Friday, August 04, 2006

Primary Predictions

I'm going to probably stick my size 13 boot in my mouth with some of these, but we'll see.

Primary Predictions
Outstate:
Ned Lamont beats Joe Lieberman in Connecticutt 54-46
Cynthia McKinney hangs on in Dekalb County GA's runoff against Hank Johnson 51-49

Senate - Upset Special:
Keith Butler edges Mike Bouchard 51-49. Evangelical turnout causes a shocker. I'm still undecided on this and will likely be so until I show up at the polls.

Congress:
District 7 - I hope I'm wrong, but I think Schwarz hangs on due to establishment support, a lucky break by the NRA's poor decision, and democrat crossvotes. That said, it will be very close. 52-48 Schwarz.

District 8 - Mike Rogers wins easily. Flynn gets some hardliners and democrat crossvotes, but not enough. Mike's no Joe Schwarz and keeps most of his conservative support. 82-18.

District 9 - Pan Godchaux is running on the left flank of Joe Knollenberg. Knollenberg's faced tough challenges before in generals (David Fink), but not in primary. The bad news for Godchaux is that primaries bring out conservative voters, and gun owners will be out for Knollenberg as well for this one. Knollenberg wins 71-29.

State Senate
Valde Garcia is challenged by Barton Hellmuth. Hellmuth isn't spending a dime, and his comment in the paper on raising diesel taxes is not going to go over well here. 82-18 Garcia wins.

Judicial Races
District - Theresa Brennan and Jay Drick move on to the general. 42-40-18 Brennan, Drick, and Heikkinen in that order - setting up a major battle in November.

District - Bill McCririe has the most election experience and will move on to the general. The other spot is probably a tossup. I except the west side to back Linda Walker, and Carol Sue Reader to do better in the Howell and Brighton area. The question is whether Fowlerville votes for Walker as much as they did for Hune.

Probate - Toughest for me to predict since anything can happen in six way races. I'll predict Bob Parker and Roberta Balon-Vaugn due to election experience, but anything can happen here. If I'm wrong in a prediction, it'll be here.

Millages
Renewals pass
ALL of the new ones FAIL.

30 comments:

jusmyopin said...

I think you got the probate wrong. A better prediction would be Lyle Dickson and Roberta. How about some predictions for the general election....Let's start with Chris Ward pounces his opponent, what's his name again??? Mc what?????

Republican Michigander said...
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Republican Michigander said...

Mc...Mc...I got it McKevins......

I'd much rather see Lyle Dickson and Roberta Balon-Vaughn both make it to the final. Would it happen or not, I don't know.

Not-a-RINO said...

Yeah, you're right, MyOpin--just what we don't need is a "Mc Politician".

I think Butler will win with 52%.If Fidel Castro is too ill and his brother won't take over, liberal do-nothing Stabenow should consider taking the job.

Schwartz will lose with only 45% of the vote.

Mike Rogers is a winner with 67%.

Chris Ward will win with 65% against 'Mc Who?'

De Vos wins with 60%. With the way the economy is in this state, I am sure Granholm will be looking at other states to find a job.

It will be Drick and Brennan in November.

I would like to see Lyle Dickson and Roberta Balon-Vaughn in November.

These are just my humble predictions--I am a zillion times more humble than the average person. =:o)

Not-a-RINO said...

I agree that ALL new millages will lose handily. Times are tough in Michigan and we certainly don't need any more taxes! I hope the voters send a strong message out that they are not willing to pay more for services so government leaders have to be better stewards of taxpayer's money.

Chris Arndt said...

Schwartz will lose.

He's been desperate to hold onto the seat for two years.

All of his flaws as televised are obvious.

Everything good he did in office are things anyone could have pulled off.

James B. Teela said...

Primary Predictions

Outstate:
Joe Lieberman beats Ned Lamont.

Hank Johnson beats Cynthia McKinney

Senate
No upset here. Keith Butler does edge Mike Bouchard 51-49 and give us our best opportunity to beat Stabenow in November

Congress:
District 7
Schwarz loses to Walberg by big margin -- establishment or not.

District 8 -
Mike Rogers stomps Flynn.

District 9 -
Knollenberg wins with 60%

State Senate
Garcia wins easily.

Judicial Races
District - Theresa Brennan and Jay Drick move on to the general.

District - Bill McCririe and Carol Sue Reader move on to November

Probate - Roberta Balon-Vaugn and Parker

goprightchoice said...

there has been so much hype about the district court race that everyone forgets that it is the probate judge that truly handles right to life issues. if a "liberal" gets into office, then we all have something to worry about.

MYGOP2006 said...

I must agree with “goprightchoice”. Parker however would be a scary choice as a Probate Judge, No people skills or compassion for families at all and is a Pro Lifer with proven Democratic views. Even though I think he will make it to November. ($$$) The clear choice would be Balon-Vaughn who has the most balanced and complete resume of the group and the administration experience to show fiscal responsibility. Dugas is too volatile and quick tempered with no administration background. Gargiola is a joke. She has been living in Livingston County exactly 18 months and didn't even register to vote until 8 months ago. She has never voted in a primary or a general election in Livingston County. Kandt is just trying to get his name out there. Oemke is a Democrat and also a Pro Life supporter. Dickson is a go-getter. With very limited people skills. May be the dark horse in this race, but no real administration experience?

District 8 -
Mike Rogers stomps Flynn. Though I'm concerned with Mike's politics. He is starting to look like a bought politician.

State Senate
Garcia wins easily. I think he’s the right choice here.

Judicial Races
District - Theresa Brennan and Jay Drick move on to the general. I will not support either candidate.

District - Bill McCririe and Carol Sue Reader will move on to the November election. Scary thought. All the District Judges will be related. Don’t tell me they don't talk shop!

goprightchoice said...

FYI, Lyle Dickson is a former city manager and has a masters degree in public administration from U of M. He is also a former police sergeant and prosecuting attorney. He actually has more administrative experience than all the others combined. On top of it, he has passed new legislation on drunk driving, annexation law and has new adoption laws proposed.

MYGOP2006 said...

Lyle Dickson is your stereo typical State Policeman. Not saying he isn't educated. But his experience does not lend itself to the family courts. He should try a district judge position which I personally think he would excel at. Besides he isn't related to anyone currently serving in Livingston County.
But from a probate court view point, he is truly lacking in people skills and family law expertise.
Can you explain to me what annexation law has to do with Probat Court? IS drunk driving handled at the Probate Court?

Patrick Flynn said...

"Mike Rogers stomps Flynn."

Well people, don't let that happen. It's up to you.

Check the facts:

Mike's OK with the party's move to the left.

He opposed Michigan's Human Life Amendment.

He gave $10,000 to liberal Joe Schwarz this cycle.

After researching the database, It's apparent he did not personally sign Michigan's marriage amendment petition in 2004.

He is pro affirmative action and opposed to MCRI as a Michigander.

He is not opposed to the destruction of human embryos, only specific funding.

Finally, he's evasive with his constituents when dealing with hot-button topics.

He's not a jerk or a creep. He is most likely a devoted husband and father. His politics and policies, however, are subject to both scrutiny and challenge.

People just need to do the right thing in the voting booth.

goprightchoice said...

Did you know that Lyle Dickson is the co-chair of the juvenile law section in Washtenaw County. He trains all the lawyers who want to do court appointments in abuse and neglect and juvenile deliquency. He also handled all the probate prosecutions in mental health, child support, and extraditions which are part of the "probate" experience. Afterall, the "family division" used to be the Probate Division until the legislature separated them about 8 years ago or so. He's even prosecuted juvenile murderers, rapists, carjackers, etc in detroit which were "probate cases" and now are family division cases of the circuit court. Has Parker of Balon Vaughn ever done any of those? i think not. Let's not forget the the Probate Judge is also Circuit Judge in our county.

goprightchoice said...

PS: and let's not forget that Dickson has proposed new adoption laws which may be in the newspaper soon, i hear, and that's pure probate stuff. Has any other candidate done that? Granted, he's an ex-cop, but don't you think that his experience as a prosecutor, cop and now defense lawyer let's him view things in their totality rather than from a one-sided viewpoint?

goprightchoice said...

PSS: yes, drunk driving involving juveniles is held at the probate / family division of the circuit court level. sorry, i forgot to mention that. So are all juvenile crimes.

MYGOP2006 said...
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MYGOP2006 said...

Are these comments paid for by the elect Lyle Dickson campaign? Or is this his Mom? Fact remains the same with Lyle, "NO PEOPLE SKILLS" He couldn't even find Livingston County residents to put his signs up in their yards! I believe every sign is in the easement along the road. True this does not win elections, however peoples support does! I personally would support him for a District Court position maybe even a Circuit Court position, dealing with the criminal aspect of law all the time. I don't think he doesn't fits Livingston Counties Probate Court needs.

Redneck said...

I hope Butler Wins!

oreely said...

Let's see if logic prevails. Balon Vaugh has the most balanced and complete resume of the probate candidates. WOW to support this assumption pot shots are taken at all the candidates. Hmmm....Oemke is a democrat...I think we have been there and done that...Parker has to much money....I should be so lucky....Dugas is volatile...ah this is why she has worked with and helped our children and seniors for years....Garagiola is a joke....you may think domestic violence against women and children is a joke but some believe it is no laughing matter....Dickson is a go getter with no administration skills-does this mean he doesn't have a part time job as city treasurer?....Kandt just wants his name out there - well don't we all. The candidate attacks clearly make Balon Vaugh the best choice for she is the ultimate politician who chooses to have others sling her mud! Sound bites - what a beautiful thing. Work a few years, get a divorce (does this mean that she could't work out her own family problems and she wants to make decisions about our families?), date a has been hockey player and walla.....you are the most balanced and qualified for probate judge. Oh yes... her adminstration skills include all the illegal signs in county rights of way and just about wherever she pleases without permission. Hmm...now that is respect for our citizens!

AuH2ORepublican said...

I think Walberg will win. This morning the liberal Politics1.com reported the following:

"I would not be surprised to see Walberg win by 55-45 or so vote [if the] turnout is below the 73,500 votes cast in 2004," said a reliable source associated with Schwarz's campaign.

I would predict a 56%-44% victory for Walberg. Schwarz goes down, and will likely have to retire from politics.

I'm surprised that everyone seems to predict a slim victory for Keith Butler. Every poll I've seen shows Bouchard up by 10% or so. Have any recent polls placed Butler within striking distance?

McKinney is going to lose 53%-47%. She can't count on her usual support in South DeKalb, and since the first round Johnson has been able to raise enough money to become well known throughout the district.

Unfortunately, Lamont will defeat Lieberman by 55%-45%. If Lieberman wins the Democrat nomination, so many liberals will stay home in November that it will be impossible for the Democrats to beat the state's three congressional RINOs, but with Lamont on the ballot at least two of those districts will be close.

Republican Michigander said...

AuH2O - Walberg's chances depend on where the turnout comes from. If it is Battle Creek and Eaton County (his State Senate district), Schwarz wins. If it is Lenawee and Hillsdale Counties, Walberg wins. The key swings are Jackson, West Washtenaw, and Branch counties.

As for Butler/Bouchard, no one has really run away with the momentum. I'm following my gut on that one.

goprightchoice said...

in regards to Dickson, i think i've shot down every argument that you've made against him. People skills? where exactly does he lack "people skills"? obviously you've had some kind of personal issue with him.

according to the blog poll, he's #1 right now, and he's done it by coming from behind. he hasn't been stagnant in the polls like balon-vaughn who padded the polls early in her favor.

and i think everyone has signs out there in the right of way. try to come up with a better argument why Dickson is not the best choice, cuz so far, i'm not convinced, but i'm open minded.

LuvPoliJunkie said...

For Probate, anyone but Parker or Garagiola. If you saw Parker at the debate in Howell you saw he's arrogant beyond belief. Also because of his age he can only serve for one term. Why would we want a judge who can only serve for six years.? And ask yourself why no attorneys in the county are endorsing him.

Garagiola is trying to get elected on her husband's name. She's probably OK, but she just moved here. She also seemed pretty arrogant at the debate.

I think Balon-Vaughn is going to win one of the two spots. Her experience beyond being a lawyer seems to be getting noticed. Oemke also seems qualified, but not many people are talking about her having a chance to win.

For the one district spot, I think it'll be McCririe and Walker.

For the other district spot, they're all bad. Brennan and Drick will obviously move on but I don't want to vote for anyone.

MYGOP2006 said...
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MYGOP2006 said...

WOW! Oreely slow down. Did someone touch a little sensitive spot here??? Wow. To go personal shows so much style. I stated my opinions on the candidates and you blow a nut! Takes allot of thought as to what camp you come from. Next time choose your words more carefully. Oh by the way, Good Luck tomorrow. :)

MYGOP2006 said...

Rightchoice, I'm not going to debate sign locations either. (To many of them anyway) I rather hear what the candidates have to say. I'm not going to debate that Mr. Dickson is educated. He is. I stated my own personal feelings. Nothing more. People get so sensitive this time of year.

MYGOP2006 said...

Oreely, after sleeping on your comments I felt I should clue you into a few bits of information. #1- currently almost 50% of marriages in the United States end up in divorce. A very sad, but true stat. So I don't think that is a big surprise or a compelling argument. #2 - I don't believe she is dating the “has been” hockey player. (She has been campaigning with her Ex-Husband. I saw him at all the debates.) The “has been” hockey guy has helped her with raising funds for her campaign. I got a chance to meet him at Lakeland C.C. at a private function. Did you know he helps raise Thousands of dollars for local Livingston County charities? And as you stated, it’s always better to be a "has been" then a never was! Again, we all should be so lucky.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THE CANDIDATES TODAY. YOU "ALL" ARE A CREDIT TO OUR COMMUNITY BY GETTING INVOLVED!

The Adrian Insider said...

If Joe Schwarz loses the primary today against Tim Walberg, will he turn and run as an Independent in November? The Adrian Insider seeks your input on this question as tonight's election results near.
www.adrianinsider.blogspot.com

oreely said...

Ah ha...whats good for the goose is not good for the gander. Sensitive. We all have a camp and ours prefers fairness for all the candidates rather than a mud slinging personal attack. Sorry sleep was lost on this simple point. You just don't run for a judicial office after a few years as a paper boy. All the candidates have worked hard and deserve our respect. Now there's a novel idea.

MYGOP2006 said...

Will agree to that point they get our respect. But I'd much rather see them earn the respect by doing a good job with follow thru. thank you for your concern over my sleep.