Saturday, April 17, 2010

Michigan 15th District (MI-15) Updated

Update 8-4-2010 - Primary result

Michigan's 15th District - Congress

Incumbent - John Dingell (D-Dearborn)
Years in office as of 2010 election - 55
Cook District Numbers - D+13

GOP Candidates - Rob Steele

Dem Candidate - John Dingell

Barone’s numbers
2008:
Obama - 66%
McCain - 32%

2004:
Kerry - 62%
Bush - 38%

2000
Gore - 60%
Bush - 38%


This district was created to combine two democrat incumbents at the time.Lynn Rivers represented Ann  Arbor, Ypsilanti, and Western Wayne County. John Dingell represented southern Wayne County and Monroe County. The primary pitted two different styles of democrats. The populist labor friend of the auto industry which dominates suburban Wayne County,  and the feminist, green, anti-gunner which dominates the Ann Arbor area. Dingell won, and showed that at then 76 years of age in 2002, he could still campaign with the best of them. Dingell's been in office for 55 years. He originally represented part of the City of Detroit. Now his district is based in part of Downriver.

This district covers all of Monroe County. It also covers in Washtenaw County - The City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Township, Augusta Township, City of Milan, Pittsfield Township, part of Scio Township, Superior Township, York Township, the City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Township. In Wayne County, it covers Brownstown Township, Part of Dearborn, Part of Dearborn Heights, Flat Rock, Huron Township, Inkster, Rockwood,  Romulus, Sumpter Township, Taylor, and Woodhaven. Most of this area votes for democrats, although Monroe County, Augusta Twp, York Twp, Huron Twp, Flat Rock, and Woodhaven is sometimes competitive. It would take a 1994 type of year to win this district. John Engler did it though, possibly twice.

Here's Dingell's 2008 numbers.

2008 Elections Lynch Dingell 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Monroe County 27,428 45,890 2829      76,147 -18462 36.02% 60.27% -24.25%
Washtenaw County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor 10,300 46,520 3275      60,095 -36220 17.14% 77.41% -60.27%
Ann Arbor Township 769 1,768 78        2,615 -999 29.41% 67.61% -38.20%
Augusta Township 1,127 2,104 177        3,408 -977 33.07% 61.74% -28.67%
City of Milan  678 1,118 100        1,896 -440 35.76% 58.97% -23.21%
Pittsfield Township 4,563 10,743 677      15,983 -6180 28.55% 67.22% -38.67%
Scio Township (4) 41 115 2          158 -74 25.95% 72.78% -46.84%
Scio Township (7)
2
             2 -2 0.00% 100.00% -100.00%
Scio Township (8) 72 135 5          212 -63 33.96% 63.68% -29.72%
Scio Township (9) 5 22 4            31 -17 16.13% 70.97% -54.84%
Superior Township 1,848 4,790 247        6,885 -2942 26.84% 69.57% -42.73%
York Township 1,981 1,979 173        4,133 2 47.93% 47.88% 0.05%
City of Ypsilanti 1,170 7,185 638        8,993 -6015 13.01% 79.90% -66.89%
Ypsilanti Township 5,425 19,017 1111      25,553 -13592 21.23% 74.42% -53.19%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brownstown Township 3,658 9,580 443      13,681 -5922 26.74% 70.02% -43.29%
City of Dearborn 5,581 12,242 781      18,604 -6661 30.00% 65.80% -35.80%
Dearborn Heights 4,660 13,465 757      18,882 -8805 24.68% 71.31% -46.63%
City of Flat Rock 1,220 2,859 170        4,249 -1639 28.71% 67.29% -38.57%
Huron Township 2,506 4,504 347        7,357 -1998 34.06% 61.22% -27.16%
City of Inkster 561 11,059 270      11,890 -10498 4.72% 93.01% -88.29%
City of Rockwood 435 1,064 55        1,554 -629 27.99% 68.47% -40.48%
City of Romulus 1,605 9,335 426      11,366 -7730 14.12% 82.13% -68.01%
Sumpter Township 1,194 3,096 249        4,539 -1902 26.31% 68.21% -41.90%
City of Taylor 5,750 18,937 1294      25,981 -13187 22.13% 72.89% -50.76%
City of Woodhaven 1,925 4,265 227        6,417 -2340 30.00% 66.46% -36.47%









Total 84,502 231,794 14,335 330,631 -147292 25.56% 70.11% -44.55%


Here's the Presidential numbers broken down by county in the district. I skipped the Scio Township numbers since they were so insignificant parts of a precinct. That means these numbers are more democrat, while the 7th District numbers are slightly more republican.


Monroe County
2000 - Gore 51.07%, Bush 46.84%, 61,785 votes, -2615 vote spread
2004 - Bush 50.54%, Kerry 48.68%, 74,132 votes, 1381 vote spread
2008 - Obama 51.27%, McCain 46.92%, 73502 votes, -3322 vote spread

Washtenaw County Portion
2000 - Gore 67.84%, Bush 30.80%, 105530 votes, -35953 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 69.62%, Bush 29.29%, 124181 votes, -50083 vote spread
2008 - Obama 75.64%, McCain 22.99%, 135100 votes, -71129 vote spread

Wayne County Portion
2000 - Gore 60.12%, Bush 37.56%, 95,965 votes, -21643 vote spread
2004 - Kerry 60.29%, Bush 38.87%, 115802 votes, -24800 vote spread
2008 - Obama 64.29%, McCain 33.98%, 129,313 votes -39191 vote spread.

Here's the 2000 numbers. Surprisingly today, Bush actually won normally democrat Dearborn that year. I think Joe Lieberman may have something to do with that. It's flipped in a big way since then, going back to its roots (Dingell's represented Dearborn since 1966) after the Iraq war.


2000 Elections Bush Gore 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Monroe County 28,940 31,555 1290      61,785 -2615 46.84% 51.07% -4.23%
Washtenaw County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor 13,473 36,597 2826      52,896 -23124 25.47% 69.19% -43.72%
Ann Arbor Township 1,167 1,491 79        2,737 -324 42.64% 54.48% -11.84%
Augusta Township 1,037 1,201 89        2,327 -164 44.56% 51.61% -7.05%
City of Milan  656 735 28        1,419 -79 46.23% 51.80% -5.57%
Pittsfield Township 5,183 6,833 390      12,406 -1650 41.78% 55.08% -13.30%
Scio Township (4)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Superior Township 1,704 2,973 132        4,809 -1269 35.43% 61.82% -26.39%
York Township 1,740 1,291 87        3,118 449 55.81% 41.40% 14.40%
City of Ypsilanti 1,459 4,681 365        6,505 -3222 22.43% 71.96% -49.53%
Ypsilanti Township 6,088 12,658 567      19,313 -6570 31.52% 65.54% -34.02%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brownstown Township 3,412 4,944 191        8,547 -1532 39.92% 57.84% -17.92%
City of Dearborn


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D31 253 237 20          510 16 49.61% 46.47% 3.14%
D32 284 249 18          551 35 51.54% 45.19% 6.35%
D33 320 300 18          638 20 50.16% 47.02% 3.13%
D34 350 285 26          661 65 52.95% 43.12% 9.83%
D35 266 188 10          464 78 57.33% 40.52% 16.81%
D36 180 148 7          335 32 53.73% 44.18% 9.55%
D37 156 161 10          327 -5 47.71% 49.24% -1.53%
D38 158 145 15          318 13 49.69% 45.60% 4.09%
D39 213 133 12          358 80 59.50% 37.15% 22.35%
D40 263 201 13          477 62 55.14% 42.14% 13.00%
D41 278 137 7          422 141 65.88% 32.46% 33.41%
D42 377 213 15          605 164 62.31% 35.21% 27.11%
D43 246 216 13          475 30 51.79% 45.47% 6.32%
D44 295 219 20          534 76 55.24% 41.01% 14.23%
D45 230 181 13          424 49 54.25% 42.69% 11.56%
D46 296 125 14          435 171 68.05% 28.74% 39.31%
D47 231 201 20          452 30 51.11% 44.47% 6.64%
D48 226 155 14          395 71 57.22% 39.24% 17.97%
D49 153 163 14          330 -10 46.36% 49.39% -3.03%
D50 100 155 10          265 -55 37.74% 58.49% -20.75%
D955


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D956


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D957


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D958


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Dearborn Heights 11,049 12,574 757      24,380 -1525 45.32% 51.58% -6.26%
DH 6 -158 -196 -16         (370) 38 42.70% 52.97% -10.27%
DH7 -266 -290 -19         (575) 24 46.26% 50.43% -4.17%
DH8 -268 -227 -12         (507) -41 52.86% 44.77% 8.09%
DH9 -181 -227 -15         (423) 46 42.79% 53.66% -10.87%
DH10 -160 -218 -14         (392) 58 40.82% 55.61% -14.80%
DH11 -206 -221 -15         (442) 15 46.61% 50.00% -3.39%
DH12 -187 -297 -11         (495) 110 37.78% 60.00% -22.22%
DH13 -267 -262 -12         (541) -5 49.35% 48.43% 0.92%
DH37 -113 -235 -9         (357) 122 31.65% 65.83% -34.17%
DH38 -216 -246 -12         (474) 30 45.57% 51.90% -6.33%
DH941 -409 -478 -21         (908) 69 45.04% 52.64% -7.60%
DH942 -20 -38
          (58) 18 34.48% 65.52% -31.03%
City of Flat Rock 1,259 1,769 71        3,099 -510 40.63% 57.08% -16.46%
Huron Township 2,602 3,053 120        5,775 -451 45.06% 52.87% -7.81%
City of Inkster 976 8,210 102        9,288 -7234 10.51% 88.39% -77.89%
City of Rockwood 609 870 42        1,521 -261 40.04% 57.20% -17.16%
City of Romulus 2,106 5,930 164        8,200 -3824 25.68% 72.32% -46.63%
Sumpter Township 1,467 2,563 69        4,099 -1096 35.79% 62.53% -26.74%
City of Taylor 7,718 13,708 488      21,914 -5990 35.22% 62.55% -27.33%
City of Woodhaven 2,427 3,194 87        5,708 -767 42.52% 55.96% -13.44%









Total 97,496 157,707 8,077 263,280 -60211 37.03% 59.90% -22.87%


Here's the 2004 numbers.

2004 Elections Bush Kerry 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Monroe County 37,470 36,089 573      74,132 1381 50.54% 48.68% 1.86%
Washtenaw County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor 13,153 45,117 700      58,970 -31964 22.30% 76.51% -54.20%
Ann Arbor Township 1,083 1,787 10        2,880 -704 37.60% 62.05% -24.44%
Augusta Township 1,411 1,599 42        3,052 -188 46.23% 52.39% -6.16%
City of Milan  822 822 17        1,661 0 49.49% 49.49% 0.00%
Pittsfield Township 5,839 9,271 157      15,267 -3432 38.25% 60.73% -22.48%
Scio Township (4)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Superior Township 2,227 3,948 44        6,219 -1721 35.81% 63.48% -27.67%
York Township 2,367 1,623 23        4,013 744 58.98% 40.44% 18.54%
City of Ypsilanti 1,581 6,046 125        7,752 -4465 20.39% 77.99% -57.60%
Ypsilanti Township 7,887 16,240 240      24,367 -8353 32.37% 66.65% -34.28%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brownstown Township 5,369 6,916 114      12,399 -1547 43.30% 55.78% -12.48%
City of Dearborn


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D31 323 343 8          674 -20 47.92% 50.89% -2.97%
D32 363 266 10          639 97 56.81% 41.63% 15.18%
D33 286 278 2          566 8 50.53% 49.12% 1.41%
D34 366 341 11          718 25 50.97% 47.49% 3.48%
D35 288 231 3          522 57 55.17% 44.25% 10.92%
D36 283 168 6          457 115 61.93% 36.76% 25.16%
D37 380 241 1          622 139 61.09% 38.75% 22.35%
D38 264 237 5          506 27 52.17% 46.84% 5.34%
D39 295 253 7          555 42 53.15% 45.59% 7.57%
D40 245 214 6          465 31 52.69% 46.02% 6.67%
D41 263 212 5          480 51 54.79% 44.17% 10.63%
D42 229 234 10          473 -5 48.41% 49.47% -1.06%
D43 207 280 2          489 -73 42.33% 57.26% -14.93%
D44 255 364 10          629 -109 40.54% 57.87% -17.33%
D45 233 199 7          439 34 53.08% 45.33% 7.74%
D46 256 252 11          519 4 49.33% 48.55% 0.77%
D47 250 262 9          521 -12 47.98% 50.29% -2.30%
D48 237 286 9          532 -49 44.55% 53.76% -9.21%
D49 216 260 5          481 -44 44.91% 54.05% -9.15%
D50 212 235 7          454 -23 46.70% 51.76% -5.07%
D955


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D956


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D957


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D958


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Dearborn Heights 11,128 14,902 285      26,315 -3774 42.29% 56.63% -14.34%
DH 6 -148 -257 -1         (406) 109 36.45% 63.30% -26.85%
DH7 -288 -380 -13         (681) 92 42.29% 55.80% -13.51%
DH8 -238 -274 -8         (520) 36 45.77% 52.69% -6.92%
DH9 -195 -232 -8         (435) 37 44.83% 53.33% -8.51%
DH10 -152 -237 -11         (400) 85 38.00% 59.25% -21.25%
DH11 -272 -301 -14         (587) 29 46.34% 51.28% -4.94%
DH12 -243 -336 -9         (588) 93 41.33% 57.14% -15.82%
DH13 -253 -263 -4         (520) 10 48.65% 50.58% -1.92%
DH37 -108 -263 -3         (374) 155 28.88% 70.32% -41.44%
DH38 -208 -282 -11         (501) 74 41.52% 56.29% -14.77%
DH941 -82 -119 -3         (204) 37 40.20% 58.33% -18.14%
DH942 -602 -776 -17       (1,395) 174 43.15% 55.63% -12.47%
City of Flat Rock 1,917 2,233 37        4,187 -316 45.78% 53.33% -7.55%
Huron Township 3,578 3,417 53        7,048 161 50.77% 48.48% 2.28%
City of Inkster 1,254 9,729 51      11,034 -8475 11.36% 88.17% -76.81%
City of Rockwood 759 948 10        1,717 -189 44.21% 55.21% -11.01%
City of Romulus 2,848 7,563 80      10,491 -4715 27.15% 72.09% -44.94%
Sumpter Township 1,979 2,963 38        4,980 -984 39.74% 59.50% -19.76%
City of Taylor 10,444 16,377 225      27,046 -5933 38.62% 60.55% -21.94%
City of Woodhaven 3,076 3,330 49        6,455 -254 47.65% 51.59% -3.93%









Total 118,854 192,356 2,905 314,115 -73502 37.84% 61.24% -23.40%

Here's the 2008 numbers.


2008 Elections McCain Obama 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
Monroe County 35,858 39,180 1384      76,422 -3322 46.92% 51.27% -4.35%
Washtenaw County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
City of Ann Arbor 10,712 51,587 836      63,135 -40875 16.97% 81.71% -64.74%
Ann Arbor Township 829 1,836 23        2,688 -1007 30.84% 68.30% -37.46%
Augusta Township 1,489 1,979 78        3,546 -490 41.99% 55.81% -13.82%
City of Milan  802 1,151 31        1,984 -349 40.42% 58.01% -17.59%
Pittsfield Township 5,042 11,342 210      16,594 -6300 30.38% 68.35% -37.97%
Scio Township (4)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (7)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (8)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Scio Township (9)


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Superior Township 2,048 4,951 109        7,108 -2903 28.81% 69.65% -40.84%
York Township 2,313 1,934 56        4,303 379 53.75% 44.95% 8.81%
City of Ypsilanti 1,306 7,828 170        9,304 -6522 14.04% 84.14% -70.10%
Ypsilanti Township 6,517 19,579 342      26,438 -13062 24.65% 74.06% -49.41%
Wayne County:


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brownstown Township 5,373 8,668 138      14,179 -3295 37.89% 61.13% -23.24%
City of Dearborn


            -   0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
D31 212 423 8          643 -211 32.97% 65.79% -32.81%
D32 280 389 14          683 -109 41.00% 56.95% -15.96%
D33 230 350 10          590 -120 38.98% 59.32% -20.34%
D34 402 581 22        1,005 -179 40.00% 57.81% -17.81%
D35 261 351 10          622 -90 41.96% 56.43% -14.47%
D36 269 370 16          655 -101 41.07% 56.49% -15.42%
D37 250 306 12          568 -56 44.01% 53.87% -9.86%
D38 300 301 11          612 -1 49.02% 49.18% -0.16%
D39 316 360 9          685 -44 46.13% 52.55% -6.42%
D40 286 302 8          596 -16 47.99% 50.67% -2.68%
D41 415 381 9          805 34 51.55% 47.33% 4.22%
D42 276 344 10          630 -68 43.81% 54.60% -10.79%
D43 365 387 20          772 -22 47.28% 50.13% -2.85%
D44 441 471 24          936 -30 47.12% 50.32% -3.21%
D45 373 598 27          998 -225 37.37% 59.92% -22.55%
D46 355 540 16          911 -185 38.97% 59.28% -20.31%
D47 269 390 17          676 -121 39.79% 57.69% -17.90%
D48 281 373 9          663 -92 42.38% 56.26% -13.88%
D49 380 574 31          985 -194 38.58% 58.27% -19.70%
D50 277 490 18          785 -213 35.29% 62.42% -27.13%
D955 630 580 16        1,226 50 51.39% 47.31% 4.08%
D956 544 532 12        1,088 12 50.00% 48.90% 1.10%
D957 573 655 27        1,255 -82 45.66% 52.19% -6.53%
D958 465 491 19          975 -26 47.69% 50.36% -2.67%
Dearborn Heights 9,466 16,095 543      26,104 -6629 36.26% 61.66% -25.39%
DH 6 -96 -313 -5         (414) 217 23.19% 75.60% -52.42%
DH7 -242 -413 -9         (664) 171 36.45% 62.20% -25.75%
DH8 -196 -281 -7         (484) 85 40.50% 58.06% -17.56%
DH9 -142 -282 -8         (432) 140 32.87% 65.28% -32.41%
DH10 -126 -216 -10         (352) 90 35.80% 61.36% -25.57%
DH11 -185 -321 -10         (516) 136 35.85% 62.21% -26.36%
DH12 -180 -331 -13         (524) 151 34.35% 63.17% -28.82%
DH13 -199 -280 -8         (487) 81 40.86% 57.49% -16.63%
DH37 -86 -305 -7         (398) 219 21.61% 76.63% -55.03%
DH38 -162 -278 -20         (460) 116 35.22% 60.43% -25.22%
DH941 -71 -144 -4         (219) 73 32.42% 65.75% -33.33%
DH942 -697 -804 -36       (1,537) 107 45.35% 52.31% -6.96%
City of Flat Rock 1,807 2,504 101        4,412 -697 40.96% 56.75% -15.80%
Huron Township 3,669 3,852 176        7,697 -183 47.67% 50.05% -2.38%
City of Inkster 699 11,340 72      12,111 -10641 5.77% 93.63% -87.86%
City of Rockwood 678 900 39        1,617 -222 41.93% 55.66% -13.73%
City of Romulus 2,404 9,202 164      11,770 -6798 20.42% 78.18% -57.76%
Sumpter Township 1,696 2,961 84        4,741 -1265 35.77% 62.46% -26.68%
City of Taylor 9,224 17,264 563      27,051 -8040 34.10% 63.82% -29.72%
City of Woodhaven 2,863 3,781 110        6,754 -918 42.39% 55.98% -13.59%









Total 110,863 224,505 5,467 340,835 -113642 32.53% 65.87% -33.34%


The farm club has mostly democrat areas, but not all of them are.

St. Senate 18th - Covers the City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Twp, Augusta Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lyndon Twp, Northfield Twp, a small portion of Pittsfield Twp, Salem Twp, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Superior Twp, Sylvan Twp, City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti Twp in Washtenaw County. This is one of the most democrat state senate seats in the state. Most of this is in the 15th District (Dingell), but some of this is in the 7th.


St Senate 18th GOP Dem





06 - Kopinski/Brater 29,075 72,774 3    101,852 -43699 28.55% 71.45% -42.90%
02 - Darr/Brater 27,726 52,912 2635      83,273 -25186 33.30% 63.54% -30.25%

St. Senate 17th - Covers all of Monroe County, Grass Lake, Leoni, Norvell, and Summit Twps in Jackson County, and Bridgwater Twp, Lodi Twp, Manchester Twp, city of Milan, Pittsfield Twp, City of Saline, Saline Twp, and York Twp in Washtenaw County. This is another swing district. Monroe County is a swing county that has gone democrat more than republican. The rest of the area swings as well, although Washtenaw County portion is more democrat and the Jackson County portion more republican, although neither overwhelmingly so (Jackson thanks to Leoni, Washtenaw, thanks to everything but Pittsfield).The Jackson County and some of the Washtenaw County portion is in the 7th district. The rest is in the 15th. Randy Richardville is the incumbent who won in the tough 2006 year.

St Senate 17th GOP Dem 3rd Party



06 - Richardville/Schockman 52113 45445
     97,558 6668 53.42% 46.58% 6.83%
02 - Hammerstrom/LeMasters 44773 30262
     75,035 14511 59.67% 40.33% 19.34%

St Senate 8th -  Covers Allen Park, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Romulus, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte in Wayne County. This is one of the two main downriver districts. It is solidly democrat with only Allen Park occasionally competitive. Ray Basham is a termed out incumbent most famous for the big government smoking ban.

St Senate 8th GOP  Dem 3rd party




06 - Kalsic/Basham 21,727 58,501 2197      82,425 -36774 26.36% 70.97% -44.62%
02 - Montelauro/Basham 22,128 43,874 2312      68,314 -21746 32.39% 64.22% -31.83%


St Senate 7th - Covers Belleville, Brownstown Twp, Canton Twp, City of Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Twp, Huron Twp, City of Northville (Wayne County side), Northville Twp, City of Plymouth, Plymouth Twp, City of Rockwood, Sumpter Twp, City of Trenton, Van Buren Twp, and City of Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a swing district, if not slightly democrat leaning. Bruce Patterson had two tough wins and is termed out. Patterson won, by cutting into the normal GOP losses in the downriver portions of the district, while winning Canton, Plymouth Twp and Northville. This will be a major battle in 2010. It's been a battleground district for years, as was its similar district pre-redistricting represented by Lorne Bennett.


St Senate 7th GOP  Dem 3rd Party



06 - Patterson/Slavens 59,647 56,156
   115,803 3491 51.51% 48.49% 3.01%
02 - Patterson/Mans 52,435 40,675
     93,110 11760 56.32% 43.68% 12.63%

St Senate 5th - Dearborn Heights, Detroit, and Inkster - This is a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn Heights separates black majority Inkster and Detroit, so it's included. Detroit itself is the most democrat city over 100,000 people in the country. Tupac Hunter is the incumbent.

St Senate 5th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
06 - Malhalab/Hunter 8,164 56,252 1510      65,926 -48088 12.38% 85.33% -72.94%
02 - Patrick/Leland 10,334 49,780
     60,114 -39446 17.19% 82.81% -65.62%

St Senate 3rd - Covers Dearborn, Detroit, and River Rouge - This is also a minority majority district based in Detroit. Dearborn is about 1/3 of the district and is outvoted by Detroit. Irma Clark-Coleman is the incumbent and is termed out. .

St Senate 3rd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
06 - Sophiea/Clark-Coleman 12,353 58,063
     70,416 -45710 17.54% 82.46% -64.91%
02 - Hernandez/Clark 12,855 53,395 3      66,253 -40540 19.40% 80.59% -61.19%

St Rep 56th - Covers Ash Township, Berlin Township,  Exeter Township, Frenchtown Township, Ida Township, La Salle Township, London Township, City of Luna Pier, City of Monroe, Monroe Township, and Raisinville Township in Monroe County. This is a swing district with a slight democrat leaning, although Randy Richardville has won here on several occasions. Kate Ebli is the incumbent.

St Rep 56th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Dahm/Ebli 15,459 28,495 1224      45,178 -13036 34.22% 63.07% -28.85%
06 - Manor/Ebli 16,133 18,468
     34,601 -2335 46.63% 53.37% -6.75%
04 - Manor/Kerhl 20,671 21,554 1662      43,887 -883 47.10% 49.11% -2.01%
02 - Richardville/Sacks 17,357 9,004
     26,361 8353 65.84% 34.16% 31.69%

St Rep 55th - Covers Bedford Township, Dundee Township, Erie Township, City of Milan, Milan Township, City of Petersburg, Summerfield Township, and Whiteford Township in Monroe County, and City of Milan, Pittsfield Township, One precinct in Saline Township, and York Township in Washtenaw County. This is a swing district with the more Republican areas of Monroe County, and democrat Pittsfield Township in Washtenaw County. Pittsfield's leanings alone can flip this seat as it happened in 2004.
 
St Rep 55th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Moynihan/Angerer 17,054 33,236
     50,290 -16182 33.91% 66.09% -32.18%
06 - Milosch/Angerer 13,208 23,409
     36,617 -10201 36.07% 63.93% -27.86%
04 - Milosch/Angerer 23,980 24,299
     48,279 -319 49.67% 50.33% -0.66%
02 - Milosch/Hauser-Hurley 14,287 12,679
     26,966 1608 52.98% 47.02% 5.96%


St Rep 54th - Covers Augusta Township, Salem Township, Superior Township, the City of Ypsilanti, and Ypsilanti township in Washtenaw County. This is a solidly democrat district based in Ypsi.


St Rep 54th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Banks/Smith 12,283 33,509 1319      47,111 -21226 26.07% 71.13% -45.06%
06 - Banks/Smith 9,036 22,250 1402      32,688 -13214 27.64% 68.07% -40.42%
04 - Myers/Smith 12,698 28,568 860      42,126 -15870 30.14% 67.82% -37.67%
02 - Trent/Jamnick 8,112 17,888
     26,000 -9776 31.20% 68.80% -37.60%

St Rep 53rd - Covers most of Ann Arbor, part of Ann Arbor Township, and small parts of Pittsfield and  Scio Townships in Washtenaw County - This is one of the two most liberal districts in the state.

St Rep 53rd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Brewton/Warren 8,282 37,845 2200      48,327 -29563 17.14% 78.31% -61.17%
06 - Sheagren/Warren 5,898 26,985 847      33,730 -21087 17.49% 80.00% -62.52%
04 - Sheagren/Kolb 9,127 36,745
     45,872 -27618 19.90% 80.10% -60.21%
02 - Milroy/Kolb 6,279 22,254
     28,533 -15975 22.01% 77.99% -55.99%

St Rep 52nd - Covers Northeastern Ann Arbor, most of Ann Arbor Twp, Bridgwater Twp, City of Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lodi Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, City of Saline, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp. This was created as a swing district, but does have some democrat leanings, especially within the last 6 years. Gene DeRossett won the district in 2002 by winning big in the far western townships as a two term incumbent (of a less democrat district). Pam Byrnes won the 2004 open seat and has held it since. She's termed out. The open seat I'd say favors a democrat, but the Republicans have their best candidate running in Mark Ouimet, who as a county commissioner, somehow still wins in Scio Twp. This will be one to watch.

St Rep 52nd GOP Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Lielbriedis/Byrnes 19,180 35,957 1982      57,119 -16777 33.58% 62.95% -29.37%
06 - Brown/Byrnes 16,747 28,046
     44,793 -11299 37.39% 62.61% -25.22%
04 - Yekulis/Byrnes 24,669 29,740
     54,409 -5071 45.34% 54.66% -9.32%
02 - DeRossett/Byrnes 19,579 17,091
     36,670 2488 53.39% 46.61% 6.78%

State Rep 23rd - Covers Brownstown Township, Flat Rock, Gibralter, Grosse Ile Township, Huron Township, Rockwood, Sumpter Township, and Woodhaven in Wayne County. This is a slight democrat leaning district, but competitive some years. It was very close in 2002.

St Rep 23rd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - DeBlois/Kennedy 18,376 26,987
     45,363 -8611 40.51% 59.49% -18.98%
06 - Bostic/Law 12,677 21,636
     34,313 -8959 36.95% 63.05% -26.11%
04 - Vollenweider/Law 19,202 24,004 727      43,933 -4802 43.71% 54.64% -10.93%
02 - Jones/Law 13,171 13,430 552      27,153 -259 48.51% 49.46% -0.95%

State Rep 22nd - Covers Romulus and Taylor in Wayne County - Solidly democrat district covering the airport area. Heavily union and airport workers.

St Rep 22nd GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - McNeill/Geiss 6,780 25,676 3919      36,375 -18896 18.64% 70.59% -51.95%
06 - Armstrong/Hopgood 5,882 19,260 895      26,037 -13378 22.59% 73.97% -51.38%
04 - Kalsic/Hopgood 8,863 24,375 1807      35,045 -15512 25.29% 69.55% -44.26%
02 - Vaughan/Hopgood 5,696 14,042 657      20,395 -8346 27.93% 68.85% -40.92%

State Rep 16th - Covers part of Allen Park, part of Dearborn Heights, Garden City, and Inkster - Solidly democrat. All areas here lean democrat, with Inkster anchoring this seat.

St Rep 16th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Smith/Constan 9,133 28,195
     37,328 -19062 24.47% 75.53% -51.07%
06 - DeLozier/Constan 7,002 19,346
     26,348 -12344 26.58% 73.42% -46.85%
04 - Lauster/Plakas 9,259 25,756 1626      36,641 -16497 25.27% 70.29% -45.02%
02 - Homeier/Plakas 5,595 16,693 913      23,201 -11098 24.12% 71.95% -47.83%

State Rep 15th - Covers most of Dearborn - Strongly leans democrat, although Gary Woronchak won as a republican before switching parties. Dearborn long leaned Democrat being Dingell's home base since the 1960's. Bush won it in 2000, but Iraq shifted Dearborn about 10% more D at the top of the ticket.

St Rep 15th GOP  Dem 3rd Party Total Diff. GOP% Dem% Diff%
08 - Saionz/Polidori 8,292 28,606
     36,898 -20314 22.47% 77.53% -55.05%
06 - Ghasham/Polidori 6,755 21,391
     28,146 -14636 24.00% 76.00% -52.00%
04 - Thomas/Polidori 13,063 23,923
     36,986 -10860 35.32% 64.68% -29.36%
02 - Woronchak 19,227

     19,227 19227 100.00% 0.00% 100.00%

Overall, this is a seat that did its job in 2002. It combined the Lynn Rivers base in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti with Dingell's base in Southern Wayne County and Monroe County in an attempt to knock out Lynn Rivers or John Dingell. It did exactly that. It is a very difficult district for the GOP to win, although Engler carried it in 1998. Dingell's a hard worker, and usually doesn't take elections for granted. It depends on whether the bleeding can be stopped in the Ann Arbor area bringing it back at least to its 1990's era numbers (more the burbs), carrying Monroe big, and finally breaking through downriver with Inkster, Romulus, and a lot of the democrat base staying home. It's easy to say, and difficult to do, as this seat was gerrymandered to put two different democrat bases together, without giving Dingell's home to the Conyers district.

Update 5-18-2010 - I'm surprised there's a 5 way primary on the GOP side considering this district's history. Two of the candidates are in Ypsi, and three are in Wayne County. Maybe something is brewing here. At worst case scenario, maybe we can flip the Monroe districts and one of the downriver seats with some hard work.

2 comments:

dagnytaggert said...

Will he win again, or does cardiologist Rob Steele have a chance?

howardroark said...

The Dingell dynasty is older than the Kennedy dynasty... Steele will need to run a Scott Brown-like campaign to assist the 83-year-old into retirement.