Friday, August 06, 2010

A look at the MI-02 primary (Huizenga v Riemersma)

I first wrote about the 2nd district back in January. Ottawa County is the base of the district, and in primaries, it's the base on steroids. It is about 40% of the district in the general election's population, but in the 2010 primary, it was almost 1/2 of the vote.

If things stand as they look, Bill Huizenga will be the next Congressman from the 2nd District. He won Ottawa County, and the district overall. Ottawa County was the difference. It knocked out Bill Cooper. It edged out Jay Riemersma, who finished a close third in Ottawa County. Cooper pushed hard in Muskegon County, his home, and won it by a gigantic margin. Muskegon is the 2nd biggest voting area in the district, but also has a lot of democrats. Only about 16,000 voted in the GOP primary in Muskegon County. They didn't turn out.


Here's the numbers.

  Bill  Bill  Wayne  Chris  Field  Jay  Ted  TOTAL 
COUNTY  Cooper  Huizenga  Kuipers  Larson  Reichardt  Riemersma  Schendel  BY 
CODE/NAME  REP  REP  REP  REP  REP  REP  REP  COUNTY 
03 ALLEGAN 658 2,767 2,260 129 300 2,618 104 8,836
10 BENZIE 573 460 162 143 140 578 413 2,469
41 KENT 380 829 1,302 149 68 1,001 101 3,830
43 LAKE 346 298 185 78 34 260 70 1,271
51 MANISTEE 716 816 243 161 189 776 269 3,170
53 MASON 849 1,276 466 205 162 1,193 184 4,335
61 MUSKEGON 8,211 2,054 1,788 306 474 2,885 206 15,924
62 NEWAYGO 1,528 1,610 1,305 198 175 2,224 164 7,204
64 OCEANA 840 988 641 119 110 912 70 3,680
70 OTTAWA 5,549 14,833 14,412 479 2,555 12,825 595 51,248
83 WEXFORD 936 1,116 463 363 318 1,117 230 4,543
  Bill  Bill  Wayne  Chris  Field  Jay  Ted  TOTAL 
COUNTY  Cooper  Huizenga  Kuipers  Larson  Reichardt  Riemersma  Schendel  BY 
CODE/NAME  REP  REP  REP  REP  REP  REP  REP  COUNTY 
===============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ============== 
Totals  20,586 27,047 23,227 2,330 4,525 26,389 2,406 106,510

And the Percentages.


% % % % % % %

Cooper Huizenga Kuipers Larson Field Riemersma Schendel








03 ALLEGAN 7.45% 31.32% 25.58% 1.46% 3.40% 29.63% 1.18%
10 BENZIE 23.21% 18.63% 6.56% 5.79% 5.67% 23.41% 16.73%
41 KENT 9.92% 21.64% 33.99% 3.89% 1.78% 26.14% 2.64%
43 LAKE 27.22% 23.45% 14.56% 6.14% 2.68% 20.46% 5.51%
51 MANISTEE 22.59% 25.74% 7.67% 5.08% 5.96% 24.48% 8.49%
53 MASON 19.58% 29.43% 10.75% 4.73% 3.74% 27.52% 4.24%
61 MUSKEGON 51.56% 12.90% 11.23% 1.92% 2.98% 18.12% 1.29%
62 NEWAYGO 21.21% 22.35% 18.11% 2.75% 2.43% 30.87% 2.28%
64 OCEANA 22.83% 26.85% 17.42% 3.23% 2.99% 24.78% 1.90%
70 OTTAWA 10.83% 28.94% 28.12% 0.93% 4.99% 25.03% 1.16%
83 WEXFORD 20.60% 24.57% 10.19% 7.99% 7.00% 24.59% 5.06%
































Total 19.33% 25.39% 21.81% 2.19% 4.25% 24.78% 2.26%











25.39% was your winner. Huizenga took Ottawa by slightly over 400 votes against Kuipers, who did not run well Up North. That took Kuipers out. He almost tripled Cooper in Ottawa, taking him out. Huizenga edged Riemersma in Ottawa by about 2000 votes. That offset the lead in a couple of Up North counties.

I don't know Huizenga, but I've heard good things about him from some people that do know him. The question is if he can pull the numbers Hoekstra had in Ottawa County and Allegan County to offset Muskegon County. If he can do that, we have nothing to worry about with this district.

Congratulations to Huizenga, and good luck to him this November.

2 comments:

Doug said...

The 2008 Republican Primary had 5095 votes in Muskegon County for Pete. I would hardly characterize a 3 fold increase from then as "not turning out".

Republican Michigander said...

I used general election number percentages on turnout estimates and assumed (we know how that works) that the numbers would be somewhat similar on percentage for primary voters. I didn't know Pete Hoekstra's primary was that amount in Muskegon in the past.

Ottawa County has a massive turnout.