Friday, April 27, 2012

The Republican Party - Grass Roots vs Establishment? It's more complicated than that.

You don't have to look far to know that there's a rift in the Republican Party right now. A lot, although not all, of the grass roots do not like Mitt Romney. A lot, although not all, of the establishment in the party support Romney. There's still hard feelings, and if SCOTUS and Eric Holder weren't going to be big issues, I'd be voting Libertarian for President this year. I'll probably hold my nose and take one for the team, but I'm going to be concentrating my actual campaign efforts on downticket and non partisan races this year. Our Senate nominee, 8th District stuff, judges, and county.

With the Romney campaign and their allies on Fox News getting their way, a lot of people are railing against "the establishment." There's actually multiple establishments. I'll admit that I sometimes use the term the establishment, but there is always one thing we need to keep in mind when it comes to actual GOP establishments. If there is a bad GOP establishment, in most cases who is to blame? Republican VOTERS. The establishment is there because voters allow it to be there. Most GOP establishment with the exception of caucus is either directly or indirectly elected.

There's nothing we can do about the decisions made by caucus except to give our reps an earful. Caucus is NRSC, NRCC, and their state equivalents. The only thing we can do there is not donate. I've long said that NRSC especially shouldn't receive a dime, especially after the same clowns who run it were reappointed. I generally limit my donations to individual candidates or to accounts which I have control or at least veto power either officially, or unofficially. 

Anyone who is complaining about the establishment needs to step up to the plate or they need to shut up. Marco Rubio said it best in 2010 when the establishment pushed RINO Charlie Crist. “If you are unhappy with the Republican establishment, then let’s get a new establishment.”  Some think because the Tea Party was a big deal in 2010 that they automatically get what they want. It doesn't work that way. The Republican Party has a 160 year history. 3 years is a footnote in that history. 2 years is one election cycle. I've seen a lot of leaders come and go, and I've been involved in party politics as long as I've been a republican. 11 years active. State Party has had five chairs in that short amount of time. Livingston County GOP has had six chairs in that time. 8th District has had at least four that I know of.

This is how things work.

May - Filing deadline. Precinct Delegate candidates file to run for their position.

August - Primary elections. Precinct Delegate candidates run in the primary election. They are often, but not always unopposed.

What do precinct delegates do? A lot of people will say different things about a precinct delegate's responsibilities, but in reality there are two jobs for precinct delegates.

1. Pick the delegates to state conventions at your county conventions. 

2. After November, select your county executive committee, which picks its officers. 

That's it. There's a lot of other things precinct delegates SHOULD be doing, but those are the main responsibilities.

Different things happen at different state conventions. The next one elects RNC Committeeman/Committewoman (full convention) for and delegates (by district) for the National Convention that formally nominates Romney. I was not a Romney supporter in the primary, and he won the 8th district, so there's no chance I'd win even if I was running for that.

A future convention after August and before November nominates candidates for Supreme Court and the university trustees.

After the November election, we have county conventions for party leadership, as then a state convention for state party and district leadership.

The bottom is that here in Michigan, if we like, or dislike (or in some cases both) what state party, district party, or county party is doing, something can be done about it. If you don't like what I'm doing on 8th district and you're a district resident, you can and try and toss me off the committee. If you like what I'm doing, you can keep me on there. I'm biased, but I'm supporting incumbents for the 8th District if they choose to run again. I think we've come a long ways from what we started before the current leadership. We still have a ways to go to get to my standards, but it's moving in the right direction.

It takes organization, campaign ability, patience, and effort to get positions on committees and to do a good job on those committees. Those that don't have that and like to just sit around and bitch shouldn't be in charge or on committees anyway.

Folks that I support for delegates or committee positions are those who do the work, first and foremost. I don't vote based on your consultant ties, or even your presidential decision. While ideology is an issue to some degree, competence is a bigger one with me. Those who show up at meetings and more importantly do things are those who get my support. I actively vote against Johnny come lately types who because they have a title of some sort, think we should bow down to them because they think they are important.

The bottom line though is that most of the "establishment" is picked, indirectly, by Michigan Republican Primary voters. If you want to make changes to the party,  it starts in May with filings, and  August with elections. It's put up or shut up time for critics. 

Thursday, April 26, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 106 (HD-106)

State House - District 106
Current Rep - Peter Petallia (R - Presque Isle)

Candidates:
GOP - Peter Petallia - (R-Presque Isle)
Dem - Kenneth Hubbard (D-Alpena)

Update 8-30-2012 - Kenneth Hubbard won the dem primary.

Old District (106th)
Peter Petallia - 18,096
Casey Viegelahn - 11,744


This district was held by the dems for 18 years until the 2010 election. It was close on several occasions, but Alpena leans democrat, more so locally than at the top of the ticket. I think Peter Petallia was forced to take one for the team here. I think this may be our 2nd toughest defense. I don't like what they did to this district at all. This is a toss-up district I think in 2012. I think the dems will likely get it back when Petallia is termed out if he hangs on for two more terms. I think McCain took the old district, but Obama took the new one. Dems are stronger downticket here than they are at the top of the ticket too, which makes it harder here.

The old district covered Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties. It picks up part of Cheboygan County (not bad), and Iosco County (Bad bad bad). It drops Crawford, Montmorency, and Oscoda Counties (worse). Presque Isle and Alpena have rather strong downticket democrat leanings. Iosco County does as well. Alcona leans to the right, as does most of Cheboygan County. Dropping the three leaning GOP counties eliminates just about any breathing room whatsoever. Petallia actually won Alpena County in 2010, although he lost Presque Isle County, albeit barely. Winning Alpena County is big, and if he does that again in 2012, he'll survive this district. Petallia ran in 08 against a strong former 2 term rep in Andy Neumann. I included that race as well.



McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Alcona County 3404 2896 6300 508 54.03% 45.97% 8.06%
Alpena County 7125 7705 14830 -580 48.04% 51.96% -3.91%
Iosco County 6583 7309 13892 -726 47.39% 52.61% -5.23%
Presque Isle County 3606 3722 7328 -116 49.21% 50.79% -1.58%
Cheboygan County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Aloha Twp 314 254 568 60 55.28% 44.72% 10.56%
Benton Twp 926 876 1802 50 51.39% 48.61% 2.77%
Burt Twp 298 198 496 100 60.08% 39.92% 20.16%
Ellis Twp 151 118 269 33 56.13% 43.87% 12.27%
Forest Twp 211 267 478 -56 44.14% 55.86% -11.72%
Grant Twp 236 287 523 -51 45.12% 54.88% -9.75%
Inverness Twp 598 661 1259 -63 47.50% 52.50% -5.00%
Mentor Twp 229 182 411 47 55.72% 44.28% 11.44%
Mullett Twp 447 327 774 120 57.75% 42.25% 15.50%
Nunda Twp 220 234 454 -14 48.46% 51.54% -3.08%
Walker Twp 57 73 130 -16 43.85% 56.15% -12.31%
Waverly Twp 115 125 240 -10 47.92% 52.08% -4.17%
Wilmot Twp 191 157 348 34 54.89% 45.11% 9.77%
Total 24711 25391 50102 -680 49.32% 50.68% -1.36%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Alcona County 3592 2871 6463 721 55.58% 44.42% 11.16%
Alpena County 7665 7407 15072 258 50.86% 49.14% 1.71%
Iosco County 7301 6557 13858 744 52.68% 47.32% 5.37%
Presque Isle County 3982 3432 7414 550 53.71% 46.29% 7.42%
Cheboygan County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Aloha Twp 328 224 552 104 59.42% 40.58% 18.84%
Benton Twp 986 747 1733 239 56.90% 43.10% 13.79%
Burt Twp 300 196 496 104 60.48% 39.52% 20.97%
Ellis Twp 170 122 292 48 58.22% 41.78% 16.44%
Forest Twp 236 289 525 -53 44.95% 55.05% -10.10%
Grant Twp 295 281 576 14 51.22% 48.78% 2.43%
Inverness Twp 638 534 1172 104 54.44% 45.56% 8.87%
Mentor Twp 224 191 415 33 53.98% 46.02% 7.95%
Mullett Twp 438 317 755 121 58.01% 41.99% 16.03%
Nunda Twp 254 207 461 47 55.10% 44.90% 10.20%
Walker Twp 62 57 119 5 52.10% 47.90% 4.20%
Waverly Twp 138 118 256 20 53.91% 46.09% 7.81%
Wilmot Twp 193 129 322 64 59.94% 40.06% 19.88%
Total 26802 23679 50481 3123 53.09% 46.91% 6.19%








Last St House GOP DEM Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Alcona County 2866 1438 4304 1428 66.59% 33.41% 33.18%
Alpena County 5563 4151 9714 1412 57.27% 42.73% 14.54%
Iosco County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Presque Isle County 2489 2494 4983 -5 49.95% 50.05% -0.10%
Cheboygan County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Aloha Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Benton Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Burt Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ellis Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Forest Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grant Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Inverness Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mentor Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mullett Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Nunda Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Walker Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waverly Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wilmot Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 10918 8083 19001 2835 57.46% 42.54% 14.92%








2008 St House GOP DEM Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Alcona County 3037 3046 6083 -9 49.93% 50.07% -0.15%
Alpena County 6824 7809 14633 -985 46.63% 53.37% -6.73%
Iosco County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Presque Isle County 2989 4196 7185 -1207 41.60% 58.40% -16.80%
Cheboygan County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Aloha Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Benton Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Burt Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ellis Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Forest Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Grant Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Inverness Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mentor Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mullett Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Nunda Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Walker Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Waverly Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Wilmot Twp

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 12850 15051 27901 -2201 46.06% 53.94% -7.89%

State House Redistricting - District 105 (HD-105)

State House - District 105
Current Rep - Greg MacMaster (R - Kewadin)

Candidate:
GOP - Greg MacMaster (R-Kewadin)
Dem - Willim Wieske (D-Gaylord)

Old District (105th)
Greg MacMaster - 25,907
Greg Dean - 10,702

This district was and still is probably the safest in North Michigan for the Republicans, and the 2nd safest overall besides the Marquette district. The old district covered Charlevoix, Otsego, Antrim, and part of Cheboygan County. It drops Cheboygan County and picks up Montmorency and Oscoda Counties. I think this is a very poor district, possibly helping concede the 106th.

Otsego and Antrim Counties are base counties and carry the day. The rest of the areas if aren't safe republican, strongly lean that way. The only exception is against someone like a Bart Stupak.



McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Antrim County 7506 6079 13585 1427 55.25% 44.75% 10.50%
Charlevoix County 7306 6817 14123 489 51.73% 48.27% 3.46%
Montmorency County 2841 2403 5244 438 54.18% 45.82% 8.35%
Oscoda County 2320 1887 4207 433 55.15% 44.85% 10.29%
Otsego County 6752 5634 12386 1118 54.51% 45.49% 9.03%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 26725 22820 49545 3905 53.94% 46.06% 7.88%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Antrim County 8379 5072 13451 3307 62.29% 37.71% 24.59%
Charlevoix County 8214 5729 13943 2485 58.91% 41.09% 17.82%
Montmorency County 3300 2196 5496 1104 60.04% 39.96% 20.09%
Oscoda County 2570 1792 4362 778 58.92% 41.08% 17.84%
Otsego County 7470 4674 12144 2796 61.51% 38.49% 23.02%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 29933 19463 49396 10470 60.60% 39.40% 21.20%








Last St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Antrim County 7060 3006 10066 4054 70.14% 29.86% 40.27%
Charlevoix County 7085 2862 9947 4223 71.23% 28.77% 42.46%
Montmorency County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Oscoda County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Otsego County 6067 2408 8475 3659 71.59% 28.41% 43.17%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 20212 8276 28488 11936 70.95% 29.05% 41.90%

State House Redistricting - District 104 (HD-104)

State House - District 104
Current Rep - Wayne Schmidt (R - Traverse City)

Candidates:
GOP - Wayne Schmidt  (R-Traverse City)
Dem - Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City)

Update 5-27-2012 - The leader and publisher of Right Michigan is challenging the incumbent. Jason Gillman is going after Wayne Schmidt. Gillman's also a county commissioner up there, so he's more than just an internet activist. This will be interesting to see.

Update - 8-30-2012  - Schmidt beat a spirited challenge from Jason Gillman. Coffa won the democrat primary.

Old District (104th)
Wayne Schmidt - 23,460
John Scrudato - 10,950


This district shrunk due to population growth in Grand Traverse County. It drops Kalkaska County to the 103rd. This district is for now safe republican, but keep an eye on the suburbs of Traverse City to see if it is still the case in ten years with the transplants. The city leans democrat, although not as much as it's reputation (Ann Arbor North it isn't). It's not impossible for the GOP to win the city. The suburbs are generally safe for the GOP. McCain won the district, and nobody downticket has had problems here recently.



Grand Traverse County GOP DEM Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
2008 Presidential 24716 23258 47974 1458 51.52% 48.48% 3.04%
2004 Presidential 27446 18256 45702 9190 60.05% 39.95% 20.11%
Last St House 19823 9493 29316 10330 67.62% 32.38% 35.24%

State House Redistricting - District 103 (HD-103)

State House - District 103
Current Rep - Bruce Rendon (R - Lake City)

Candidates:
GOP - Bruce Rendon (R-Lake City)
Dem - Lon Johnson (D-Grayling)

Update - 5-27-2012 - Did Rendon tick off people in Ogemaw County? Three challengers are from there, along with Grayling's Lon Johnson was placed in the new district from redistricting. I'm still calling this a tossup due to tradition, although I don't see that Sheltrown name this time.

Update 8-30-2012 - Rendon and Johnson won their primaries easily. 

Old District (103rd)
Bruce Rendon - 19,930
Van Sheltrown - 11,958
 
I consider an 8000 vote spread against a Sheltrown an aberration. I know Van isn't Joel or Dale, but the dems were massacred in districts like the old 103rd  in 2010. Bigtime. Redistricting changed this district a bit making it more friendly to Republicans, although I can't call it safe. It also may have conceded the 106th which I think is an absolutely awfully drawn district. I'd rather have had a district similar to the old 103rd which is tough but winnable since Joel and Dale Sheltrown are termed out. Joel and Dale dominated the district. Van was blasted. Either he didn't sell, or it was just a bad year. I think Joel would have survived a 2010.

Bruce Rendon ran in 2004 for the open seat and lost to Joel Sheltrown despite Bush winning the district by a good margin. There's no shame in that. The old district covered Iosco, Roscommon, Ogemaw, and Missaukee Counties. Iosco, Roscommon, and Ogemaw are swing counties with slight "Barcia democrat" leanings. Missaukee County is the 2nd most Republican county in the state by percentage, except that it voted for Joel Sheltrown twice. The new district dropped Iosco county and replaced it with Crawford and Kalkaska counties which lean Republican but occasionally support Stupak type democrats. Kalkaska is a very rural area between Acme/Traverse City and Grayling. Crawford County, also very rural, is Grayling and Frederic and known for Camp Grayling and fishing/canoeing with the Au Sable River. The general area district (Ogemaw County area, not Crawford) was held by democrats for at least 18 years before Rendon finally won it. That's despite McCain winning the old district. Obama's numbers aren't the ceiling here. Barcia and Stupak run much better.

I included the 2004 numbers which was Rendon vs Joel Sheltrown. If the dems have another candidate on that level, they have a shot at this one in 2012. As such, I'm still considering this a swing district despite Kalkaska and Crawford Counties being better for downticket Republicans. There's a good dem base in Skidway Lake and St Helen, along with many other swing voters throughout the whole district.

 I'm keeping a close eye on this one.



McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Crawford County 3561 3441 7002 120 50.86% 49.14% 1.71%
Kalkaska County 4527 3780 8307 747 54.50% 45.50% 8.99%
Missaukee County 4469 2898 7367 1571 60.66% 39.34% 21.32%
Ogemaw County 5133 5391 10524 -258 48.77% 51.23% -2.45%
Roscommon County 6727 7082 13809 -355 48.71% 51.29% -2.57%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 24417 22592 47009 1825 51.94% 48.06% 3.88%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Crawford County 4017 3126 7143 891 56.24% 43.76% 12.47%
Kalkaska County 5084 3189 8273 1895 61.45% 38.55% 22.91%
Missaukee County 5055 2319 7374 2736 68.55% 31.45% 37.10%
Ogemaw County 5454 5215 10669 239 51.12% 48.88% 2.24%
Roscommon County 7364 6810 14174 554 51.95% 48.05% 3.91%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 26974 20659 47633 6315 56.63% 43.37% 13.26%








Last St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Crawford County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Kalkaska County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Missaukee County 4006 1198 5204 2808 76.98% 23.02% 53.96%
Ogemaw County 4348 3112 7460 1236 58.28% 41.72% 16.57%
Roscommon County 6060 3662 9722 2398 62.33% 37.67% 24.67%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 14414 7972 22386 6442 64.39% 35.61% 28.78%








2004 St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Crawford County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Kalkaska County

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Missaukee County 4772 2468 7240 2304 65.91% 34.09% 31.82%
Ogemaw County 3613 6908 10521 -3295 34.34% 65.66% -31.32%
Roscommon County 6026 7873 13899 -1847 43.36% 56.64% -13.29%



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!



0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 14411 17249 31660 -2838 45.52% 54.48% -8.96%

State House Redistricting - District 102 (HD-102)

State House - District 102
Current Rep - Phil Potvin (R - Cadillac)

Candidates:
GOP - Phil Potvin (R-Cadillac)
Dem - Brendan Maturen (D-Stanwood)

Old District (102nd)
Phil Potvin - 18,825
Jodi Estes Gabert - 8,472

This district shrunk slightly and split Osceola County, part of which went to the 97th district. This is one of the safest districts in North Michigan. Wexford County is a base GOP county, and Mecosta leans our way. Phil Potvin took the open seat in 2010 without much trouble in the general election. Even McCain won the district, and unlike the neighboring 103rd district, there hasn't been a history of  Barcia type democrats winning here.

Update 8-30-2012 - Maturen won the primary.


McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Mecosta County 9238 9101 18339 137 50.37% 49.63% 0.75%
Wexford County 8044 7379 15423 665 52.16% 47.84% 4.31%
Osceola County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Burdell Twp 392 291 683 101 57.39% 42.61% 14.79%
Cedar Twp 148 114 262 34 56.49% 43.51% 12.98%
Hartwick Twp 182 129 311 53 58.52% 41.48% 17.04%
Leroy Twp 331 240 571 91 57.97% 42.03% 15.94%
Lincoln Twp 387 222 609 165 63.55% 36.45% 27.09%
Reed City 481 477 958 4 50.21% 49.79% 0.42%
Richmond Twp 528 355 883 173 59.80% 40.20% 19.59%
Rose Lake Twp 370 290 660 80 56.06% 43.94% 12.12%
Total 20101 18598 38699 1503 51.94% 48.06% 3.88%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Mecosta County 9710 7730 17440 1980 55.68% 44.32% 11.35%
Wexford County 8966 6034 15000 2932 59.77% 40.23% 19.55%
Osceola County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Burdell Twp 428 232 660 196 64.85% 35.15% 29.70%
Cedar Twp 142 92 234 50 60.68% 39.32% 21.37%
Hartwick Twp 196 122 318 74 61.64% 38.36% 23.27%
Leroy Twp 384 229 613 155 62.64% 37.36% 25.29%
Lincoln Twp 387 297 684 90 56.58% 43.42% 13.16%
Reed City 584 501 1085 83 53.82% 46.18% 7.65%
Richmond Twp 598 350 948 248 63.08% 36.92% 26.16%
Rose Lake Twp 421 248 669 173 62.93% 37.07% 25.86%
Total 21816 15835 37651 5981 57.94% 42.06% 15.89%








Last St House GOP DEM Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Mecosta County 7205 3794 10999 3411 65.51% 34.49% 31.01%
Wexford County 6925 2646 9571 4279 72.35% 27.65% 44.71%
Osceola County:

0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Burdell Twp 329 104 433 225 75.98% 24.02% 51.96%
Cedar Twp 113 42 155 71 72.90% 27.10% 45.81%
Hartwick Twp 146 55 201 91 72.64% 27.36% 45.27%
Leroy Twp 249 97 346 152 71.97% 28.03% 43.93%
Lincoln Twp 295 116 411 179 71.78% 28.22% 43.55%
Reed City 349 227 576 122 60.59% 39.41% 21.18%
Richmond Twp 397 206 603 191 65.84% 34.16% 31.67%
Rose Lake Twp 270 94 364 176 74.18% 25.82% 48.35%
Total 16278 7381 23659 8897 68.80% 31.20% 37.61%

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 101 (HD-101)

State House - District 101
Current Rep - Ray Franz (R - Onekama Twp)

Candidates:
GOP - Ray Franz (R-Onekama Twp)
Dem -  Allen O'Shea (D-Copemish)

Update 5-27-2012 - Interesting matchup here. Scripps doesn't want a rematch, which makes things easier. Bailey was originally going to run against Benishek in CD-01, but didn't want to face McDowell in a primary, which is a smart move since he's a troll below the bridge. However, there's still a big geography matchup here. Bailey is from Leelanau County, and O'Shea from Manistee County. Fallout from that could help Franz. I'd still rate this a tossup. Nothing Up North comes easy.

Update 8-30-2012 - O'Shea won the primary narrowly. He lost Benzie and Leelanau counties to Bailey, but won Mason county and won big in Manistee County. 

Old District (101st)
Ray Franz -19,386
Dan Scripps- 18,495


This district remains unchanged for the 2nd straight redistricting cycle and is a swing district that flipped twice in 08 and 2010. The district covers the Lake Michigan Coastline. Manistee, Mason, Benzie, and Leelanau Counties. All the counties can be competitive, with Manistee County the most democrat leaning with some union leanings. There's a bit of a Chicago influence on the coast itself here, particularly Ludington and Leelanau County. Leelanau County has been treading democrat lately as well, I suspect from Ann Arbor/Chicago retirees and some overlap from Traverse City yuppies. It's no longer really a GOP base county, although certainly winnable.



From 2002 to 2008, the district was held by David Palsrok. Dan Scripps won the open seat flipping it to the dems. Ray Franz won a rematch with Scripps in 2010.In 2000, David Mead won his third term by 6000 votes, but lost Mason County, normally the most Republican county in the district. Mason County went for Bush that same year. In 2002,  Palsrok won the open seat by 3000, but lost Mason County. Palsrok swept the district in 2004, winning by 5500. 2006 was a close call against Dan Scripps. Palsrok won by 1600, losing Leelanau County, and barely winning Manistee and Benzie Counties. Mason was the big county for Palsrok. Scripps absolutely demolished Ray Franz in 2008, but lost to him in 2010 once Scripps got himself a voting record.

Presidential wise, this district went for Bush twice and Obama once. Manistee County voted for Gore, Bush, and Obama. The rest of them went for Bush twice and Obama.  I don't know how this one is going to go in 2012. I'm adding the 2008 numbers for St House here as well as 2008 and 2010 were a matchup with the same people. Ray Franz and  Dan Scripps.

This is going to be a district to watch in 2012. Nothing up North comes easy, although much of this district has very different types of up north voters than the ones in Sheltrown's old district.



McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Benzie County 4687 5451 10138 -764 46.23% 53.77% -7.54%
Leelanau County 6936 7355 14291 -419 48.53% 51.47% -2.93%
Manistee County 5510 7235 12745 -1725 43.23% 56.77% -13.53%
Mason County 7147 7817 14964 -670 47.76% 52.24% -4.48%



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Total 24280 27858 52138 -3578 46.57% 53.43% -6.86%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Benzie County 5284 4393 9677 891 54.60% 45.40% 9.21%
Leelanau County 7733 6048 13781 1685 56.11% 43.89% 12.23%
Manistee County 6295 6272 12567 23 50.09% 49.91% 0.18%
Mason County 8124 6333 14457 1791 56.19% 43.81% 12.39%



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Total 27436 23046 50482 4390 54.35% 45.65% 8.70%








Last St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Benzie County 3791 3704 7495 87 50.58% 49.42% 1.16%
Leelanau County 5881 5433 11314 448 51.98% 48.02% 3.96%
Manistee County 4483 4576 9059 -93 49.49% 50.51% -1.03%
Mason County 5231 4782 10013 449 52.24% 47.76% 4.48%



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Total 19386 18495 37881 891 51.18% 48.82% 2.35%








2008 St House GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Benzie County 3962 6108 10070 -2146 39.34% 60.66% -21.31%
Leelanau County 5896 8120 14016 -2224 42.07% 57.93% -15.87%
Manistee County 5093 7694 12787 -2601 39.83% 60.17% -20.34%
Mason County 5827 9062 14889 -3235 39.14% 60.86% -21.73%



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Total 20778 30984 51762 -10206 40.14% 59.86% -19.72%

Monday, April 23, 2012

State House Redistricting - District 100 (HD-100)

State House - District 100
Current Rep - Jon Bumstead (R - Newaygo)

Candidates:
GOP - Jon Bumstead (R-Newaygo)
Dem - Ida DeHaas (D-Chase)

8-30-2012 - Bumstead won his primary.

Old District (100th)
Jon Bumstead - 17,174
Bill Richards - 8,707

This is a safe district, dominated by Newaygo County, a base county. It's unchanged from the old district and on the state level, did got get within a 5000 vote spread recently. However, while Newaygo County is the largest and is safe, the other counties are not safe. Lake County has been democrat leaning for years due to Baldwin and Idlewild (Yates Twp) and the black population there. Oceana County has a sizable Mexican population keeping it competitive. Those two flipped big to Obama, but Newaygo County kept the district to McCain.



McCain Obama Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Lake County 2269 2719 4988 -450 45.49% 54.51% -9.02%
Newaygo County 11862 10790 22652 1072 52.37% 47.63% 4.73%
Oceana County 5860 6405 12265 -545 47.78% 52.22% -4.44%



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Total 19991 19914 39905 77 50.10% 49.90% 0.19%









Bush Kerry Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Lake County 2503 2675 5178 -172 48.34% 51.66% -3.32%
Newaygo County 13608 9057 22665 4551 60.04% 39.96% 20.08%
Oceana County 6677 5441 12118 1236 55.10% 44.90% 10.20%



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Total 22788 17173 39961 5615 57.03% 42.97% 14.05%









GOP Dem Total  Diff GOP  DEM Diff
Lake County 1895 1590 3485 305 54.38% 45.62% 8.75%
Newaygo County 10110 4269 14379 5841 70.31% 29.69% 40.62%
Oceana County 5169 2845 8014 2324 64.50% 35.50% 29.00%



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Total 17174 8704 25878 8470 66.37% 33.63% 32.73%