Saturday, January 28, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 67 (HD-67)

State House - District 67
Current Rep - Barb Byrum (D-Onondaga Twp) - Termed out

Candidates:
GOP - Jeff Osterle (R-Mason)
Dem - Tom Cochrane (D-Mason),

Update 5-26-2012 - This is going to be a big battle. It's been "good enough to lose" for the GOP who wanted a shot at this fair fight district. We thought we had it in 2002, but Dianne Byrum jumped in. Byrum runs well in the rural areas. Barb Byrum, her daughter, replaced her. This year there's no Byrum running. Jeff Osterle gave a good go at this seat in 2010. He wants another shot at it, but has to get past Ashley Kring first. Three dems are running.

Update 8-30-2012 - Osterle gets another chance. Tom Cochrane's the candidate for the dems. 

Old District (67th)
Barb Byrum - 17,823
Jeff Osterle - 15,962

This district was possibly the most frustrating district for the GOP in the state. It was created as a close to 50/50 district to give the GOP as shot. We thought we had it in 2002. Then Dianne Byrum who runs well in rural areas, dropped from state senate to state rep. Barb, her daughter, took her place. There's small subtle changes to this district.

It covers all of Southern Ingham County. It drops Locke Township to the 69th district. More importantly, it takes a bit of South Central Lansing and drops Southwest Lansing, which is what made the difference for Byrum last election. Byrum took Lansing by 3100 votes, and SW Lansing is more heavily minority.

This was a 56% Obama district according to Dave's Redistricting app. I believe the old district went for Bush once and Gore. It was extremely close.

The GOP has a shot here in 08, but even without a Byrum running, it won't be easy. South Lansing is extremely democrat and will be a base for the dems. It doesn't have all of it, but still has enough to cause problems. Delhi Township, better known as Holt, isn't easy either, nor is Mason or Leslie. Those areas are keys and must wins to have a good shot at this. They are swing areas. Osterle split those areas against Byrum.

With the state house expected to be a big battleground, this district will be one of the most contested seats, especially as an open seat. It's improved some, but still won't be easy. I won't be surprised if either side wins it.

2 comments:

Kevin said...

Who's running for this seat on the Republican side?

ashley said...

Hi Kevin, my name is Ashley Kring and I am one of the republican candidates for this seat. My facebook page is https://www.facebook.com/AshleyKringForStateRepresentative2012 if you'd like to know more. I'd really appreciate your vote!