2008 Livingston County Poll Results
The Livingston County Republicans held a 2008 poll for President at our Lincoln Day Dinner. Each attendant at the Lincoln Day Dinner had the option to vote. We had 97 voters, which was approximately half of the attendants. Each person voted once. The results are as follows:
1. Governor Mitt Romney – 24.74%
2. Senator John McCain – 18.56%
3. Senator George Allen – 17.53%
4. Congressman Mike Pence – 14.43%
5. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich – 11.34%
6. Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani – 10.30%
7. Congressman Tom Tancredo – 1.03%
Secretary Condoleezza Rice – 1.03%
Senator Sam Brownback – 1.03%
I expected Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to win. Romney is a Michigan native who spoke at the Mackinac Leadership Conference and neighboring Oakland County’s Lincoln Day dinner. His dad is former Governor George Romney. He is running as a conservative. Those are all factors in his popularity and high name recognition. He is the frontrunner in Michigan.
Senator John McCain finished better than I expected. I expected him to trade places with Giuliani because of the McCain/Feingold Campaign Finance Law and his Second Amendment stance. His military background was a major factor in his 2nd place showing as Livingston County is a very pro-military county. (This was also one of Bob Dole's best counties - as beat Clinton by 13% despite Ross Perot in a state he won by 13%)
Virginia Senator George Allen I expected to finish in the top three. He recently spoke at a FreedomWorks event in Michigan that drew 150 people. He voted against that infamous “Bridge to Nowhere.” He is running as a center-right conservative.
Indiana Congressman Mike Pence was a major surprise. There is a significant Pence 2008 movement, but it is nearly exclusively in the blogging world. The most common question asked about him was "Who’s Mike Pence?" However, those that knew him, liked him. He is the chair of the Republican Study Committee in the house, which is the conservative caucus. The Republican Study Committee last week introduced a balanced budget based on the 1995 Contract With America. If the bloggers are successful in drafting him for president, he could be a strong dark horse candidate with the current overspending in Washington.
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich is going to be a wildcard in 2008. He placed fifth, which is not that surprising considering he is just getting back into the news again after being six years removed from being Speaker of the House. He could be moving up once again as many republicans have moved away from the Contract with America.
Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani I expected to be in McCain’s place. “Mayor 9/11” still could be formidable candidate. I expected him to do better since a lot of conservatives I know give him a pass on his social issues and Second Amendment stance due to 9/11. That might not be the case anymore.
Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo only received one vote, which surprised me since he has some support in Michigan. His main issue is illegal immigration. Immigration is not as big of an issue among the dinner attendees as it is elsewhere.
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson was included, but surprisingly did not receive a vote. There were limited options, and those who stated they were not running in 2008 were excluded from the poll - Condoleezza Rice, Dick Cheney, Jeb Bush, and Mark Sanford (my first choice for president) were not included. Others not included, but may be included in future polls are Sam Brownback, Bill Owens, Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty, Bill Frist, and Mike Huckabee. The next poll will probably switch Thompson and Brownback.
Full Disclosure – I voted for Mike Pence.
This was an interesting poll. While it is not scientific, it still gives a general synopsis of the current situation for president in Livingston County. Livingston County is a very key county for Republicans in Michigan primary races, and those who attend a Lincoln Day Dinners are most apt to be primary election voters.
The 2008 race will be followed extensively at the Republican Michigander. We will update you all as more information develops.