Tuesday, November 23, 2010

MI GOP Chair race - Bobby Schostak announces

Bobby Schostak is the current financial director for the Michigan GOP under Ron Weiser. He's now running for chair. He's been endorsed by Rick Snyder. That is interesting since I believe he supported Mike Cox (as I did) in the primary. He's also been endorsed by some good friends of mine who are solid conservatives.

I first want to mention that I have not made a decision yet in whom I am supporting. I have not endorsed Bobby Schostak, nor have I closed the door on him. There is some very good positives and very high negatives with him that need to be addressed, which will determine if I support him. Snyder's support makes no difference to me one way or the other.

As financial director, he was as good as it gets. If he was running for that again, I'd endorse him today. The amount in candidate assistance was at or near record amounts. I've heard some numbers which I won't repeat because it may be confidential information, but it is significant. This helped lead to a 20 seat gain and a takeover in the state house. We needed 13 to takeover. We have 7 seats to spare. Bobby Schostak deserves a lot of credit for that, along with Ron Weiser.

However, my concerns is with his donation history. Schostak is a builder with a large family business. Businesses are often bipartisan in their support. I understand that and that's how the game is often played. I don't like it, but I understand it. Most of the donations made were by all of the brothers and I've heard one of them is a democrat.

These are the candidates who Bobby Schostak donated to. These are under his own name, not his family members or their PAC. I listed both the R's and the D's.

STATE:
Candice Miller (for Sec of State)
Citizens for a Better Michigan (PAC)
John Walsh (R) - Livonia State Rep and good guy
Doug Ross (D) - Primary for governor 98.
McCotter – Several Donations - Then State Senate
Larry DeShazor (R) - State Rep/Senate candidate
Copper Rizzo (R) - State Senate Candidate, worked for Mike Bishop
Gail Haines (R) - State Rep
Jase Bolger (R) - State Rep, new Speaker
Peter Petallia (R) - New State Rep
Common Sense Leadership Fund PAC
Craig DeRoche (R) - Former Speaker
Kim Meltzer (R) - State Rep, State Senate Candidate
Justice Cliff Taylor
Dick DeVos (R) - Gubernatorial Candidate
Dick Posthumus (R) - Lt Governor, Gubernatorial Candidate
Laura Toy (R) - State Rep, State Senate candidate
John Engler (R)
Andy Meisner (D) - Safe Democrat district, State Rep
Burton Leland (D) - Safe Democrat District
Dan Tietma (R) - State Rep Candidate
Paul DeWeese (Was R, now D) - State Rep, State Senate/Congressional candidate
Gabe Leland (D) - Safe Democrat district, Primary
Hugh Crawford (R) - State Rep
Ken Horn (R) - State Rep
Roger Kahn (R) - State Rep/Senate
Steve Tobocman (D) - State Rep, safe democrat district
Wayne Schmidt (R) - State Rep
HRCC - House GOP Committee
Gilda Jacobs PAC (D) - Leadership fund for democrat
JAPAC (Jewish PAC)
Jennifer Granholm (D) (Maxed, 2004) - Pay to play?
Lawrence Deitch (D) for UM – UM Trustee.
Michigan Republican Party – Over $63,000
Mike Cox (R) - AG and Gubernatorial Candidate
New Century Fund - PAC
Number 6 Leadership Fund - PAC
Paul Scott (R) - State Rep, Convention candidate for Secretary of State
John Pastor (R) - State Rep
Realtors PAC
Schostak Family PAC
Senate Republican Caucus
Civic Fund PAC
Team 2006 PAC
Todd LaJoy (R) - State Rep Candidate
11th District GOP Committee -
Wayne Kuipers (R) - State Rep/Senate, Congressional Candidate

If that was it, I could live with that, although the Granholm one bothers me a lot. Most of the democrats are in safe districts. There may be personal ties. I don't know. I'm not going to get bent out of shape over his support of the Lelands or Tobocman in Detroit or Jacobs in Huntington Woods. Someone with bad politics is going to win there regardless. That's how it is.

Federally, I have a big problem with some of his donations.

Mike Bouchard - Candidate against Stabenow
MRP - $10000+
Carl Levin (D) - Why Levin?
Charlie Crist (Then R, now who knows what)(2009, preparty switch)
Joe Lieberman (D) for President - 2004, also gave to his Senate campaign
Debbie Stabenow (D) - Stabenow is up in 2012. Next election. Our state party chair candidate donated to Stabenow.
Tim Walberg (R) - This one is a big positive to me.
Mike Rogers (R) - This was after he was first elected
Susan Collins (R) - Liberal Republican, but it is Maine
Joe Knollenberg (R) - He gave a lot of support to Knollenberg.
Dianne Byrum (D) - This was her race against Mike Rogers in 2000 which was a big fight over who kept the majority. 88 vote difference.
Rocky Raczkowski (R) - Good fight.
Spence Abraham (R) - Then incumbent. Lost to Stabenow.
Jack Reed (D) - Why Jack Reed? Rhode Island far left Senator.
Joe Schwarz (2004) - Then Republican.
John Kerry (D) – 2007 - Why give to this scumbag traitor? John Kerry?
Frank Lautenberg (D) – 2008 - Far left gun grabber.
Mark Udall (D) – 2007 - This one may be the worst from a pragmatic standpoint. There was a battle over the senate in 2008. Mark Udall is a Boulder (Ann Abror of Colorado) liberal. Non incumbent open senate seat in Colorado.
John Conyers (D) – 1999
Ben Cardin (D) – 2005 - Another Open Seat to replace Paul Sarbanes. Michael Steele or Ben Cardin.
Jean Carnahan (D) – 2002 - Appointed incumbent key for the majority. She lost.
Peter Monroe (R) – 2006 - Ran against Bill Nelson
Mitt Romney - 2007
David Fink (D) – 2002 - Ran against Knollenberg
Nancy Pelosi (D) – 2007 - Yes, that Pelosi
Gene DeRossett (R) – 2004 - Ran for open seat primary later won by Joe Schwarz and Tim Walberg (R)
Carolyn Kilpatrick (D) 2001
Al Gore 2000 - Gore for President?
McCain 2008 – 2007
Jeff Sessions (R) – 2007
Bill Bradley 2000 (D) - Ran against Gore
Thad McCotter (R) - Congressman
Candace Miller (R)

For the sake of argument, I'll give the benefit of the doubt on in-state dems outside of Stabenow (who is up in 2012) and chalk it up to builders politics. But Gore? Lieberman in 04? Bill Bradley? Mark Udall and Ben Cardin for key open seats in 06 and 08? Byrum over Rogers? Carnahan in a key swing state. This isn't one, two, or three democrats, but several, and some key ones including presidential campaigns.

Maybe Schostak is party switcher. I hope that is the case and if so, would explain some of the donations.

But I have a major concern. There's some schisms and rifts within the party. They will come out in the 2012 elections. I see some "third way" (Clintonian/DLC) tendencies in the donation history. Leland, Jacobs, Stabenow, Lieberman, Gore, Kerry, Byrum, Udall, Cardin, Crist, and Reed. I see that as well in the Romney support for 2008, and later McCain. I don't think Schostak ever cared much for the Daily Kos or Kucinich wing of the dems.

There's also a schism especially between the Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin wings going back to the end of the 2008 race. For the record, I support neither as my first choice in 2012. There are several candidates I would support before either of them.

However, it's the MIGOP's job to support who the nominee is. Can I count on Schostak to support whoever the nominee is and do the necessary work to give the candidate a solid chance to win Michigan? That includes if it is someone I suspect he would not care for - Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee. Would he support them wholeheartedly against Obama? Would he endorse Obama? Would he stay out? I have no doubt he'd support a Romney or probably a Pawlenty, Daniels, Giuliani, or Barbour. Palin though? Would we see another case of Wayne Gilchrist, Colin Powell, Kathleen Parker, Doug Kmiec, Peggy Noonan, Chuck Hagel, Scott McClellan, Charles Fried, Ken Adelman, Paul O'Neill, and the like. I don't know. I really do not know. In Schostak's defense, he has never given any indication of supporting Obama, either as a senate candidate or in 2008. However, he has donated to Gore, Bradley, and Lieberman in their presidential runs.

I have not made my decision of support in this race. Bobby Schostak has done a great job as finance chair for MIGOP. I do not want that to be lost on the readers. That was a big reason why we picked up 20 seats in the state house and increased our majority in the state senate. Give him credit for that. He earned it. Some of those donations have to be addressed however. It's not a "non-issue."

We all need to evaluate the entire picture and see who runs, what their positives and negatives are, and make sure we do our due diligence in our decision making.

Friday, November 19, 2010

LCGOP picks executive committee

Last night, the precinct delegates picked our county party's executive committee. It was as fair of a process as there can be. Straight up ballots, and vote for 18 people.

It was a good committee that was chosen. Fortunately 18 good people ran and were chosen. Unfortunately there were more than 18 good people running for 18 spots. I had a much tougher decision that I thought I would have and a lot of good people did not get on the committee. My advice to them is to stay active and wait for some not to show up to meetings and get appointed. I first got on the committee through an appointment to a vacancy. I can't complain because those who got on deserved it through their hard work. It was a merit system. Not everyone who deserved a spot got, but those who got on deserved a spot. There was a lot of new blood, but I hope the new blood doesn't try and reinvent what was done the last three years. Take the positive from it and built on it.

The few people I was against lost and I believe had a handful of votes at best. These individuals were previously disruptive at previous events and at the same time have not been active in county party at the same time they were disruptive.

Good luck to the committee. 2012 preparation starts already. Besides the presidency, we have a Stabenow finally up again, Congress, state house, county commission, Sheriff, Prosecutor, Clerk, Treasurer, Register of Deeds, and all of the township offices. Redistricting also impacts all of the district level seats. State Senator, State Representative, and County Commissioners.

At the convention, current 8th District chair Allan Filip announced he's running again. He has my support, as do most of the incumbents if they run again (I'm also running). The 8th District Committee started basically from almost scratch outside of the titles. Before the current term, we were mostly a procedures committee for conventional purposes (at least since Mike Rogers first took office). Under the current committee leadership, the 8th district Committee:

1. Now has regular meetings instead of once every year or two years.
2. Enacted bylaws. The old committee either didn't have them.
3. Created the infrastructure to raise money legally for all levels of government under the campaign finance rules. Previously, it was only federal.
4. Raised some money. We still have a lot of work to do there, but it's an improvement.
5. Assisted the local parties within the district in targeted areas. While some of those pickups would have happened without our help, we didn't hurt the effort.
6. Networked strategies for the county parties to find out what we're doing and what we can improve.

This was all in basically 18 months. The foundation is being built and it's now time for our committee to take the next step, and I think keeping our current committee is the best way for that to happen.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Reason Number #1000001 not to donate to the NRSC

Oftentimes people rip the "establishment" or "leadership" and I sometimes am one of the ones that do so. In reality there are multiple establishments, not all of them alike. The "establishment" isn't always bad, but sometimes it is and then some. Even not all "Washington" establishment is alike.

Just as there are thousands of tea parties which are independent of one another, there are thousands of Republican Parties. In Michigan alone, you have at least 101 republican parties (State, County, District, Caucus) along with several dozens of Republican clubs (North Oakland, Greater Oakland are two prominent ones nearby) that are technically PACs but function as more of a political party than some official parties. Those clubs are often in large counties on a micro level.

From a strategy elections standpoint, some of the biggest ones are caucus. We unfortunately have no say on caucus, unlike County, State (and I'm undecided on state leadership), District, and even RNC indirectly. In Michigan, there's a house and state senate caucus, and nationally, we have the NRCC and NRSC. Democrats have their own equivalent.

The NRSC screwed things up bad...again. They reappointed Texas Senator John Cornyn, unanimously. I hope Cornyn learned some lessons from 2008 and changes up their executive directors a bit. Yes, there were some gains, but that was despite the NRSC. Let's look at the history of the NRSC under Cornyn's tenure.

1. NRSC endorses Arlen Specter in primary. Specter defected to the democrats despite all of the establishment support. Specter was unacceptable in both parties to Pennsylvania voters. They then were monkeying around in the primary some more because Pat Toomey could not win. Oh wait. Toomey won. If they understood history, Toomey won three times in a Gore/Kerry seat. He represented Leigh Valley area. That's Bethlehem and Allentown. Heavily union, steel areas Northeast of Philly. That's not exactly Lancaster or York (Which are about as Republican as Livingston County in Michigan). Toomey won there in his senate race, and even picked up Bucks County in Suburban Philly, along with all the Suburban Pittsburgh area. The NRSC wasted money and time supporting Specter and needed to stay out.

2. NRSC endorsed Charlie Crist. This one is worse. Crist wasn't even an incumbent. He defected as well after Florida primary voters would not accept him for his economic leftism, and got his ass kicked in the general, unable to break 30%. Crist won four counties, none over 50%. Meek won one. Rubio "couldn't win" either. Oh wait, he did. Rubio won all but five counties, and came within one percent of winning Palm Beach County of all places. He won the "lower Alabama" area as well as majority minority and democrat leaning Miami-Dade county. He even won Alachua County, Gainesville....the Ann Arbor of Florida. The NRSC wasted early money and needed to stay out.

3. They got involved in the Lisa Murkowski/Joe Miller primary. Looks like Murkowski won the general and got her revenge, but who knows what she's going to do now. The primary NRSC ads damaged Miller in the general.

4. Dumbass comments. Christine O'Donnell was a bad candidate who won the primary. I knew that, but the NRSC didn't have to announce they were backing out. They needed to shut the hell up and not say anything. That allowed the democrats to take their money out and spend it elsewhere, like Colorado.

If you go back further pre-Cornyn, the NRSC also got involved in Lincoln Chafee's primary against a moderate. Chafee won the primary, and lost the general. Chafee also later endorsed Obama. The NRSC ran negative ads against the other republican.

I didn't even get to the "unofficial support" these clowns did.

These primary fights not only pick favorites and breed resentment, but they also take resources away from the general election. It's the NRSC's job to support the republican nominee, not get involved in primaries. That money supporting Crist and Specter could have gone elsewhere. That support could have gone to Colorado, Washington, and West Virginia instead, where we had three close losses with winnable candidates. The money blown in California could have gone there too.

Leadership like that shouldn't get rewarded.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Feds need to get the hell out of traffic rules

This is the number one problem with Washington. Big government is once against trying to regulate every aspect of our lives. RINO Ray LaHood, Transportation Secretary and Obama lackey from Illinois (where else), is at it again.

Between this and the new TSA crap (Full body scanners and groping....but no profiling of course...got to be politically correct), I'm about ready to violate Godwin's law. I hate Illinois Nazis.

From the Daily Caller

Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said using a cell phone while driving is so dangerous that devices may soon be installed in cars to forcibly stop drivers — and potentially anyone else in the vehicle — from using them.

“There’s a lot of technology out there now that can disable phones and we’re looking at that,” said LaHood on MSNBC. LaHood said the cellphone scramblers were one way, and also stressed the importance of “personal responsibility.”

The hosts of Morning Joe pushed the secretary about the possibility of requiring scrambling technology installed in vehicles.

“I think it will be done,” said LaHood. “I think the technology
is there and I think you’re going to see the technology become adaptable in automobiles to disable these cell phones. We need to do a lot more if were going to save lives.”

Grab the pitchforks. Who the Hell's business is this of the FEDERAL government in DC? It's not. If local municipalities or states want to push this crap, that's one thing, but it's none of the fed's business. Period.

We also have laws against careless driving, reckless driving, crossing yellow lines, speeding, tailgating, and just about anything else you can think of. We don't need yet another law, especially one from the Feds. I've never gotten into an accident on my cell when I drive, mostly on rural roads. If LaHood over in Illinois or DC has a problem with that, he can go screw himself.

I've had more than enough of this crap from all branches of government, but especially the feds.

The price of freedom is eternal vigilance

I got an alarming excerpt from MIRS sent to my email today. While the GOP will have control in the next session, it doesn't mean we are safe from tax increases and anti-freedom measures. We need to still be vigilant.

Richardville-Whitmer On Same Page
The two new incoming Senate leaders are on the same page when it comes to considering a possible revenue increase next year to eradicate a $1.6 billion budget deficit.

"I don't think anything is off the table completely," incoming Senate Majority Leader Randy RICHARDVILLE (R-Monroe) told MIRS.

"Everything has got to be on the table," echoed incoming-Minority Leader Gretchen WHITMER (D-East Lansing).

Richardville made it clear that he is not endorsing the need for new revenue and he warned his caucus is "not going to lead" with the recommendation. Having said that, he talked candidly about the possibility.

Asked if he might have to look at "some new revenue piece" he said, "I think that's fair. Yeah. We have to look at everything."


For her part, Whitmer predicted the Republican Gov.-Elect Rick SNYDER could not get the votes to pass an all-cuts budget. Instead, he would solve the budget with a "mixture" cuts, reforms, and revenue, she said.

Whitmer is suggesting closing tax loopholes, which could raise millions of dollars. That dovetails into remarks made last week by House Fiscal Agency Mitch Bean, who suggested the option, too (See "Bean: Look At Tax Expenditures," 11/9/10).

Richardville said there is a way to reduce the deficit without new revenue by looking at "what government is supposed to be."

The new GOP leader has immediately established himself as not following in the footsteps of the current Majority Leader Mike BISHOP (R-Rochester), who was loathed to even use the words "revenue increase: during his tenure. Richardville began his first day on the job doing just that.

Whitmer is elated saying, "Randy will be more open" than Bishop and she said she looked forward to working with him.

Everything is on the table? No, it shouldn't be. Government needs to live within its means. If you want to see the GOP to lose Michigan statewide for most of the next 18 years, raise taxes and/or give us status quo government. We can not have democrat-lite budgets.

What we as citizens can do to make sure this doesn't happen is to keep the pressure on from go and stay involved. Richardville needs to know we are watching. Bolger in the house needs to know we are watching. Rick Snyder needs to know we are watching. So do all of our reps. Those that raise taxes need to be recalled or primaried out.

If tax increases are on the table, so are primary challenges and recalls. My tolerance for tax increases and Joe Schwarz and Bill Milliken style of Republicans are nill. They destroy the state as well as the party.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Party Leadership Races

This week we (precinct delegates) will be selecting the next executive committee for our county party. The executive committee will be picking the officers. I'm not running for county party because of time constraints. I have too many irons in the fire right now and basically can only be a vote and title right now for county. Someone else can do a better job, and I don't need an important sounding title.

There won't be a slate. The process is 18 votes for the at large positions. It will be a straight up ballot vote selecting the paid party members. That's it. Some people I'll actively support. Some I'll actively oppose. Some I'll stay neutral. I'll post more on that this week. Lana Theis, Brighton Township Treasurer, is running for county chair. Mike Murphy is stepping down as chair by his own choice. Lana has my support.

Some time after that, there will be another convention to select delegates to state convention. This is for the state and district committee leadership. For the 8th District (of which I am a committee member), I support our incumbents if they run again. I don't usually make blanket endorsements, but we're a good team. It's a good committee going in the right direction after starting from scratch. It has been dormant for years outside of its role as a convention. Now it's an actual political party. The big race at the next state convention however is state chair, and there's an interesting tidbit from Saul Anuzis.

Snyder To Weigh In On MRP Chair Race

MIRS reports: “For those of you who felt the incoming governor would sit on the sidelines and watch the Michigan Republican Party (MRP) select a new chairperson, think again.

There are strong indications that Gov.-elect Rick SNYDER will voice his “personal choice” to replace outgoing Chair Ron WEISER and it may come sooner than later…

…Snyder wants someone to be a “partner” in his legislative efforts and his personal review of all of the candidates is now underway and “he will make his personal preference known.”

Multiple sources have laid out the field of candidates to include Secretary of State Terri Lynn LAND, MRP Finance Chair Robert “Bobby” SCHOSTAK and MRP Coalitions Vice Chair ScottGREENLEE ”

I think this is a good idea. He is our Governor, our leader and will set to tone and direction our state will take over the next 8 years. He needs to have a team around him he can count on and work with.

I’m looking forward to hearing from him.

I'm also looking forward to hearing from him, but I'm not going to vote necessarily for - or against - his pick. Who Snyder picks has no bearing on who I support. I know the tradition is for the governor to pick his guy. That goes back to the Engler years and he for the most part controlled the party. If Snyder's pick is best, I will support that pick. If someone else is better, that's who I'll support. I'm nobody's yesman.

This will be a good first test for Snyder. He'll need to pick someone electable by the state delegates selected by the county conventions. I'm still learning more about the candidates before I make my choice. I hope Snyder does due diligence and picks the right person for the job.

Speaking of Saul, he's running for RNC Chair and has my endorsement for what that's worth (I can't vote for RNC chair, only committeeman). I think he'll do well if he has good fundraisers (right now there isn't at RNC) and strategists (not as bad as Steele's rep and not nearly as bad as NRSC, but could be better) working for him. Saul's an ace at communications, and that's an area lacking right now from party. He does well on TV and knows how to use the internet. Saul earned my respect by circling the wagons on the Granholm tax increases. We didn't have the votes, but he prevents a worse cave than their was by the GOP. Saul's not afraid to hold someone's feet to the fire and took a lot of heat from the insiders for doing so. Good luck to Saul in his race.

Deficit Reduction Commission is bullshit as I expected

I called this one. Federal and State government created Commissions to look at issues are jokes. They have been in the past, are presently, and will be in the future. They are a joke because they appoint retired politicians and bureaucrats to the commission to give recommendations on issues they don't know anything about or don't have the right perspective to give a correct statement. Politicians appoint commissions because they don't do anything while making it look like they are doing something. The old saying is this. If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit. Commissions are bullshit. What baffles me is how Washington thinks that a commission is needed to balance the budget. It's been sort of done. Newt Gingrich's congress did it.

Here's how to balance the budget. It's a brilliant plan. It's the best one there is, thanks to my genius intelligence. Do not let expenditures exceed revenues. There. That's it. It doesn't take 27 years like the commission suggests either.

It's not hard. Government needs to live within its means. Don't raise taxes. Don't overspend. We can start with eliminating federal programs and organizations that aren't needed, like the BATFE or the Department of Education. Education is a state issue and local, not federal. No Child Left Behind didn't work.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Redistricting

I'll be honest and say that the current redistricting system isn't good for the state. I've said that when it looked like the dems had control, and I'll still stand by that today.  It works well in the GOP's favor this time, but the 1970's, 1980's, and 1990's maps were not favorable for us. I do get a chuckle out of the complaints about the 2000's map for the dems because I did not think it was tough enough from a partisan standpoint, but that's my view.

One often proposed alternative is the so called "nonpartisan" commissioner system. I think that's worse. I can vote out a state rep. Commissions are usually made up of political hacks and has-beens who will likely protect their buddy. I do like a computer system based on geography that limits municipal breaks. I'm not for "nonpartisan" redistricting. I do support "nonbiased" redistricting based on geography. Trying to create 15 50/50 districts is impossible without creating strange maps. What there needs to be are maps with minimal municipal breaks. Our congressmen, state senators, state reps, and county commissioners should be from our communities. The democrats didn't like Oakland County being carved up into four different districts. I don't want to see the democrats split Livingston County three ways. Municipal breaks favor Republicans in some areas (Kent County, Livingston County) and democrats in others (Wayne County, probably Oakland County).

The system is what it is, however. 

There's pretty good software out there on redistricting. It's called "Dave's Redistricting App." It used estimated 2008 population for Michigan and while it's inexact with the every person requirement, it's fairly close. We're likely going to lose a seat, and unlikely will lose 2 seats when the census results are in.

Here's my preliminary "Screw the democrats" map without running the numbers. It's intended to be a 10-4 map.I'm trying to get the map screen captured, but am unable to do so. If I can get that set up, I'll post it.

District 1 - All UP, Emmet, Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Montmorency, Otsego, Antrim, Charlevoix, Antrim, Kalkaska, Crawford, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Wexford, and Manistee Counties. Part of Oscoda County. I wanted to protect Benishek here. I gave him less of the sunrise side, in case Sheltrown wants to make a run. I also wanted to make sure the dems have to navigate two bases to win. The UP is less apt to support a Dan Scripps type out of Leelanau/Benzie, while Leelanau is less apt to support the next Joe Mack. Grand Traverse and Wexford Counties are two base counties that can offset Manistee and Benzie Counties. No Bay County helps immensely.

District 2 - Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana, Mason, Lake, Osceola, Mecosta, Isabella, Newaygo, Part of Clare and Part of Montcalm Counties - I decided to make this less Republican by removing the Allegan County portion, but still solid. Huizenga will win Ottawa big everytime and should offset Muskegon County. Newaygo County should offset Isabella County.

District 3 - Kent, Ionia, and part of Montcalm County. - Little change.

District 4 - I'm least confident about this and am counting on Dave Camp's incumbency. I gave Camp back Clinton and the rest of Shiawassee County, as well as gave him Eaton County.

District 5 - This is where I disregarded all county breaks and made a "Mel Watt" district. I gave Dale Kildee a snake type district from Bay City, through Saginaw, a small part of Tuscola County as a connector (so Camp had Frankenmuth), through most of Northern  Genessee County, with another connecter down to Pontiac and Auburn Hills, and connected once more to get West Bloomfield.

District 6 - Fred Upton's district was made a little more Republican by adding Northern Allegan County and Springfield and part of one township (Bedford?) in Calhoun County.

District 7 - Walberg still isn't safe, but loses trades Eaton County and most of his Washtenaw County for Monroe County and Grosse Ile in Wayne County.

District 8 - Mike Rogers loses Clinton and Shiawassee and gets Southern Genesee (Fenton, Grand Blanc, Argentine), most of Washtenaw County outside of Ann Arbor Metro (no Scio, Pittsfield, Ann Arbor, Superior, Ypsi), and gets Western Oakland instead of Northern Oakland. It's similar to the 2000 map (except more Oakland) with two major exceptions. No Scio/Pittsfield Townships. No Flint Township or Swartz Creek.

District 9 - Open. Most of Tuscola, All of Lapeer, Eastern Oakland, Western Macomb County. Most of Troy, all Rochester, Oakland Twp, Northeast Corner of Oakland (Addison?), Warren, Sterling Heights, Utica, Part of Macomb Twp, Romeo, Shelby Twp. I haven't run all the numbers here, but this should be competitive and winnable for the GOP. I think it would go GOP outside of wave elections. 

District 10 - Candice Miller should be able to take this. Harper Woods, Grosse Pointes, Eastpointe, St Clair Shores, Fraser, Clinton Twp, Mt Clemens, Harrison Twp, part of Macomb Twp, Lennox, Chesterfield, most of North Macomb, St Clair County, Sanilac County, Huron County.

District 11 - Open Dem - Ann Arbor Metro (Ann Arbor City/Twp, Ypsi City/Twp, Superior, Scio twps), Belleville, Van Buren, Sumpter, Huron Twp, Downriver (Outside Grosse Ile, connector to Monroe, Ecorse, River Rouge), Romulus, Wayne, part of Westland.

District 12 - McCotter should be a little safer losing Redford, Belleville, and most of Westland. Has Livonia, Canton, Northville, Novi, Farmingtons, Southfield Twp (not city), Birmingham, Bloomfield (not West), part of Troy, Clawson, part of White Lake, Waterford, and Independence Twp. I need to run the numbers here. Not safe, but better than before, although I think Peters is incumbent here. I think Peters lost all of the areas here from his district outside of Farmington Hills. All his base areas are elsewhere. West Bloomfield and Pontiac to Kildee. Royal Oak to Conyers. 

District 13. Conyers and Levin (depending on him claiming Royal Oak or Roseville). Advantage Conyers. 57%black district. Southfield, Lathrup, Royal Oak, Oak Park, Madison Heights, Ferndale, that whole area. Redford. Part of Dearborn Heights. Inkster. Northwest Detroit. Highland Park. 

District 14. Hansen Clarke and John Dingell. Most of Detroit. Dearborn. Highland Park. Ecorse. River Rouge.

I doubt a map similar to this will be tried based on laws regarding county and municipal breaks.All of it will depend on actual 2010 census as well and not 2008 estimates like the program. I'll probably work on a more in depth redistrict proposal once the census numbers are out. I am confident on a 10-4 map. Maybe a gamble map of 9-3-2 with nine lean GOPs and two winnable. I can do that, but I'd rather not since Mike Rogers would be risking it big against a Kildee or Ann Arbor type.

It's going to be interesting to watch.

Closer look at 7th district results

Up North is a good barometer for the state as a whole in its leanings. Another one is the 7th District.

Tim Walberg won his rematch against Mark Schauer. Schauer couldn't hide himself from his record and lost by 11,000 votes. I said this about the 7th back in January.

I am more familiar with this district than any other outside of the 8th, where I live. I commuted through it every day in law school. I live about a mile from the district (no jokes about seeing the district). I have family in the district (and my family originally settled in Marshall when they moved to Michigan). One of the PAC's I'm involved with is based in Hillsdale and Jackson Counties. I also am very familiar with the Lansing area, as well as Eaton County. Branch County is the only area I'm not very familiar with. Overall if I have to describe its leanings, I'd say conservative, populist, and independent. It's not one that can be taken for granted.

This district is a competitive populist leaning district in South Central Michigan. It usually leans Republican, but voted for Clinton, Bush twice, Granholm once, and Obama. McCain left the state in 09, and the NRCC reportedly packed up shop and conceded the congressional race. Mark Schauer, endorsed by RINO (and I have rarely use that term for the last 4 years) Joe Schwarz, won 49-46.

The Republican district base here is Hillsdale (which usually battles Livingston, Saniliac and Allegan for 3rd place in percentages) and Branch Counties, along with Summit Twp (usually), Sandstone Twp and Spring Arbor in Jackson County, and Lodi and Salem Twps in Washtenaw County. The Democrat base is the city of Jackson, Albion, Battle Creek, Springfield, Benton Twp, Adrian, Scio Township in Washtenaw County, Chelsea, and Eaton County's portion of Lansing. The rest can be competitive and usually leans slightly Republican, but not overwhelming so. Eaton County and Washtenaw County have really tilted blue heavily in 2006 and 2008, and the rest did not move as democrat. Calhoun County is slightly democrat, but winnable for Republicans. Eaton County swings and has been treading Democrat with its Lansing area influence. Western Washtenaw Swings. Jackson County swings, although won more by Republicans than Democrats at the top of the ticket. Lenawee County is a swing county, although with a bit of a social conservative streak. Both Jackson County and Lenawee County voted for Bush twice and Obama. Lenawee voted for Clinton. Jackson did not.

Mark Schauer is good at making his leftist self looking moderate. He's the type of guy who as a state rep supported all bad amendments to the CCW bill, including making cars a criminal empowerment zone. He then voted for the final bill to say that he did. He is also strongly pro-abortion, supporting of cap and trade, and voted for the government takeover. If his chameleon style gets caught for good, he should be beaten in this district. He is a very good campaigner however, and can not be taken lightly.

This was a close race in both 2008 and 2010. Schauer won with 48.79% in 2008. Walberg won with 50.01% of the vote in 2010.

Here's the difference.


Tim  Mark  All TOTAL 

COUNTY  Walberg  Schauer  3rd BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  Party COUNTY  Walberg Schauer 3rd
12 BRANCH 7,243 4,738 714 12,695 57.05% 37.32% 5.62%
13 CALHOUN 17,980 19,630 1635 39,245 45.81% 50.02% 4.17%
23 EATON 21,133 22,091 2599 45,823 46.12% 48.21% 5.67%
30 HILLSDALE 8,682 4,594 811 14,087 61.63% 32.61% 5.76%
38 JACKSON 25,054 21,432 2207 48,693 51.45% 44.01% 4.53%
46 LENAWEE 16,332 13,935 1177 31,444 51.94% 44.32% 3.74%
81 WASHTENAW 17,960 17,230 1186 36,376 49.37% 47.37% 3.26%
Tim  Mark  all TOTAL 


COUNTY  Walberg  Schauer  3rd BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  Party COUNTY 


===============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ============== 


Totals  114,384 103,650 10,329 228,363 50.09% 45.39% 4.52%

And 2008.

Branch County
Walberg - 55.58%, Schauer 38.74% - 17,752 votes, 2988 vote spread

Calhoun County (Schauer's home)
Schauer - 56.00%, Walberg 39.81% - 60113 votes, -9735 spread

Eaton County
Schauer - 49.60%, Walberg - 44.62% - 55751 votes, -2777 spread

Hillsdale County:
Walberg - 60.11%, Schauer - 34.92% - 19989 votes, 5034 vote spread

Jackson County:
Schauer - 48.19%, Walberg - 47.12% - 72583 votes, -780 vote spread

Lenawee County
Walberg - 49.15%, Schauer - 47.15% - 46696 votes, 934 vote spread

Washtenaw County
Schauer - 50.74%, Walberg - 44.40% - 49349 votes, -3129 vote spread
------------------------------


Jackson County flipped, as I expected (as well as both state rep districts there). Calhoun County was closer this time, and not a blowout. Walberg took Lenawee and helped us flip the state rep district back for the first time since Walberg had that district himself. Eaton County is still a bear for Walberg. It's a county with a lot of state workers, and Walberg's strong anti-tax and anti-spending views do not sell there as well as they do in Hillsdale.

Calhoun County was closer than expected. Schauer took Springfield, Albion and Battle Creek big, as well as Bedford Twp and Tekonsha Twp. Walberg took the City and Township of Marshall, Albion Twp, Athens Twp, Burlington, Clarence, Clarendon, Convis, Eckford, Emmet, Fredonia, Homer, Lee, Marengo, Pennfield, and Sheridan Townships. Emmet, Homer, Pennfield, and Marshall flipped to Walberg. Schauer flipped Tekonsha.


Walberg took the Washtenaw County portion of the district for the 1st time, the same area that Mark Ouimet took from the democrats in the state rep district. Walberg took Bridgewater, Dexter Twp (not the village which is largely in Scio Twp), Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lodi Twp (in a blowout solely to precinct 1, he lost precinct 2). Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp, Northfield Twp, the small part of Pittsfield Twp, Salem Twp, City of Saline, Saline Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp. Schauer took Chelsea and Scio Twp (big). Dexter Twp, Lyndon Twp, Manchester Twp,  Northfield Twp,  City of Saline, and Webster Twp flipped.


It'll be interesting what the redistricters decide to do besides go after Gary Peters. If I'm drawing the map, I'm giving Eaton County to Mike Rogers who does relatively well in the Lansing area for a Republican. I'll give Barry and Monroe Counties to Walberg instead (all districts need to expand). Barry County is strongly Republican, and while Monroe County is more historically democrat than Eaton, it's still a better matchup than Eaton County for Tim Walberg as an individual. I'd give Scio Township to Dingell's district.

Intolerance in Howell Schools

I was up north on break and saw a couple of interesting stories. First is the latest from Howell Schools.

Thanks to Jay McDowell, MEA leader and Howell teacher, Howell Schools got itself in the news again. It was something that could have been avoided. This was on a day were several wore purple as an anti-bullying symbol. (On a side note, if you want to stop bullying, start allowing self-defense for once. Nothing stops a bully better than a good right hand impacting the jawbone)

I’ll start out with this. Schools aren’t the place for social issue agendas sanctioned by government. That means Superintendents, Principals, other administrators, or teachers. That goes regardless of which side of the issue. Gay rights agendas and anti gay rights agendas do not belong there. Reading, writing, math, history, and science belong there. Facts belong there.

The closest thing to political agendas which belong in class is related stuff lead by a devil’s advocate and neutral facilitator. My current events class (which was during an election year) I took in Brighton was excellent. The teacher there did an excellent job. I found out later that he leaned left, but did not show it in class. He was tough, but fair to all sides, and that’s how it should be. It was also time, place and manner. An economics class is a different deal. It’s not history class. It’s not government class. It’s not current events. (I have to wonder if there’s anything mentioned besides Keynesian stuff in that class)

From what it sounds, one student wore a Confederate Battle Flag belt buckle to class. The flag has several meanings to different people, not all of them symbols of “hate.” It can mean:

1. Rebel. Some fly the flag as a rebel against all authority.
2. Lynyrd Skynyrd or Southern Rock fans. There’s plenty of Southern Rock fans north of the Mason-Dixon line.
3. Southern heritage. There are a sizable number of Southern and Appalachian Transplants and their descendents in Southeast Michigan with the automobile factories.
4. Some indeed use that flag for white supremacy. Those offended by the flag point to this view and refuse to accept others.

While I have no problems with the flag, I won’t fly or wear the flag as my ancestors were union, and became citizens because of the civil war. Although with the politically correct hype these days, I’m tempted to fly that one as well as the Gadsden Flag. Some people need to be tweaked. I won’t fly it, but I love seeing the left get bent out of shape by that flag.

McDowell was offended by the belt buckle and apparently told the student to remove it. Another student compared wearing the belt buckle to someone wearing gay rights shirts (which was against his Catholic Religion) on the day of bullying. McDowell told the person to leave the classroom. This student repeatedly said he wasn’t against gays, just compared the confederate flag to the rainbow flag.

The perception here is that “tolerance” means follow the left’s agenda and the MEA’s agenda. Period. “Conform or be cast out” to quote the Rush song “Subdivisions.” Jay McDowell could have stood up for true tolerance. He failed. Instead, he, as a fairly high ranked big fish in the small pond government official using the power of authority, bullied and was intolerant to views he doesn’t care for.

What should have happened is a lesson in true tolerance in a real neutral tolerant manner.

1. Explain why the flag is offensive to some. Explain other meanings used of the flag.
2. Explain how homosexuality is against some beliefs, and also how people get offended by that.
3. Also mention the recent suicides and why there is a problem with bullying and how derogatory names for homosexuals are a favorite weapon used and how that is unacceptable. The confederate flag has nothing to do with that.
4. Then on to class.

Many MEA supporters wonder why teachers get maligned. Actions like those taken by Mr. McDowell are the reason why it happens. McDowell’s actions, ironically were the same type of actions as those he claims to oppose - Bullying actions. Conform or be cast out.

McDowell was rightly disciplined. Tolerance includes tolerating views which one does not personally support. That's something the left has a major problem grasping.

Friday, November 05, 2010

A Closer Look at Northern Michigan's results

A closer look at Northern Michigan results

Until I get a close look at all of the municipalities themselves, I can’t get a real good read on most of the races. One of the exceptions is in Northern Michigan (called Up North locally) because of its rural character.

While the Republicans massacred the democrats this year throughout the country, no where was it more of a route than Up North. People who don’t know Michigan politics assume that because North Michigan is mostly rural, it is republican. No. It varies. The Lake Michigan coast in the Lower Peninsula are largely Gerry Ford types (With Traverse City itself leaning democrat, not as much as its reputation). The Northern Lower interior is very Conservative and mostly Republican north of Roscommon (Energy, middle class retirees) The Sunrise coast is a swing area (with Alpena leaning democrat) with its social conservative and labor influence. Roscommon Southeast to Northern Bay County is labor influenced (Corrections, retirees) and leans conservative democrat. The Western UP leans slightly democrat outside of Houghton area. The Eastern UP leans slightly Republican. The Marquette area is strongly democrat. The Menominee/Escanaba area swings with a slight democrat lean.

Not this time. Marquette, Alger, and Gogebic County (with Chippewa for McDowell only) are the only democrat counties this time in Northern Michigan. Why is this important statewide when the area has maybe 10% of the population? The reason is the number of normally competitive seats Up North. A plurality of our pickups were up North. Some of our best defenses were also up north. Ten seats there are realistically winnable by either party. That’s enough to flip control of either chambers in most years.

The UP results were most surprising to me. The yellow dogs are no more. They are either full ticketsplitters on the whole ticket or are now part of the Republican base. It is too early to consider them the base. It will take at least 8-10 years for that determination to happen. They gave the GOP a chance. Don’t blow it. What shocked me is that we took five UP based seats from the democrats. MI-01 wasn’t a surprise except for the margin. McDowell’s old seat was a matter of time, but largely due to Emmet County being a base county. Nerat’s seat was winnable. The old Lahti/Rich Brown was until recently what I call good enough to lose. It’s enough to suck you into thinking we’ll win, but was out of reach. Then there’s what is now Casperson’s win against the 2nd strongest democrat in the UP not named Stupak. That was a base seat for the democrats. The UP minus two Republican leaning counties.

The First District (MI-01) set the tale of the day. Dr. Dan Benishek beat McDowell by 10%. I thought this would be about 3%.


  Dan  Gary  Glenn  Other 3rd TOTAL 



COUNTY  Benishek  McDowell  Wilson 
BY  Benishek McDowell Wilson 3rd
  REP  DEM  NPA 
COUNTY 



ALCONA 2,603 1,433 177 291 4,504 57.79% 31.82% 3.93% 6.46%
ALGER 1,749 1,761 113 148 3,771 46.38% 46.70% 3.00% 3.92%
ALPENA 5,569 3,794 320 343 10,026 55.55% 37.84% 3.19% 3.42%
ANTRIM 5,589 3,491 378 376 9,834 56.83% 35.50% 3.84% 3.82%
ARENAC 2,621 2,079 308 325 5,333 49.15% 38.98% 5.78% 6.09%
BARAGA 1,382 1,124 65 82 2,653 52.09% 42.37% 2.45% 3.09%
BAY 5,700 4,780 335 555 11,370 50.13% 42.04% 2.95% 4.88%
CHARLEVOIX 5,752 3,767 299 374 10,192 56.44% 36.96% 2.93% 3.67%
CHEBOYGAN 5,502 3,905 254 351 10,012 54.95% 39.00% 2.54% 3.51%
CHIPPEWA 5,477 5,775 221 293 11,766 46.55% 49.08% 1.88% 2.49%
CRAWFORD 2,547 1,805 178 291 4,821 52.83% 37.44% 3.69% 6.04%
DELTA 6,779 5,730 255 365 13,129 51.63% 43.64% 1.94% 2.78%
DICKINSON 5,577 3,421 220 218 9,436 59.10% 36.25% 2.33% 2.31%
EMMET 7,397 5,040 328 374 13,139 56.30% 38.36% 2.50% 2.85%
GLADWIN 4,520 3,439 314 527 8,800 51.36% 39.08% 3.57% 5.99%
GOGEBIC 2,313 2,759 107 144 5,323 43.45% 51.83% 2.01% 2.71%
HOUGHTON 6,628 4,926 200 407 12,161 54.50% 40.51% 1.64% 3.35%
IOSCO 4,611 3,539 696 697 9,543 48.32% 37.08% 7.29% 7.30%
IRON 2,432 1,894 102 131 4,559 53.35% 41.54% 2.24% 2.87%
KEWEENAW 641 412 24 30 1,107 57.90% 37.22% 2.17% 2.71%
LUCE 1,017 808 63 61 1,949 52.18% 41.46% 3.23% 3.13%
MACKINAC 2,351 2,200 0 135 4,686 50.17% 46.95% 0.00% 2.88%
MARQUETTE 9,301 11,181 539 727 21,748 42.77% 51.41% 2.48% 3.34%
MENOMINEE 3,823 2,999 107 209 7,138 53.56% 42.01% 1.50% 2.93%
MONTMORENCY 2,103 1,314 213 199 3,829 54.92% 34.32% 5.56% 5.20%
OGEMAW 3,461 2,592 1,045 327 7,425 46.61% 34.91% 14.07% 4.40%
ONTONAGON 1,455 1,278 63 94 2,890 50.35% 44.22% 2.18% 3.25%
OSCODA 1,520 946 436 171 3,073 49.46% 30.78% 14.19% 5.56%
OTSEGO 5,133 2,995 224 288 8,640 59.41% 34.66% 2.59% 3.33%
PRESQUE ISLE 2,914 2,203 136 198 5,451 53.46% 40.41% 2.49% 3.63%
SCHOOLCRAFT 1,587 1,423 51 112 3,173 50.02% 44.85% 1.61% 3.53%
  Dan  Gary  Glenn 
TOTAL 



COUNTY  Benishek  McDowell  Wilson 
BY 



  REP  DEM  NPA 
COUNTY 



Totals  120,054 94,813 7,771 8843 231,481 51.86% 40.96% 3.36% 3.82%

One other lesson here is the futility of 3rd party candidates to be anything more than a protest vote. Glenn Wilson was supposed to be a very strong 3rd party candidate. He didn’t get a majority of the 3rd party vote (did get plurality). 3rd party votes were high, but totaled slightly over 7%. In order for 3rd party votes to be a threat, it must reach 30%. Wilson was held under 4% despite some democrats openly campaigning for him with conservatives. This race proves that like it or not, it’s a two party system with some protest votes. If you are looking to change things, the only to do it is through the two party system.

I said that Dr Dan had to do better than normal in his home area (Western UP), the old Stupak home base, and the Sunrise coast to win. That’s to offset McDowell’s district advantage in the district in the Eastern UP and Emmet County, which is a GOP base county he’s won in the past. McDowell won Marquette County, Alger County, and Gogebic County where just about any democrat can win. He won Chippewa County, but lost Mackinac County. He was also demolished on the sunrise coast. This was an easiser than expected win for Dr Dan.

The big surprise was the 38th District which is solidly democrat downticket……until now. Former State Rep Tom Casperson beat who I expected to be a very strong Western UP candidate in Mike Lahti for the ticket. It wasn’t close either. Casperson won everywhere except Marquette and Gogebic Counties. Even the western UP went for Casperson. Like Dr Dan’s race, it was a 10 point win.


  Tom  Michael  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Casperson  Lahti  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Casperson Lahti
02 ALGER 2,120 1,634 3,754 56.47% 43.53%
07 BARAGA 1,430 1,230 2,660 53.76% 46.24%
21 DELTA 8,300 4,868 13,168 63.03% 36.97%
22 DICKINSON 6,229 3,152 9,381 66.40% 33.60%
27 GOGEBIC 2,406 2,927 5,333 45.12% 54.88%
31 HOUGHTON 6,385 5,862 12,247 52.14% 47.86%
36 IRON 2,507 2,026 4,533 55.31% 44.69%
42 KEWEENAW 605 513 1,118 54.11% 45.89%
48 LUCE 1,178 741 1,919 61.39% 38.61%
52 MARQUETTE 10,580 11,099 21,679 48.80% 51.20%
55 MENOMINEE 4,669 2,607 7,276 64.17% 35.83%
66 ONTONAGON 1,552 1,382 2,934 52.90% 47.10%
77 SCHOOLCRAFT 1,907 1,280 3,187 59.84% 40.16%
  Tom  Michael  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Casperson  Lahti  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  49,868 39,321 89,189 55.91% 44.09%

  John  Andy  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Moolenaar  Neumann  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Moolenaar Neumann
01 ALCONA 2,767 1,744 4,511 61.34% 38.66%
04 ALPENA 5,259 4,750 10,009 52.54% 47.46%
20 CRAWFORD 2,824 1,843 4,667 60.51% 39.49%
26 GLADWIN 5,455 3,326 8,781 62.12% 37.88%
35 IOSCO 5,641 3,847 9,488 59.45% 40.55%
56 MIDLAND 20,245 8,301 28,546 70.92% 29.08%
60 MONTMORENCY 2,356 1,457 3,813 61.79% 38.21%
65 OGEMAW 4,434 2,892 7,326 60.52% 39.48%
68 OSCODA 1,894 1,140 3,034 62.43% 37.57%
69 OTSEGO 5,659 2,854 8,513 66.47% 33.53%
  John  Andy  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Moolenaar  Neumann  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  56,534 32,154 88,688 63.74% 36.26%

The 36th district is usually competitive when open, but not even close this year. Moolenaar won almost 2-1 and won every county, even Andy Neumann’s home county, Alpena.

The 110th was usually good enough to lose. Houghton tilts Republican sometimes, but Iron and Gogebic usually combine to offset any possible advantage. Not this time. 11pt victory. I’m not sure when the last time the GOP won the district. They came close in 2000.


  Matt  Scott  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Huuki  Dianda  BY 
 
CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Huuki Dianda
07 BARAGA 1,550 1,090 2,640 58.71% 41.29%
27 GOGEBIC 2,572 2,711 5,283 48.68% 51.32%
31 HOUGHTON 7,009 5,157 12,166 57.61% 42.39%
36 IRON 2,389 2,028 4,417 54.09% 45.91%
42 KEWEENAW 632 477 1,109 56.99% 43.01%
52 MARQUETTE 148 174 322 45.96% 54.04%
66 ONTONAGON 1,731 1,177 2,908 59.53% 40.47%
  Matt  Scott  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Huuki  Dianda  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  16,031 12,814 28,845 55.58% 44.42%

108th was starting to be a swing district, but the dems took it back recently when Casperson ran for Congress. Judy Nerat took the open seat. I thought this could be competitive, but I did not expect a 20 pt loss.

108th Ed  Judy  TOTAL 

COUNTY  McBroom  Nerat  BY  McBroom Nerat
CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

21 DELTA 7,431 5,571 13,002 57.15% 42.85%
22 DICKINSON 6,341 3,038 9,379 67.61% 32.39%
55 MENOMINEE 3,962 3,263 7,225 54.84% 45.16%
  Ed  Judy  TOTAL 

COUNTY  McBroom  Nerat  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  17,734 11,872 29,606 59.90% 40.10%

I expected the 107th to flip, but not a 2-1 margin.


107th Frank  Richard  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Foster  Timmer  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Foster Timmer
16 CHEBOYGAN 1,181 500 1,681 70.26% 29.74%
17 CHIPPEWA 6,397 5,079 11,476 55.74% 44.26%
24 EMMET 8,852 4,070 12,922 68.50% 31.50%
49 MACKINAC 2,907 1,701 4,608 63.09% 36.91%
  Frank  Richard  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Foster  Timmer  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  19,337 11,350 30,687 63.01% 36.99%

The 106th was a shock to me. It was another district which was “good enough to lose.” Alpena and Presque Isle counties are usually solidly democrat down ticket. Peter Pettalia won Alpena by 14pts which makes this a 20pt win. Andy Neumann and Matt Gillard had this district for years.


106th Peter  Casey  Nicholas  TOTAL 


COUNTY  Pettalia  Viegelahn  Hein  BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  NPA  COUNTY  Pettalia Casey Hein
01 ALCONA 2,866 1,438 178 4,482 63.94% 32.08% 3.97%
04 ALPENA 5,563 4,151 269 9,983 55.72% 41.58% 2.69%
20 CRAWFORD 2,923 1,528 255 4,706 62.11% 32.47% 5.42%
60 MONTMORENCY 2,359 1,227 195 3,781 62.39% 32.45% 5.16%
68 OSCODA 1,896 906 198 3,000 63.20% 30.20% 6.60%
71 PRESQUE ISLE 2,489 2,494 403 5,386 46.21% 46.31% 7.48%
  Peter  Casey  Nicholas  TOTAL 


COUNTY  Pettalia  Viegelahn  Hein  BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  NPA  COUNTY 


===============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ============== 


Totals  18,096 11,744 1,498 31,338 57.74% 37.48% 4.78%

The 103rd district tilts slightly republican at the top of the ticket, but they love the Sheltrowns, at least Dale and Joel. Van couldn’t win this seat however. I didn’t expect this to be a 25pt win, nor every county going republican here.


  Bruce  Van  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Rendon  Sheltrown  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Rendon Dem
35 IOSCO 5,516 3,986 9,502 58.05% 41.95%
57 MISSAUKEE 4,006 1,198 5,204 76.98% 23.02%
65 OGEMAW 4,348 3,112 7,460 58.28% 41.72%
72 ROSCOMMON 6,060 3,662 9,722 62.33% 37.67%
  Bruce  Van  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Rendon  Sheltrown  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  19,930 11,958 31,888 62.50% 37.50%

The 101st. District nearly flipped in 2006, and did flip in 2008. Both times, Dan Scripps was the democrat. He lost after one term in a 2008 rematch. This was close, but the top of the ticket likely carried Ray Franz past the finish line, just as Obama carried Scripps.


  Ray  Dan  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Franz  Scripps  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY  Franz Scripps
10 BENZIE 3,791 3,704 7,495 50.58% 49.42%
45 LEELANAU 5,881 5,433 11,314 51.98% 48.02%
51 MANISTEE 4,483 4,576 9,059 49.49% 50.51%
53 MASON 5,231 4,781 10,012 52.25% 47.75%
  Ray  Dan  TOTAL 

COUNTY  Franz  Scripps  BY 

CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  COUNTY 

===============  ==============  ==============  ============== 

Totals  19,386 18,494 37,880 51.18% 48.82%

The 97th was expected to be a tough defense. Jennifer Elkins won in 2002 for the dems. She lost to Tim Moore who won three terms and left it open. This wasn’t close. Every county is competitive here most years, not this one.


  Joel  Mark  Brandon  TOTAL 


COUNTY  Johnson  Lightfoot  Dickhausen  BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  LIB  COUNTY  Johnson Lightfoot Lib
06 ARENAC 2,877 1,899 550 5,326 54.02% 35.66% 10.33%
09 BAY 2,893 2,343 306 5,542 52.20% 42.28% 5.52%
18 CLARE 5,777 3,179 267 9,223 62.64% 34.47% 2.89%
26 GLADWIN 5,272 3,236 269 8,777 60.07% 36.87% 3.06%
  Joel  Mark  Brandon  TOTAL 


COUNTY  Johnson  Lightfoot  Dickhausen  BY 


CODE/NAME  REP  DEM  LIB  COUNTY 


===============  ==============  ==============  ==============  ============== 


Totals  16,819 10,657 1,392 28,868 58.26% 36.92% 4.82%

It was a massacre, and is a big reason why the house flipped and the senate stayed in GOP was because of the results up north.