Monday, January 16, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 59 (HD-59)

State House - District 59
Current Rep - Matt Lori (R-Constantine)

Candidates:
GOP - Matt Lori (R-Constantine)
Dem - Mike Moroz (D-Dowagiac)

Update 5-26-2012 - This is going to be a one on one battle. I'm keeping an eye on it because I do have some outside concerns here due to Dowagiac being picked up. 

2010 Results - Old District (59th)
Matt Lori - 17,604
Carol Higgins - 6,846

This district expanded some with redistricting, although it is similar to the old incarnation. Both versions cover all of St Joseph County and part of Cass County. This district took more of Cass County.

The part of Cass County covered with the old district is Calvin, Jefferson, LaGrange, Marcellus, Mason, Milton, Newberg, Ontwa, Penn, Pokagon, Porter, and Volinia Townships. The new district drops Milton and Ontwa Townships and picks up Wayne Township and most notably Dowagiac. This district was safe GOP before, and probably leans that way now, but Dowagiac and Vandalia (Heavily minority village, corner of four townships, I think Calvin, Penn, LaGrange, Jefferson) together without heavy GOP Ontwa Twp makes me slightly nervous. McCain absolutely got hammered in SW Michigan compared to Bush. SW Michigan has more ties to South Bend and Chicago than it does to Detroit. Obama won the district.

I'll call this a lean district for now. That's due to this being a presidential year with a district "close" to Chicago/South Bend, and also due to the neighboring 78th district (with Dowagiac) being competitive in the past.

This one should stay ours, but shouldn't be taken for granted.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
St Joseph County 12886 12322 25208 564 51.12% 48.88% 2.24%
Cass County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Calvin Twp 331 591 922 -260 35.90% 64.10% -28.20%
Dowagiac City 667 1548 2215 -881 30.11% 69.89% -39.77%
Jefferson Twp 611 577 1188 34 51.43% 48.57% 2.86%
Lagrange Twp 540 992 1532 -452 35.25% 64.75% -29.50%
Marcellus Twp 464 603 1067 -139 43.49% 56.51% -13.03%
Mason Twp 560 452 1012 108 55.34% 44.66% 10.67%
Newberg Twp 374 381 755 -7 49.54% 50.46% -0.93%
Penn Twp 467 464 931 3 50.16% 49.84% 0.32%
Pokagon Twp 479 560 1039 -81 46.10% 53.90% -7.80%
Porter Twp 1103 807 1910 296 57.75% 42.25% 15.50%
Volinia Twp 317 237 554 80 57.22% 42.78% 14.44%
Wayne Twp 566 630 1196 -64 47.32% 52.68% -5.35%



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Total 19365 20164 39529 -799 48.99% 51.01% -2.02%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
St Joseph County 15340 9648 24988 5692 61.39% 38.61% 22.78%
Cass County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Calvin Twp 440 379 819 61 53.72% 46.28% 7.45%
Dowagiac City 951 1207 2158 -256 44.07% 55.93% -11.86%
Jefferson Twp 656 444 1100 212 59.64% 40.36% 19.27%
Lagrange Twp 680 777 1457 -97 46.67% 53.33% -6.66%
Marcellus Twp 599 521 1120 78 53.48% 46.52% 6.96%
Mason Twp 627 347 974 280 64.37% 35.63% 28.75%
Newberg Twp 455 310 765 145 59.48% 40.52% 18.95%
Penn Twp 519 391 910 128 57.03% 42.97% 14.07%
Pokagon Twp 541 450 991 91 54.59% 45.41% 9.18%
Porter Twp 1262 537 1799 725 70.15% 29.85% 40.30%
Volinia Twp 355 251 606 104 58.58% 41.42% 17.16%
Wayne Twp 666 543 1209 123 55.09% 44.91% 10.17%



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Total 23091 15805 38896 7286 59.37% 40.63% 18.73%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
St Joseph County 11234 3945 15179 7289 74.01% 25.99% 48.02%
Cass County:

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Calvin Twp 289 204 493 85 58.62% 41.38% 17.24%
Dowagiac City

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Jefferson Twp 506 254 760 252 66.58% 33.42% 33.16%
Lagrange Twp 457 347 804 110 56.84% 43.16% 13.68%
Marcellus Twp 381 253 634 128 60.09% 39.91% 20.19%
Mason Twp 477 141 618 336 77.18% 22.82% 54.37%
Newberg Twp 322 145 467 177 68.95% 31.05% 37.90%
Penn Twp 405 182 587 223 68.99% 31.01% 37.99%
Pokagon Twp 374 228 602 146 62.13% 37.87% 24.25%
Porter Twp 935 280 1215 655 76.95% 23.05% 53.91%
Volinia Twp 242 109 351 133 68.95% 31.05% 37.89%
Wayne Twp

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Total 15622 6088 21710 9534 71.96% 28.04% 43.92%

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

This district is still safe. There is not a single elected democrat in St. Joseph County (including townships). Cass is more competitive, but still leans Republican. This district needed to suck up some democrats from 78 since that district was close in 2008.