Sunday, February 19, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 78 (HD-78)

State House - District 78
Current Rep - Sharon Tyler (R - Niles) - Not running for re-election.

GOP - Dave Pagel (R-Berrien Springs)
DEM - Jack Arbanas (D-Buchanan),

Update 5-27-2012 - Tyler's running for Berrien County Clerk instead. With the proximity to Chicago and South Bend, I'm a little worried about the district this year. There's primaries on both sides, which is good.

Update - Dave Pagel and Jack Arbanas won their primaries for the open seat.

Old District (78th)
Sharon Tyler - 15,218
Cindy Ellis - 8010

This district on paper should lean Republican, but the old district has given us some close calls. In 2008, Tyler won by 1600 votes. In 2006, Neal Nitz won by 900. 2004 was better (6000) as was 2002 (3100). This is a district that can't be taken for granted. It is what I call a prototypical "caught looking" district. There isn't a lot of major strongholds here for the GOP. There are some small strong areas, and a couple of lean dem areas, but there's no Benton Harbor here, nor Lincoln Township. While the GOP has historically won this district, it's not a gimme in a bad year as shown by the 06/08 numbers.

The old district covered in Berrien County Baroda, Berrien, Bertrand, Buchanan, Chikaming, Galien, New Buffalo, Oronoko, Pipestone, Three Oaks, and Weesaw Townships as well as the cities of Buchanan, Niles, and New Buffalo. It also covered in Cass County the City of  Dowagiac, Howard, Silver Creek, and Wayne Townships.

The new district drops Dowagiac and Wayne Township and picks up Milton and Ontwa Townships in Cass County. It picks up Sodus Township in Berrien County. The rest of this stays the same.  That makes it slightly safer with Dowagiac's dem leanings, but I'll consider this district lean GOP and not safe. In addition, keep in mind that the influence here is Chicago and South Bend, not Grand Rapids or Detroit. Obama is from Chicago, and did extremely well within a 90 minute radius of the city, including Berrien County. Part of that was Benton Harbor, but he did well in both Berrien County districts. We'll need to be prepared for trouble here, especially this year. There's no excuse to be caught looking when your opponent catches fire and causes an upset victory.



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Berrien County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Baroda Twp 851 614 1465 237 58.09% 41.91% 16.18%
Berrien Twp 1398 903 2301 495 60.76% 39.24% 21.51%
Bertrand Twp 776 642 1418 134 54.72% 45.28% 9.45%
Buchanan  792 1140 1932 -348 40.99% 59.01% -18.01%
Buchanan Twp 895 794 1689 101 52.99% 47.01% 5.98%
Chikaming Twp 907 950 1857 -43 48.84% 51.16% -2.32%
Galien Twp 312 381 693 -69 45.02% 54.98% -9.96%
New Buffalo 390 504 894 -114 43.62% 56.38% -12.75%
New Buffalo Twp 591 739 1330 -148 44.44% 55.56% -11.13%
Niles 1712 2976 4688 -1264 36.52% 63.48% -26.96%
Niles Twp 2906 3301 6207 -395 46.82% 53.18% -6.36%
Oronoko Twp 1794 1858 3652 -64 49.12% 50.88% -1.75%
Pipestone Twp 662 395 1057 267 62.63% 37.37% 25.26%
Sodus Twp 559 411 970 148 57.63% 42.37% 15.26%
Three Oaks Twp 627 770 1397 -143 44.88% 55.12% -10.24%
Weesaw Twp 540 454 994 86 54.33% 45.67% 8.65%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cass County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Howard Twp 1363 1590 2953 -227 46.16% 53.84% -7.69%
Milton Twp 895 661 1556 234 57.52% 42.48% 15.04%
Ontwa Twp 1237 1241 2478 -4 49.92% 50.08% -0.16%
Silver Creek Twp 840 749 1589 91 52.86% 47.14% 5.73%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 20047 21073 41120 -1026 48.75% 51.25% -2.50%

















Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Berrien County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Baroda Twp 969 474 1443 495 67.15% 32.85% 34.30%
Berrien Twp 1552 708 2260 844 68.67% 31.33% 37.35%
Bertrand Twp 799 541 1340 258 59.63% 40.37% 19.25%
Buchanan  1005 958 1963 47 51.20% 48.80% 2.39%
Buchanan Twp 1014 741 1755 273 57.78% 42.22% 15.56%
Chikaming Twp 1124 842 1966 282 57.17% 42.83% 14.34%
Galien Twp 376 334 710 42 52.96% 47.04% 5.92%
New Buffalo 474 451 925 23 51.24% 48.76% 2.49%
New Buffalo Twp 624 675 1299 -51 48.04% 51.96% -3.93%
Niles 2145 2426 4571 -281 46.93% 53.07% -6.15%
Niles Twp 3210 2705 5915 505 54.27% 45.73% 8.54%
Oronoko Twp 2057 1310 3367 747 61.09% 38.91% 22.19%
Pipestone Twp 724 330 1054 394 68.69% 31.31% 37.38%
Sodus Twp 566 344 910 222 62.20% 37.80% 24.40%
Three Oaks Twp 826 583 1409 243 58.62% 41.38% 17.25%
Weesaw Twp 627 369 996 258 62.95% 37.05% 25.90%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cass County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Howard Twp 1599 1327 2926 272 54.65% 45.35% 9.30%
Milton Twp 921 523 1444 398 63.78% 36.22% 27.56%
Ontwa Twp 1730 921 2651 809 65.26% 34.74% 30.52%
Silver Creek Twp 963 639 1602 324 60.11% 39.89% 20.22%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 23305 17201 40506 6104 57.53% 42.47% 15.07%








Last St House GOP  DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Berrien County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Baroda Twp 705 242 947 463 74.45% 25.55% 48.89%
Berrien Twp 1094 341 1435 753 76.24% 23.76% 52.47%
Bertrand Twp 689 218 907 471 75.96% 24.04% 51.93%
Buchanan  655 435 1090 220 60.09% 39.91% 20.18%
Buchanan Twp 786 323 1109 463 70.87% 29.13% 41.75%
Chikaming Twp 736 574 1310 162 56.18% 43.82% 12.37%
Galien Twp 249 145 394 104 63.20% 36.80% 26.40%
New Buffalo 300 271 571 29 52.54% 47.46% 5.08%
New Buffalo Twp 464 354 818 110 56.72% 43.28% 13.45%
Niles 1402 1060 2462 342 56.95% 43.05% 13.89%
Niles Twp 2405 1202 3607 1203 66.68% 33.32% 33.35%
Oronoko Twp 1392 631 2023 761 68.81% 31.19% 37.62%
Pipestone Twp 554 163 717 391 77.27% 22.73% 54.53%
Sodus Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Three Oaks Twp 466 297 763 169 61.07% 38.93% 22.15%
Weesaw Twp 432 193 625 239 69.12% 30.88% 38.24%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Cass County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Howard Twp 1158 549 1707 609 67.84% 32.16% 35.68%
Milton Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ontwa Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Silver Creek Twp 742 262 1004 480 73.90% 26.10% 47.81%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 14229 7260 21489 6969 66.22% 33.78% 32.43%

2 comments:

Conservative First said...

Tyler is not running for reelection. She will run for Berrien County Clerk.

http://www.dowagiacnews.com/2011/11/11/tyler-seeks-berrien-clerk/

Republican Michigander said...

That makes this one a little tougher, although losing Dowagiac helps.