Thursday, April 26, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 103 (HD-103)

State House - District 103
Current Rep - Bruce Rendon (R - Lake City)

Candidates:
GOP - Bruce Rendon (R-Lake City)
Dem - Lon Johnson (D-Grayling)

Update - 5-27-2012 - Did Rendon tick off people in Ogemaw County? Three challengers are from there, along with Grayling's Lon Johnson was placed in the new district from redistricting. I'm still calling this a tossup due to tradition, although I don't see that Sheltrown name this time.

Update 8-30-2012 - Rendon and Johnson won their primaries easily. 

Old District (103rd)
Bruce Rendon - 19,930
Van Sheltrown - 11,958
 
I consider an 8000 vote spread against a Sheltrown an aberration. I know Van isn't Joel or Dale, but the dems were massacred in districts like the old 103rd  in 2010. Bigtime. Redistricting changed this district a bit making it more friendly to Republicans, although I can't call it safe. It also may have conceded the 106th which I think is an absolutely awfully drawn district. I'd rather have had a district similar to the old 103rd which is tough but winnable since Joel and Dale Sheltrown are termed out. Joel and Dale dominated the district. Van was blasted. Either he didn't sell, or it was just a bad year. I think Joel would have survived a 2010.

Bruce Rendon ran in 2004 for the open seat and lost to Joel Sheltrown despite Bush winning the district by a good margin. There's no shame in that. The old district covered Iosco, Roscommon, Ogemaw, and Missaukee Counties. Iosco, Roscommon, and Ogemaw are swing counties with slight "Barcia democrat" leanings. Missaukee County is the 2nd most Republican county in the state by percentage, except that it voted for Joel Sheltrown twice. The new district dropped Iosco county and replaced it with Crawford and Kalkaska counties which lean Republican but occasionally support Stupak type democrats. Kalkaska is a very rural area between Acme/Traverse City and Grayling. Crawford County, also very rural, is Grayling and Frederic and known for Camp Grayling and fishing/canoeing with the Au Sable River. The general area district (Ogemaw County area, not Crawford) was held by democrats for at least 18 years before Rendon finally won it. That's despite McCain winning the old district. Obama's numbers aren't the ceiling here. Barcia and Stupak run much better.

I included the 2004 numbers which was Rendon vs Joel Sheltrown. If the dems have another candidate on that level, they have a shot at this one in 2012. As such, I'm still considering this a swing district despite Kalkaska and Crawford Counties being better for downticket Republicans. There's a good dem base in Skidway Lake and St Helen, along with many other swing voters throughout the whole district.

 I'm keeping a close eye on this one.



McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Crawford County 3561 3441 7002 120 50.86% 49.14% 1.71%
Kalkaska County 4527 3780 8307 747 54.50% 45.50% 8.99%
Missaukee County 4469 2898 7367 1571 60.66% 39.34% 21.32%
Ogemaw County 5133 5391 10524 -258 48.77% 51.23% -2.45%
Roscommon County 6727 7082 13809 -355 48.71% 51.29% -2.57%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 24417 22592 47009 1825 51.94% 48.06% 3.88%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Crawford County 4017 3126 7143 891 56.24% 43.76% 12.47%
Kalkaska County 5084 3189 8273 1895 61.45% 38.55% 22.91%
Missaukee County 5055 2319 7374 2736 68.55% 31.45% 37.10%
Ogemaw County 5454 5215 10669 239 51.12% 48.88% 2.24%
Roscommon County 7364 6810 14174 554 51.95% 48.05% 3.91%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 26974 20659 47633 6315 56.63% 43.37% 13.26%








Last St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Crawford County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Kalkaska County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Missaukee County 4006 1198 5204 2808 76.98% 23.02% 53.96%
Ogemaw County 4348 3112 7460 1236 58.28% 41.72% 16.57%
Roscommon County 6060 3662 9722 2398 62.33% 37.67% 24.67%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 14414 7972 22386 6442 64.39% 35.61% 28.78%








2004 St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Crawford County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Kalkaska County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Missaukee County 4772 2468 7240 2304 65.91% 34.09% 31.82%
Ogemaw County 3613 6908 10521 -3295 34.34% 65.66% -31.32%
Roscommon County 6026 7873 13899 -1847 43.36% 56.64% -13.29%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 14411 17249 31660 -2838 45.52% 54.48% -8.96%

2 comments:

Cheryll R said...

I thought Lon Johnson was from Kalkaska. Hmmm

Republican Michigander said...

Grayling is next door to Kalkaska. He used a Grayling PO Box. I went with the campaign HQ office given with filings.

Easy access to I-75. (I know the area well).