Thursday, June 30, 2011

Congressional District 8 - Redistricted (MI-08)


Incumbent - Mike Rogers (R-Brighton/Howell)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 12
The old 8th District information is here

Challengers -  Lance Enderle (D-Lansing),

Update 8-30-2012 - Mike won his primary and will rematch with Lance Enderle in the general.

UPDATE - 5-1-2012 - Lance Enderle for the dems is running in a rematch of the 2010 matchup. Enderle unlike last election has been the candidate from the start instead of replacing a quitter who dropped when he wasn't getting the funding he thought he would get.

UPDATE 5-16-2012 - Michael Magdich is a Wayne County recent transplant who wants to give us Wayne County politics. In addition Molnar (unless it is another Vernon Molnar) ran against John Gleason in another district. Hetrick I'm not familiar with, outside of hearing that name before somewhere.


The old 8th district had to actually shrink people because it was fast growing and other areas dropped their population. It dropped Clinton and Shiawassee Counties, giving them back to Dave Camp. It picked up Oakland Township, the rest of Orion Township, Rochester, and most of Rochester Hills in Oakland County. That was picked up from Gary Peters.

The old district had about a 29000 vote spread for Bush and about a 26000 vote spread for Obama. The new district had about a 34000 vote spread for Bush and 21000 vote spread for Obama. I think it's actually slightly tougher for Mike though since he always ran well in Clinton and Shiawassee Counties and is giving those areas up.

I'm putting up the 08 numbers for Mike instead of 2010. The dems in 2010 for this district were an absolute joke. Kande Ngalamulume was the original opponent. He ran, and then whined and quit when major financial support did not immediately go his way. He didn't show that he was stronger than Bob Alexander or Jim Marcinkowski. Nglamulume and his campaign manager didn't like that so they whined about the lack of support, quit, and moved backed to Pennsylvania. He still won the primary against a write in candidate by Lande Enderle. Enderle actually wasn't a joke and did the best he could in a no-win situation. Eventually due to Nglamulume's move, Enderle was able to get on the ballot as a replacement although there wasn't much time for a candidacy.

Any district with Lansing, East Lansing, and Okemos together is never going to be truly safe for a Republican. Any district with North Oakland and Livingston County together is never going to be safe for a democrat. North Oakland is like the old Oakland County of the 80's. Livingston County hasn't voted for a democrat countywide since Frank Kelley in either 1990 or 1986.

Under the old district, North Oakland had a 19000 vote spread for Bush and 9000 spread for McCain. Livingston was almost 25000 and 14000. Ingham County outside of the Lansing area is competitive. It had a 6500 vote spread for Bush and about a 300 vote spread for Obama. The Lansing area however was about a 26000 vote spread for Kerry and almost 48000 vote spread for Obama. To win this district you have to rack up big numbers with the base votes, and also reduce your opponent's base. Rogers runs well in Ingham County, specifically the rural areas and to a lesser extent, Lansing. In 2008, Rogers lost the Lansing area by less than half of what McCain did and won the new portion district with about 45000 votes to spare.

The only way I see Rogers not running for re-election in this district is if he's bumped off the Intelligence Committee. That's the one he wanted for years. If he runs for senate or governor, he'll have to give up his chairmanship of the committee. I don't think he wants to do that. If this seat opens up there's no shortage of strong candidates. On the GOP side, Joe Hune, Bill Rogers, Jim Marleau, Cindy Denby, and Ruth Johnson could win this. On the dems side, Virg Bernero, Gretchen Whitmer, Dianne or Barb Byrum, or Dave Hollister could be a threat.




2008







McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Ingham County 46483 93994 140477 -47511 33.09% 66.91% -33.82%
Livingston County 55592 42349 97941 13243 56.76% 43.24% 13.52%
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Addison Twp 2248 1339 3587 909 62.67% 37.33% 25.34%
Brandon Twp 4834 3564 8398 1270 57.56% 42.44% 15.12%
Clarkston City 298 252 550 46 54.18% 45.82% 8.36%
Groveland Twp 1769 1275 3044 494 58.11% 41.89% 16.23%
Holly Twp 2678 2969 5647 -291 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Independence Twp 11000 8253 19253 2747 57.13% 42.87% 14.27%
Oakland Twp 5965 3679 9644 2286 61.85% 38.15% 23.70%
Orion Twp 10042 8512 18554 1530 54.12% 45.88% 8.25%
Oxford Twp 5836 4484 10320 1352 56.55% 43.45% 13.10%
Rochester  3515 3319 6834 196 51.43% 48.57% 2.87%
Rochester Hills (part) 19919 18834 38753 1085 51.40% 48.60% 2.80%
Rose Twp 1936 1573 3509 363 55.17% 44.83% 10.34%
Springfield Twp 4654 3176 7830 1478 59.44% 40.56% 18.88%
Total 176769 197572 374341 -20803 47.22% 52.78% -5.56%









Bush  Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Ingham County 54734 76877 131611 -22143 41.59% 58.41% -16.82%
Livingston County 58860 33991 92851 24869 63.39% 36.61% 26.78%
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Addison Twp 2406 1113 3519 1293 68.37% 31.63% 36.74%
Brandon Twp 4852 3030 7882 1822 61.56% 38.44% 23.12%
Clarkston City 322 252 574 70 56.10% 43.90% 12.20%
Groveland Twp 1988 1204 3192 784 62.28% 37.72% 24.56%
Holly Twp 2813 2442 5255 371 53.53% 46.47% 7.06%
Independence Twp 12199 6847 19046 5352 64.05% 35.95% 28.10%
Oakland Twp 6212 2898 9110 3314 68.19% 31.81% 36.38%
Orion Twp 11362 6887 18249 4475 62.26% 37.74% 24.52%
Oxford Twp 6155 3577 9732 2578 63.24% 36.76% 26.49%
Rochester  3979 2647 6626 1332 60.05% 39.95% 20.10%
Rochester Hills (part) 22733 15571 38304 7162 59.35% 40.65% 18.70%
Rose Twp 2139 1337 3476 802 61.54% 38.46% 23.07%
Springfield Twp 4946 2710 7656 2236 64.60% 35.40% 29.21%
Total 195700 161383 357083 34317 54.81% 45.19% 9.61%








2008







Rogers Alexander Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Ingham County 60867 72386 133253 -11519 45.68% 54.32% -8.64%
Livingston County 63946 29186 93132 34760 68.66% 31.34% 37.32%
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Addison Twp 2310 940 3250 1370 71.08% 28.92% 42.15%
Brandon Twp 4504 2693 7197 1811 62.58% 37.42% 25.16%
Clarkston City 344 179 523 165 65.77% 34.23% 31.55%
Groveland Twp 1813 943 2756 870 65.78% 34.22% 31.57%
Holly Twp 2897 2296 5193 601 55.79% 44.21% 11.57%
Independence Twp 12137 5678 17815 6459 68.13% 31.87% 36.26%
Oakland Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Orion Twp 8429 4202 12631 4227 66.73% 33.27% 33.47%
Oxford Twp 6088 3237 9325 2851 65.29% 34.71% 30.57%
Rochester 

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Rochester Hills (part)

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Rose Twp 2093 1122 3215 971 65.10% 34.90% 30.20%
Springfield Twp 4968 2222 7190 2746 69.10% 30.90% 38.19%
Total 170396 125084 295480 45312 57.67% 42.33% 15.34%

1 comment:

Communications guru said...

Hey genius, it has been “approved by our state legislature at this time.”
Seriously; there's no shortage of strong candidates on the GOP side, Joe Hune, Bill Rogers, Jim Marleau, Cindy Denby, and Ruth Johnson? I might buy Johnson, but you have to be joking with the rest.