Sunday, March 11, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 81 (HD-81)

State House - District 81
Current Rep - Jud Gilbert (R-Algonac) - Termed out

Candidates:
GOP - Dan Lauwers (R-Brockway)
DEM - Patrick Phelan (D-Marine City),

Update 5-27-2012 - Massive primaries here. This could impact the general depending on how many hard feelings are out there in mid-August.

Update 8-30-2012 - Patrick Phelan and Dan Lauwers won their primaries. It wasn't that close, nobody got a majority on the GOP side.

Old District (81st)
Jud Gilbert - 19,882
Carol Morrissette - 8,590

This district is a C shaped district that covers most of St Clair County. It doesn't change that much, outside of dropping Riley, Kenockee, and Casco Townships to the 32nd district. It doesn't add any new areas.

St Clair County has a reputation as a Republican County and it is treading our way some (outside 2008 disaster), but it's not a safe republican county. Democrats have won it in the past. Clinton and Obama took it, as did David Bonior when he was in congress. Gore barely lost it. A similar district back in the 1990's was very competitive when it had the city of Port Huron and Kimball Township. The dems almost took it in 1998 and 2000, and had districts that included parts of St Clair county in the last decade and in the 1990's. The current map (along with Riley/Casco/Kenockee Twp) was relative close in 2004.

Jud Gilbert, a former rep and state senator, came back to the house in 2010. I think he might be termed out, but I'm not sure about that. I'd call this district almost safe if it's open. There's dem strength in Marysville, Port Huron Twp, and Marine City, but most of the district tils republican. In addition, Kimball Twp and the city of Port Huron are in other districts. McCain won the district. It would take a disaster to lose this district, but there was a disaster that cost us a neighboring district in 2004 (and 06/08).



McCain Obama Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Algonac 990 1011 2001 -21 49.48% 50.52% -1.05%
Berlin Twp 957 627 1584 330 60.42% 39.58% 20.83%
Brockway Twp 543 463 1006 80 53.98% 46.02% 7.95%
China Twp 1076 932 2008 144 53.59% 46.41% 7.17%
Clay Twp 2865 2235 5100 630 56.18% 43.82% 12.35%
Clyde Twp 1622 1371 2993 251 54.19% 45.81% 8.39%
Cottrellville Twp 946 829 1775 117 53.30% 46.70% 6.59%
East China Twp 1064 1050 2114 14 50.33% 49.67% 0.66%
Emmett Twp 667 616 1283 51 51.99% 48.01% 3.98%
Grant Twp 583 448 1031 135 56.55% 43.45% 13.09%
Greenwood Twp 389 343 732 46 53.14% 46.86% 6.28%
Lynn Twp 331 256 587 75 56.39% 43.61% 12.78%
Marine City 840 1155 1995 -315 42.11% 57.89% -15.79%
Marysville 2536 2980 5516 -444 45.98% 54.02% -8.05%
Memphis 93 77 170 16 54.71% 45.29% 9.41%
Mussey Twp 881 921 1802 -40 48.89% 51.11% -2.22%
Port Huron Twp 2070 2604 4674 -534 44.29% 55.71% -11.42%
St Clair       1574 1476 3050 98 51.61% 48.39% 3.21%
St Clair Twp 2151 1611 3762 540 57.18% 42.82% 14.35%
Yale 376 469 845 -93 44.50% 55.50% -11.01%
Total 22554 21474 44028 1080 51.23% 48.77% 2.45%









Bush Kerry Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Algonac 1060 1005 2065 55 51.33% 48.67% 2.66%
Berlin Twp 1074 566 1640 508 65.49% 34.51% 30.98%
Brockway Twp 597 351 948 246 62.97% 37.03% 25.95%
China Twp 1124 809 1933 315 58.15% 41.85% 16.30%
Clay Twp 3134 2137 5271 997 59.46% 40.54% 18.91%
Clyde Twp 1625 1178 2803 447 57.97% 42.03% 15.95%
Cottrellville Twp 994 721 1715 273 57.96% 42.04% 15.92%
East China Twp 1163 865 2028 298 57.35% 42.65% 14.69%
Emmett Twp 689 527 1216 162 56.66% 43.34% 13.32%
Grant Twp 578 365 943 213 61.29% 38.71% 22.59%
Greenwood Twp 392 341 733 51 53.48% 46.52% 6.96%
Lynn Twp 343 237 580 106 59.14% 40.86% 18.28%
Marine City 992 1047 2039 -55 48.65% 51.35% -2.70%
Marysville 3017 2652 5669 365 53.22% 46.78% 6.44%
Memphis 104 64 168 40 61.90% 38.10% 23.81%
Mussey Twp 1036 750 1786 286 58.01% 41.99% 16.01%
Port Huron Twp 2198 2342 4540 -144 48.41% 51.59% -3.17%
St Clair       1739 1379 3118 360 55.77% 44.23% 11.55%
St Clair Twp 2288 1444 3732 844 61.31% 38.69% 22.62%
Yale 476 387 863 89 55.16% 44.84% 10.31%
Total 24623 19167 43790 5456 56.23% 43.77% 12.46%








Last St House GOP DEM Total Diff GOP DEM Diff
Algonac 853 327 1180 526 72.29% 27.71% 44.58%
Berlin Twp 756 222 978 534 77.30% 22.70% 54.60%
Brockway Twp 462 171 633 291 72.99% 27.01% 45.97%
China Twp 716 309 1025 407 69.85% 30.15% 39.71%
Clay Twp 2458 881 3339 1577 73.61% 26.39% 47.23%
Clyde Twp 1298 500 1798 798 72.19% 27.81% 44.38%
Cottrellville Twp 765 305 1070 460 71.50% 28.50% 42.99%
East China Twp 867 347 1214 520 71.42% 28.58% 42.83%
Emmett Twp 513 238 751 275 68.31% 31.69% 36.62%
Grant Twp 464 161 625 303 74.24% 25.76% 48.48%
Greenwood Twp 290 124 414 166 70.05% 29.95% 40.10%
Lynn Twp 252 110 362 142 69.61% 30.39% 39.23%
Marine City 373 206 579 167 64.42% 35.58% 28.84%
Marysville 2024 1113 3137 911 64.52% 35.48% 29.04%
Memphis 66 34 100 32 66.00% 34.00% 32.00%
Mussey Twp 694 328 1022 366 67.91% 32.09% 35.81%
Port Huron Twp 1690 939 2629 751 64.28% 35.72% 28.57%
St Clair       1103 494 1597 609 69.07% 30.93% 38.13%
St Clair Twp 1446 593 2039 853 70.92% 29.08% 41.83%
Yale 317 126 443 191 71.56% 28.44% 43.12%
Total 17407 7528 24935 9879 69.81% 30.19% 39.62%

1 comment:

Conservative First said...

According to Ballotpedia, Gilbert has served three terms and so would be term-limited.

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Judson_Gilbert