Saturday, January 21, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 62 (HD-62)

State House - District 62
Current Rep - Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek)

Old District (62nd)
Kate Segal - 14,188
Steven Mobley - 11,719

Candidates:
GOP - Mark Behnke (R-Battle Creek)
Dem - Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek)

Update 5-26-2012 - I'm not sure we could have a better candidate for our side than Mark Behnke. That makes me irked even more at the house redistricting committee for this district. Mark Behnke is former Mayor of Battle Creek and former city commissioner there. Considering that's a democrat leaning area, he's shown strength there. If he isn't completely killed in Albion or strongly overperforms in Springfield, he has a shot.

This district is entirely in Calhoun County. I don't like this district at all. They all but conceded a district to make Bolger more safe than he already is. The old district leaned democrat, but was won by Mike Nofs three times. The new district is even more democrat.

The old district covered Albion, Athens, 90%+ of Battle Creek, a small part of Bedford Twp, Burlington Twp, Clarence Twp, Clarendon Twp, Convis Twp, Eckford Twp, Fredonia Twp, Homer Twp, Lee Twp, Leroy Twp, Marengo Twp, Sheridan Twp, Sprinfield, and Tekonska Twp. The new district drops most of this and covers all of Battle Creek, Springfield, Bedford Twp, Pennfield Twp, Convis Twp, Lee Twp, Clarence Twp, Sheridan Twp, and Albion. Keeping Albion, Springfield, and Battle Creek together is tough. Adding Bedford Twp makes it worse. Pennfield is the only good addition, but it's only good if Albion's removed. Did I mention that I don't like this district at all? John Kerry lost Calhoun County. John Kerry won this district.

Even the old district leaned slightly democrat. Mark Schauer held the old district before Mike Nofs took the open seat (and Schauer the State Senate seat). Kate Segal took the open seat after Nofs ran for State Senate when Schauer ran for congress and won, before losing the rematch. Segal survived 2010 as an incumbent and I believe has one term left.

I would have split Albion and Battle Creek if possible. That would make this much easier.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Albion 719 2584 3303 -1865 21.77% 78.23% -56.46%
Albion Twp 301 283 584 18 51.54% 48.46% 3.08%
Battle Creek 8916 13975 22891 -5059 38.95% 61.05% -22.10%
Bedford Twp 2128 2583 4711 -455 45.17% 54.83% -9.66%
Clarence Twp 574 439 1013 135 56.66% 43.34% 13.33%
Convis Twp 439 357 796 82 55.15% 44.85% 10.30%
Lee Twp 300 220 520 80 57.69% 42.31% 15.38%
Pennfield Twp 2405 2218 4623 187 52.02% 47.98% 4.04%
Sheridan Twp 412 390 802 22 51.37% 48.63% 2.74%
Springfield 689 1132 1821 -443 37.84% 62.16% -24.33%



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Total 16883 24181 41064 -7298 41.11% 58.89% -17.77%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Albion 896 2174 3070 -1278 29.19% 70.81% -41.63%
Albion Twp 336 265 601 71 55.91% 44.09% 11.81%
Battle Creek 10314 11583 21897 -1269 47.10% 52.90% -5.80%
Bedford Twp 2262 2264 4526 -2 49.98% 50.02% -0.04%
Clarence Twp 640 376 1016 264 62.99% 37.01% 25.98%
Convis Twp 500 355 855 145 58.48% 41.52% 16.96%
Lee Twp 339 214 553 125 61.30% 38.70% 22.60%
Pennfield Twp 2680 1969 4649 711 57.65% 42.35% 15.29%
Sheridan Twp 428 394 822 34 52.07% 47.93% 4.14%
Springfield 877 1005 1882 -128 46.60% 53.40% -6.80%



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Total 19272 20599 39871 -1327 48.34% 51.66% -3.33%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Albion 463 1623 2086 -1160 22.20% 77.80% -55.61%
Albion Twp 197 226 423 -29 46.57% 53.43% -6.86%
Battle Creek 5633 8174 13807 -2541 40.80% 59.20% -18.40%
Bedford Twp 18 10 28 8 64.29% 35.71% 28.57%
Clarence Twp 424 306 730 118 58.08% 41.92% 16.16%
Convis Twp 302 239 541 63 55.82% 44.18% 11.65%
Lee Twp 223 123 346 100 64.45% 35.55% 28.90%
Pennfield Twp

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Sheridan Twp 269 283 552 -14 48.73% 51.27% -2.54%
Springfield 399 563 962 -164 41.48% 58.52% -17.05%



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Total 7928 11547 19475 -3619 40.71% 59.29% -18.58%

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

I agree that this was a badly drawn seat. It was done this way to make Speaker Bolger safe for his one remaining term, even though he already has a safe seat. We gave up any chance at a winnable seat.