Current Rep - Ray Franz (R - Onekama Twp)
GOP - Ray Franz (R-Onekama Twp)
Dem - Allen O'Shea (D-Copemish)
Update 5-27-2012 - Interesting matchup here. Scripps doesn't want a rematch, which makes things easier. Bailey was originally going to run against Benishek in CD-01, but didn't want to face McDowell in a primary, which is a smart move since he's a troll below the bridge. However, there's still a big geography matchup here. Bailey is from Leelanau County, and O'Shea from Manistee County. Fallout from that could help Franz. I'd still rate this a tossup. Nothing Up North comes easy.
Update 8-30-2012 - O'Shea won the primary narrowly. He lost Benzie and Leelanau counties to Bailey, but won Mason county and won big in Manistee County.
Old District (101st)
Ray Franz -19,386
Dan Scripps- 18,495
This district remains unchanged for the 2nd straight redistricting cycle and is a swing district that flipped twice in 08 and 2010. The district covers the Lake Michigan Coastline. Manistee, Mason, Benzie, and Leelanau Counties. All the counties can be competitive, with Manistee County the most democrat leaning with some union leanings. There's a bit of a Chicago influence on the coast itself here, particularly Ludington and Leelanau County. Leelanau County has been treading democrat lately as well, I suspect from Ann Arbor/Chicago retirees and some overlap from Traverse City yuppies. It's no longer really a GOP base county, although certainly winnable.
From 2002 to 2008, the district was held by David Palsrok. Dan Scripps won the open seat flipping it to the dems. Ray Franz won a rematch with Scripps in 2010.In 2000, David Mead won his third term by 6000 votes, but lost Mason County, normally the most Republican county in the district. Mason County went for Bush that same year. In 2002, Palsrok won the open seat by 3000, but lost Mason County. Palsrok swept the district in 2004, winning by 5500. 2006 was a close call against Dan Scripps. Palsrok won by 1600, losing Leelanau County, and barely winning Manistee and Benzie Counties. Mason was the big county for Palsrok. Scripps absolutely demolished Ray Franz in 2008, but lost to him in 2010 once Scripps got himself a voting record.
Presidential wise, this district went for Bush twice and Obama once. Manistee County voted for Gore, Bush, and Obama. The rest of them went for Bush twice and Obama. I don't know how this one is going to go in 2012. I'm adding the 2008 numbers for St House here as well as 2008 and 2010 were a matchup with the same people. Ray Franz and Dan Scripps.
This is going to be a district to watch in 2012. Nothing up North comes easy, although much of this district has very different types of up north voters than the ones in Sheltrown's old district.
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