Friday, November 25, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 40 (HD-40)

State House - District 40
Current Reps - Open or Lisa Brown (D-West Bloomfield), Chuck Moss termed out.

Declared Candidates:
Rep - Michael McCready (R-Bloomfield Hills),
Dem - Dorion Coston (D-West Bloomfield)

Update 5-26-2012 - Four way primary here for an open seat. Brown's not running here either. Potts is probably a favorite to win being a county commissioner, but others aren't rookies. Lawrence is on the school board, McCready is on Bloomfield Hills City Commission and an ex-mayor. Wolkinson is the only candidate from West Bloomfield. This is going to be a primary to watch.

Update 8-30-2012 - Michael McCready wins the tough four way primary with several strong candidates. Big win for him, and he'll be favored in the general, although this is not a gimme of a district.

2010 Results - Old District (39th)
Lisa Brown - 17,137
Lois Shulman - 17,051

Old District (40th)
Chuck Moss - 27,622
Julie Chandler - 13,346

This district become much more potentially competitive. The old district covers Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Bloomfield Township, Keego Harbor, Sylvan Lake, Orchard Lake, and Southfield Twp. It drops Keego Harbor, Sylvan Lake, and Orchard Lake to the 29th District, Southfield Township to the 35th District, and adds Eastern West Bloomfield to the district.

Bloomfield Hills and Bloomfield Township are solidly Republican. Birmingham leans our way but can be competitive. This portion of West Bloomfield is extremely democrat. Dave's Redistricting has this seat at a little over 52% for Obama. On paper, this district is like the new 39th in partisanship, but I think this is the weaker district now. Bloomfield Hills and Bloomfield Township's population demographics are slightly less favorable than Commerce Township.

I do think this district should stay ours, but I'm not going to count this one for us in 2012 just yet.

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

I believe that Lisa Brown is in 39. We should pick up that district when she leaves, if not in 2012.

I would have preferred that the worst parts of West Bloomfield be added to the Pontiac district. Then 40 could take Auburn Hills. This would be less Republican than the current 40 but better than the new one.