Friday, November 25, 2011

State House Redistricting - District 41 (HD-41)

State House - District 41
Current Reps - Open, Marty Knollenberg termed out

Declared Candidates:
Rep -  Martin Howrylak (R-Troy)
Dem - Mary Kerwin (D-Troy)

Update 5-25-2012 - Three way primary here. I've heard the name Matt Pryor from somewhere, although I'm not 100% sure from where. I also don't follow Troy politics closely.

Update 8-30-2012 - Martin Howrylak wins the primary.

2010 Results - Old District (41st)
Marty Knollenberg - 22,751
Ed Spillers - 11,571

This is an open seat based in Troy and Clawson. It's unchanged with redistricting. Troy leans republican but is getting more competitive. Clawson is very competitive and voted for Gore, Bush, and Obama.

I'll be surprised if this seat flips, even in an open seat. However, it could be a darkhorse if 2012 is a disaster. I know there's been county commissioner seats competitive in this area in the past. This area does generally lean republican with Troy, McCain/Obama  being a big exception.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Clawson 2998 3912 6910 -914 43.39% 56.61% -13.23%
Troy 21230 21517 42747 -287 49.66% 50.34% -0.67%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 24228 25429 49657 -1201 48.79% 51.21% -2.42%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Clawson 3584 3471 7055 113 50.80% 49.20% 1.60%
Troy 24171 18175 42346 5996 57.08% 42.92% 14.16%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 27755 21646 49401 6109 56.18% 43.82% 12.37%








Last State House GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Clawson 2407 1677 4084 730 58.94% 41.06% 17.87%
Troy 20047 11571 31618 8476 63.40% 36.60% 26.81%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 22454 13248 35702 9206 62.89% 37.11% 25.79%

2 comments:

helzapoppn said...

Do you think Janice Daniels, current Mayor of Troy elected on a pure Tea Party, small government platform, has her eye on this open House seat?

Republican Michigander said...

She's getting her name in the papers, but and City Government can both help and hurt a run. Politics can get nasty there. I don't think Daniels will get a free pass if she runs.

Among Commissioners, Gosselin's termed out for state rep, but Mike Bosnic of Clawson is not and depending on redistricting could make a run. Bosnic won a rematch in 2010 with Burns. Bosnic/Burns seat is Clawson based, so it's not easy for anybody to win. I'll be surprised if Bosnic doesn't run for state rep.

Burns could make it interesting for the dems. He's won there, but lost there, to Bosnic.

That's not counting the self funding businessmen who may run, which are likely more numerous in Troy than elsewhere.