Friday, November 05, 2010

A Closer Look at Northern Michigan's results

A closer look at Northern Michigan results

Until I get a close look at all of the municipalities themselves, I can’t get a real good read on most of the races. One of the exceptions is in Northern Michigan (called Up North locally) because of its rural character.

While the Republicans massacred the democrats this year throughout the country, no where was it more of a route than Up North. People who don’t know Michigan politics assume that because North Michigan is mostly rural, it is republican. No. It varies. The Lake Michigan coast in the Lower Peninsula are largely Gerry Ford types (With Traverse City itself leaning democrat, not as much as its reputation). The Northern Lower interior is very Conservative and mostly Republican north of Roscommon (Energy, middle class retirees) The Sunrise coast is a swing area (with Alpena leaning democrat) with its social conservative and labor influence. Roscommon Southeast to Northern Bay County is labor influenced (Corrections, retirees) and leans conservative democrat. The Western UP leans slightly democrat outside of Houghton area. The Eastern UP leans slightly Republican. The Marquette area is strongly democrat. The Menominee/Escanaba area swings with a slight democrat lean.

Not this time. Marquette, Alger, and Gogebic County (with Chippewa for McDowell only) are the only democrat counties this time in Northern Michigan. Why is this important statewide when the area has maybe 10% of the population? The reason is the number of normally competitive seats Up North. A plurality of our pickups were up North. Some of our best defenses were also up north. Ten seats there are realistically winnable by either party. That’s enough to flip control of either chambers in most years.

The UP results were most surprising to me. The yellow dogs are no more. They are either full ticketsplitters on the whole ticket or are now part of the Republican base. It is too early to consider them the base. It will take at least 8-10 years for that determination to happen. They gave the GOP a chance. Don’t blow it. What shocked me is that we took five UP based seats from the democrats. MI-01 wasn’t a surprise except for the margin. McDowell’s old seat was a matter of time, but largely due to Emmet County being a base county. Nerat’s seat was winnable. The old Lahti/Rich Brown was until recently what I call good enough to lose. It’s enough to suck you into thinking we’ll win, but was out of reach. Then there’s what is now Casperson’s win against the 2nd strongest democrat in the UP not named Stupak. That was a base seat for the democrats. The UP minus two Republican leaning counties.

The First District (MI-01) set the tale of the day. Dr. Dan Benishek beat McDowell by 10%. I thought this would be about 3%.


  Dan  Gary  Glenn  Other 3rd TOTAL 



COUNTY  Benishek  McDowell  Wilson 
BY  Benishek McDowell Wilson 3rd
  REP  DEM  NPA 
COUNTY 



ALCONA 2,603 1,433 177 291 4,504 57.79% 31.82% 3.93% 6.46%
ALGER 1,749 1,761 113 148 3,771 46.38% 46.70% 3.00% 3.92%
ALPENA 5,569 3,794 320 343 10,026 55.55% 37.84% 3.19% 3.42%
ANTRIM 5,589 3,491 378 376 9,834 56.83% 35.50% 3.84% 3.82%
ARENAC 2,621 2,079 308 325 5,333 49.15% 38.98% 5.78% 6.09%
BARAGA 1,382 1,124 65 82 2,653 52.09% 42.37% 2.45% 3.09%
BAY 5,700 4,780 335 555 11,370 50.13% 42.04% 2.95% 4.88%
CHARLEVOIX 5,752 3,767 299 374 10,192 56.44% 36.96% 2.93% 3.67%
CHEBOYGAN 5,502 3,905 254 351 10,012 54.95% 39.00% 2.54% 3.51%
CHIPPEWA 5,477 5,775 221 293 11,766 46.55% 49.08% 1.88% 2.49%
CRAWFORD 2,547 1,805 178 291 4,821 52.83% 37.44% 3.69% 6.04%
DELTA 6,779 5,730 255 365 13,129 51.63% 43.64% 1.94% 2.78%
DICKINSON 5,577 3,421 220 218 9,436 59.10% 36.25% 2.33% 2.31%
EMMET 7,397 5,040 328 374 13,139 56.30% 38.36% 2.50% 2.85%
GLADWIN 4,520 3,439 314 527 8,800 51.36% 39.08% 3.57% 5.99%
GOGEBIC 2,313 2,759 107 144 5,323 43.45% 51.83% 2.01% 2.71%
HOUGHTON 6,628 4,926 200 407 12,161 54.50% 40.51% 1.64% 3.35%
IOSCO 4,611 3,539 696 697 9,543 48.32% 37.08% 7.29% 7.30%
IRON 2,432 1,894 102 131 4,559 53.35% 41.54% 2.24% 2.87%
KEWEENAW 641 412 24 30 1,107 57.90% 37.22% 2.17% 2.71%
LUCE 1,017 808 63 61 1,949 52.18% 41.46% 3.23% 3.13%
MACKINAC 2,351 2,200 0 135 4,686 50.17% 46.95% 0.00% 2.88%
MARQUETTE 9,301 11,181 539 727 21,748 42.77% 51.41% 2.48% 3.34%
MENOMINEE 3,823 2,999 107 209 7,138 53.56% 42.01% 1.50% 2.93%
MONTMORENCY 2,103 1,314 213 199 3,829 54.92% 34.32% 5.56% 5.20%
OGEMAW 3,461 2,592 1,045 327 7,425 46.61% 34.91% 14.07% 4.40%
ONTONAGON 1,455 1,278 63 94 2,890 50.35% 44.22% 2.18% 3.25%
OSCODA 1,520 946 436 171 3,073 49.46% 30.78% 14.19% 5.56%
OTSEGO 5,133 2,995 224 288 8,640 59.41% 34.66% 2.59% 3.33%
PRESQUE ISLE 2,914 2,203 136 198 5,451 53.46% 40.41% 2.49% 3.63%
SCHOOLCRAFT 1,587 1,423 51 112 3,173 50.02% 44.85% 1.61% 3.53%
  Dan  Gary  Glenn 
TOTAL 



COUNTY  Benishek  McDowell  Wilson 
BY 



  REP  DEM  NPA 
COUNTY 



Totals  120,054 94,813 7,771 8843 231,481 51.86% 40.96% 3.36% 3.82%

One other lesson here is the futility of 3rd party candidates to be anything more than a protest vote. Glenn Wilson was supposed to be a very strong 3rd party candidate. He didn’t get a majority of the 3rd party vote (did get plurality). 3rd party votes were high, but totaled slightly over 7%. In order for 3rd party votes to be a threat, it must reach 30%. Wilson was held under 4% despite some democrats openly campaigning for him with conservatives. This race proves that like it or not, it’s a two party system with some protest votes. If you are looking to change things, the only to do it is through the two party system.

I said that Dr Dan had to do better than normal in his home area (Western UP), the old Stupak home base, and the Sunrise coast to win. That’s to offset McDowell’s district advantage in the district in the Eastern UP and Emmet County, which is a GOP base county he’s won in the past. McDowell won Marquette County, Alger County, and Gogebic County where just about any democrat can win. He won Chippewa County, but lost Mackinac County. He was also demolished on the sunrise coast. This was an easiser than expected win for Dr Dan.

The big surprise was the 38th District which is solidly democrat downticket……until now. Former State Rep Tom Casperson beat who I expected to be a very strong Western UP candidate in Mike Lahti for the ticket. It wasn’t close either. Casperson won everywhere except Marquette and Gogebic Counties. Even the western UP went for Casperson. Like Dr Dan’s race, it was a 10 point win.


  Tom  Michael  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Casperson  Lahti  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Casperson Lahti
02 ALGER 2,120 1,634 3,754 56.47% 43.53%
07 BARAGA 1,430 1,230 2,660 53.76% 46.24%
21 DELTA 8,300 4,868 13,168 63.03% 36.97%
22 DICKINSON 6,229 3,152 9,381 66.40% 33.60%
27 GOGEBIC 2,406 2,927 5,333 45.12% 54.88%
31 HOUGHTON 6,385 5,862 12,247 52.14% 47.86%
36 IRON 2,507 2,026 4,533 55.31% 44.69%
42 KEWEENAW 605 513 1,118 54.11% 45.89%
48 LUCE 1,178 741 1,919 61.39% 38.61%
52 MARQUETTE 10,580 11,099 21,679 48.80% 51.20%
55 MENOMINEE 4,669 2,607 7,276 64.17% 35.83%
66 ONTONAGON 1,552 1,382 2,934 52.90% 47.10%
77 SCHOOLCRAFT 1,907 1,280 3,187 59.84% 40.16%
  Tom  Michael  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Casperson  Lahti  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  49,868 39,321 89,189 55.91% 44.09%

  John  Andy  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Moolenaar  Neumann  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Moolenaar Neumann
01 ALCONA 2,767 1,744 4,511 61.34% 38.66%
04 ALPENA 5,259 4,750 10,009 52.54% 47.46%
20 CRAWFORD 2,824 1,843 4,667 60.51% 39.49%
26 GLADWIN 5,455 3,326 8,781 62.12% 37.88%
35 IOSCO 5,641 3,847 9,488 59.45% 40.55%
56 MIDLAND 20,245 8,301 28,546 70.92% 29.08%
60 MONTMORENCY 2,356 1,457 3,813 61.79% 38.21%
65 OGEMAW 4,434 2,892 7,326 60.52% 39.48%
68 OSCODA 1,894 1,140 3,034 62.43% 37.57%
69 OTSEGO 5,659 2,854 8,513 66.47% 33.53%
  John  Andy  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Moolenaar  Neumann  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  56,534 32,154 88,688 63.74% 36.26%

The 36th district is usually competitive when open, but not even close this year. Moolenaar won almost 2-1 and won every county, even Andy Neumann’s home county, Alpena.

The 110th was usually good enough to lose. Houghton tilts Republican sometimes, but Iron and Gogebic usually combine to offset any possible advantage. Not this time. 11pt victory. I’m not sure when the last time the GOP won the district. They came close in 2000.


  Matt  Scott  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Huuki  Dianda  BY 
 
CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Huuki Dianda
07 BARAGA 1,550 1,090 2,640 58.71% 41.29%
27 GOGEBIC 2,572 2,711 5,283 48.68% 51.32%
31 HOUGHTON 7,009 5,157 12,166 57.61% 42.39%
36 IRON 2,389 2,028 4,417 54.09% 45.91%
42 KEWEENAW 632 477 1,109 56.99% 43.01%
52 MARQUETTE 148 174 322 45.96% 54.04%
66 ONTONAGON 1,731 1,177 2,908 59.53% 40.47%
  Matt  Scott  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Huuki  Dianda  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  16,031 12,814 28,845 55.58% 44.42%

108th was starting to be a swing district, but the dems took it back recently when Casperson ran for Congress. Judy Nerat took the open seat. I thought this could be competitive, but I did not expect a 20 pt loss.

108th Ed  Judy  TOTAL 

COUNTY  McBroom  Nerat  BY  McBroom Nerat
CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

21 DELTA 7,431 5,571 13,002 57.15% 42.85%
22 DICKINSON 6,341 3,038 9,379 67.61% 32.39%
55 MENOMINEE 3,962 3,263 7,225 54.84% 45.16%
  Ed  Judy  TOTAL 

COUNTY  McBroom  Nerat  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  17,734 11,872 29,606 59.90% 40.10%

I expected the 107th to flip, but not a 2-1 margin.


107th Frank  Richard  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Foster  Timmer  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Foster Timmer
16 CHEBOYGAN 1,181 500 1,681 70.26% 29.74%
17 CHIPPEWA 6,397 5,079 11,476 55.74% 44.26%
24 EMMET 8,852 4,070 12,922 68.50% 31.50%
49 MACKINAC 2,907 1,701 4,608 63.09% 36.91%
  Frank  Richard  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Foster  Timmer  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  19,337 11,350 30,687 63.01% 36.99%

The 106th was a shock to me. It was another district which was “good enough to lose.” Alpena and Presque Isle counties are usually solidly democrat down ticket. Peter Pettalia won Alpena by 14pts which makes this a 20pt win. Andy Neumann and Matt Gillard had this district for years.


106th Peter  Casey  Nicholas  TOTAL 


COUNTY  Pettalia  Viegelahn  Hein  BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  NPA  COUNTY  Pettalia Casey Hein
01 ALCONA 2,866 1,438 178 4,482 63.94% 32.08% 3.97%
04 ALPENA 5,563 4,151 269 9,983 55.72% 41.58% 2.69%
20 CRAWFORD 2,923 1,528 255 4,706 62.11% 32.47% 5.42%
60 MONTMORENCY 2,359 1,227 195 3,781 62.39% 32.45% 5.16%
68 OSCODA 1,896 906 198 3,000 63.20% 30.20% 6.60%
71 PRESQUE ISLE 2,489 2,494 403 5,386 46.21% 46.31% 7.48%
  Peter  Casey  Nicholas  TOTAL 


COUNTY  Pettalia  Viegelahn  Hein  BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  NPA  COUNTY 


===============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ============== 


Totals  18,096 11,744 1,498 31,338 57.74% 37.48% 4.78%

The 103rd district tilts slightly republican at the top of the ticket, but they love the Sheltrowns, at least Dale and Joel. Van couldn’t win this seat however. I didn’t expect this to be a 25pt win, nor every county going republican here.


  Bruce  Van  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Rendon  Sheltrown  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Rendon Dem
35 IOSCO 5,516 3,986 9,502 58.05% 41.95%
57 MISSAUKEE 4,006 1,198 5,204 76.98% 23.02%
65 OGEMAW 4,348 3,112 7,460 58.28% 41.72%
72 ROSCOMMON 6,060 3,662 9,722 62.33% 37.67%
  Bruce  Van  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Rendon  Sheltrown  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  19,930 11,958 31,888 62.50% 37.50%

The 101st. District nearly flipped in 2006, and did flip in 2008. Both times, Dan Scripps was the democrat. He lost after one term in a 2008 rematch. This was close, but the top of the ticket likely carried Ray Franz past the finish line, just as Obama carried Scripps.


  Ray  Dan  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Franz  Scripps  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Franz Scripps
10 BENZIE 3,791 3,704 7,495 50.58% 49.42%
45 LEELANAU 5,881 5,433 11,314 51.98% 48.02%
51 MANISTEE 4,483 4,576 9,059 49.49% 50.51%
53 MASON 5,231 4,781 10,012 52.25% 47.75%
  Ray  Dan  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Franz  Scripps  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  19,386 18,494 37,880 51.18% 48.82%

The 97th was expected to be a tough defense. Jennifer Elkins won in 2002 for the dems. She lost to Tim Moore who won three terms and left it open. This wasn’t close. Every county is competitive here most years, not this one.


  Joel  Mark  Brandon  TOTAL 


COUNTY  Johnson  Lightfoot  Dickhausen  BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  LIB  COUNTY  Johnson Lightfoot Lib
06 ARENAC 2,877 1,899 550 5,326 54.02% 35.66% 10.33%
09 BAY 2,893 2,343 306 5,542 52.20% 42.28% 5.52%
18 CLARE 5,777 3,179 267 9,223 62.64% 34.47% 2.89%
26 GLADWIN 5,272 3,236 269 8,777 60.07% 36.87% 3.06%
  Joel  Mark  Brandon  TOTAL 


COUNTY  Johnson  Lightfoot  Dickhausen  BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  LIB  COUNTY 


===============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ============== 


Totals  16,819 10,657 1,392 28,868 58.26% 36.92% 4.82%

It was a massacre, and is a big reason why the house flipped and the senate stayed in GOP was because of the results up north.

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

Nice analysis.

It is also worth noting that the GOP did very well in the "Northland" (northern Wisconsin and Minnesota), picking up two house seats in Wisconsin and one in Minnesota. Some of the same national factors are likely relevant.