidate from Lansing or Holt pitting the blue-collar wing of the democrats against the rich leftist and academia crowd (Abortion on demand, ban all guns, raise taxes), which Whitmer represents.

This was briefly contested in 2005 in a special election (where anything can happen), but Vince Green had some tax related skeletons. Once that came out, everything just self destructed, and we all had some egg on our faces. Special elections have low turnouts which can make normally non-contested races contested. In normal turnouts, this district is safe democrat barring a disaster.

Unfortunately, it will take a miracle to win. It is too bad since Whitmer’s done literally nothing for Michigan State during the time I was there.

Saturday, April 23, 2005

State Senate - District 22

State Senate - District 22

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Valde Garcia (Howell/Marion Township), Barton Hellmuth (Genoa Township)
Democrat Candidates – Donna Anderson (Brighton)

Current Rep – Valde Garcia (R-Howell)

2002 Results
Valde Garcia – 68.23%
Jim Swonk – 31.77%

Presidential results:
Bush – 59.67%
Kerry – 39.37%


Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
All of Livingston and Shiawassee Counties.
Ingham County - Bunker Hill Township, Mason, Leslie, Leslie Township, Vevay Township, Stockbridge Township

This district is the safest GOP district in Southeast Michigan. 2/3 of the district is in Livingston County, which went 62.79% for Bush. The Ingham County portion is small with 11,000 votes and went 55.40% for Bush. Shiawassee County is taking a right turn from its slightly democrat roots and went 52.95% for Bush. They will vote for socially conservative democrats, but not anti-gunners or pro-abortion liberals. Ingham is more liberal, but too small to make a difference in this district.

Valde Garcia won all areas of the district big in 2002 and will probably do so again.

Barton Hellmuth will not be a threat to Valde in the primary. Hellmuth recently said in the Argus that he would not take any contributions for his race. That means unless he spends at least $30,000 of his own money or hits 20,000+ doors, he is not going to have a chance to win. Valde is also a good campaigner who is active in the community.

As for Anderson, she organized a moveon.org anti-war rally here last year. While there are varying opinions on the war, these anti-war marches do nothing to help our troops – especially when the purpose of these rallies are for moveon.org democrats to try and score cheap political points with Bush. These marches would not happen if a democrat were president.

Moveon.org also has a strong gun grabbing agenda. http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9595_22-514518.html and strong pro-abortion agenda - http://political.moveon.org/roberts/info.html That may work in parts of Wayne County, but this isn’t Wayne County.

I’m calling this one safe for Valde Garcia – in the 70%+ range.

State Senate - District 21

State Senate - District 21

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Ron Jelinek (Three Oaks)
Democrat Candidates – Valerie Janowski (Dowagiac)

Current Rep – Ron Jelinek (R-Portage)

2002 Results
Ron Jelinek – 64.81%
Art Toy – 35.19%

Presidential results:
Bush – 54.72%
Kerry – 44.28%


Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
All of Berrien, Cass, and Van Buren Counties outside of Antwerp and Paw Paw Townships

Outside of the Benton Harbor area in Berrien County, Dowagiac in Cass County, and Covert/South Haven in Van Buren County, this is a fairly solid GOP district. About 60% of the district is in Berrien County, which would be 60% GOP+ without Benton Harbor/Township (95% and 70% democrat). It still is 55% GOP despite Benton Harbor. Cass County is solidly GOP, and Van Buren County is very marginal GOP, but has only ¼ of the vote.

This is a safe district unless proven otherwise for Ron Jelinek, who won big here four years ago. There aren’t enough democrats in Benton Harbor to make up for St Joe, Lincoln Twp, and Coloma.

State Senate - District 20

State Senate - District 20

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Tom George (Portage)
Democrat Candidates – Alexander Lipsey (Kalamazoo)

Current Rep – Tom George (R-Portage)

2002 Results
Tom George – 56.53%
Ed LaForge – 43.47%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 51.04%
Bush – 47.96%


Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Slightly Leans Republican

District covers:
All of Kalamazoo County
Van Buren County – Antwerp and Paw Paw Townships

The district covers all of Kalamazoo and Paw Paw and Antwerp Townships in Van Buren County.

This is almost a reverse effect of District 19, the Schauer district. This is a 51% Kerry district, so we could have a race here. Tom George is a very strong incumbent who won big in 2002 against a good candidate in Ed LaForge. Unlike Schauer, George did not dodge a bullet and has to face another state rep in Alexander Lipsey. George beat LaForge handily, so he knows how to win tough campaigns.

Lipsey originally was running for Attorney General, but was talked into running for senate instead. He has a strong Kalamazoo City base. Tom George has a base in Portage. Kalamazoo County leans slightly democrat at the top of the ticket due to the city, but the county is republican leaning outside of the city. If George gets enough suburban vote out in a non-presidential year, he should win. If Western Michigan University repeats its performance of 2004, George is in big trouble.

Like Schauer’s district, I’m calling it slightly leaning towards the incumbent, but this one will be a big battle.

State Senate - District 19

State Senate - District 19

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Al Cavasin (Concord), Elizabeth Fulton (Battle Creek)
Democrat Candidates – Mark Schauer (Battle Creek)

Current Rep – Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek)

2002 Results
Mark Schauer – 55.14%
Mickey Mortimer – 44.86%

Presidential results:
Bush – 53.00%
Kerry – 45.94%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Slightly Leans Democrat

District covers:
All of Calhoun County
Jackson County – Blackman Township, Columbia Township, Concord Township,
Hanover Township, Henrietta Township, Jackson, Liberty Township, Napolean Township, Parma Township, Pulaski Township, Rives Township,
Sandstone Township, Spring Arbor Township, Springport Township, Tompkins Township, Waterloo Township

This is a 53% Bush district, so we could have a race here. That said, Mark Schauer is a very strong incumbent who won big in 2002 against a good candidate in Mickey Mortimer. I am not familiar with either Cavasin or Fulton, so I do not know how strong of a candidate we have there. Schauer may have dodged a bullet with Mike Nofs running for re-election instead of challenging Schauer.

Calhoun County is a true swing county voting for Granholm, Schauer, and Gore on one hand, and Bush, Mike Nofs, and Joe Schwarz on the other. Jackson County (outside of the City) is reliably Republican, although narrowly. Summit Township and Grass Lake are not in this district either, so that advantages the democrats.

Schauer will be tough to beat, but this could be a real sleeper race this November if one of the two republican candidates catches fire. John Kerry couldn’t break 46% here, so it is certainly winnable. For now, this slightly leans democrat based on my own name recognition.

State Senate - District 18

State Senate - District 18

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – John Kopinzski (Ann Arbor)
Democrat Candidates – Liz Brater (Ann Arbor)

Current Rep – Liz Brater (D-Ann Arbor)

2002 Results
Liz Brater – 63.54%
Gordon Darr – 33.30%

Presidential results:
Bush – 32.52%
Kerry – 66.38%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
Washtenaw County – Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Township, Augusta Township, Chelsea,
Dexter Township, Freedom Township, Lima Township, Lyndon Township, Northfield Township, Pittsfield Township (Precinct 5/801), Salem Township, Scio Township, Sharon Township, Superior Township, Sylvan Township, Webster Township,
Ypsilanti, Ypsilanti Township.

If this seat goes Republican, this Spartan graduate will buy a Michigan football jersey and wear it in Spartan Stadium. This is one of the most liberal districts in the state, only rivaling state senate district 14 in Southeastern Oakland County. Some districts are more democrat, but none are more liberal outside of the Gilda Jacobs seat.

Ann Arbor combined with neighboring Scio Township dominates this seat with about 50% of the district. The Ypsilanti area has about 30% of the district. That alone makes this a safe 65% district for the democrats. Liz Brater is too leftist to get elected in most places, but this isn’t most places. It will take a miracle for the GOP to win.

State Senate - District 17

State Senate - District 17

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Randy Richardville (Monroe), Owen Diaz (Milan)
Democrat Candidates – Bob Schockman (Temperence)

Current Rep – Bev Hammerstrom (R-Temperence)

2002 Results
Bev Hammerstrom – 59.67%
Sharon LeMasters – 40.33%

Presidential results:
Bush – 50.89%
Kerry – 48.26%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Slightly leans GOP

District covers:
All of Monroe County

Jackson County – Grass Lake Township, Leoni Township, Norvell Township, Summit Township

Washtenaw County – Bridgewater Township, Lodi Township, Manchester Township, Milan Township, Most of Pittsfield Township, Saline, Saline Township, York Township.

This is a 50/50 district that may become a tossup seat. The GOP caught a break as we were able to recruit our best candidate in Randy Richardville. Richardville won three times in a democrat leaning district based in the City of Monroe. The democrats are running Bob Schockman – the Bedford Township Clerk.

Bush lost Monroe County in 2000 and won it with 50.54% in 2004. He won the Jackson portion (24230 votes) with 54.92%. John Kerry won the Washtenaw portion (34531 votes) with approximately (Pittsfield was split between this and the Ann Arbor district) 50.20%.

Monroe County is the big key as it is over ½ of the district. The Jackson County portion is key for the GOP, and the Washtenaw County portion is key for the dems. The GOP needs to run up big margins in Summit Township, and the dems need to do the same in Pittsfield Township for a win.

Name recognition and experience favors Richardville which is why I give him a slight edge, for now. This will still be a very tough race.

State Senate - District 16

State Senate - District 16

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Cameron Brown
Democrat Candidates – Timothy Christner

Current Rep – Cameron Brown (R-Sturgis)

2002 Results
Cameron Brown – 60.47%
Dudley Spade – 37.07%

Presidential results:
Bush – 58.50%
Kerry – 40.35%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
All of Branch, St Joseph, Hillsdale, and Lenawee Counties

This district covers much of rural South Central Michigan. It stretches from the Tecumseh/Adrian area just West of Dundee and Monroe to Sturgis and Three Rivers south of Kalamazoo. It is solidly Republican, with all counties going to Bush in 2000 and 2004. All except Lenawee were over 60% Bush in 2004. Lenawee has about 40% of the voters, with the GOP strongholds having 60% of the voters.

Cameron Brown defeated Dudley Spade (now state rep for most of Lenawee County) in 2002 by a large margin, winning all except Lenawee County. If a Spade cannot win here, then there is almost no chance at all for the dems, even if they win Lenawee County big. There are just too many Republicans in the other three counties.

State Senate - District 15

State Senate - District 15

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Nancy Cassis (Novi), Christopher Patrick Maloney (Northville)
Democrat Candidates – Ray Raczkowski (Novi)

Current Rep – Nancy Cassis (R-Novi)

2002 Results
Nancy Cassis – 60.47%
Sean Carlson – 37.07%

Presidential results:
Bush – 55.56%
Kerry – 43.56%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
Oakland County: - Commerce Township, Highland Township, Holly Township, Lyon Township, Milford Township, Northville, Novi, Novi Township, Orchard Lake,
Rose Township, South Lyon, Walled Lake, West Bloomfield Township, White Lake Township, Wixom

This district covers most of Western Oakland County and has some of the most GOP areas of the county in Highland, Milford, and Lyon Twp(all 62%+ GOP). Those three areas are part of Oakland County, but have politics more in line with Livingston County than the political pundits description of Oakland County which has places like Farmington Hills in mind.

Most of this district took a right turn, but not all of it. Holly and Rose Township have taken right turns recently after being more friendly to democrats (due to their proximity to Genesee County) in the past. Holly flipped, and both Holly and Rose gained 5% for Bush between 2000 and 2004. The Livingston border areas all moved right. Rose, Highland, Milford, and Lyon Townships all gained at least 2.5% for Bush, most gained 4% or more. White Lake next to Highland also gained 4½% Commerce next to White Lake and Milford gained 3%. Walled Lake flipped from Gore to Bush with a 3% gain. Solidly democrat West Bloomfield stayed democrat, but Bush gained 2% there over his 2000 numbers.

The left turns came in Northville, Orchard Lake Wixom and Novi. Bush lost 3½ % in Northville (Dems gained 4%) and stayed about the same in Novi (While the dems gained almost 2%). Novi and Northville are becoming more urbanized, and their proximity to Farmington Hills is influencing their politics. Both parties gained in Wixom, but the dems more than the GOP. Wixom has a large apartment community, which probably accounts of much of the gains for the dems. Orchard Lake was a 4% gain for the democrats and 1½ for Bush. Orchard Lake is closer to the Bloomfields where Bush lost much of his ground in Oakland as the affluent moved more towards the democrats while middle class moved more towards the GOP.

Overall, this is a solid GOP district. Only West Bloomfield went democrat in 2004, and most of the rest of the district is still mostly GOP strongholds, even the areas where the GOP lost ground. Holly and Walled Lake were narrowing democrat in 2000, but moved toward the right and flipped in 04. The fastest growing area is the Livingston borderlands, which all went 60%+ GOP. Nancy Cassis won with 60% in 2000, and will likely do so again in 2004.

State Senate - District 13

State Senate - District 13

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – John Pappageorge (Troy), Shelley Goodman Taub (Bloomfield Hills), Elizabeth Woolcock (Royal Oak)
Democrat Candidates – Andy Levin (Royal Oak)

Current Rep – Shirley Johnson (R-Royal Oak)

2002 Results
Shirley Johnson – 63.15%
Colleen Levitt – 36.85%

Presidential results:
Bush – 51.98%
Kerry – 47.01%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Tossup

District covers:
Oakland County: - Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Township, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy.

This is the most affluent district in the state. I have a bad feeling about this district. Originally, I was going to call it slightly leaning republican, but I’m going to just call this one a tossup. The democrats recruited probably the 2nd best candidate they could get. (David Woodward would be the strongest)

This is an open seat vacated by Shirley Johnson. The Democrats smell blood here with the 2000 vs 2004 trends, especially in this part of Oakland County. While Bush actually gained overall in Oakland County, it was not the case in this district. Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Township, Bloomfield Hills, Troy, and especially Royal Oak all took leftist swings in 2004. Only Madison Heights and Clawson (which flipped to Bush in 04) moved to the right.

They recruited a candidate with a golden last name in this part of Oakland County. Andy Levin is Sander Levin’s son. Levin has a free pass in the primary. The GOP primary is a three way battle between former rep John Pappageorge, current rep Shelley Goodman Taub, and Elizabeth Woolcock. State Rep Bob Gosselin was in, but withdrew from the race.

There is a large RINO population here, so there are two keys here. Who can gain enough conservative and moderate votes here without irking the RINOS? Who can gain enough RINO votes here without irking the conservatives and moderates? It is a balancing act, and whoever wins the primary needs to strike the right balance. Personally, I would run a libertarian leaning candidate here, and take my chances with the gun grabbers and “municipal league” types. That will not alienate the pro-2a and fiscal conservatives, and may pick up most of the moderates in this current political climate.

This will be a very tough race this year.

State Senate - District 12

State Senate - District 12

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Mike Bishop (Rochester)
Democrat Candidates – Joseph Barrera (Lake Orion)

Current Rep – Mike Bishop (R-Rochester)

2002 Results
Mike Bishop – 62.74%
Thomas Werth – 37.26%

Presidential results:
Bush – 53.80%
Kerry – 45.28%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
Oakland County: - Addison Township, Auburn Hills, Clarkston, Independence Township, Keego Harbor, Lake Angelus, Oakland Township, Orion Township
Oxford Township, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Sylvan Lake

This district has a very strong Republican lean and is not as close as it seems. Pontiac kept Bush from a 10%+ win here, but the numbers elsewhere keep this district solid. There are only three areas here, which voted for John Kerry - Auburn Hills, Pontiac, and Keego Harbor. Pontiac is the democrat stronghold here and has the second highest number of voters. It went 79.21% for John Kerry, giving him a 13,260 vote spread. Bush won the district overall by 11,957 votes.

Most of the rest of the district are Republican Strongholds. The largest community here is Rochester Hills, which went 58.51% for Bush. Its 7,162 vote spread is over ½ of Pontiac’s. Independence and Orion Townships combine have about the same number of voters as Rochester Hills. Between those two communities, Bush had about a 9,700 vote spread. Those three GOP strongholds combined not only cancel out Pontiac, but Auburn Hills and Keego Harbor as well. Addison, Oakand, and Oxford Townships are all 60%+ GOP strongholds and keep this district solidly Republican.

This district is safe for Mike Bishop, despite Pontiac

Friday, April 22, 2005

State Senate - District 14

State Senate - District 14

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Tara Bellingar (Farmington Hills)
Democrat Candidates – Gilda Jacobs (Huntington Woods)

Current Rep – Gilda Jacobs (D-Huntington Woods)

2002 Results
Gilda Jacobs – 68.40%
Mark Wilkins – 29.48%

Presidential results:
Bush – 32.79%
Kerry – 66.37%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
Oakland County: - Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak Township, Southfield,
Southfield Township (Bingham Farms, Frankin)

Overall, this is one of the two most left wing districts in the state. The other one is based in Ann Arbor. Oak Park, The City of Southfield, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township are mostly black. Farmington and Southfield Township are slightly GOP leaning. Farmington Hills is slightly democrat leaning. The rest are all democrat strongholds. Pleasant Ridge, Huntington Woods, and Ferndale are “Ann Arbor East.” Bush only won two municipalities here - Farmington and Southfield Township. The rest all went to the dems in a big way.

Southfield is the most democrat part of Oakland County and is the main reason why the county as a whole went democrat four of the last five elections. Kerry got 81.78% of the vote there, and won Southfield by 26,558 votes. Southfield is the main base and has slightly less than 1/3 of the vote. Farmington Hills is the other base of the district with slightly less than 1/3 of the vote. It used to be Republican, but has flipped to the dems.

The current state senator here is Gilda Jacobs who is a nightmare for gun owners. She won in 2002 and is running for re-election. It will take a miracle to win this district. This district is as safe for the democrats as Valde Garcia’s seat is safe for the GOP

State Senate - District 11

State Senate - District 11

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Alan Sanborn (Richmond)
Democrat Candidates – Kenneth Paul Jenkins (Macomb)

Current Rep – Alan Sanborn (R-Richmond)

2002 Results
Alan Sanborn – 67.94%
Jim Ayers – 32.06%

Presidential results:
Bush – 56.92%
Kerry – 42.19%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Republican

District covers:
Macomb County:
Armada Township, Bruce Township, Chesterfield Township, Harrison Township, Lenox Township, Macomb Township, Ray Township, Richmond Township. Shelby Township. Washington Township, Memphis City, Mount Clemens City, New Baltimore City, Richmond City.

This is the most Republican district in Macomb County covering almost all of Northern Macomb. The only democrat area here is Mount Clemens (and sometimes Lenox Twp, but not like it used to be), which is outvoted by the rest of the district. This is a strongly conservative district, especially on 2nd amendment and social issues and Sanborn fits the district well. This area will likely be more republican in the future.

Saturday, April 02, 2005

State Senate - District 10

State Senate - District 10

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – John Horton (Clinton Township)
Democrat Candidates – Michael Switalski (Roseville)

Current Rep – Michael Switalski (D-Roseville)

2002 Results
Michael Switalski – 53.04%
Steve Rice – 45.12%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 50.38%
Bush – 48.61%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Strongly Leans Democrat

District covers:
Macomb County:
Clinton Township, Roseville, Sterling Heights, and Utica

I’d like to know what the redistricters were thinking here. Roseville should not have been added to what otherwise is a marginally Republican District. Now it is a marginally democrat district, and one perfect for Switalski, who always ran ahead of most other democrats. Clinton Township is a swing area that went for Gore, Posthumus, and Kerry. Roseville is a democrat stronghold going 59% for Kerry. Sterling Heights and Utica are marginally Republican areas.

This district is winnable for each party, but it will be an uphill battle with Switalski running for re-election. He is possibly the strongest democrat in the county, and that makes this a difficult, although by no means impossible race for the GOP to win.

State Senate - District 9

State Senate - District 9

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Jeremy Nielson (St Clair Shores)
Democrat Candidates – Dennis Olshove (Warren)

Current Rep – Dennis Olshove (D-Warren)

2002 Results
Dennis Olshove – 60.82%
Cecelia Stevens – 36.52%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 54.56%
Bush – 44.29%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
Macomb County:
Lake Twp, Center Line, Eastpointe, Fraser, St Clair Shores, Warren

This district covers most of the democrat strongholds in Macomb County. About ½ of the voters are in Warren. About ¼ of the voters are in St Clair Shores. The rest are divided between Lake Twp, Eastpointe, Fraser, and Center Line. Eastpointe is the most democrat part of the county. Lake Twp is the most republican part of the county by percentage, but has less than 50 voters. Fraser and St Clair Shores are competitive. Warren and Center Line are democrat strongholds, but not quite to the same degree they once were. This district is still more democrat at the local level than national level. They prefer socially moderate and economically liberal democrats here compared to an Ann Arbor style of democrat.

This district has been democrat for years. Currently it is held by Dennis Olshove from Warren. It isn’t impossible to win here, but extremely difficult, and unless Jack Brandenberg runs here, I’m calling it safe democrat until proven otherwise.

State Senate - District 8

State Senate - District 8

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Fred Kalsic (Taylor), Guy Addison Rupert (Southgate)
Democrat Candidates – Raymond Basham (Taylor)

Current Rep – Raymond Basham (D-Taylor)

2002 Results
Raymond Basham – 64.22%
Pamela Montelauro – 32.39%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 61.07%
Bush – 38.00%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat

District covers:
Wayne County:
Allen Park, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Romulus, Taylor, Southgate, Wayne Wyandotte

This is a district combining the most democrat parts of Downriver with most of the “Metro Airport” region. It is heavily union and thus, democrat. Allen Park and Riverview are sometimes competitive, although they both lean democrat. The rest of the municipalities are not even close and 58% or more democrat on a consistent basis.

Ray Basham is running for re-election and will win again, barring a disaster.

State Senate - District 7

State Senate - District 7

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Bruce Patterson (Canton)
Democrat Candidates – Mark Slavens (Canton)

Current Rep – Bruce Patterson (R-Canton)

2002 Results
Bruce Patterson – 56.32%
George Mans – 43.68%

Presidential results:
Bush – 50.63%
Kerry – 48.14%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Leans Republican

District covers:
Wayne County:
Belleville, Brownstown Township, Canton Township, Flat Rock, Gibraltar, Grosse Ile, Huron Township, Northville City(Wayne County), Northville Township, Plymouth City and Township, Rockwood, Sumpter Township, Trenton, Van Buren Township, Woodhaven

This is an “L” shaped district on the outer edge of Wayne County. It covers the western Detroit suburbs, part of the “Metro Airport” area, and the Southern most “Downriver” suburbs. Eight municipalities went for John Kerry. Six went for President Bush. It is a competitive district with a good number of conservative republicans, liberal republicans, populist democrats, and some Ann Arbor type Liberals.

The Republican base of this district is Northville and Plymouth. Canton and Huron Township are competitive. Grosse Ile is the Republican base downriver. The democrat base of the district is near Metro Airport and Downriver. The former has more population than the latter, so there is a slight GOP leaning to the district.

The current incumbent is Bruce Patterson, who had a race that was much less competitive race than expected. Patterson defeated George Mans solidly, not only winning the areas President Bush won, but also took strongly democrat Belleville, Van Buren Township, and even Downriver’s Woodhaven near where George Mans lives.

Slightly over ¼ of the votes are in Canton Township where Patterson lives. Canton is slightly Republican leaning. Another ¼ of the votes are in Northville/Plymouth which strongly lean Republican (Despite being Granholm’s home), although by a lesser margin than they used to be. Slightly under 1/3 of the votes are from the Downriver area which is slightly democrat leaning, although also by a lesser margin than they used to be. The last 1/7 to 1/8 of the vote is the Metro Airport area, which is the most democrat, although Patterson actually won this in the last election due to the “homer factor” as Canton is closer to that area than Downriver.

Overall, this area leans slightly Republican due to the incumbency factor, but should be competitive.

State Senate - District 6

State Senate - District 6

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Laura Toy (Livonia)
Democrat Candidates – Glenn Anderson (Westland)

Current Rep – Laura Toy (R-Livonia)

2002 Results
Laura Toy – 54.16%
Eileen DeHart – 45.84%

Presidential results:
Kerry – 51.76%
Bush – 47.09%

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Slight edge to Republicans

District covers:
Wayne County:
Livonia, Garden City, Redford Township, and Westland

This is a very competitive district, and I would be calling this a toss-up if this were an open district. State Rep. Laura Toy won a tough race in 2002 against another state rep in Eileen DeHart. It became a “homer” race, which favors Laura Toy.

John Kerry did win the district, and took 44.64% in Livonia, 54.31% in Garden City, 57.44% in Redford, and 57.87% in Westland. DeHart took 61.69% in Westland and 54.98% in Garden City, but only 50.43% in Redford, and lost Livonia badly getting 33.58% there. Almost half of the 2002 votes came from Livonia, to Toy won by a solid margin. Toy also made major inroads into neighboring Redford, which has treaded democrat lately.

Westland was a larger percentage of the vote in 2004, and that factored into Kerry’s district win. Livonia was slightly over 1/3 of the vote there. Redford and Garden City combined for slightly less than 1/3 of the vote, and other “slightly less than 1/3” portion is Westland.

Due to Westland and Garden City being solidly democrat, and Redford’s increasingly democrat tilt, I expect the democrats to take another shot at this district. Livonia’s marginally GOP, and is the base of this district. I think Laura Toy will survive since she over performs here, but I am not taking this race for granted. Democrats have won Livonia before, especially at the local level. Granholm lives right next door to Livonia in Northville, so she is going to target this race.

Overall, there’s a slight edge to the Republicans here, but not by much. The dems are again going to Westland. This time Glenn Anderson, who is termed out as a state rep.

State Senate - District 5

State Senate - District 5

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – David Lawrence Malhalab (Detroit)
Democrat Candidates – Derrick Hale (Detroit), Janet Badalow (Dearborn Heights), Tupac Hunter (Detroit), Triette Reeves (Detroit)

Current Rep – Burton Leland (D-Detroit) – Term Limited

2002 Results
Burton Leland – 82.81%
Bonnie Patrick – 17.19%

Presidential results:
Approximately 85% for John Kerry

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:
Wayne County:
Dearborn Heights, Inkster, Part of Detroit

This is another Detroit based democrat district. Dearborn Heights is competitive at times but leans democrat. It was used as a bridge to another democrat stronghold of Inkster to pick up the mostly black voters there. Leland is termed out here.

This will be a strong primary race. No candidate are from Inkster, so that could be a major battleground.

State Senate - District 4

State Senate - District 4

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Karen Mastny Fobbs (Detroit)
Democrat Candidates – Samuel “Buzz” Thomas (Detroit), Richard Henry (Detroit), James Davis (Detroit)

Current Rep – Samuel “Buzz” Thomas (D-Detroit)

2002 Results
Samuel “Buzz” Thomas – 95.71%
Karen Mastney – 4.29%

Presidential results:
Approximately 95% for John Kerry

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:
Wayne County:
Part of Detroit

This is the most democrat district in the entire state. The district is entirely in the city of Detroit. The main battle is the democrat primary.

State Senate - District 3

State Senate - District 3

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Betty Garrett (Dearborn), Paul Sophiea (Dearborn)
Democrat Candidates – Irma Clark-Coleman (Detroit), Alex Shami (Dearborn), Alison Vaughn (Detroit), Keeth Williams (Detroit)

Current Rep – Irma Clark-Coleman (D-Detroit)

2002 Results
Irma Clark – 80.60%
Jose Hernandez III – 19.40%

Presidential results:
Approximately 80% for John Kerry

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:
Wayne County:
Dearborn, River Rouge, and Part of Detroit

This is a solid democrat Detroit based district. Dearborn can be competitive at times, and Hernandez almost won there. However, Detroit and River Rouge make this district so democrat that it is a miracle for a Republican to win. The primary is the major battle here.

State Senate - District 2

State Senate - District 2

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Michael Hoehn (Grosse Pointe)
Democrat Candidates – Martha Scott (Highland Park), Ernest Madison (Detroit), Bill McConico (Detroit), Sigmund Szczepkowski (Detroit)

Current Rep – Martha Scott (D-Detroit)

2002 Results
Martha Scott – 67.97%
Jeffrey Schroeder – 32.03%

Presidential results:
Approximately 70% for John Kerry

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:
Wayne County:
Highland Park, Hamtramck, Grosse Pointes, and Part of Detroit

This is a solid democrat district, as Highland Park, Hamtramck, and Detroit easily outvote the Grosse Pointes who are about 1/5 of the district’s population. This is the least democrat of the Detroit based districts, but that doesn’t mean it is very competitive.

The primary for the democrats should be competitive, especially between McConico and Scott.

State Senate - District 1

State Senate - District 1

2006 Contest
Republican Candidates – Cynthia Cassell (Grosse Pointe)
Democrat Candidates – Hansen Clarke (Detroit), LaMar Lemmons (Detroit), Martha Waters (Detroit)

Current Rep – Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit)

2002 Results
Hansen Clarke – 93.66%
Cynthia Cassell – 6.34%

Presidential results:
Approximately 93% for John Kerry

Republican Michigander’s prognosis – Safe Democrat.

District covers:
Wayne County:
Part of Detroit

This is the 2nd most democrat state senatorial district in the state, and is entirely in the City of Detroit. It would take a miracle to win here.

That said, it will be an interesting primary between two of Detroit's A-Team democrats. LaMar Lemmons and Hansen Clarke will have a tough primary.