Thursday, June 23, 2005

David Hamilton's take on Brighton Fire Authority

The format's messed up a little with the table, but I got this the best I could. David Hamilton is a former county commissioner and the chair of the Livingston Taxpayers' Association.

----------------------------------------------------------------
ANALYSIS OF
BRIGHTON FIRE AUTHORITY
MILLAGE INCREASE FROM 0.9532 MILLS TO 1.25 MILLS
AUGUST 8, 2006 BALLOT QUESTION
( 40% tax increase at stake! )

1. The Brighton Fire Authority is leading residents to believe that they aren’t receiving adequate resources because the millage levy of 1.0 mills originally authorized by voters in 2001 has been reduced by the Headlee Amendment to the current 2005 tax levy of 0.9532 mills. However, the table below shows clearly that the fire authority will receive a whopping 40% increase in property tax revenues if voters approve an increase to 1.25 mills this August.

Even with millage roll-backs, property tax revenues have been increasing at 2-3 times the annual inflation rate since the Fire Authority was formed in 2001.


















































































































Valuation
of
Property
tax
% increase % increase
Tax Millage** X Tax base = Revenues Over previous In revenues
Year Levy (thousands) Levied Year  Since 2001
x:str="2006* ">2006*   1.25 X 2,549,385.16 = $3,186,731 40.30% 86.20%
2005 0.9532 X   2,383,221.46 = $2,271,687 7.10% 32.70%
2004 0.9612 X 2,206,554.49 =  $2,120,940 8.50%
2003 0.9763 X 2,002,798.11 = $1,955,332 6.20%
2002 0.9906 X 1,858,382.38 = $1,840,914 7.60%
2001 1 X 1,711,522.83 = $1,711,523


*Assumes passage of the new 1.2500 mills levied against the est. 2006 taxable valuation. The 2006 Taxable Valuation confirmed with County Equalization Director on May 17, 2006.



** Source- Millage Levy Requests filed annually with the Livingston County Clerk

2. The Brighton Fire Authority is claiming that they need addition tax revenues to handle the growth in the fire district. Therefore, an analysis of the rate of population growth in the fire authority area should be in order.
(Format by me)

2006 population
Brighton City - 7282
Brighton Twp - 18789
Genoa Twp - 20128
Total - 46199

2000 population
Brighton City - 6701
Brighton Twp - 17673
Genoa Twp - 15901
Total - 40275

SUMMARY
The taxing area for the Brighton Fire Authority is composed of the City of Brighton, Brighton Township and Genoa Township. Figures shown above reveal that the property tax revenues for the authority have grown over 32 % in the last 4 years, while the population grew by only 14.7 % in about the same time period. With tax revenues growing twice as fast as the population it serves, the existing millage rate of 0.9532 mills appears more than adequate.

One of the primary reasons proponents argued for a fire authority back in 2001 was the efficiencies and economy of scale that would result in combining the operations of multiple fire departments.

Putnam Township voters recently approved renewal of their fire millage at the 2005 rolled back millage rate and Green Oak Township is placing public safety millage renewals on the August 2006 ballot at the 2005 rolled back millage rates. Those millage rates will still provide inflationary increases in future years.

Fire Authority officials will lead you to believe that increasing the millage from 0.95 mills to 1.25 mills is just a “modest” tax increase on its residents. However, the fire authority encompasses a large geographic area which has an enormous tax base valued at over 2.5 billion dollars. What seems like a small millage increase can generate a very large increase in property tax revenues.

It would appear that some of those promised “economies of scale” and a little old-fashioned cost containment may be in order.
David C. Hamilton

Saturday, June 11, 2005

Midland County

Midland County:
Location – Saginaw Valley
Population – 82,874 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 96.24% White, .10% Black, 2.27% American Indian, .21% Asian, .18% Some other Race, .98% Two or more races, .75% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Midland (pop 41,685)

Midland County is the GOP Base in the Saginaw Valley (Saginaw, Flint, Bay City, Midland area). It is the headquarters of Dow Chemical, as well as the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, which is one of Michigan’s premier think tanks. Midland is just west of Bay City.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
4th District – Dave Camp (R)

State Senators:
36th District – Tony Stamas (R)

State Representative:
98th District – John Moolenaar (R) – Homer, Ingersoll, Midland, and Mount Haley Townships, City of Midland.
99th District – Bill Caul (R) – Edenville, Geneva, Greendale, Hope, Jasper, Jerome, Larkin, Lee, Lincoln, Mills, Porter, and Warren Township, City of Coleman

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 73.58%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 26.42%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 76.58%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 22.23%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 57.50%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 42.50%

Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 92.54%, Dan Marsh (Libertarian) – 5.81%

State Senators:
35th District – Bill Schuette (R) – 76.07%, Brian Baldwin (D) – 23.93%

State Representative:
98th District – Tony Stamas (R) – 70.04%, Andrew Iwamasa (D) – 29.96%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 59.55%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 37.57%
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 73.98%, Lawrence Hollenbeck (D) – 23.43%

State Representative:
98th District – Tony Stamas (R) – 66.45%, – Rick Shook (D) – 33.55%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R)– 57.43%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 41.31%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 64.01%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 33.85%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 56.39%, Gary Peters (D) – 41.28%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 51.64%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 46.75%
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 72.09%, Lawrence Hollenbeck (D) – 26.52%

State Senate:
36th District – Tony Stamas (R) – 63.11%, Andrew Neumann (D) – 36.89%

State Representative:
98th District – John Moolenaar (R) – 69.03%, Lenny Lefevre (D) – 30.97%
99th District – Sandy Caul (R) – 59.93%, Justin Eastman (D) - 40.07%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 67.31%, Mike Huckleberry (D) – 31.87%

State Representative:
98th District – John Moolenaar (R) – 68.08%, Stacy Jones (D) – 31.92%
99th District – Bill Caul (R) – 63.27%, Sharon Stangle Tillman (D) – 36.73%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

MIDLAND COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 21887 (56.28%), Gore – 15959 (41.04%)
2004 – Bush – 24369 (56.31%), Kerry – 18355 (42.41%)

Coleman City
2000 - 236 (48.26%), 240 (49.08%)
2004 – 259 (48.78%), 263 (49.53%)

Edenville Township
2000 - 574 (51.39%), 508 (45.48%)
2004 – 734 (55.82%), 570 (43.35%)

Geneva Township
2000 - 236 (49.37%), 226 (47.28%)
2004 – 282 (52.42%), 247 (45.91%)

Greendale Township
2000 - 295 (51.66%), 258 (45.18%)
2004 – 414 (56.95%), 304 (41.82%)

Homer Township
2000 - 1088 (55.03%), 840 (42.49%)
2004 – 1229 (56.38%), 916 (42.02%)

Hope Township
2000 - 353 (54.39%), 280 (43.14%)
2004 – 413 (55.36%), 323 (43.30%)

Ingersoll Township
2000 - 715 (53.20%), 586 (43.60%)
2004 – 853 (56.64%), 628 (41.70%)

Jasper Township
2000 - 204 (51.26%), 184 (46.23%)
2004 – 248 (50.82%), 231 (47.34%)

Jerome Township
2000 - 1148 (51.99%), 990 (44.84%)
2004 – 1345 (53.61%), 1132 (45.12%)

Larkin Township
2000 - 1595 (67.33%), 718 (30.31%)
2004 – 1820 (66.94%), 874 (32.14%)

Lee Township
2000 - 760 (52.41%), 648 (44.69%)
2004 – 882 (52.38%), 771 (45.78%)

Lincoln Township
2000 - 586 (56.24%), 439 (42.13%)
2004 – 726 (55.59%), 555 (42.50%)

Midland City
2000 - 11916 (57.49%), 8261 (39.86%)
2004 – 12646 (56.55%), 9461 (42.30%)

Midland Township
2000 - 621 (55.50%), 475 (42.45%)
2004 – 709 (57.13%), 516 (41.68%)

Mills Township
2000 - 387 (49.11%), 384 (48.73%)
2004 – 429 (48.20%), 445 (50.00%)

Mount Haley Township
2000 - 440 (55.42%), 332 (41.81%)
2004 – 523 (55.52%), 403 (42.78%)

Porter Township
2000 - 255 (54.72%), 198 (42.49%)
2004 – 317 (53.73%), 268 (45.42%)

Warren Township
2000 - 478 (53.41%), 392 (43.80%)
2004 – 535 (53.82%), 448 (45.07%)

There was little difference between 2000 and 2004 in Midland, although the democrats gained slightly, mostly in the city of Midland. Mills Township flipped, but Bush won it by only three votes in 2004. This is still a solid GOP county.

Redistricting split the state rep districts in Midland County. The 98th district has part of Northern Saginaw County as well as Eastern Midland County, including the City. The 99th is a Mt Pleasant based district changed to make is slightly more GOP than the old Isabella/Clare county district. It now has Western Midland County in it. The state senate district is very competitive now. It was reshaped into a North/Northeastern MI district which covers ten counties. Midland carried the day for Stamas in 02, who won the district overall with 51%.

Menominee County

Menominee County:
Location – UP
Population – 25,326 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 96.24% White, .10% Black, 2.27% American Indian, .21% Asian, .18% Some other Race, .98% Two or more races, .75% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Menominee (pop 9,131)

Menominee County is a competitive county in the UP. It is on the Wisconsin border, and is closer to Chicago than Detroit. It is slightly more GOP than most of the UP, with the major exception being the Stupaks who are from Menominee. They still prefer socially conservative democrats to most republicans.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D)

State Senators:
38th District – Michael Prusi (D)

State Representative:
108th District – Tom Casperson (R)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 65.70%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 34.30%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 67.37%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 31.03%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 51.10%, John Smietanka (R) – 48.90%

Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 68.67%, Michelle McManus (R) – 30.17%

State Senators:
38th District – Don Koivisto (D) – 66.49%, Patricia Ashcraft (R) – 31.98%

State Representative:
108th District – Doug Bovin (D) – 53.12%, Matt Minor (R) – 46.88%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 54.06%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 43.08%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 68.30%, Chuck Yob (R) – 30.82%

State Representative:
108th District – Doug Bovin (D) – 70.78%, – Dennis Pape (R) – 29.22%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 50.83%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 47.41%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 55.77%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 41.61%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 49.69%, Gary Peters (D) – 46.38%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 60.05%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 38.17%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 70.53%, Don Hooper (R) – 28.56%

State Senate:
38th District – Michael Prusi (D) – 52.02%, David Schoenow (R) – 47.98%

State Representative:
108th District – Laurie Stupak (D) – 52.48%, Tom Casperson (R) – 47.52%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 72.44%, Don Hooper (R) – 26.64%

State Representative:
108th District – Tom Casperson (R) – 67.47%, Dennis Baldeielli (D) – 32.53%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

MENOMINEE COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 5529 (52.99%), Gore – 4597 (44.06%)
2004 – Bush – 5942 (52.04%), Kerry - 5326 (46.64%)

Menominee City
2000 – 1578 (44.86%), 1844 (52.19%)
2004 – 1724 (46.36%), 1956 (52.59%)

Meyer Township
2000 - 217 (48.44%), 213 (47.54%)
2004 – 265 (48.45%), 272 (49.73%)

Menominee Township
2000 - 894 (51.26%), 793 (45.47%)
2004 – 972 (50.49%), 924 (48.00%)

Spalding Township
2000 - 406 (56.55%), 295 (41.09%)
2004 – 390 (52.92%), 338 (45.86%)

Mellen Township
2000 - 251 (56.66%), 182 (41.08%)
2004 – 288 (55.81%), 222 (43.02%)

Harris Township
2000 - 369 (57.39%), 262 (40.75%)
2004 – 406 (48.05%), 419 (49.59%)

Cedarville Township
2000 - 85 (56.29%), 55 (36.42%)
2004 – 110 (64.33%), 59 (34.50%)

Nadeau Township
2000 - 307 (59.38%), 195 (37.72%)
2004 – 313 (58.50%), 212 (39.63%)

Stephenson City
2000 - 219 (59.84%), 138 (37.70%)
2004 – 242 (62.53%),. 142 (36.69%)

Ingallston Township
2000 - 313 (60.42%), 188 (36.29%)
2004 – 359 (59.93%), 234 (39.07%)

Gourley Township
2000 – 123 (63.40%), 64 (32.99%)
2004 – 142 (64.84%), 75 (34.25%)

Faithorn Township
2000 - 67 (65.04%), 34 (33.01%)
2004 – 62 (56.36%), 47 (42.73%)

Daggett Township
2000 - 209 (65.11%), 105 (32.71%)
2004 – 185 (58.18%), 128 (40.25%)

Holmes Township
2000 - 87 (64.44%), 43 (31.85%)
2004 – 91 (57.23%), 68 (42.77%)

Stephenson township
2000 - 210 (66.46%), 101 (31.96%)
2004 – 215 (66.15%), 108 (33.23%)

Lake Township
2000 - 194 (68.31%), 85 (29.93%)
2004 – 178 (58.94%), 122 (40.40%)

Menominee County bucked the trend in the UP, as Bush lost ground to Kerry here. What is most surprising is that he lost it in rural areas and not the City of Menominee. The Nader votes came home here. I wonder if it followed Wisconsin patterns instead of most of Michigan’s, as Menominee is about an hour or less from Green Bay.

Casperson’s win in 2002 over Laurie Stupak was a bit of an upset. While he lost Menominee County based on homer votes, Laurie was held to 52%, while Bart carries it with 70%. This will probably be a strongly contested open seat.in 08. The dems want this one back, but will probably wait till then when there’s no incumbent.

Mecosta County

Mecosta County:
Location – Western/Northwestern Michigan
Population – 40,553 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 92.68% White, 3.60% Black, .64% American Indian, .87% Asian, .37% Some other Race, 1.79% Two or more races, 1.28% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Big Rapids (pop 10,849)

Mecosta County is a mostly rural GOP leaning county in Western Michigan west of Mt Pleasant. It is also the home of Ferris State University in Big Rapids.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
4th District – Dave Camp (R)

State Senators:
35th District – Michelle McManus (R)

State Representative:
102nd District – Darwin Booher (R)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 67.21%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 32.78%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 72.48%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 25.56%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 53.42%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 46.58%

Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 88.39%, Dan Marsh (Libertarian) – 8.19%

State Senators:
23rd District – Joanne Emmons (R) – 66.69%, Louis Gula (D) – 30.91%

State Representative:
100th District – M Pumford (R) – 61.09%, Glenn Perley (D) – 38.91%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 58.12%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 39.46%
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 67.75%, Lawrence Hollenbeck (D) – 28.62%

State Representative:
100th District – M Pumford (R) – 62.90%, – Cheryl Sterling – 37.10%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 54.66%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 44.28%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 62.85%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 34.99%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R)
– 56.48%, Gary Peters (D) – 40.31%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 54.29%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 44.09%
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 67.36%, Lawrence Hollenbeck (D) – 31.14%

State Senate:
35th District – Michelle McManus (R) – 62.70%, Carl Dahlberg (D) – 35.17%

State Representative:
102nd District – Rick Johnson (R) – 60.92%, Paul Challender (D) – 39.08%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
4th District – Dave Camp (R) – 64.02%, Mike Huckleberry (D) – 39.02%

State Representative:
102nd District – Darwin Booher (R) – 59.92%, Paul Challender (D) – 40.08%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
MECOSTA COUNTY
2000 – Bush – 8072 (54.71%), Gore - 6300 (42.70%)
2004 – Bush – 9710 (55.23%), Kerry – 7730 (43.97%)

Aetna Township
2000 - 399 (58.16%), 277 (40.38%)
2004 - 469 (57.41%), 340 (41.62%)

Austin Township
2000 - 300 (57.58%), 213 (40.88%)
2004 – 385 (59.97%), 253 (39.41%)

Big Rapids City
2000 - 1065 (46.10%), 1155 (50.00%)
2004 – 1227 (44.81%), 1479 (54.02%)

Big Rapids Township
2000 - 804 (57.97%), 550 (39.65%)
2004 – 986 (58.55%), 693 (41.15%)

Chippewa Township
2000 - 267 (53.08%), 224 (44.53%)
2004 – 292 (49.32%), 299 (50.51%)

Colfax Township
2000 - 514 (55.21%), 382 (41.03%)
2004 – 648 (58.22%), 458 (41.15%)

Deerfield Township
2000 - 321 (64.98%), 165 (33.40%)
2004 – 366 (63.65%), 206 (35.83%)

Fork Township
2000 - 370 (54.49%), 294 (43.30%)
2004 – 436 (54.98%), 349 (44.01%)

Grant Township
2000 - 193 (60.12%), 121 (37.69%)
2004 – 228 (61.46%), 140 (37.74%)

Green township
2000 - 711 (54.11%), 566 (43.07%)
2004 – 883 (55.82%), 689 (43.55%)

Hinton Township
2000 – 244 (59.80%), 155 (37.99%)
2004 – 306 (64.29%), 167 (35.08%)

Martiny Township
2000 - 312 (46.15%), 348 (51.48%)
2004 – 383 (47.28%), 424 (52.35%)

Mecosta Township
2000 - 533 (57.44%), 371 (39.98%)
2004 – 697 (59.62%), 461 (39.44%)

Millbrook Township
2000 - 232 (57.71%), 157 (39.05%)
2004 – 276 (58.60%),.194 (41.19%)

Morton township
2000 - 1245 (58.98%), 830 (39.32%)
2004 – 1474 (58.61%), 1018 (40.48%)

Sheridan Township
2000 - 216 (46.85%), 236 (51.19%)
2004 – 286 (48.31%), 300 (50.68%)

Wheatland Township
2000 - 346 (55.63%), 256 (41.16%)
2004 – 386 (57.19%), 280 (41.48%)

Mecosta County showed the pattern of a lot of Michigan communities between 2000 and 2004. Bush improved in the rural areas, and was crushed in college towns due to larger democrat turnout there. Big Rapids took a strong democrat shift in 2004 while the rest of the county in general took a right shift. I’m not sure what happened in Chippewa Township which bucked the trend. It’s not near Big Rapids, although it borders Martiny which went dem both times. It might just be turnout.

Redistricting changed a few districts here. Mecosta was moved from a Mt Pleasant based state senate district, to a NW Lake Michigan based district. The state senate district was also changed to a more northern district.

I can see Mecosta taking both a right shift, or a left shift depending on how left wing Big Rapids goes. If it goes back to a 50/50 area, then this county won’t be competitive. If it moves towards a 60% dem city, then I can see this county becoming another Isabella County.

Friday, June 10, 2005

Oakland County

Oakland County:
Location – Detroit Area
Population – 1,194,156 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 82.75% White, 10.11% Black, .27% American Indian, 4.14% Asian, .84% Some other Race, 1.86% Two or more races, 2.43% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Pontiac (pop 66,337)

Oakland County is the second largest county in the state and is one of the three counties in the Detroit Area. It is one of the wealthiest counties in the nation and is a competitive county in elections. It currently leans slightly democrat at the top of the ticket, but is more republican further down the ticket, which is the opposite of Macomb County which more GOP at the top, and dem at the bottom.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – Addison, Brandon, Groveland, Holly, Independence, Oxford, Rose, and Springfield Townships, the City of Clarkston, and part of Orion Township.

9th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – Bloomfield, Oakland, Southfield, West Bloomfield, and parts of Orion and Waterford Townships. The Cities of Auburn Hills, Berkley, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Clawson, Farmington, Farmington Hills, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Orchard Lake, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, (most of) Royal Oak, Sylvan Lake and Troy.

11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – Commerce, Highland, Lyon, Milford, Novi, and White Lake Townships. The Cities of Northville, Novi, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom. Part of Waterford Township.

12th District – Sander Levin (D) – Royal Oak Township. The cities of Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Madison Heights, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak (small part), and Southfield.

State Senators:
12th District – Mike Bishop (R) – Addison, Independence, Oakland, Orion, and Oxford Townships. The Cities of Auburn Hills, Clarkston, Keego Harbor, Lake Angeles, Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Sylvan Lake.

13th District – Shirley Johnson (R) – Bloomfield Township. The Cities of Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Clawson, Madison Heights, Royal Oak, and Troy.

14th District – Gilda Jacobs (D) – Royal Oak and Southfield Townships. The Cities of Farmington, Farmington Hills, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Lathrup Village, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, and Southfield.
15th District – Nancy Cassis (R) – Commerce, Highland, Holly, Lyon, Milford, West Bloomfield, and White Lake Townships. Cities of Northville, Novi, Orchard Lake, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom.

26th District – Deborah Cherry (D) – Brandon, Groveland, Springfield, and Waterford Townships.

State Representative:
26th District – Marie Donigan (D) – Cities of Madison Heights and Royal Oak

27th District – Andy Meisner (D) – Berkley, Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Pleasant Ridge, and part of Oak Park

29th District – Clarence Phillips (D) – Auburn Hills and Pontiac

35th District – Paul Condino (D) – Royal Oak Township. Cities of Lathrup Village, Southfield, and part of Oak Park.

37th District – Aldo Vagnozzi (D) – Farmington and Farmington Hills

38th District – Craig DeRoche (R) – Lyon and Novi Townships. Cities of Northville, Novi, South Lyon, Walled Lake, and Wixom

39th District – David Law (R) – Commerce and most of West Bloomfield Township

40th District – Shelley Goodman Taub (R) – Bloomfield and Southfield Townships. Cities of Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, and Sylvan Lake

41st District – Robert Gosselin (R) – Clawson and Troy

43rd District – Fran Amos (R) – Waterford Township and part of West Bloomfield Township. City of Lake Angeles.

44th District – John Stakoe (R) – Highland, Independence, Springfield, and White Lake Townships. City of Clarkston.

45th District – John Garfield (R) – Oakland township. Cities of Rochester and Rochester Hills.

46th District – James Marleau (R) – Addison, Brandon, Groveland, Holly, Orion, Oxford, and Rose Townships.

66th District – Chris Ward (R) – Milford Township.

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 66.32%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 33.65%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 72.43%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 26.11%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 50.48%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 49.52%

Congress:
8th District – Debbie Stabenow (D) – 55.30%, Susan Grimes Munsell (R) – 38.81%
9th District – Tom McMillin (R) – 52.04%, Dale Kildee (D) – 45.39%
11th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 63.36%, Travis Reeds (D) – 34.31%
12th District – Sander Levin (R) – 57.12%, Leslie Touma (R) – 40.65%

State Senators:
13th District – Michael Bouchard (R) – 64.37%, Jeffrey Jenks (D) – 32.78%
14th District – Gary Peters (D) – 65.48%, Mike Christie Jr (R) – 34.52%
15th District – Bill Bullard (R) – 61.46%, Ruth Fuller (D) - 38.54%
16th District – Mat Dunaskis (R) – 69.11%, Michael Odette (D) – 30.89%
28th District – Jodi Ann Spalding (R) – 51.01%, John Cherry (D) – 44.45%

State Representative:
34th District – Dave Woodward (D) – 54.97%, Douglas MacLean (R) – 42.11%
35th District – Gilda Jacobs (D) – 70.29%, Cecelio Maldanado (R) – 24.40%
36th District – Nancy Quarles (D) – 81.21%, Elizabeth LaHood (R) – 18.79%
37th District – Andrew Raczkowski (R) – 63.89%, Steve Dilbert (D) – 46.92%
38th District – Nancy Cassis (R) – 71.59%, Kristy Mary Demas (D) - 28.41%
39th District – Marc Shulman (R) – 55.17%, Maxine Brickner (D) – 40.61%
40th District – Patricia Godchaux (R) – 76.00%, Michael Coleman (D) – 24.00%
41st District – John Pappageorge (R) – 63.21%, David Richards (D) – 33.96%
42nd District – Robert Gosselin (R) – 67.62%, Jacquelyn Moore (D) – 32.38%
43rd District – Hubert Price (D) – 73.59%, Elsie E Bigger (R) – 26.41%
44th District – Mike Kowall (R) – 53.27%, Matt Hogan (D) – 46.73%
45th District – Mike Bishop (R) – 70.26%, Margaret M Zande(D) - 29.74%
46th District – Ruth Johnson (R) – 67.54%, Roxanne LaMontaine (D) – 26.63%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 49.22%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 47.75%
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 49.91%, Dianne Byrum (D) – 45.59%
9th District – Dale Kildee (D) – 52.37%, Grant Garrett (D) – 43.88%
11th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 55.42%, Matthew Fruman (D) – 41.07%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 63.93%, Bart Baron (R) – 32.01%

State Representative:
34th District – David Woodward (D) – 65.14%, Douglas MacLean (R) – 34.86%
35th District – Gilda Jacobs (D) – 74.56%, Aaron Samson (R) – 22.43%
36th District – Nancy Quarles (D) – 85.20%, Mel Palmer (R) – 14.80%
37th District – Andrew Raczkowski (R) – 50.46%, Aldo Vagnozzi (D) – 48.28%
38th District – Nancy Cassis (R) – 64.05%, Linda Premo (D) – 31.27%
39th District – Marc Shulman (R) – 57.89%, Ruth Fuller (D) – 39.70%
40th District – Patricia Godchaux (R) – 72.55%, David I Kaner (D) – 27.45%
41st District – John Pappageorge (R) – 60.52%, David T Woodward (D) – 36.61%
42nd District – Robert Gosselin (R) – 67.12%, Jerry Bixby (D) – 32.88
43rd District – Clarence Phillips (D) – 72.84%, Pamela Neely (R) – 27.16%
44th District – Mike Kowall (R) – 61.61%, Matthew Hogan III (D) – 38.39%
45th District – Mike Bishop (R) – 69.63%, Keith Van Wagner (D) – 30.37%
46th District – Ruth Johnson (R) – 64.48%, Patrick Boyon (D) – 30.84%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 50.52%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 48.30%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 56.36%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 41.69%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 50.34%, Gary Peters (D) – 47.22%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 58.29%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 40.21%
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 69.99%, Frank McAlpine (D) – 28.04%
9th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 58.10%, David Fink (D) – 39.88%
11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – 62.67%, Kevin Kelley (D) – 34.24%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 80.96%, Harvey Dean (R) – 17.37%

State Senate:
12th District – Mike Bishop (R) – 62.74%, Thomas Werth (D) – 37.26%
13th District – Shirley Johnson (R) – 63.15%, Colleen Levitt – 36.85%
14th District – Gilda Jacobs (D) – 68.40%, Marc Wilkins (R) – 29.48%
15th District – Nancy Cassis (R) – 60.47%, Sean Carlson (D) – 37.07%
26th District – John Muller (R) – 52.17%, Deborah Cherry (D) – 47.83%

State Representative:
26th District – David Woodward (D) –60.55%, Josh West (R) – 43.27%
27th District – Andy Meisner (D) – 70.50%, Keith Sanford (R) – 26.57%
29th District – Clarence Phillips (D) – 76.11%, Tom March (R) – 23.89%
35th District – Paul Condino (D) – 80.18%, Sylvia Jordan (R) – 19.82%
37st District – Aldo Vagnozzi (D) – 52.46%, Valerie Knol (R) – 47.54%
38th District – Craig DeRoche(R) – 65.05%, Linda Premo (D) – 34.95%
39th District – Marc Shulman (R) – 60.75%, Stuart Brickner (D) – 39.25%
40th District – Shelley Goodman Taub (R) – 62.08%, Shelli Weisberg (D) – 32.64%
41st District – John Pappageorge (R) – 68.97%, Richard Fischer (D) – 29.00%
43rd District – Fran Amos (R) – 52.92%, Betty Fortino (D) – 47.08%
44th District – John Stakoe (R) – 70.04%, George Bryan (D) – 29.96%
45th District – John Garfield (R) – 68.73%, John Kanaras (D) - 31.27%
46th District – Ruth Johnson (R) – 70.88%, Robert Reading (D) – 29.12%
66th District – Chris Ward (R) – 70.00%, W. James Block (D) – 30.00%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 65.76%, Bob Alexander (D) – 31.33%
9th District – Joe Knollenberg (R) – 58.45%, Steven Reifman (D) – 39.54%
11th District – Thad McCotter (R) – 63.47%, Phillip Truran (D) – 34.28%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 80.09%, Randall Shafer (R) – 18.44%

State Representative:
26th District – Marie Donigan (D) – 49.08%, Carlo Ginotti (R) – 45.14%
27th District – Andy Meisner (D) – 73.10%, William Axtell (R) – 24.23%
29th District – Clarence Phillips (D) – 74.54%, Samantha Moffett (R) – 25.46%
35th District – Paul Condino (D) – 86.76%, Alan Maislow (R) – 13.24%
37th District – Aldo Vagnozzi (D) – 56.63%, William Largent (R) – 43.37%
38th District – Craig DeRoche (R) – 61.39%, Joan Morgan (D) – 38.61%
39th District – David Law (R) – 52.40%, Michael Schwartz (D) – 45.31%
40th District – Shelley Goodman Taub (R) - Unopposed
41st District – Bob Gosselin (R) – 57.66%, Jim Blundo (D) – 42.34%
43rd District – Fran Amos (R) – 56.54%, Scott Hudson (D) – 43.46%
44th District – John Stakoe (R) – 67.88%, Bill Scrase (D) – 29.29%
45th District – John Garfield (R) – 63.12%, Thomas Werth (D) - 34.26
46th District – James Marleau (R) – 63.08%, Daniel Myslakowski (R) – 36.92%
66th District – Chris Ward (R) - 69.06%, W James Block (D) – 30.94%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
OAKLAND COUNTY
2000 - Bush - 274319 (48.10%), Gore – 281201 (49.31%)
2004 – Bush – 316633 (49.32%), Kerry – 319387 (49.75%)

Addison Township
2000 - 1948 (65.00%), 952 (31.77%)
2004 – 2406 (67.53%), 1113 (31.24%)

Auburn Hills City
2000 - 3408 (45.15%), 3913 (51.84%)
2004 – 4089 (45.90%), 4724 (53.03%)

Berkley City
2000 - 3860 (45.03%), 4400 (51.33%)
2004 – 4313 (45.65%), 5027 (53.21%)

Birmingham City
2000 - 6729 (56.26%), 4925 (41.18%)
2004 – 6772 (54.70%), 5508 (44.49%)

Bloomfield Hills City
2000 - 1804 (68.72%), 777 (29.60%)
2004 – 1802 (64.89%), 951 (34.25%)

Bloomfield Township
2000 - 16304 (61.87%), 9530 (36.16%)
2004 – 16314 (58.85%), 11197 (40.39%)

Brandon Township
2000 - 3824 (57.53%), 2638 (39.69%)
2004 – 4852 (60.70%), 3030 (37.91%)

Clarkston City
2000 - 300 (54.05%), 230 (41.44%)
2004 – 322 (55.52%), 252 (43.45%)

Clawson City
2000 - 3116 (46.60%), 3332 (49.83%)
2004 – 3584 (50.24%), 3471 (48.65%)

Commerce Township
2000 - 9541 (56.61%), 6867 (40.75%)
2004 – 12019 (59.91%), 7838 (39.07%)

Farmington City
2000 - 2796 (51.62%), 2442 (45.08%)
2004 – 2873 (51.06%), 2680 (47.63%)

Farmington Hills City
2000 - 19164 (47.41%), 20337 (50.31%)
2004 – 20019 (46.20%), 22931 (52.92%)

Ferndale City
2000 - 2970 (30.92%), 6107 (63.57%)
2004 – 3456 (30.71%), 7637 (67.87%)

Groveland Township
2000 - 1582 (57.76%), 1056 (38.55%)
2004 – 1988 (61.76%), 1204 (37.40%)

Hazel Park City
2000 - 2171 (34.21%), 3914 (61.68%)
2004 – 2780 (38.20%), 4412 (60.62%)

Highland Township
2000 - 5131 (57.30%), 3486 (38.93%)
2004 – 6509 (62.22%), 3849 (36.79%)

Holly Township
2000 - 2029 (47.94%), 2064 (48.77%)
2004 – 2813 (52.73%), 2442 (45.77%)

Huntington Woods City
2000 - 1094 (26.56%), 2929 (71.11%)
2004 – 1236 (28.53%), 3068 (70.82%)

Independence Township
2000 - 10116 (60.95%), 6003 (36.17%)
2004 – 12199 (63.50%), 6847 (35.64%)

Keego Harbor City
2000 - 522 (47.94%), 588 (48.77%)
2004 – 554 (47.88%), 590 (50.99%)

Lake Angelus City
2000 - 203 (89.04%), 23 (10.09%)
2004 – 217 (82.51%), 43 (16.35%)

Lathrup Village City
2000 - 719 (27.42%), 1855 (70.75%)
2004 – 686 (23.91%), 2169 (75.60%)

Lyon Township
2000 - 2815 (59.23%), 1792 (37.70%)
2004 – 4082 (63.54%), 2274 (35.40%)

Madison Heights City
2000 - 4950 (40.77%), 6771 (55.77%)
2004 – 5934 (43.79%), 7443 (54.92%)

Milford Township
2000 - 4598 (59.54%), 2921 (37.83%)
2004 – 5413 (61.92%), 3252 (37.20%)

Northville City
2000 - 1239 (62.20%), 716 (35.94%)
2004 – 1269 (58.83%), 866 (40.15%)

Novi City
2000 - 12339 (57.31%), 8667 (40.26%)
2004 – 14484 (57.24%), 10612 (41.94%)

Novi Township
2000 - 58 (60.42%), 35 (36.46%)
2004 – 67 (62.04%), 40 (37.04%)

Oak Park City
2000 - 1827 (14.09%), 10912 (84.13%)
2004 – 3120 (20.37%), 12095 (78.99%)

Oakland Township
2000 - 4823 (66.17%), 2219 (30.72%)
2004 – 6212 (67.51%), 2898 (31.50%)

Orchard Lake Village
2000 – 870 (63.09%), 471 (34.16%)
2004 – 938 (61.51%), 580 (38.03%)

Orion Township
2000 - 9329 (58.43%), 6157 (38.56%)
2004 – 11362 (61.60%), 6887 (37.34%)

Oxford Township
2000 - 4263 (58.49%), 2846 (39.05%)
2004 – 6155 (62.63%), 3557 (36.20%)

Pleasant Ridge City
2000 - 593 (36.86%), 943 (58.61%)
2004 – 658 (36.23%), 1140 (62.78%)

Pontiac City
2000 - 3360 (17.80%), 15182 (80.41%)
2004 – 4449 (20.07%), 17759 (79.21%)

Rochester City
2000 - 3270 (58.42%), 2153 (38.47%)
2004 – 3979 (59.51%), 2647 (39.59%)

Rochester Hills City
2000 - 21011 (59.56%), 13474 (38.20%)
2004 – 22733 (58.81%), 15571 (40.28%)

Rose Township
2000 - 1660 (55.56%), 1203 (40.26%)
2004 – 2139 (60.70%), 1337 (37.94%)

Royal Oak City
2000 - 14689 (45.45%), 16435 (50.85%)
2004 – 15529 (44.26%), 19143 (54.57%)

Royal Oak Township
2000 - 67 (3.49%), 1840 (95.78%)
2004 – 84 (4.75%), 1683 (95.08%)

South Lyon City
2000 - 2464 (52.39%), 2123 (45.14%)
2004 – 3191 (58.36%), 2236 (40.89%)

Southfield City
2000 - 5809 (15.63%), 30769 (82.80%)
2004 – 7269 (17.57%), 33827 (81.78%)

Southfield Township
2000 - 5133 (56.24%), 3721 (40.77%)
2004 – 5245 (54.28%), 4346 (44.93%)

Springfield Township
2000 - 3915 (60.06%), 2464 (37.80%)
2004 – 4946 (63.99%), 2710 (35.06%)

Sylvan Lake City
2000 - 583 (52.76%), 485 (43.89%)
2004 – 647 (54.28%), 529 (44.38%)

Troy City
2000 - 22775 (58.21%), 15463 (39.52%)
2004 – 24171 (56.52%), 18175 (42.50%)

Walled Lake City
2000 - 1438 (47.93%), 1462 (48.73%)
2004 – 1664 (50.81%), 1580 (48.24%)

Waterford Township
2000 - 16629 (50.79%), 15280 (46.67%)
2004 – 19965 (54.20%), 16504 (44.81%)

West Bloomfield Township
2000 – 14222 (42.00%), 19016 (56.15%)
2004 – 16150 (43.99%), 20317 (55.34%)

White Lake Township
2000 - 7279 (56.79%), 5203 (40.59%)
2004 – 9439 (61.31%), 5821 (37.81%)

Wixom City
2000 – 2970 (56.94%), 2110 (40.45%)
2004 – 3484 (57.20%), 2552 (41.90%)

This is not your dad’s Oakland County. In the old days, Oakland County was the GOP base, and along with West Michigan countered Wayne County, with democratic leaning Macomb County deciding the elections. Migration changed much of that. Many of today’s Oakland County residents did not live in Oakland County in 1984 during the Reagan landslide. Southfield was largely Catholic and Jewish in 84. Today, it is mostly black middle class. Many of the Jewish residents of Southfield then, now live in West Bloomfield, making that more democrat. Many of the Reaganites in Oakland (and West Wayne) are now living in Livingston and Lapeer counties, making them more Republican. There are a lot of former Farmington Hills, Southfield, and Novi residents now out here.

Overall, Bush improved on his numbers from 2000, and Kerry also improved on Gore’s 2000 numbers. Bush gained more in Oakland, than the democrats did, despite utter disasters in some areas, like Royal Oak. The gains were is the fast growing outer edges of the county. The center of Republican strength in Oakland is no longer the Bloomfields, but the western and northern edges. The Clarkston and Milford areas are the main base now. The democrats base is still Southfield and Ferndale, but it’s a much bigger base now than it was years ago. At the Mackinac Conference, Pollster Steve Mitchell said that Michael Dukakis defeated Bush by 5000 votes in Southfield. Al Gore defeated Bush by 24,000 votes there. John Kerry defeated Bush by 26,000 votes there.

Oakland County is usually described as fiscally conservative, and socially liberal by most pundits, and I’m sometimes as guilty of saying that myself. That’s oversimplifying things too much. Parts of Oakland County fit that description, and parts of Oakland County are very conservative, and parts of Oakland County are Very Liberal. It’s a regional county.

Southeastern Oakland is a democrat stronghold. It’s leaned democrat as long as I can remember, although much more so now, than before, and the politics here is spreading outward. Southfield, Royal Oak Township, and Oak Park all have black majorities from the middle class black exodus in Detroit. Bush actually made good percentage gains from 2000 to 2004 in Southfield, and especially Oak Park (orthodox Jews most likely), and made a slight gain in Royal Oak Township. Hazel Park is a white working/middle class area east of Oak Park. Pleasant Ridge, Huntington Woods, and Ferndale are all very culturally liberal areas. Bush lost percentage in Pleasant Ridge and Ferndale. Bush gained slightly in Huntington Woods. Berkely and Royal Oak (City) are more marginal, but cultural liberalism is pushing them leftward. Royal Oak was a disaster for Bush, and in Berkley, Bush gained slightly, while Kerry gained more.

Going west, we go through a major cause of concern for the GOP, until we reach the base. Farmington Hills, Farmington, Novi, and Northville, Wixom, Walled Lake, Milford, Lyon Township, and South Lyon. Farmington Hills fits every pundit’s stereotype about Oakland County. It was once a GOP stronghold, but now is moving democrat. Farmington is the same way, but tilts about 3% more GOP. Bush lost votes in both areas, and the democrats gained there. Northville and Novi are my concern. It shows that the liberal yuppies are moving westward. Northville (Oakland portion) is solid GOP, but made a big move toward the democrats. Novi was stagnant and did not have any real gains for Bush. Same with Wixom. Walled Lake did flip our way in 2004. We need to concentrate on those areas to stop the bleeding in Oakland. Past Wixom though is a different story. Lyon township, South Lyon, and Milford all were major gains for the GOP, and net losses by percentage for Kerry. South Lyon especially moved right. We need to maintain those big gains in outer SW Oakland. Central Western Oakland follows the same pattern as Milford - Highland, White Lake and Commerce Townships were all big gains for Bush.

Central Oakland is going to be a battleground for years. West Bloomfield is just North of Farmington Hills and is becoming a democrat stronghold. Bush stopped the bleeding there in 2004 due to inroads among Jewish voters, but Granholm got 58% there in 2002. The other Bloomfields are Republican Strongholds, but not like they used to be. Bush lost ground in all of them, as well as Birmingham. North of there, Pontiac is a democrat stronghold, but Bush improved there in 2004. Auburn Hills tilted more democrat however. East of there, Bush gained slightly in Rochester, but lost ground in Rochester Hills and Troy. Clawson broke the pattern, and flipped from Gore to Bush. He did gain in Democrat Madison Heights as well. However, there’s a trend toward the democrats here, especially in the affluent areas.

The Northern tier is going the opposite way of Central Oakland. Oakland, Orion, Oxford, and Rose all broke 60% for Bush in major gains. Holly (Near Grand Blanc) flipped from Gore to Bush in convincing fashion, most likely due to migration. The whole Grand Blanc area is moving right. The GOP needs to continue to gain here to help counter the bleeding in the more affluent areas.

Redistricting changed many of the districts. Two commonly made statements is that Joe Knollenberg’s district has been made more democrat in 2002. The other is that Knollenberg’s district has been sacrificed for Mike Rogers. Both of those are incorrect. Knollenberg’s old district was more democrat because of Southfield. The Congressional changes are as follows:

Knollenberg 2000 AND 2002 – Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Township, Farmington, Farmington Hills, Keego Harbor, Southfield Township, Sylvan Lake, West Bloomfield Township,

Knollenberg 2000/McCotter 2002 – Commerce Township, Highland Township, Lyon Township, Milford Township, Northville, Novi, Novi Township, White Lake, Wixom, (and Livonia and Redford Township in Wayne County)

Knollenberg 2000/Levin 2002 – Lathrup Village, Southfield City (most)

Levin 2000 and 2002 – Ferndale, Hazel Park, Huntington Woods, Madison Heights, Oak Park, Pleasant Ridge, Royal Oak (small part), Southfield (small part)

Levin 2000/Knollenberg 2002 – Berkley, Clawson, Royal Oak(most), Troy.

Kildee 2000/Knollenberg 2002 – Auburn Hills, Lake Angeles, Orion Township (part), Pontiac, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Waterford (part)

Kildee 2000/Rogers 2002 – Brandon Township, Clarkston, Groveland Township, Independence township, Orion Township (most), Springfield,

Kildee 2000/McCotter 2002 – Waterford (part)

Rogers 2000 and 2002 – Holly and Rose Townships.

Rogers, Kildee, McCotter, Levin, and to a lesser extent, Knollenberg were all winners in redistricting. Rogers gained some of the more Republican parts of Oakland County from Dale Kildee to help offset the Lansing/East Lansing portion of his district. Kildee shedded the fastest growing portion of his district and gained Saginaw and Bay City. McCotter gained the most Republican portion of Oakland County in a new district shared with Wayne County. Levin lost the Republican portion of his district and gained the most democrat portion of his district. Knollenberg lost some GOP and democrat areas of his district, and gained both democrat Pontiac and Royal Oak, but also GOP Rochester/Rochester Hills/Troy, and kept some GOP leaning areas of his district. Knollenberg’s 11th district in 2000 went for Al Gore, but his 2004 9th district went for Bush, although barely. Southfield alone has that much of an effect on a district. 13,000 votes (Pontiac) is easier to make up than 26,000 votes (Southfield).
The state senate districts changed a little, but not that much. Same with the state representative districts.

The 8th, 9th, and 11th congressional districts are all potentially competitive in the right year for democrats. Rogers and McCotter should always carry their parts of Oakland, but have democrat areas elsewhere. Knollenberg’s district is 50/50 partisanwise, although he is personally popular in the district and ran 8% ahead of Bush in 2004.

The 13th District in the state senate is not a gimme for the GOP. Currently held by social liberal Shirley Johnson, it contains much of the Bouchard district discussed earlier, although does not have the Ferndale/Huntington Woods areas, and has Bloomfield Township instead. This district went 51.98% for Bush, but Troy and Bloomfield Township are less Republican than they used to be, and Royal Oak is now a strong democrat lean. David Woodward would be a tough candidate here, especially if social liberals and social conservatives have a tough fight in the primary.

The 26th District in the state senate is a sleeper for the GOP. They did not contest this hard in 2002, which is shocking since it’s taken a right turn. Deborah Cherry cruised to a 55.85% win, but the district went only 49.86% for John Kerry. The Oakland County part of the district strongly leans republican, and Grand Blanc in Genesee County is moving back towards the GOP. State Rep Dave Robertson would be a very strong candidate for this district. Cherry is a strong democrat, but has not really been tested, since she’s only won safe democrat districts. Robertson defeated an incumbent in 2002.

The Royal Oak based 26th District in the state house was very close in 2004. Marie Donigan barely squeaked by Carlo Ginotti in a surprising close race. The district went 54.67% for Kerry, but if the GOP stops the bleeding in Royal Oak and Madison Heights with a strong local candidate, we could maybe win an upset here. It won’t be easy, but we don’t win when we don’t try.

The Farmington Hills based 37th District has had tough fights in the last three elections. Aldo Vagnozzi barely lost to then incumbent Rocky Raczkowski by a few hundred votes in 2000. Rocky was term limited out in 2002, and Aldo won the district twice since then, last time with 55.02%. This could be a race in 2006, but I expect more of a contest in 08 with term limits. The district went 52.31% to John Kerry.

The West Bloomfield/Commerce Township based 39th district is a tough district. David Law won the open seat in 2004 with 52.40% of the vote, but the district went 50.31% for John Kerry. West Bloomfield is strongly democrat (Knollenberg exception), and Commerce Township is strongly Republican. This will be contested for a few more years.

The Waterford based 43rd district is slightly GOP leaning. It contains some republican parts of West Bloomfield, and small but solidly GOP Lake Angeles, as well as Waterford which swings locally, and slightly leans GOP statewide. Fran Amos won a close race here in 2002, and won with 56.54% in 2004. President Bush won here with 55.03% of the vote, but he ran stronger than most Republicans in Waterford which is usually 51-52% GOP.

Oakland will continue to be a battleground for years to come. The question is will it be a battleground countywide, or only in small portions of it as is the case in Wayne County. This depends on how many gains are made in the Northern and Westernmost parts of the county, and if the bleeding stops in Central Oakland.

Sunday, June 05, 2005

Luce County

Luce County:
Location – UP
Population – 7,024 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 82.84% White, 7.52% Black, 5.54% American Indian, .36% Asian, .47% Some other Race, 3.25% Two or more races, 1.75% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Newberry (pop 2,686)

Luce County is in the eastern portion of the Upper Penninsula. It along with Chippewa County, contains Tahquamenon Falls. Newberry is the county seat and is the “Moose Capital” of Michigan. It’s main industry is corrections and tourism.


Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D)

State Senators:
38th District – Michael Prusi (D)


State Representative:
109th District – Stephen Adamini (D)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 57.98%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 42.02%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 69.10%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 29.66%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 52.37%, John Smietanka (R) – 47.63%

Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 56.83%, Michelle McManus (R) – 42.32%

State Senators:
37th District – Walt North (R) – 63.24%, Kay Ann Chase (D) – 36.76%

State Representative:
107th District – Randy Bertran (D) – 53.76%, Scott Shakleton (R) – 46.24%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 60.00%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 37.47%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 60.39%, Chuck Yob (R) – 38.13%

State Representative:
107th District – Scott Shakleton (R) – 73.59%, Steve Dart (D) – 26.41%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 52.26%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 45.73%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 61.26%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 35.11%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 54.30%, Gary Peters (D) – 41.85%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 62.28%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 35.79%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 69.25%, Don Hooper (R) – 29.40%

State Senate:
38th District – Michael Prusi (D) – 50.44%, David Schoenow (R) – 49.56%

State Representative:
109th District – Jim Hafeman (R) – 52.06%, Stephen Adamini (D) – 47.94%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 66.68%, Don Hooper (R) – 32.01%

State Representative:
109th District – David Kaltenbach (R) – 52.31%, Stepehn Adamini (D) – 47.69%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
LUCE COUNTY
2000 - Bush – 1480 (58.36%), Gore – 956 (37.70%)
2004 – Bush – 1749 (61.82%), Kerry -1045 (36.94%)

McMillan Township
2000 - 622 (54.71%), 462 (40.63%)
2004 - 727 (58.77%), 494 (39.94%)

Pentland Township
2000 - 416 (57.54%), 286 (39.56%)
2004 – 487 (61.03%), 303 (37.97%)

Columbus Township
2000 - 62 (61.39%), 36 (35.64%)
2004 – 66 (62.26%), 37 (34.91%)

Lakefield Township
2000 - 380 (65.97%), 172 (29.86%)
2004 – 469 (68.17%), 211 (30.67%)

Luce County tilts more republican than most of the UP, both at local and state levels. It’s more democrat in statelevel elections due to state workers (Corrections) and prefers social conservative democrats overall. Neither Gore or Kerry sold here, although Granholm won here because of the dislike of John Engler in North Michigan. It has taken a right shift, since Adamini has been unable to win Luce County twice, despite being in a solid democrat district overall due to Marquette County.

Mackinac County

Mackinac County:
Location – UP
Population – 11,943 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 80.07% White, .20% Black, 14.21% American Indian, .31% Asian, .28% Some other Race, 4.92% Two or more races, .90% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – St Ignace (pop 2,678)

Mackinac County is one of the two Easternmost counties in the UP. It is a swing county for most races, and tilts GOP for national races. It also contains Mackinac Island between the UP, and “Trollland.”

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D)

State Senators:
38th District – Jason Allen (R)


State Representative:
107th District – Gary McDowell (D)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 64.70%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 35.30%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 71.87%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 26.58%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 52.04%, John Smietanka (R) – 47.96%

Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 58.69%, Michelle McManus (R) – 40.01%

State Senators:
37th District – Walt North (R) – 69.78%, Kay Ann Chase (D) – 30.22%

State Representative:
107th District – Randy Bertran (D) – 52.35%, Scott Shakleton (R) – 47.65%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 58.12%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 39.40%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 58.67%, Chuck Yob (R) – 40.13%

State Representative:
107th District – Scott Shakleton (R) – 69.37%, Steve Dart (D) – 30.63%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 51.97%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 47.28%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 64.64%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 33.31%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 56.56%, Gary Peters (D) – 41.38%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 62.13%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 36.61%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 71.81%, Don Hooper (R) – 27.39%

State Senate:
37th District – Jason Allen (R) – 52.22%, Michael Estes (D) – 47.78%

State Representative:
107th District – Scott Shakleton (R) – 63.67%, Gary McDowell (D) – 36.33%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 69.31%, Don Hooper (R) – 29.16%

State Representative:
109th District – Gary McDowell (D) – 51.07%, Walt North (R) – 48.93%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
MACKINAC COUNTY
2000 - Bush - 3272 (54.81%), Gore - 2533 (42.43%)
2004 - Bush - 3706 (56.16%), Kerry – 2819 (42.72%)

Moran Township
2000 - 246 (45.14%), 283 (51.93%)
2004 – 332 (51.96%), 302 (47.23%)

Hendricks Township
2000 - 47 (47.96%), 50 (51.02%)
2004 – 50 (55.56%), 40 (44.44%)

St Ignace Township
2000 - 166 (49.26%), 162 (48.07%)
2004 – 211 (46.99%), 232 (51.67%)

St Ignace City
2000 - 526 (48.98%), 513 (47.77%)
2004 – 646 (54.47%), 532 (44.86%)

Bois Blanc Township
2000 - 65 (47.79%), 63 (46.32%)
2004 – 60 (50.85%), 55 (46.61%)

Mackinac Island City
2000 - 221 (50.34%), 193 (43.96%)
2004 – 230 (52.04%), 205 (46.38%)

Brevort Township
2000 – 154 (55.80%), 116 (42.03%)
2004 – 191 (55.69%), 152 (44.31%)

Newton Township
2000 – 112 (56.85%), 82 (41.62%)
2004 – 122 (50.00%), 117 (47.95%)

Hudson Township
2000 - 60 (57.69%), 44 (42.31%)
2004 – 68 (59.13%), 44 (38.26%)

Portage Township
2000 - 315 (58.77%), 205 (38.25%)
2004 – 341 (56.09%), 255 (41.94%)

Clark Township
2000 - 743 (59.54%), 481 (38.54%)
2004 – 800 (60.56%), 513 (38.83%)

Garfield Township
2000 - 428 (62.12%), 253 (36.72%)
2004 – 454 (61.94%), 264 (36.02%)

Marquette Township
2000 - 189 (67.50%), 88 (31.43%)
2004 – 201 (64.63%), 108 (34.73%)

Bush twice overperformed in Mackinac County for the GOP. While Republicans often are able to win in Mackinac County, it’s not a 55% GOP county from top to bottom, and moderate democrats do well here with the large number of state workers. St Ignace Township flipped from Bush to Kerry in 2004, and Moran and Hendricks Townships flipped from Gore to Bush. Both Bush and Kerry gained percentage points in 2004, but Bush gained more, despite the Nader votes going dem.

Mackinac County also takes the NRA ratings seriously. Walt North was the victim of an undeserved (IMO) “F” rating by them due to one vote on the Morning Pigeon Hunting bill. While North deserved a grade reduction to that vote, he didn’t deserve an F, while Joe Schwarz (who voted against CCW and campaigned on that issue in 2002) got a “B-“. Schwarz deserved an F, and North should have gotten the B- or C. Taking off my GOP hat, I’m not against the NRA’s endorsement of McDowell. SAFR also endorsed him. However, grades need to be consistent, and the CCW vote was bigger than the Pigeon bill(both of which I support).

The NRA’s influence here though speaks for itself. Walt North (From St Ignace) wins easily with almost 70%+ in 1998. Scott Shakleton beats Gary McDowell in 2002 with 63%. McDowell gets the NRA endorsement and beats North in his home county in 2004.

Mackinac County will likely continue to be competitive in most races, shunning away from national democrats, but open to voting for local democrats.

Manistee County

Manistee County:
Location – West/Northwest Michigan
Population – 24,527 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 94.16% White, 1.63% Black, 1.30% American Indian, .32% Asian, 1.01% Some other Race, 1.55% Two or more races, 2.61% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Manistee (pop 6,586)

Manistee County is a swing county in West/Northwest Michigan on the Lake Michigan Coast. It is North of Ludington and South of Frankfort.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R)

State Senators:
35th District – Michelle McManus (R)


State Representative:
101st District – David Palsrock (R)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 62.85%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 37.15%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 67.66%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 31.25%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 50.01%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 49.99%

Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 58.68%, Bob Shrauger (D) – 40.13%

State Senators:
36th District – George McManus (R) – 61.35%, Joel Casler (D) – 38.65%

State Representative:
101st District – David Mead (R) – 54.45%, Lance Hendrickson (D) – 45.55%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 52.64%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 44.78%
Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 57.45%, Bob Shrauger (D) – 40.65%

State Representative:
101st District – David Mead (R) – 58.35%, Nick Krieger (D) – 41.65%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 49.45%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 49.31%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 57.63%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 40.50%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 51.21%, Gary Peters (D) – 46.41%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 61.36%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 37.41%
Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 61.89%, Jeffrey Wrisley (D) – 36.17%

State Senate:
35th District – Michelle McManus (R) – 57.91%, Carl Dahlberg (D) – 40.23%

State Representative:
101st District – David Palsrock (R) – 54.11%, Nick Krieger (D) – 45.89%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 62.60%, Kimon Kotos (D) – 35.76%

State Representative:
101st District – David Palsrock (R) – 52.04%, Rick Gebhard (D) – 47.96%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
MANISTEE COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 5401 (47.26%), Gore – 5639 (49.34%)
2004 – Bush – 6295 (49.41%), Kerry – 6272 (49.23%)

Arcadia Township
2000 - 208 (50.24%), 192 (46.38%)
2004 – 234 (54.67%), 191 (44.63%)

Bear Lake Township
2000 - 400 (52.42%), 333 (43.64%)
2004 – 476 (54.40%), 389 (44.46%)

Brown Township
2000 - 191 (54.89%), 144 (41.38%)
2004 – 232 (55.11%), 178 (42.28%)

Cleon Township
2000 - 201 (53.03%), 167 (44.06%)
2004 – 255 (58.09%), 181 (41.23%)

Dickson Township
2000 - 198 (45.83%), 217 (50.23%)
2004 – 225 (45.00%), 264 (52.80%)

Filer Township
2000 - 506 (42.20%), 664 (55.38%)
2004 – 586 (44.50%), 725 (55.05%)

Manistee City
2000 - 1261 (42.23%), 1622 (54.32%)
2004 – 1441 (44.88%), 1719 (53.53%)

Manistee Township
2000 - 726 (46.66%), 781 (50.19%)
2004 – 787 (47.38%), 850 (51.17%)

Maple Grove Township
2000 - 257 (51.20%), 223 (44.42%)
2004 – 304 (52.96%), 257 (44.77%)

Marilla Township
2000 - 103 (54.79%), 78 (41.49%)
2004 – 124 (59.05%), 83 (39.52%)

Norman Township
2000 - 318 (45.89%), 349 (50.36%)
2004 – 367 (46.69%), 405 (51.53%)

Onekama Township
2000 - 470 (55.23%), 350 (41.13%)
2004 – 531 (56.01%), 409 (43.14%)

Pleasanton Township
2000 - 258 (60.28%), 154 (35.98%)
2004 – 312 (65.00%), 164 (34.17%)

Springdale Township
2000 – 152 (47.80%), 158 (49.69%)
2004 – 186 (46.38%), 210 (52.37%)

Stronach Township
2000 - 162 (42.52%), 207 (54.33%)
2004 – 235 (47.96%), 247 (50.41%)

Manistee is one of the few swing counties in Northwestern Michigan. Seven municipalities went to Gore and Kerry, and eight went for Bush. The county itself flipped in 2004 due to increases in Bush support in the City of Manistee, and the county overall. The 101st state rep district may be a sleeper if a democrat gets enough support in GOP leaning Ludington or Leelanau Counties. This county should be competitive again in the next few elections.

Mason County

Mason County:
Location – West/Northwest Michigan
Population – 28,274 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 95.84% White, .73% Black, .78% American Indian, .28% Asian, .82% Some other Race, 1.53% Two or more races, 3.01% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Ludington (pop 8,357)

Mason County is a competitive county in West/Northwest Michigan on the Lake Michigan Coast. It is North of Oceana County and South of Manistee.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R)

State Senators:
35th District – Gerald Van Woerkom (R)


State Representative:
101st District – David Palsrock (R)

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 66.10%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 33.90%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 71.17%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 27.20%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 50.24%, John Smietanka (R) – 49.76%

Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 57.53%, Bob Shrauger (D) – 40.36%

State Senators:
35th District – Bill Schuette (R) – 68.17%, Brian Baldwin (D) – 31.83%

State Representative:
101st District – David Mead (R) – 54.45%, Lance Hendrickson (D) – 54.38%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Spence Abraham (R) – 55.98%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 41.07%
Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 56.85%, Bob Shrauger (D) – 40.34%

State Representative:
101st District - Nick Krieger (D) – 51.56%, – David Mead (R) – 48.44%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 53.09%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 45.58%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 62.33%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 35.20%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 55.07%, Gary Peters (D) – 41.49%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 57.95%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 40.47%
Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 65.72%, Jeffrey Wrisley (D) – 32.17%

State Senate:
34th District – Gerald Van Woerkom (R) – 51.07%, Bob Shrauger (D) – 46.12%

State Representative:
101st District – Nick Krieger (D) – 51.91%, David Palsrock (R) – 48.09%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
2nd District – Pete Hoekstra (R) – 64.78%, Kimon Kotos (D) – 33.86%

State Representative:
101st District – David Palsrock (R) – 56.84%, Rick Gebhard (D) – 43.16%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

MASON COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 7066 (54.29%), Gore – 5579 (42.86%)
2004 – Bush – 8124 (55.60%), Kerry – 6333 (43.34%)

Amber Township
2000 - 558 (58.31%), 374 (39.08%)
2004 – 698 (59.40%), 464 (39.49%)

Branch Township
2000 - 257 (50.89%), 239 (47.33%)
2004 – 297 (53.71%), 250 (45.21%)

Custer Township
2000 - 343 (58.73%), 226 (38.70%)
2004 – 354 (53.88%), 295 (44.90%)

Eden Township
2000 - 111 (50.45%), 108 (49.09%)
2004 – 151 (54.51%), 124 (44.77%)

Free Soil Township
2000 – 166 (39.71%), 242 (57.89%)
2004 - 210 (42.77%), 274 (55.80%)

Grant Township
2000 - 184 (48.42%), 187 (49.21%)
2004 – 203 (44.91%), 245 (54.20%)

Hamlin Township
2000 - 994 (56.45%), 716 (40.66%)
2004 – 1186 (59.84%),.779 (39.30%)

Logan Township
2000 - 90 (59.21%), 58 (38.16%)
2004 – 90 (53.57%), 74 (44.05%)

Ludington City
2000 - 1871 (50.64%), 1692 (45.79%)
2004 – 2056 (52.98%), 1786 (46.02%)

Meade Township
2000 - 55 (65.48%), 28 (33.33%)
2004 – 45 (54.22%), 37 (44.58%)

Pere Marquette Township
2000 - 692 (56.54%), 495 (40.44%)
2004 – 814 (59.94%), 532 (39.18%)

Riverton Township
2000 - 322 (60.98%), 195 (36.93%)
2004 – 389 (61.75%), 236 (37.46%)

Scottville City
2000 - 274 (54.58%), 210 (41.83%)
2004 – 298 (55.49%), 231 (43.02%)

Sheridan Township
2000 - 220 (50.93%), 198 (45.83%)
2004 – 234 (49.06%), 241 (50.52%)

Sherman Township
2000 - 269 (56.28%), 198 (41.42%)
2004 – 324 (56.64%), 240 (41.96%)

Summit Township
2000 - 327 (59.24%), 214 (38.77%)
2004 – 370 (61.06%), 234 (38.61%)

Victory Township
2000 - 333 (61.21%), 199 (36.59%)
2004 – 405 (59.12%), 271 (39.56%)

Mason County is a marginal GOP county in West/Northwest Michigan. Sheridan Township flipped from Bush to Kerry, but county results were overall similar with Bush and Kerry slightly gaining from the 2000 results here.

Redistricting took Mason County away from the Midland State Senate district, and placed it in the Muskegon based district which is 50/50. Nick Krieger must have had strong regional support here in his state rep races as he ran far ahead of the democrat ticket and won the county. The 101st district may be interesting when Palsrock is term limited out. It’s not a gimme with Manistee and Benzie Counties there. Gerald Van Woerkom will have another tough race ahead of him in 2006, but he’s used to them being from Muskegon County.

Marquette County

Marquette County:
Location – UP
Population – 64,634 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 95.12% White, 1.32% Black, 1.49% American Indian, .49% Asian, .25% Some other Race, 1.31% Two or more races, .69% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Marquette (pop 19,661)

Marquette County is the largest county in the UP and is the most democrat county in the UP. It is the home of Northern Michigan University, and also has a large union and state worker population.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D)

State Senators:
38th District – Michael Prusi (D)

State Representative:
109th District – Stephen Adamini (D) – Most of the County
110th District – Rich Brown (D) – Powell Township

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 51.61%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 48.39%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 60.36%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 38.09%
Attorney General - Jennifer Granholm (D) – 59.45%, John Smietanka (R) – 40.55%

Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 67.20%, Michelle McManus (R) – 31.25%

State Senators:
38th District – Don Koivisto (D) – 79.05%, Patricia Ashcraft (R) – 19.42%

State Representative:
109th District – Michael Prusi (D) – 80.74%, Jason DesParois (R) – 19.26%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Debbie Stabenow (D) – 49.68%, Spence Abraham (R) – 47.36%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 68.39%, Chuck Yob (R) – 30.53%

State Representative:
109th District – Stephen Adamini (D) – 68.37%, – Gus Rydholm – 31.63%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D) – 57.69%, Dick Posthumus (R) – 40.21%
Secretary of State - Butch Hollowell (D) – 50.52%, Terri Lynn Land (R) – 46.49%
Attorney General – Gary Peters (D) – 57.47%, Mike Cox (R) – 39.39%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 72.04%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 26.44%
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 77.67%, Don Hooper (R) – 21.22%

State Senate:
38th District – Michael Prusi (D) – 73.68%, David Schoenow (D) – 26.32%

State Representative:
101st District – Stephen Adamini (D) – 73.30%, Jim Hafeman (R) – 26.70%
110th District – Rich Brown (D) – 72.54%, Barry Fay (R) – 27.46%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
1st District – Bart Stupak (D) – 74.38%, Don Hooper (R) – 23.99%

State Representative:
109th District – Stephen Adamini (D) – 69.82%, David Kaltenbach (R) – 30.18%
110th District – Rich Brown (D) – 57.31%, Patricia Ashcraft (R) – 34.11%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

MARQUETTE COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 12577 (43.10%), 15503 (53.13%)
2004 – Bush – 14690 (45.22%), 17412 (53.60%)

Richmond Township
2000 - 112 (24.24%), 344 (74.46%)
2004 – 135 (29.61%), 317 (69.52%)

Champion Township
2000 - 58 (32.95%), 108 (61.36%)
2004 – 70 (38.04%), 110 (59.78%)

Republic Township
2000 - 241 (37.31%), 388 (60.06%)
2004 – 301 (42.70%), 389 (55.18%)

Ishpeming City
2000 - 1109 (37.86%), 1720 (58.72%)
2004 – 1276 (39.89%), 1872 (58.52%)

Neguanee City
2000 - 802 (37.79%), 1242 (58.53%)
2004 – 920 (40.58%), 1326 (58.49%)

Tilden township
2000 - 202 (38.48%), 300 (57.14%)
2004 – 225 (38.99%), 347 (60.14%)

Marquette City
2000 - 3189 (40.35%), 4331 (54.80%)
2004 – 3597 (40.48%), 5160 (58.07%)

Neguanee Township
2000 - 559 (41.59%), 752 (55.95%)
2004 – 707 (45.55%), 837 (53.93%)

Ishpeming Township
2000 - 784 (42.52%), 1012 (54.88%)
2004 – 845 (45.33%), 1010 (53.93%)

Powell Township
2000 - 201 (41.79%), 254 (55.95%)
2004 – 244 (47.47%), 264 (51.36%)

Ely Township
2000 - 423 (44.95%), 499 (53.03%)
2004 – 442 (44.07%), 554 (55.23%)

Marquette Township
2000 - 724 (44.34%), 847 (51.87%)
2004 – 898 (47.77%), 969 (51.54%)

Michigamme Township
2000 - 109 (45.80%), 120 (50.42%)
2004 – 106 (45.69%), 124 (53.45%)

Humboldt Township
2000 - 131 (47.12%), 142 (51.08%)
2004 – 142 (50.71%), 131 (46.79%)

Forsyth Township
2000 - 1126 (48.45%), 1120 (48.19%)
2004 – 1398 (50.67%), 1333 (48.31%)

Ewing township
2000 - 33 (48.53%), 30 (44.12%)
2004 – 39 (45.35%), 39 (45.35%)

Chocolay Township
2000 - 1503 (50.12%), 1361 (45.38%)
2004 – 1831 (53.20%), 1576 (45.79%)

Turin Township
2000 - 37 (52.11%), 31 (43.66%)
2004 – 44 (48.35%), 46 (50.55%)

Skandia Township
2000 - 228 (54.16%), 185 (43.94%)
2004 – 264 (58.41%), 180 (39.82%)

Sands Township
2000 - 529 (55.05%), 403 (41.94%)
2004 – 695 (57.15%), 507 (41.69%)

West Branch Township
2000 - 394 (59.07%), 255 (38.23%)
2004 – 425 (60.46%), 269 (38.26%)

Wells Township
2000 - 89 (61.38%), 53 (36.55%)
2004 – 86 (61.87%), 52 (37.41%)

Marquette is the democrat stronghold in the UP. That said, Bush’s visit to the UP helped him out in most parts of this county outside of the city itself (most likely due to NMU). The county, like most of the UP, is more favorable to moderate to conservative democrats over a liberal like John Kerry, although they’ll back a liberal over most republicans unlike most of the rest of the UP. The small townships of Humboldt flipped to Bush, Turin flipped to Kerry, and Ewing flipped to a tie.

Redistricting changed the state representative district here. Powell township was given to the Western UP district, and the rest of it stayed in the Marquette centered district. The Western UP district is a possible swing district (52.44% Bush, but more democrat locally) with a strong candidate, and the Marquette district is solid democrat (51.63% Kerry, more democrat locally).

Saturday, June 04, 2005

Livingston County

Livingston County:
Location – Southeastern Michigan
Population – 156,951 (2000 Census) (Approx 175,000 today)
Demographics – 97.13% White, .46% Black, .43% American Indian, .57% Asian, .32% Some other Race, 1.06% Two or more races, 1.24% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Howell (pop 9,232)

Livingston County is the home base of the Republican Michigander. It is the fastest growning county in the state and is between Ann Arbor and Flint on US-23, and between Lansing and Oakland County on I-96 and M-59. It was the fourth most republican county in the state by percentage in 2004, behind only Hillsdale, Missaukee, and Ottawa counties.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressman – Mike Rogers (R) – 8th District
State Senator – Valde Garcia (R) – 22nd District
State Representatives:
47th District – Joe Hune (R) – Conway Township, Handy Township (Fowlerville), Iosco Township, Unadilla Township, Putnam Township (Pinckney), Hamburg Township, Howell City and Township, Cohoctah Township, Deerfield Township, Tyrone Township (Livingston portion of Fenton), and Hartland Township.

66th District – Chris Ward (R) – Brighton City and Township, Green Oak Township, Genoa Township, Marion Township, and Oceola Township

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 73.82%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 26.18%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 79.85%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 18.47%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R)– 58.23%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 41.77%
Congress:
8th District – Susan Grimes Munsell (R) – 53.05%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 43.17%

State Senator:
26th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 71.49%, Sylvia McCollough (D) – 26.88%

State Representative:
66th District – Judith Scranton (R) – 70.30%, Patrick Blake (D) – 25.60%
67th District – Paul DeWeese (R) – 60.52%, William Keith (D) – 37.17%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate Spence Abraham (R) – 57.98%, Debbie Stabenow (D) – 39.11%
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 63.66%, Dianne Byrum (D) – 33.92%

State Representative:
66th District – Judith Scranton (R) – 72.17%, Jim Swonk (D) – 27.83%
67th District – Paul DeWeese (R) – 60.52%, Tom Holcomb (D) – 37.17%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 61.86%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 37.09%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 68.83%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 29.08%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 64.86%, Gary Peters (D) – 32.87%
US Senate - Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 52.27%, Carl Levin (D) – 46.18%
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 76.80%, Frank McAlpine (D) – 21.90%
State Senate:
22nd District – Valde Garcia (R) – 70.90%, Jim Swonk (D) – 29.10%

State Representative:
47th District – Joe Hune (R) – 68.85%, Matt McGivney (D) – 31.15%
66th District – Chris Ward (R) – 73.34%, W. James Block (D) – 26.66%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
8th District – Mike Rogers (R) – 71.48%, Bob Alexander (D) – 26.71%

State Representative
47th District – Joe Hune (R) – 70.82%, Edmund Senkowski (D) – 29.18%
66th District – Chris Ward (R) – 71.57%, W. James Block (D) – 28.43%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.

LIVINGSTON COUNTY
2000 – Bush - 44637 (59.14%), Gore – 28780 (38.13%)
2004 – Bush – 58860 (62.79%), Kerry – 33991 (36.26%)

Brighton City
2000 - 1770 (53.31%), 1455 (43.83%)
2004 – 2226 (55.42%), 1773 (43.81%)

Brighton Township
2000 - 6061 (63.58%), 3222 (33.80%)
2004 – 6977 (65.85%), 3525 (33.27%)


Cohoctah Township
2000 - 905 (59.38%), 581 (38.12%)
2004 – 1091 (63.76%), 598 (34.95%)

Conway Township
2000 - 720 (58.92%), 470 (38.46%)
2004 – 1025 (64.63%), 540 (34.05%)

Deerfield Township
2000 - 1144 (58.04%), 759 (38.51%)
2004 – 1449 (62.75%), 831 (35.99%)

Genoa Township
2000 - 5079 (62.98%), 2799 (34.71%)
2004 – 7081 (65.69%), 3608 (33.47%)

Green Oak Township
2000 - 4373 (57.56%), 3006 (39.57%)
2004 – 5779 (60.83%), 3618 (38.08%)

Hamburg Township
2000 - 5502 (55.22%), 4200 (42.16%)
2004 – 6933 (57.88%), 4933 (41.18%)

Handy Township
2000 - 1505 (56.64%), 1069 (40.23%)
2004 – 2056 (62.17%), 1225 (37.04%)

Hartland Township
2000 - 3543 (63.68%), 1897 (34.09%)
2004 – 4925 (67.33%), 2329 (31.84%)

Howell City
2000 - 2010 (54.92%), 1535 (41.94%)
2004 – 2499 (58.35%), 1751 (40.88%)

Howell Township
2000 - 1638 (62.28%), 931 (35.40%)
2004 – 2202 (65.36%), 1134 (33.66%)

Iosco Township
2000 - 765 (59.81%), 479 (37.45%)
2004 – 1071 (68.96%), 468 (30.14%)

Marion Township
2000 - 2097 (61.48%), 1228 (36.00%)
2004 – 3137 (65.72%), 1600 (33.52%)

Oceola Township
2000 - 2296 (61.37%), 1368 (36.57%)
2004 – 3513 (65.92%), 1768 (33.18%)

Putnam Township
2000 - 1793 (52.37%), 1513 (44.19%)
2004 – 2417 (56.76%), 1792 (42.09%)

Tyrone Township
2000 - 2741 (60.64%), 1649 (36.48%)
2004 – 3560 (64.57%), 1917 (34.77%)

Unadilla township
2000 - 695 (50.77%), 619 (45.22%)
2004 – 919 (57.84%), 641 (40.34%)

This is my home, and we are surrounded. We have the blue counties of Ingham (Lansing/East Lansing) to the West, Oakland (Detroit Suburbs) to the East, Genesee (Flint) to the North, and the biggest problem of all, Washtenaw (Ann Arbor) to the South.

Every year, the local paper hypes up the democrats and says that it is their time to take over the county. Instead, the county has moved to the right in recent years. It used to elect both pro-life and pro-choice republicans, but now almost every candidates running goes after the Right to Life endorsement. The gun issue has always been strong here, and continues to be. The biggest swings towards Bush are in the more blue collar and western parts of the county. Unadilla is a swing township, and Putnam is marginal, but they went for Bush heavily. They will occasionally support a pro-rural working class democrat, but will not support a John Kerry style of democrat. The gun issue kills them in the entire county, but especially there. The life issue also hurts them here.

The fastest growing areas (outside of Hamburg) are the most republican. Hartland, Tyrone (which used to be competitive), Oceola, Marion, and Genoa Township are all strongholds. The Fowlerville Area (Handy, Conway) is starting to boom as well, and is becoming more Republican as democrats become less blue collar. Brighton City, Hamburg Township, and Green Oak Township’s slight right swing surprised me a little. Many Ann Arborites moved there, so I expected them to be more competitive.

Our county commission is ten Republicans with no democrats. Of our township elected officials, only three trustees are democrat. There are some democrats who sneak on to local non-partisan offices however, usually school board where the letter “D” isn’t shown next to their names.

Redistricting was good to us here. Mike Rogers was given a much safer seat in 2002 as he lost the Washtenaw and Genesee County parts of his district, and gained Clinton County, as well as a republican part of Oakland County. This counteracts the democrat stronghold of Ingham County, and gives him room to spare. He’s probably safe as long as he wants it.

The State Senate district was interesting to say the least. In 2000, Mike Rogers left the state senate mid-term to go to Congress. Valde Garcia, who then lived in Clinton County, won the special election. Redistricting butchered that district, taking out the Clinton County portion due to Livingston County’s growth. Valde moved to Howell, ran for re-election here, and won easily. He’s a strong campaigner who is very active in county events.

The state representative districts changed the most. The Brighton based district (Chris Ward) shrunk due to population grown. Milford Township in Oakland County was added on to the Brighton district. The rural seat shared with Ingham County became an open seat entirely in Livingston County. Parts of the old 66th were also given to the 47th district. We now have 2 Livingston County based districts.

The biggest question is if this county will start to turn towards the democrats due to people moving from other counties, much as that has been the case in Oakland County. So far, this has not been the case here, as democrats lost ground by percentage in 2004, even after gaining 5000 votes since President Bush gained 14000 votes. Gore ran ahead of Kerry in every municipality here. The smallest Bush gain was in Brighton Township, but he broke 65% there.

Friday, June 03, 2005

Macomb County

Macomb County:
Location – Detroit Area
Population – 788,149 (2000 Census)
Demographics – 92.66% White, 2.71% Black, .31% American Indian, 2.14% Asian, .39% Some other Race, 1.77% Two or more races, 1.58% Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
County Seat – Mount Clemens (pop 17,312)

Macomb County is one of the three major Detroit area counties in Michigan. It is a classic swing county and is the home of the “Reagan Democrats”. It has a strong independent streak in its voting. It has never forgotten its blue collar roots, and has a streak of populism. It is strongly pro-2nd Amendment, and distrustful of government, but also distrustful of big-business.

Government Officials Representing area:
Congressmen:
10th District – Candice Miller (R) – Armada, Bruce, Chestefield, Harrison, Lenox, Macomb, Ray, Richmond, Shelby, and Washington Townships. Memphis, New Baltimore, and Richmond cities, part of Sterling Heights.
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – Clinton Township, Center Line, Eastpointe, Fraser, Mount Clemens, Roseville, St. Clair Shores, Warren, and part of Sterling Heights

State Senators:
9th District – Dennis Olshove (D) – Center Line, Eastpointe, Fraser, St Clair Shores, Warren
10th District – Michael Switalski (D) – Clinton Township, Roseville, Sterling Heights, Utica
11th District – Alan Sanborn (R) – Armada, Bruce, Chesterfield, Harrison, Lenox, Macomb, Ray, Richmond, Shelby, and Washington Townships. Memphis, Mount Clemens, New Baltimore, and Richmond.

State Representative:
24th District – Jack Brandenburg (R) – Harrison and Lake Townships, St Clair Shores
25th District – Steve Bieda (D) – Northern Warren, Southern Sterling Heights
28th District – Lisa Wojno (D) – Southern Warren, Center Line
30th District – Tory Rocca (R) – Centra/Northern Sterling Heights, Utica
31st District – Fred Miller (D) – Mount Clemens, part of Fraser, part of Clinton Township
32nd District – Daniel Acciavatti (R) – Armada, Chesterfield, Lenox, and Richmond Townships. Memphis, New Baltimore, and Richmond Cities.
33rd District – Leon Drolet (R) – Macomb and Ray Townships, part of Clinton Township
36th District – Brian Palmer (R) – Bruce, Shelby, and Washington Townships
42nd District – Frank Accavitti Jr (D) – Eastpointe, Roseville, and part of Fraser

1998 Results Countywide:(Winners overall in bold)
Governor - John Engler (R) – 67.48%, Geoffrey Fieger (D) – 32.51%
Secretary of State - Candice Miller (R) – 74.18%, Mary Lou Parks (D) – 24.12%
Attorney General - John Smietanka (R) – 52.19%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 47.81%

Congress:
10th District – David Bonior (D) – 52.27%, Brian Palmer (R) – 45.41%
12th District – Sander Levin (R) – 54.41%, Leslie Touma (R) – 43.64%

State Senators:
10th District – Arthur Miller (D) – 65.35%, Linda Goff (R) – 31.97%
11th District – Ken DeBeaussaert (D) – 50.74%, Jack Brandenburg (R) – 46.74%
12th District – Dave Jaye (R) – 61.89%, Dick Kennedy (D) – 35.84%

State Representative:
26th District – William Callahan (D) – 59.72%, Barbara Urban (R) – 37.48%
27th District – Michael Switalski (D) – 70.86%, Phillip Pitters (R) – 25.92%
28th District – Paul Wojno (D) – 72.31%, Paul Welch (R) – 27.69%
29th District – Jennifer Faunce (R) – 51.47%, Charles T Busse (D) – 46.92%
30th District – Sue Rocca (R) – 70.27%, Roger Fachini (D) - 26.29%
31st District – Paul Gieleghem (D) – 52.81%, Quinnie E Cody (R) – 43.89%
32nd District – Alan Sanborn (R) – 73.82%, Aristidis Andreopoulos (D) – 22.69%
33rd District – Janet Kukuk (R) – 57.30%, Charles Locklear (D) – 40.40%

2000 Results Countywide
US Senate - Debbie Stabenow (D) – 48.58%, Spence Abraham (R) – 48.15%
Congress:
10th District – David Bonior (D) – 63.80%, Tom Turner (D) – 33.93%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 64.82%, Bart Baron (R) – 32.29%

State Representative:
26th District – William Callahan (D) – 58.80%, William Nearon (R) – 38.69%
27th District – Michael Switalski (D) – 73.27%, Jim Riske (R) – 23.93%
28th District – Paul Wojno (D) – 73.13%, Paul Welch (R) – 26.87%
29th District – Jennifer Faunce (R) – 52.33%, Steve Bieda (D) – 46.61%
30th District – Sal Rocca (R) – 61.07%, Irvin Broste (D) - 38.93%
31st District – Paul Gieleghem (D) – 61.21%, Diane Zondini (R) – 34.63%
32nd District – Alan Sanborn (R) – 66.59%, Greg Moore (D) – 30.75%
33rd District – Janet Kukuk (R) – 57.94%, Bernadette DiSano (D) – 37.46%

2002 Results Countywide
Governor – Dick Posthumus (R) – 51.64%, Jennifer Granholm (D) – 47.16%
Secretary of State - Terri Lynn Land (R) – 60.17%, Butch Hollowell (D) – 37.74%
Attorney General – Mike Cox (R) – 51.36%, Gary Peters (D) – 46.26%
US Senate - Carl Levin (D) – 60.06%, Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) – 38.58%
Congress:
10th District – Candice Miller (R) - 61.70%, Carl Marlinga (D) – 37.20%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 62.09%, Harvey Dean (R) – 35.80%

State Senate:
9th District – Dennis Olshove (D) – 60.82%, Cecelia Stevens (R) – 36.52%
10th District – Michael Switalski (D) – 53.06%, Steve Rice (R) – 45.13%
11th District – Alan Sanborn (R) – 67.94%, Jim Ayers (D) – 32.06%

State Representative:
24th District – Jack Brandenburg (R) – 53.56%, Frank Benson (D) – 43.27%
25th District – Steve Bieda (D) – 56.74%, Keith Sadowski (R) – 43.26%
28th District – Lisa Wojno (D) – 67.27%, Scott Stevens (R) – 30.87%
30th District – Sal Rocca (R) – 62.40%, Joe McHugh (D) – 37.60%
31st District - Paul Gieleghem (D) – 60.13%, Sheryl Russo (R) – 36.99%
32nd District – Daniel Acciavitti (R) – 56.92%, John Hertel (D) – 43.08%
33rd District – Leon Drolet (R) – 60.17%, Anthony Ventimiglia (D) – 39.83%
36th District – Brian Palmer (R) – 67.36%, Robert Denison (D) – 32.64%
42nd District – Frank Accavitti (D) – 64.85%, Jim Riske (R) – 31.22%

2004 Results Countywide
Congress:
10th District – Candice Miller (R) – 68.70%, Rob Casey (D) – 29.48%
12th District – Sander Levin (D) – 64.13%, Randall Shafer (R) – 34.11%

State Representative:
24th District – Jack Brandenburg (R) – 62.70%, Dan Foukes (D) – 37.30%
25th District – Steve Bieda (D) – 61.05%, Michael Wiecek (R) – 38.95%
28th District – Lisa Wojno (D) – 70.23%, Timothy Knue (R) – 28.19%
30th District – Tory Rocca (R) – 53.85%, Roger Maceroni (D) – 46.15%
31st District – Fred Miller (D) – 54.91%, William Morelli (R) – 42.64%
32nd District – Daniel Acciavitti (R) – 65.90%, Michael Landsiedel (D) – 31.85%
33rd District – Leon Drolet (R) – 60.66%, Gary Cynowa (D) – 39.34%
36th District – Brian Palmer (R) – 64.76%, Robert Murphy (D) – 35.24%
42nd District – Frank Accavitti (D) – 72.46%, Greg Fleming (R) – 27.54%

2000, 2004 Presidential Results
First number Bush, Second number Democrat
Areas that flipped are in Bold.
MACOMB COUNTY
2000 – Bush – 164265 (47.52%), Gore – 172625 (49.94%)
2004 – Bush – 202166 (50.24%), Kerry – 196160 (48.75%)

Armada Township
2000 - 1486 (57.73%), 989 (38.42%)
2004 – 1797 (62.05%), 1062 (36.67%)

Bruce Township
2000 - 2461 (60.53%), 1494 (36.74%)
2004 – 2976 (62.59%), 1731 (36.40%)

Center Line City
2000 - 1365 (37.04%), 2215 (60.11%)
2004 – 1613 (40.61%), 2312 (58.21%)

Chesterfield Township
2000 - 7656 (50.33%), 7210 (47.40%)
2004 – 10533 (53.84%), 8853 (45.25%)

Clinton Township
2000 - 19427 (46.79%), 21075 (50.76%)
2004 – 23332 (48.98%), 23842 (50.05%)

Eastpointe City
2000 - 5383 (37.46%), 8558 (59.55%)
2004 – 5838 (36.98%), 9766 (61.87%)

Fraser City
2000 - 3325 (45.96%), 3743 (51.73%)
2004 – 3893 (49.09%), 3959 (49.92%)

Harrison Township
2000 - 5608 (51.01%), 5111 (46.49%)
2004 – 6946 (53.49%), 5906 (45.48%)

Lake Township
2000 - 33 (68.75%), 13 (27.08%)
2004 – 33 (68.75%), 15 (31.25%)

Lenox Township
2000 - 1300 (48.33%), 1335 (49.63%)
2004 – 1890 (51.72%), 1736 (47.51%)

Macomb Township
2000 - 12363 (53.67%), 10249 (44.49%)
2004 – 19496 (57.20%), 14342 (42.08%)

Memphis City
2000 - 197 (53.10%), 163 (43.94%)
2004 – 227 (56.47%), 170 (42.29%)

Mount Clemens City
2000 - 2393 (36.41%), 3964 (60.31%)
2004 – 2766 (38.03%), 4419 (60.76%)

New Baltimore City
2000 - 1827 (50.98%), 1659 (46.29%)
2004 – 3103 (55.48%), 2440 (43.63%)

Ray Township
2000 - 1144 (60.50%), 711 (37.60%)
2004 – 1315 (64.56%), 707 (34.71%)

Richmond City
2000 - 1136 (51.54%), 1004 (45.55%)
2004 – 1610 (57.09%), 1177 (41.74%)

Richmond Township
2000 - 935 (60.71%), 564 (36.62%)
2004 – 1156 (62.35%), 674 (36.35%)

Roseville City
2000 - 7059 (37.16%), 11417 (60.11%)
2004 – 8660 (40.11%), 12738 (59.00%)

Shelby Township
2000 - 17109 (57.35%), 12015 (40.27%)
2004 – 20921 (60.28%), 13452 (38.76%)

St Clair Shores City
2000 - 15175 (46.08%), 16807 (51.03%)
2004 – 17512 (48.62%), 18088 (50.22%)

Sterling Heights City
2000 - 26576 (50.18%), 25158 (47.50%)
2004 – 30885 (51.28%), 28697 (47.65%)

Utica City
2000 - 976 (49.09%), 962 (48.39%)
2004 – 1147 (51.02%), 1077 (47.91%)

Warren City
2000 - 23778 (40.99%), 32697 (56.36%)
2004 – 26991 (43.25%), 34697 (55.60%)

Washington Township
2000 - 5553 (60.09%), 3512 (38.00%)
2004 – 7526 (63.10%), 4300 (36.05%)

Macomb flipped from Gore to Bush in 2004, although it was very close in both elections - under 10,000 votes in a county of about 800,000. Bush made gains in most parts of the county, more so in fast growing and GOP leaning Northern Macomb, although he gained in Southern Macomb county as well, even in democrat strongholds like Warren, Roseville, and Center Line. The only area he lost ground was in Eastpointe. Lenox township (Includes New Haven) in Northern Macomb flipped to Bush. New Haven has a significant black population, so I’m a little surprised that flipped, although the other parts of Lenox Twp are overwhelmingly white so the growth there probably offset the township.

In general, M-59 is the dividing line. Anything South usually leans democrat, and North leans GOP, and those areas in the central part county are swing areas (Clinton Township, Sterling Heights). The exceptions are Fraser, St Clair Shores, and Lenox Township.

Redistricting made some major changes in Macomb County. The old 10th District covered Eastern Macomb and St Clair County and was represented by David Bonior. It removed Clinton Township and Mt Clemens which is Bonior’s home base. It also removed democrat strongholds such as Eastpointe and Roseville, as well as democrat leaning areas such as St Clair Shores and Fraser. All of Southeastern Macomb, as well as Clinton Township and Mt Clemens, was given to Sander Levin’s district. The 10th District also added the heavily GOP thumb area, making it impossible for almost all democrats to win, especially against a top candidate like Candice Miller. The old 12th district had part of Eastpoint, all of Sterling Heights, and Warren – as well as parts of Oakland County. It now has more of Macomb than Oakland and takes in all of the most democrat areas of the county. Bonior could have run against Levin or move about 4 miles North, but he ran for governor instead.

There are still three state senatorial districts in Macomb, and they changed only slightly in partisan strength. The old districts where the 10th, 11th, and 12th. The 10th was similar to the 9th, the 11th was similar to the 10th, and 12th is similar to the 11th. One Republican, one democrat, and one that leans slightly democrat, but is winnable for the GOP. The state representative districts are somewhat similar, but Macomb added ½ of a district which is the 32nd district shared with St Clair County.

The home of the Reagan Democrats will continue to be a competitive county in 2006 and 2008.