Saturday, January 21, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 61 (HD-61)

State House - District 61
Current Rep - Margaret O'Brien (R-Portage)

Candidates:
GOP - Margaret O'Brien (R-Portage)
Dem - Michael Martin (D-Portage)

Update 5-26-2010 - I don't know anything about Martin. I'm keeping an eye on this although it's been "good enough to lose" for the dems.

Old District (61th)
Margaret O'Brien - 21,919
Thomas Batten - 13,671

This district is close on paper, but has been in the "good enough to lose" category for the democrats, much like the Alpena and West Branch seats were until recently. Jack Hoogendyk held this seat for three terms followed by Larry DeShazor's narrow win and now Margaret O'Brien who won easily.

The old district covered Alamo, part of Kalamazoo Twp, Oshtemo Twp, Parchment, Portage, Prairie Ronde Twp, and Texas Twp. The new district drops Kalamazoo Twp, Parchment, and Alamo Twp and adds Schoolcraft Twp. Alamo Twp went for McCain and Bush, Kalamazoo Twp went dem twice. Parchment went for Bush and Obama. Kalamazoo Twp is the biggest part that was dropped, so slight GOP advantage, although losing Alamo Twp hurt. Adding Schoolcraft Twp helped some.

On paper, this is a bit of a swing district. Off paper, it's elected Jack Hoogendyk three times. Jack's quite conservative, and outspokenly so. Oshtemo Twp leans democrat with WMU, but O'Brien won it. Portage is close at the top of the ticket, but is more GOP downticket. Portage is about 1/2 of the district. Texas Twp is the main GOP base. This is a district to keep an eye on as it's no stranger to tough elections, but it hasn't flipped even in two rough years (06/08).



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oshtemo Twp 4414 6565 10979 -2151 40.20% 59.80% -19.59%
Portage 11448 14049 25497 -2601 44.90% 55.10% -10.20%
Prairie Ronde Twp 770 538 1308 232 58.87% 41.13% 17.74%
Schoolcraft Twp 2164 2071 4235 93 51.10% 48.90% 2.20%
Texas Twp 4469 3864 8333 605 53.63% 46.37% 7.26%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 23265 27087 50352 -3822 46.20% 53.80% -7.59%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oshtemo Twp 4703 4850 9553 -147 49.23% 50.77% -1.54%
Portage 13115 11597 24712 1518 53.07% 46.93% 6.14%
Prairie Ronde Twp 848 456 1304 392 65.03% 34.97% 30.06%
Schoolcraft Twp 2288 1652 3940 636 58.07% 41.93% 16.14%
Texas Twp 4509 2919 7428 1590 60.70% 39.30% 21.41%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 25463 21474 46937 3989 54.25% 45.75% 8.50%








Last State House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Oshtemo Twp 3712 2827 6539 885 56.77% 43.23% 13.53%
Portage 10077 5847 15924 4230 63.28% 36.72% 26.56%
Prairie Ronde Twp 661 274 935 387 70.70% 29.30% 41.39%
Schoolcraft Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Texas Twp 3903 1711 5614 2192 69.52% 30.48% 39.05%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 18353 10659 29012 7694 63.26% 36.74% 26.52%

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

This district wasn't safe before, but it is now. Losing Kalamazoo Township helps a lot.