Tuesday, August 31, 2010

If this is really the case, then we are looking at another 1994

I'm not sold yet on this being a 1994 type year, and I have an "I'll believe it when I see it" view on this poll, but I got this in an email.

If Election was held today:

John Dingell - 51%
Rob Steele - 42%

If those numbers are true, than this is a winnable district with the right turnout. I have heard of a lot of discontent though in this district, even in Ypsilanti of all places. Ypsi is the 2nd most democrat part of the district outside of Inkster. There was a five way primary for this seat. That alone tells me there is some discontent.

Again, I'll believe it with Dingell when I see it since this district is normally 62-38 at the top of the ticket. The only one to win it somewhat recently was Engler against Fieger. Is the anti-incumbency movement strong enough to beat the guy who always survives, and survived 1994 easily despite having a potentially competitive (in the right year) district in the 90's.

Rick Snyder may help in the Washtenaw County portion, although he could hurt the ticket downriver. Dr. Rob Steele is probably the best candidate Dingell's faced since 94.

Dingell's weakest numbers were in 94, 96, and 92. 59%, 62%, and 65%. The old district was strictly most of downriver and Monroe and going off memory, was I believe a 53% Gore district. The current district was 60% Gore.

It would take a Scott Brown type of effort to beat Dingell, a lot of hard work and a lot of help. I said that I'd believe Massachusetts would vote for a Republican Senator when I see it. I saw it.

Monroe County is winnable. Bush won it. Bush won Dearborn in 2000. I'll be shocked if Dingell loses there. That's his home. If Dr. Steele can do the impossible and cut his losses in Ypsi and Ann Arbor, while winning Monroe and Huron township and the Washtenaw townships big, and some of the more competitive areas downriver, it's possible. If, if, and if. If Scott Brown can somehow win Quincy...

In reality, this should be close, and polling now has it close for this district.

7 comments:

Communications guru said...

A few problems with that rosy scenario, it’s simply not true. A nine point lead from a crooked Republican polling form like Public Opinion Strategies means the lead is at least 18 points instead of nine. This is the same firm that did a push poll that Faux “news” used in 2007 to say 57 percent of Americans supported “finishing the job in Iraq.” Plus, when the non-teabagger voters learn what an arrogant liar Mr. Steele really is, Congressman Dingell will win with a big lead.

dagnytaggert said...

Wah, wah, wah, is Kevin Shopshire crying again? He got blocked from Steeles FB site for harrassing everyone, so congrats, now he's come to whine at your site. Dr. Steele is an amazing person, literally saving lives every day, making a huge sacrifice to represent us. The best part is Steele outpolls Dingell 46 to 41% when they learn he's a doctor, a businessman, actually from Michigan and has never run for office. Dingell's been in DC since age 7, not even born in MI, not even educated here...we need real representation.

Communications guru said...

I didn’t harass anyone, unless you count pointing out his lies and half truths as harassment. I find it funny that a teabgger who disrupts townhall meetings is accusing someone else of harassment. I noticed you can[t dispute what I wrote about the Republican polling and lobbying firm paid by Steele to do a push poll to give him the results he wants. Only an attack on me.

That speaks volumes.

liberalshateusa said...

Dingle has to go. He is a relic from a bygone era.
Don't underestimate how much the American voter is pissed off at the arrogance of the liberals in Congress.

The saying is for Congress
"If you are in You are Out"

Communications guru said...

Right, based on a poll from a crooked rightwing polling firm? Congressman Dingell will retire when he is ready to, not because of some rich, out of touch teabagger like Steele.

Ian said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ian said...

Rep. Dingell is worth somewhere between $1,303,084 and $3,900,000...just sayin'.