Sunday, July 31, 2011

Local updates. Green Oak has millage. Hamburg Twp Settles.

Two local updates. First off, Green Oak Township will be having a millage August 2nd over police and fire coverage.

Also, Hamburg's antics from a couple of years back just cost them $50,000 in a settlement.

From the Argus

Ex-Hamburg Township Deputy Clerk Mike Zeglevski's lawsuit in U.S. District Court against his former employer is over.

Parties agreed to a $50,000 out-of-court settlement awarded to Zeglevski, which will be paid by the township's insurance carrier, the Michigan Municipal Risk Management Authority.

In the settlement, there was not an admission of guilt by either party.

"I'm very, very happy with the settlement and feel completely vindicated," Zeglevski said.

Dennis Gabrian, Zeglevski's attorney, said he was "satisfied with the settlement."

This whole thing was stupid. No, not the settlement itself, since I think that Mike Z would have won rather easily (and rightly so) from what I have heard about it. What was stupid is the board antics in the first place causing this and wasting taxpayer money. Everybody knew that there was little love lost between the board, Mike Z, and his boss Matt Skiba. Skiba was elected and appointed Mike Z as his deputy. The board didn't like that and wanted to drive both of them out, with salary games and other things. Their mouths and gamesmenship got them in trouble.

Skiba was run out 79%-21% in a recall election and replaced by Jim Neilson. Since the board wanted to get rid of both Skiba and Mike Z so badly, all that was needed to do from their standpoint is recall Skiba. Deputy clerks work for the clerk. If Skiba went, so did Mike Z unless Neilson was going to keep him on, which likely would not happen. If they kept their mouths shut about Mike Z, paid him a normal amount, and recalled Skiba like they were going to do anyway, this would not have happened.

Instead, these games are going to cost $50K of liability insurance, increased insurance rates, and as a result, more tax money. The only good thing about all of this right now from a county resident standpoint is that the hornet's nest in Hamburg right now is quiet. Hopefully it will stay quiet. We'll see.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 22 (SD-22)

State Senate - District 22
Current Rep – Joe Hune (R-Hamburg Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (22st)
Joe Hune - 65,170
Chuck Fellows - 29,325

This district had to contract in size due to Livingston County's population growth. It dropped Shiawasse County to the 24th District and its portion of Ingham County to the 23rd district. It adds Western Washtenaw County instead. It drops swing areas that supported Joe heavily and picks up another swing area overall, although it's much different than Shiawassee County.

I thought this district was going to be worse with the redistricting than it was. I commented that Joe took one for the team based on my eye test instead of running the number. I think he did because of his personal strength in Shiawassee County, but even if he craters in Washtenaw County (which I don't expect), there shouldn't be a general election problem. Even McCain (who ANNOUNCED he quit Michigan) won the district, and Joe gets a lot more than 56% against a democrat in Livingston County. Joe actually gets a LOT of independent votes in the county as well because he works hard, hits their doors, and does what he says he's going to do. He didn't vote for that pension tax.

This is still a safe GOP district. Any district with all of Livingston County is safe unless you have high population democrat strongholds also in the district (Like Mike Rogers having Lansing and East Lansing). Ann Arbor and Ypsi are in a different state senate district, and Scio Township alone won't counter the entire county. Despite it being safe, Joe won't take this district for granted - primary or general. He won his first race by two votes, so he'll take everything seriously. Paul Rogers (who ran an actual race against Joe) found out how strong Joe is as a candidate. I think whoever talked Paul Rogers into running owes him an apology. I expect that result will stop any potential non-quixotic primary challengers in 2014. There's one I think might try, who I won't name, but I think he'll get a very rude awakening if he goes for it. He's a strong candidate, but Joe's stronger.

Farm club favors the GOP. Former state rep Pam Byrnes is strong in Chelsea and Scio, but doesn't have the best two areas of her old state rep district in this district. Her support for high taxes, abortion, and gun control won't sell in Livingston County at all either. Bill Rogers and Cindy Denby are termed out of their state rep races in 2014. Mark Ouimet is termed out of his state rep race in 2016. I expect them to be potential challengers for this district in 2018. There's no shortage of county commissioners or township supervisors either who can run. Barring an absolute disaster, this one's not going dem.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Livingston County 55592 42349 97941 13243 56.76% 43.24% 13.52%
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp 526 481 1007 45 52.23% 47.77% 4.47%
Chelsea 1214 1748 2962 -534 40.99% 59.01% -18.03%
Dexter Twp 1730 2064 3794 -334 45.60% 54.40% -8.80%
Freedom Twp 481 428 909 53 52.92% 47.08% 5.83%
Lima Twp 973 973 1946 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Lodi Twp 1894 1803 3697 91 51.23% 48.77% 2.46%
Lyndon Twp 735 843 1578 -108 46.58% 53.42% -6.84%
Manchester Twp 1241 1424 2665 -183 46.57% 53.43% -6.87%
Northfield Twp 2109 2310 4419 -201 47.73% 52.27% -4.55%
Saline Twp 539 507 1046 32 51.53% 48.47% 3.06%
Scio Twp 3772 7709 11481 -3937 32.85% 67.15% -34.29%
Sharon Twp 556 503 1059 53 52.50% 47.50% 5.00%
Sylvan Twp 919 996 1915 -77 47.99% 52.01% -4.02%
Webster Twp 1911 2186 4097 -275 46.64% 53.36% -6.71%
Total 74192 66324 140516 7868 52.80% 47.20% 5.60%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Livingston County 58860 33991 92851 24869 63.39% 36.61% 26.78%
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bridgwater Twp 550 352 902 198 60.98% 39.02% 21.95%
Chelsea 1300 1490 2790 -190 46.59% 53.41% -6.81%
Dexter Twp 1909 1672 3581 237 53.31% 46.69% 6.62%
Freedom Twp 481 405 886 76 54.29% 45.71% 8.58%
Lima Twp 926 709 1635 217 56.64% 43.36% 13.27%
Lodi Twp 2104 1519 3623 585 58.07% 41.93% 16.15%
Lyndon Twp 812 718 1530 94 53.07% 46.93% 6.14%
Manchester Twp 1299 1168 2467 131 52.66% 47.34% 5.31%
Northfield Twp 2352 2027 4379 325 53.71% 46.29% 7.42%
Saline Twp 612 464 1076 148 56.88% 43.12% 13.75%
Scio Twp 4244 6262 10506 -2018 40.40% 59.60% -19.21%
Sharon Twp 630 440 1070 190 58.88% 41.12% 17.76%
Sylvan Twp 983 819 1802 164 54.55% 45.45% 9.10%
Webster Twp 2097 1707 3804 390 55.13% 44.87% 10.25%
Total 79159 53743 132902 25416 59.56% 40.44% 19.12%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Livingston County 47189 17976 65165 29213 72.41% 27.59% 44.83%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 47189 17976 65165 29213 72.41% 27.59% 44.83%

State Senate Redistricting - District 21 (SD-21)

State Senate - District 21
Current Rep – John Proos (R-St Joseph)

2010 Results - Old District (21st)
John Proos - 49,818
Scott Elliot - 25,062

This district changed but is still centered on Berrien County. It keeps Cass County as well, but loses it's portion of Van Buren County to the 26th District. It also adds St Josepth County which was in the 16th District. It still leans Republican, although Cass County and Berrien County can sometimes be competitive due to Dowagiac, Cassopolis, and Vandalia in the former, and Benton Harbor and Niles in the latter. Benton Harbor in particular is a democrat stronghold, but is outvoted by the rest of the county. Some state rep races were much closer in this area than they should have been in 06 and 08.

This isn't completely safe, but this district certain leans GOP, 2008 numbers notwithstanding. Even in that year, the state rep districts here didn't flip. 08 was a perfect storm for SW Michigan. Minorities in Benton Harbor, Cassopolis, and Vandalia. Chicago influence on Lake Michigan Coast. Chicago is about a hour away from New Buffalo. Proos survived 08 by over 6000 votes despite straight ticket voting Benton Harbor and Benton Twp. That's despite the other state rep district in Berrien County being extremely close. Proos won't be easy for the dems to take out, especially in non presidential years with no Obama on the ticket.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Berrien County 36130 40381 76511 -4251 47.22% 52.78% -5.56%
Cass County 11114 12083 23197 -969 47.91% 52.09% -4.18%
St Joseph County 12886 12322 25208 564 51.12% 48.88% 2.24%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 60130 64786 124916 -4656 48.14% 51.86% -3.73%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Berrien County 41076 32846 73922 8230 55.57% 44.43% 11.13%
Cass County 12964 9537 22501 3427 57.62% 42.38% 15.23%
St Joseph County 15340 9648 24988 5692 61.39% 38.61% 22.78%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 69380 52031 121411 17349 57.14% 42.86% 14.29%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Berrien County 30915 14554 45469 16361 67.99% 32.01% 35.98%
Cass County 9124 4681 13805 4443 66.09% 33.91% 32.18%
St Joseph County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 40039 19235 59274 20804 67.55% 32.45% 35.10%

State Senate Redistricting - District 20 (SD-20)

State Senate - District 20
Current Rep – Tonya Schuitmaker (R-Lawton) or open

2010 Results - Old District (20th)
Tonya Schuitmaker - 47,680
Bobby Hopewell - 34,507

This district just got even tougher. It had to contract due to population growth, and it now consists solely of Kalamazoo County. Kalamazoo County leans democrat at the top of the ticket (Gore, Granholm, Kerry, Obama) but does elect some republicans downticket. Upton's won here several times. The suburban districts have all gone for republicans consistently for state rep. The old 20th district has stayed with the GOP voting for Tom George twice narrowly and then Tonya Schuitmaker. That's despite Schuitmaker being from Van Buren County.

Schuitmaker has two choices. She can run from her home in Van Buren County in the 26th District, or she can do what Valde Garcia did in 2002 and move to the district where she most represents. Kalamazoo County. There will likely either be a very tough primary against an Allegan County candidate or a tough general election race against a Kalamazoo Democrat.

The numbers below show how difficult this district can be. Luckily for the GOP, the democrat turnout is much higher in presidential years with the WMU community and minorities in Kalamazoo. The big key is in the suburbs. There will be likely a 12-20K vote deficit after Kalamazoo City/Township/Osthemo Twp (WMU) votes are in. The key to overcoming that is in the outer GOP townships and marginal suburbs like Portage and Comstock.


Kalamazoo County GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
2008 Presidential 51554 77051 128605 -25497 40.09% 59.91% -19.83%
2004 Presidential 57147 61462 118609 -4315 48.18% 51.82% -3.64%
Last St Senate 43606 32826 76432 10780 57.05% 42.95% 14.10%

State Senate Redistricting - District 19 (SD-19)

State Senate - District 19
Current Rep – Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek)

2010 Results - Old District (19th)
Mike Nofs - 46,543
Brenda Abbey - 26,657

The old 19th (Calhoun and part of Jackson County) was the swing district of swing districts. It generally mirrors the trend of the country. It was open in 2002 and went for Mark Schauer. Mike Nofs won it in a special election after Schauer won his congressional race in 2008. Nofs won re-election easily. The old 19th voted for Bush, Granholm, and Obama.

The new 19th is much more republican, dropping its portion of Jackson County (competitive, maybe slight republican) and picks up GOP stronghold Barry County from the 24th district and GOP leaning Ionia County from the 33rd district. The Jackson portion went to the 16th district.

The only way this district will flip is if the GOP candidate loses Calhoun County by a gigantic margin, and also underperforms in Barry/Ionia.  This district isn't safe, but leans GOP.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Barry County 16431 13449 29880 2982 54.99% 45.01% 9.98%
Calhoun County 28553 34561 63114 -6008 45.24% 54.76% -9.52%
Ionia County 14156 12565 26721 1591 52.98% 47.02% 5.95%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 59140 60575 119715 -1435 49.40% 50.60% -1.20%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Barry County 18638 11312 29950 7326 62.23% 37.77% 24.46%
Calhoun County 32093 29891 61984 2202 51.78% 48.22% 3.55%
Ionia County 16621 10647 27268 5974 60.95% 39.05% 21.91%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 67352 51850 119202 15502 56.50% 43.50% 13.00%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Barry County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Calhoun County 25918 14855 40773 11063 63.57% 36.43% 27.13%
Ionia County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 25918 14855 40773 11063 63.57% 36.43% 27.13%

State Senate Redistricting - District 18 (SD-18)

State Senate - District 18
Current Rep – Rebekah Warren (D-Ann Arbor)

2010 Results - Old District (18th)
Rebekah Warren - 60,333
John Hochstetler - 31,771

This district changed in the outlying areas, but it is still centered around Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti. It added the rest of Pittsfield Twp, the City of Saline, and York Twp from the 17th district. It dropped Chelsea, Dexter Twp, Freedom Twp, Lima Twp, Lyndon Twp, Northfield Twp, Scio Twp, Sharon Twp, Sylvan Twp, and Webster Twp to the 22nd District.

I don't believe the partisanship numbers changed that much. It dropped swing and GOP areas, as well as democrat Scio Twp. Pittsfield Twp is also strongly democrat. York Twp is GOP. Saline is a swing area.

Usually the democrat nomination is so leftist in this district, that even a lot of moderate democrats and independents cross over downticket. It's still not enough because of the Cities of Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti.  Poor Salem is stuck once again in the Ann Arbor district. I don't think they are too happy about it either.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ann Arbor 10712 51587 62299 -40875 17.19% 82.81% -65.61%
Ann Arbor Twp 829 1836 2665 -1007 31.11% 68.89% -37.79%
Augusta Twp 1489 1979 3468 -490 42.94% 57.06% -14.13%
Milan City 802 1151 1953 -349 41.07% 58.93% -17.87%
Pittsfield Twp 5042 11342 16384 -6300 30.77% 69.23% -38.45%
Salem Twp 2067 1510 3577 557 57.79% 42.21% 15.57%
Saline City 2221 2906 5127 -685 43.32% 56.68% -13.36%
Superior Twp 2048 4951 6999 -2903 29.26% 70.74% -41.48%
York Twp 2313 1934 4247 379 54.46% 45.54% 8.92%
Ypsilanti 1306 7828 9134 -6522 14.30% 85.70% -71.40%
Ypsilanti Twp 6517 19579 26096 -13062 24.97% 75.03% -50.05%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 35346 106603 141949 -71257 24.90% 75.10% -50.20%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ann Arbor 13153 45117 58270 -31964 22.57% 77.43% -54.85%
Ann Arbor Twp 1083 1787 2870 -704 37.74% 62.26% -24.53%
Augusta Twp 1411 1599 3010 -188 46.88% 53.12% -6.25%
Milan City 822 822 1644 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Pittsfield Twp 5839 9271 15110 -3432 38.64% 61.36% -22.71%
Salem Twp 2130 1330 3460 800 61.56% 38.44% 23.12%
Saline City 2656 2418 5074 238 52.35% 47.65% 4.69%
Superior Twp 2227 3948 6175 -1721 36.06% 63.94% -27.87%
York Twp 2367 1623 3990 744 59.32% 40.68% 18.65%
Ypsilanti 1581 6046 7627 -4465 20.73% 79.27% -58.54%
Ypsilanti Twp 7887 16240 24127 -8353 32.69% 67.31% -34.62%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 41156 90201 131357 -49045 31.33% 68.67% -37.34%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Washtenaw County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ann Arbor 7918 28388 36306 -20470 21.81% 78.19% -56.38%
Ann Arbor Twp 775 1110 1885 -335 41.11% 58.89% -17.77%
Augusta Twp 1149 1160 2309 -11 49.76% 50.24% -0.48%
Milan City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Pittsfield Twp 11 11 22 0 50.00% 50.00% 0.00%
Salem Twp 1733 796 2529 937 68.53% 31.47% 37.05%
Saline City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Superior Twp 1791 2794 4585 -1003 39.06% 60.94% -21.88%
York Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ypsilanti 902 3740 4642 -2838 19.43% 80.57% -61.14%
Ypsilanti Twp 4945 10905 15850 -5960 31.20% 68.80% -37.60%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 19224 48904 68128 -29680 28.22% 71.78% -43.57%

State Senate Redistricting - District 17 (SD-17)

State Senate - District 17
Current Rep – Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) Termed out

2010 Results - Old District (17th)
Randy Richardville -51,657
John Spencer -32,980

This district is a swing district. It's changed a bit to something similar to what it was in the 90's, but the numbers don't change that much. The Washtenaw County and Jackson County portions of the district went to the 16th, 18th, and 22nd districts. This district is now just Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

People rag on Richardville for being pro-union, but look at his district. Monroe County is a populist county. It'll elect people from both parties, but tends to favor Dingell democrats, 2010 notwithstanding. John Kerry types tend to lose here. Going back to 2000, Gore won Monroe and Bush won Lenawee. Clinton won both. The GOP had both state rep seats in Monroe in 2002 and lost them in 04 through 2010. The Dems had Lenawee state rep seat in 02 through 2010. In gubernatorial races, Posthumus won both counties, so did Granholm in 06. By every account except the Center For Michigan, this is a swing district.

I think this district may be our 2nd toughest defense. The reason being are the Spades (Doug and Dudley). They are now in this district, and I can see them selling in Monroe County. There's also no shortage of a farm club for dems in Monroe County. The GOP has three state reps now in this state senate district, so they have a farm club here as well. Expect a major battle for this seat.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lenawee County 22225 24640 46865 -2415 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Monroe County 35858 39180 75038 -3322 47.79% 52.21% -4.43%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 58083 63820 121903 -5737 47.65% 52.35% -4.71%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lenawee County 25675 20787 46462 4888 55.26% 44.74% 10.52%
Monroe County 37470 36089 73559 1381 50.94% 49.06% 1.88%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 63145 56876 120021 6269 52.61% 47.39% 5.22%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Lenawee County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Monroe County 29380 16762 46142 12618 63.67% 36.33% 27.35%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 29380 16762 46142 12618 63.67% 36.33% 27.35%

State Senate Redistricting - District 16 (SD-16)

State Senate - District 16
Current Rep – Bruce Caswell (R-Adams Twp)

2010 Results - Old District (16th)
Bruce Caswell - 47,504
Doug Spade - 26,181

This district changed dramatically back to something similar to the 1990's era district. Lenawee County was dropped to the 17th district. St Joseph County goes to the 21st. They instead pick up all of Jackson County from the 19th and 17th districts. Hillsdale and Branch Counties keep this a Republican leaning district. Jackson is a competitive county every election, although Republicans win it more than democrats, albeit the numbers are narrow every election.

The numbers may not show it, but Caswell actually beat a strong opponent in Doug Spade. The Spades have represented Lenawee County for 12 years as state reps, replacing Tim Walberg who is now in Congress. The GOP finally took the state rep district there back in 2010. The big numbers in the Caswell race is due to Hillsdale and Branch Counties being GOP strongholds. They ran almost even up in Lenawee County despite 2010 being a blowout year.

Overall, this is a safe GOP district outside of an absolute disaster. Even McCain won it. Jackson County could flip in a bad year, but Hillsdale and Branch should offset any voting deficits there. Jackson's state rep districts flipped back to the GOP too, so the farm club there is weak for the dems.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 9534 8413 17947 1121 53.12% 46.88% 6.25%
Jackson County 35692 37480 73172 -1788 48.78% 51.22% -2.44%
Hillsdale County 11221 8765 19986 2456 56.14% 43.86% 12.29%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 56447 54658 111105 1789 50.81% 49.19% 1.61%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 10784 7004 17788 3780 60.63% 39.37% 21.25%
Jackson County 40029 31025 71054 9004 56.34% 43.66% 12.67%
Hillsdale County 12804 7123 19927 5681 64.25% 35.75% 28.51%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 63617 45152 108769 18465 58.49% 41.51% 16.98%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Branch County 9899 2855 12754 7044 77.61% 22.39% 55.23%
Jackson County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Hillsdale County 11190 2954 14144 8236 79.11% 20.89% 58.23%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 21089 5809 26898 15280 78.40% 21.60% 56.81%

State Senate Redistricting - District 15 (SD-15)

State Senate - District 15
Current Rep – Mike Kowall (R-White Lake)

2010 Results - Old District (15th)
Mike Kowall - 65,216
Pam Jackson - 39,233

This district is now less Republican because it had to contract in size due to population growth. Highland, Holly, and Rose Townships were given up to Dave Robertson. It still leans Republican, but could be future trouble in a bad year with the voting trends, 2010 not withstanding. West Bloomfield is a democrat stronghold. Wixom swings depending on turnout at the apartment complexes. Walled Lake is a swing area. Novi and Northville aren't as Republican as it used to be (some of the few ares where John Kerry outperformed Al Gore). Commerce Twp borders West Bloomfield. If migration patterns are similar as they used to be, then that will follow in its footsteps. White Lake, South Lyon, Lyon Township, and Milford are solidly republican and should keep this district in line as long as the candidates do not completely bomb in Novi like McCain did in 08. The two major keys here are the voting deficit in West Bloomfield and the numbers in Novi.

I don't see Kowall losing this district, but an open seat could be dangerous with a contentious primary. I'll be surprised if it flips, but a candidate can't get in the mode of "the primary is over, so is the election" with West Bloomfield here. The good news is that there's only one state rep district in this state senate district that's democrat. The bad news is that losing Highland and Rose Townships reduce the margin of error.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 11428 9900 21328 1528 53.58% 46.42% 7.16%
Lyon Twp 4130 3009 7139 1121 57.85% 42.15% 15.70%
Milford 5105 3851 8956 1254 57.00% 43.00% 14.00%
Northville 1127 1001 2128 126 52.96% 47.04% 5.92%
Novi 13264 14397 27661 -1133 47.95% 52.05% -4.10%
Novi Twp 52 57 109 -5 47.71% 52.29% -4.59%
Orchard Lake 821 648 1469 173 55.89% 44.11% 11.78%
South Lyon 2983 2712 5695 271 52.38% 47.62% 4.76%
Walled Lake 1517 1823 3340 -306 45.42% 54.58% -9.16%
West Bloomfield Twp 13967 22730 36697 -8763 38.06% 61.94% -23.88%
White Lake Twp 8563 7196 15759 1367 54.34% 45.66% 8.67%
Wixom 3077 3495 6572 -418 46.82% 53.18% -6.36%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 66034 70819 136853 -4785 48.25% 51.75% -3.50%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 12019 7838 19857 4181 60.53% 39.47% 21.06%
Lyon Twp 4082 2274 6356 1808 64.22% 35.78% 28.45%
Milford 5413 3252 8665 2161 62.47% 37.53% 24.94%
Northville 1269 866 2135 403 59.44% 40.56% 18.88%
Novi 14484 10612 25096 3872 57.71% 42.29% 15.43%
Novi Twp 67 40 107 27 62.62% 37.38% 25.23%
Orchard Lake 938 580 1518 358 61.79% 38.21% 23.58%
South Lyon 3191 2236 5427 955 58.80% 41.20% 17.60%
Walled Lake 1664 1580 3244 84 51.29% 48.71% 2.59%
West Bloomfield Twp 16150 20317 36467 -4167 44.29% 55.71% -11.43%
White Lake Twp 9439 5821 15260 3618 61.85% 38.15% 23.71%
Wixom 3484 2552 6036 932 57.72% 42.28% 15.44%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 72200 57968 130168 14232 55.47% 44.53% 10.93%








Last St Senate GOP Dem Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Commerce Twp 9650 4634 14284 5016 67.56% 32.44% 35.12%
Lyon Twp 3570 1389 4959 2181 71.99% 28.01% 43.98%
Milford 4608 1921 6529 2687 70.58% 29.42% 41.15%
Northville 1007 540 1547 467 65.09% 34.91% 30.19%
Novi 11277 6789 18066 4488 62.42% 37.58% 24.84%
Novi Twp 52 30 82 22 63.41% 36.59% 26.83%
Orchard Lake 755 297 1052 458 71.77% 28.23% 43.54%
South Lyon 2398 1167 3565 1231 67.27% 32.73% 34.53%
Walled Lake 1176 897 2073 279 56.73% 43.27% 13.46%
West Bloomfield Twp 11964 12892 24856 -928 48.13% 51.87% -3.73%
White Lake Twp 7655 3196 10851 4459 70.55% 29.45% 41.09%
Wixom 2379 1445 3824 934 62.21% 37.79% 24.42%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 56491 35197 91688 21294 61.61% 38.39% 23.22%

Friday, July 29, 2011

State Senate Redistricting - District 14 (SD-14)

State Senate - District 14
Current Rep – Dave Robertson (R-Grand Blanc)

2010 Results - Old District (26th)
Dave Robertson - 49,700
Paula Zelenko - 36,231

This district was mostly the old 26th district, although made much safer. It was an accidental swing district that was created for Deb Cherry at first. She was given a free pass in 02 and lost the Oakland County portion and won underwhelmingly due to the North Oakland portion. 06 was an easier race in a bigtime dem year. At the top of the ticket, I believe Bush won the old district actually in 2004.

The Flint district had to expand some and it did. Robertson dropped the toughest parts of his district to the Flint district. Mount Morris, Vienna Twp, Clio, Thetford Twp, Forest Twp, Richfield Twp, and Burton all went to the 27th district. Robertson actually ran very well in those areas in 2010. He only lost Mt Morris, Clio, and Burton. I wouldn't count on that as an every election situation, even for a guy who is known as a hard worker who wins tough races.

Robertson did pick up slightly democrat Mundy Twp and the City of Fenton. He picked up swing Holly Twp, and strongly GOP Rose and Highland Twps, as well as Lake Angelus. Giving up Mt Morris Twp and Burton alone tilts this into a GOP leaning district. It's not a safe district, but less vulnerable that it was and will likely only be threatened in a year like 2008.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Genesee County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Atlas Twp 2481 2129 4610 352 53.82% 46.18% 7.64%
Davison 1053 1625 2678 -572 39.32% 60.68% -21.36%
Davison Twp 4474 5776 10250 -1302 43.65% 56.35% -12.70%
Fenton 2709 3129 5838 -420 46.40% 53.60% -7.19%
Grand Blanc 1991 2411 4402 -420 45.23% 54.77% -9.54%
Grand Blanc Twp 8309 10951 19260 -2642 43.14% 56.86% -13.72%
Mundy Twp 3688 4807 8495 -1119 43.41% 56.59% -13.17%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brandon Twp 4394 3564 7958 830 55.21% 44.79% 10.43%
Groveland Twp 1769 1275 3044 494 58.11% 41.89% 16.23%
Highland Twp 5987 4533 10520 1454 56.91% 43.09% 13.82%
Holly Twp 2678 2969 5647 -291 47.42% 52.58% -5.15%
Lake Angelus 201 59 260 142 77.31% 22.69% 54.62%
Rose Twp 1936 1573 3509 363 55.17% 44.83% 10.34%
Springfield Twp 4654 3176 7830 1478 59.44% 40.56% 18.88%
Waterford Twp 16968 19134 36102 -2166 47.00% 53.00% -6.00%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 63292 67111 130403 -3819 48.54% 51.46% -2.93%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Genesee County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Atlas Twp 2606 1704 4310 902 60.46% 39.54% 20.93%
Davison 1317 1540 2857 -223 46.10% 53.90% -7.81%
Davison Twp 4833 5041 9874 -208 48.95% 51.05% -2.11%
Fenton 3026 2554 5580 472 54.23% 45.77% 8.46%
Grand Blanc 2394 1985 4379 409 54.67% 45.33% 9.34%
Grand Blanc Twp 9369 8862 18231 507 51.39% 48.61% 2.78%
Mundy Twp 3999 4102 8101 -103 49.36% 50.64% -1.27%
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brandon Twp 4852 3030 7882 1822 61.56% 38.44% 23.12%
Groveland Twp 1988 1204 3192 784 62.28% 37.72% 24.56%
Highland Twp 6509 3849 10358 2660 62.84% 37.16% 25.68%
Holly Twp 2813 2442 5255 371 53.53% 46.47% 7.06%
Lake Angelus 217 43 260 174 83.46% 16.54% 66.92%
Rose Twp 2139 1337 3476 802 61.54% 38.46% 23.07%
Springfield Twp 4946 2710 7656 2236 64.60% 35.40% 29.21%
Waterford Twp 19965 16504 36469 3461 54.75% 45.25% 9.49%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 70973 56907 127880 14066 55.50% 44.50% 11.00%








Last St Senate GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Genesee County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Atlas Twp 2142 884 3026 1258 70.79% 29.21% 41.57%
Davison 925 801 1726 124 53.59% 46.41% 7.18%
Davison Twp 3782 2520 6302 1262 60.01% 39.99% 20.03%
Fenton

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grand Blanc 1728 1212 2940 516 58.78% 41.22% 17.55%
Grand Blanc Twp 7088 5212 12300 1876 57.63% 42.37% 15.25%
Mundy Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Oakland County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Brandon Twp 3421 1473 4894 1948 69.90% 30.10% 39.80%
Groveland Twp 1425 541 1966 884 72.48% 27.52% 44.96%
Highland Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Holly Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Lake Angelus

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Rose Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Springfield Twp 3793 1329 5122 2464 74.05% 25.95% 48.11%
Waterford Twp 13532 8405 21937 5127 61.69% 38.31% 23.37%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 37836 22377 60213 15459 62.84% 37.16% 25.67%