Republican Michigander

David Morse not running for re-election

2012-03-19T11:11:00.000-04:00

Livingston County’s longest serving prosecutor, David Morse, announced today that he is not seeking re-election.Morse made the announcement to his staff on Friday and he confirmed it in an interview with the Daily Press & Argus this morning.
“I feel like I could have gone another two more years,” Morse said, noting that he didn’t want to retire half way into a four-year term. “I couldn’t face the voters knowing it’s a commitment I won’t be able to honor.”

I give Morse credit for that comment. A lot of people retire mid-term like its no big deal for extra money/benefits and also so the favorite pick can be appointed as a quasi-incumbent. Morse is letting the voters pick his replacement and finishing his term.

This means there will be a rare opening for the prosecutor's spot. Nobody has officially filed yet, but there will be some people running. Bill Vailliencourt and Bill McCririe might be candidates. Both have been longtime assistant prosecutors. Someone outside the office may run as well. It'll be interesting to see what happens here and with some of the other county offices. There is going to be some turnover this election season.

Maggie Jones is retiring from the county commission. Former Brighton Mayor Kate Lawrence is running for her spot. Dianne Hardy retired and was replaced by longtime assistant Jennifer Nash who is running as a quasi-incumbent. I've heard good things about her. Bill Green is running for County Commissioner for Jim Mantey's position. I don't know if Mantey is running for re-election or not. Bill Call is challenging Ron Van Houten who is running for re-election. Incumbents Bob Bezotte (sheriff), Dave Domas, Steve Williams, and Jack LaBelle are running for re-election.

Local governments are the governments we interact with the most. These races often get lost in the shuffle. We need to make sure that these elections receive the attention they deserve.

State House Redistricting - District 93 (HD-93)

2012-03-17T13:00:00.000-04:00

State House - District 93
Current Rep - Paul Opsommer (R - DeWitt) - Termed Out

Old District (93rd)
Paul Opsommer - 22,287
Travis Lacelle - 9,476

The old district covered most of Clinton County and all of Gratiot County. Now it covers all of Clinton County and most of Gratiot County. This district got a bit tougher for us in 2012. Ten years ago, Clinton County was a base county for the GOP. That is no longer really the case. That came to a head when Obama won Clinton County after being a consistent 55-60% county. The problem for us is why Clinton County flipped. The reason is largely Bath Township. Bath Township went from being a swing area (Bush won in 2000 and lost in 2004 - one of the rare areas that happened) to basically being part of East Lansing. Take a drive north on Chandler Rd (Abbott) and you'll miss where East Lansing ends and Bath begins. East Lansing's also annexing some land Clinton County that was part of DeWitt and Bath Twps.

The new district picks up eastern Clinton County from the 85th district. Bath Township, along with Ovid and Victor Townships. It drops Seville Twp, St Louis, Alma, Pine River Twp, Bethany Twp, and Emerson Twp to the 70th District.

Keep an eye on this district. Opsommer was a very good candidate for the area and a good rep. He even won his portion of East Lansing in 2010. The only areas Opsommer ever lost was East Lansing in 08, and Alma (now in 70th), Hamilton Twp, Newark Twp, St Louis (now in 70th), Sumner Twp, Duplain Twp, and East Lansing in the open seat of 2006. He won easily in 06, but did struggle in Gratiot County.

The good news is that we a very good candidate for the open seat. Tom Leonard. I've worked with Tom on the 8th District committee. He's good people and a good candidate. He understands both the base areas of the county and the Lansing area, and should do better than most republicans in the MSU area of the district. Unlike Opsommer, he has less of a flank to be worried about in Gratiot County simply because Alma and St Louis are in another district (although Opsommer didn't have Bath and had less of East Lansing). He should keep this district ours for another six years. I'll call this lean republican, but if there's a year to be worried, it's this year with Obama's popularity with the college crowd and the straight ticket votes from that.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clinton County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bath Twp	2303	3236	5539	-933	41.58%	58.42%	-16.84%
Bengal Twp	384	264	648	120	59.26%	40.74%	18.52%
Bingham Twp	805	654	1459	151	55.17%	44.83%	10.35%
Dallas Twp	870	349	1219	521	71.37%	28.63%	42.74%
DeWitt	1300	1379	2679	-79	48.53%	51.47%	-2.95%
DeWitt Twp	3604	4025	7629	-421	47.24%	52.76%	-5.52%
Duplain Twp	523	643	1166	-120	44.85%	55.15%	-10.29%
Eagle Twp	837	787	1624	50	51.54%	48.46%	3.08%
East Lansing	272	626	898	-354	30.29%	69.71%	-39.42%
Essex Twp	515	447	962	68	53.53%	46.47%	7.07%
Grand Ledge			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Greenbrush Twp	621	601	1222	20	50.82%	49.18%	1.64%
Lebanon twp	186	111	297	75	62.63%	37.37%	25.25%
Olive Twp	792	654	1446	138	54.77%	45.23%	9.54%
Ovid Twp	832	928	1760	-96	47.27%	52.73%	-5.45%
Riley Twp	613	560	1173	53	52.26%	47.74%	4.52%
St Johns	1748	1963	3711	-215	47.10%	52.90%	-5.79%
Victor Twp	984	1034	2018	-50	48.76%	51.24%	-2.48%
Watertown Twp	1554	1391	2945	163	52.77%	47.23%	5.53%
Westphalia Twp	983	353	1336	630	73.58%	26.42%	47.16%
Gratiot County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Arcada Twp	428	432	860	-4	49.77%	50.23%	-0.47%
Elba Twp	311	332	643	-21	48.37%	51.63%	-3.27%
Fulton Twp	652	589	1241	63	52.54%	47.46%	5.08%
Hamilton Twp	114	87	201	27	56.72%	43.28%	13.43%
Ithaca	586	793	1379	-207	42.49%	57.51%	-15.01%
Lafayette Twp	183	130	313	53	58.47%	41.53%	16.93%
New Haven Twp	231	219	450	12	51.33%	48.67%	2.67%
Newark Twp	202	224	426	-22	47.42%	52.58%	-5.16%
North Shade Twp	177	106	283	71	62.54%	37.46%	25.09%
North Star Twp	220	237	457	-17	48.14%	51.86%	-3.72%
Sumner Twp	368	463	831	-95	44.28%	55.72%	-11.43%
Washington Twp	278	170	448	108	62.05%	37.95%	24.11%
Wheeler Twp	645	596	1241	49	51.97%	48.03%	3.95%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	24121	24383	48504	-262	49.73%	50.27%	-0.54%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clinton County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bath Twp	2338	2341	4679	-3	49.97%	50.03%	-0.06%
Bengal Twp	472	202	674	270	70.03%	29.97%	40.06%
Bingham Twp	928	498	1426	430	65.08%	34.92%	30.15%
Dallas Twp	979	256	1235	723	79.27%	20.73%	58.54%
DeWitt	1521	1073	2594	448	58.64%	41.36%	17.27%
DeWitt Twp	4065	3273	7338	792	55.40%	44.60%	10.79%
Duplain Twp	629	548	1177	81	53.44%	46.56%	6.88%
Eagle Twp	910	552	1462	358	62.24%	37.76%	24.49%
East Lansing	136	265	401	-129	33.92%	66.08%	-32.17%
Essex Twp	574	380	954	194	60.17%	39.83%	20.34%
Grand Ledge			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Greenbrush Twp	720	445	1165	275	61.80%	38.20%	23.61%
Lebanon twp	216	92	308	124	70.13%	29.87%	40.26%
Olive Twp	875	584	1459	291	59.97%	40.03%	19.95%
Ovid Twp	967	696	1663	271	58.15%	41.85%	16.30%
Riley Twp	737	421	1158	316	63.64%	36.36%	27.29%
St Johns	2206	1589	3795	617	58.13%	41.87%	16.26%
Victor Twp	1141	867	2008	274	56.82%	43.18%	13.65%
Watertown Twp	1568	1143	2711	425	57.84%	42.16%	15.68%
Westphalia Twp	1007	288	1295	719	77.76%	22.24%	55.52%
Gratiot County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Arcada Twp	499	370	869	129	57.42%	42.58%	14.84%
Elba Twp	383	297	680	86	56.32%	43.68%	12.65%
Fulton Twp	724	488	1212	236	59.74%	40.26%	19.47%
Hamilton Twp	133	71	204	62	65.20%	34.80%	30.39%
Ithaca	785	636	1421	149	55.24%	44.76%	10.49%
Lafayette Twp	195	113	308	82	63.31%	36.69%	26.62%
New Haven Twp	275	166	441	109	62.36%	37.64%	24.72%
Newark Twp	246	185	431	61	57.08%	42.92%	14.15%
North Shade Twp	190	76	266	114	71.43%	28.57%	42.86%
North Star Twp	282	208	490	74	57.55%	42.45%	15.10%
Sumner Twp	433	353	786	80	55.09%	44.91%	10.18%
Washington Twp	280	157	437	123	64.07%	35.93%	28.15%
Wheeler Twp	777	491	1268	286	61.28%	38.72%	22.56%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	27191	19124	46315	8067	58.71%	41.29%	17.42%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Clinton County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bath Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Bengal Twp	397	101	498	296	79.72%	20.28%	59.44%
Bingham Twp	823	267	1090	556	75.50%	24.50%	51.01%
Dallas Twp	746	126	872	620	85.55%	14.45%	71.10%
DeWitt	1323	553	1876	770	70.52%	29.48%	41.04%
DeWitt Twp	3536	1696	5232	1840	67.58%	32.42%	35.17%
Duplain Twp	475	261	736	214	64.54%	35.46%	29.08%
Eagle Twp	780	386	1166	394	66.90%	33.10%	33.79%
East Lansing	221	195	416	26	53.13%	46.88%	6.25%
Essex Twp	478	157	635	321	75.28%	24.72%	50.55%
Grand Ledge			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Greenbrush Twp	618	249	867	369	71.28%	28.72%	42.56%
Lebanon twp	175	43	218	132	80.28%	19.72%	60.55%
Olive Twp	733	349	1082	384	67.74%	32.26%	35.49%
Ovid Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Riley Twp	602	258	860	344	70.00%	30.00%	40.00%
St Johns	1702	778	2480	924	68.63%	31.37%	37.26%
Victor Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Watertown Twp	1442	657	2099	785	68.70%	31.30%	37.40%
Westphalia Twp	826	144	970	682	85.15%	14.85%	70.31%
Gratiot County			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Arcada Twp	401	164	565	237	70.97%	29.03%	41.95%
Elba Twp	263	139	402	124	65.42%	34.58%	30.85%
Fulton Twp	600	253	853	347	70.34%	29.66%	40.68%
Hamilton Twp	96	44	140	52	68.57%	31.43%	37.14%
Ithaca	594	275	869	319	68.35%	31.65%	36.71%
Lafayette Twp	148	40	188	108	78.72%	21.28%	57.45%
New Haven Twp	188	82	270	106	69.63%	30.37%	39.26%
Newark Twp	182	81	263	101	69.20%	30.80%	38.40%
North Shade Twp	148	43	191	105	77.49%	22.51%	54.97%
North Star Twp	214	92	306	122	69.93%	30.07%	39.87%
Sumner Twp	324	145	469	179	69.08%	30.92%	38.17%
Washington Twp	243	64	307	179	79.15%	20.85%	58.31%
Wheeler Twp	586	217	803	369	72.98%	27.02%	45.95%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	18864	7859	26723	11005	70.59%	29.41%	41.18%

State House Redistricting - District 92 (HD-92)

2012-03-17T12:12:00.000-04:00

State House - District 92
Current Rep - Marcia Hovey-Wright (D-Muskegon)

Old District (92nd)
Marcia Hovey-Wright - 13,102
John McNally - 7,486

This is a solidly democrat district with little change with redistricting. The old district covers Fruitland Twp, North Muskegon, and Laketon Twp which are GOP friendly at times, but also has all of the City of Muskegon, Muskegon Twp, and Muskegon Heights which are all strongholds for the dems. The district overall is 26.7% black largely due to Muskegon Heights and Muskegon, and that is more than enough to ensure this stays democrat. The new district also has Whitehall Twp, which leans democrat, although not to the level of the three strongholds. This district has been democrat for years, and isn't likely to change anytime soon.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Fruitland Twp	1290	1813	3103	-523	41.57%	58.43%	-16.85%
Laketon Twp	1863	2636	4499	-773	41.41%	58.59%	-17.18%
Muskegon	2930	12049	14979	-9119	19.56%	80.44%	-60.88%
Muskegon Heights	158	5019	5177	-4861	3.05%	96.95%	-93.90%
Muskegon Twp	2546	5362	7908	-2816	32.20%	67.80%	-35.61%
North Muskegon	1183	1214	2397	-31	49.35%	50.65%	-1.29%
Whitehall Twp	395	566	961	-171	41.10%	58.90%	-17.79%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	10365	28659	39024	-18294	26.56%	73.44%	-46.88%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Fruitland Twp	1549	1473	3022	76	51.26%	48.74%	2.51%
Laketon Twp	2179	2174	4353	5	50.06%	49.94%	0.11%
Muskegon	3905	10039	13944	-6134	28.00%	72.00%	-43.99%
Muskegon Heights	312	3911	4223	-3599	7.39%	92.61%	-85.22%
Muskegon Twp	3328	4609	7937	-1281	41.93%	58.07%	-16.14%
North Muskegon	1456	1011	2467	445	59.02%	40.98%	18.04%
Whitehall Twp	482	465	947	17	50.90%	49.10%	1.80%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	13211	23682	36893	-10471	35.81%	64.19%	-28.38%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Fruitland Twp	1028	914	1942	114	52.94%	47.06%	5.87%
Laketon Twp	1446	1362	2808	84	51.50%	48.50%	2.99%
Muskegon	2107	5541	7648	-3434	27.55%	72.45%	-44.90%
Muskegon Heights	107	2208	2315	-2101	4.62%	95.38%	-90.76%
Muskegon Twp	1839	2407	4246	-568	43.31%	56.69%	-13.38%
North Muskegon	959	670	1629	289	58.87%	41.13%	17.74%
Whitehall Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	7486	13102	20588	-5616	36.36%	63.64%	-27.28%

State House Redistricting - District 91 (HD-91)

2012-03-17T11:56:00.000-04:00

State House - District 91
Current Rep - Holly Hughes (R-Montague)

Old District (91th)
Holly Hughes - 16,034
Ben Gillette - 12,628

The 91st is a swing district that has been competitive in most elections for a long time. Gerald Van Woerkem had some tough victories here. David Farhat and Mary Valentine battled for it. Holly Hughes ran twice for it and one once. Muskegon County overall is the most democrat part of West Michigan by far with a large union and sizable minority population. Most of the major democrat areas are in the 92nd district, but the 91st district has flipped twice.

The 91st didn't change much with redistricting. It dropped Chester Twp in Ottawa County which is republican and dropped Whitehall Twp which leans democrat. McCain was absolutely clobbered in this district back in 08, even in normally friendly areas like Fruitport and Norton Shores. Bush won the district narrowly. Dalton Twp, Roosevelt Park, and Egelston Townships are always problem spots. Norton Shores and Fruitport Twp are key areas. The GOP needs to win those areas by a good margin to keep the district.

This district should be competitive again this decade.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Blue Lake Twp	481	661	1142	-180	42.12%	57.88%	-15.76%
Casnovia Twp	695	531	1226	164	56.69%	43.31%	13.38%
Cedar Creek Twp	522	844	1366	-322	38.21%	61.79%	-23.57%
Dalton Twp	1653	2619	4272	-966	38.69%	61.31%	-22.61%
Egelston Twp	1367	2782	4149	-1415	32.95%	67.05%	-34.10%
Fruitport Twp	3283	3912	7195	-629	45.63%	54.37%	-8.74%
Holton Twp	422	602	1024	-180	41.21%	58.79%	-17.58%
Montague	587	802	1389	-215	42.26%	57.74%	-15.48%
Montague Twp	362	457	819	-95	44.20%	55.80%	-11.60%
Moorland Twp	336	412	748	-76	44.92%	55.08%	-10.16%
Norton Shores	5978	7597	13575	-1619	44.04%	55.96%	-11.93%
Ravenna Twp	803	593	1396	210	57.52%	42.48%	15.04%
Roosevelt Park	793	1317	2110	-524	37.58%	62.42%	-24.83%
Sullivan Twp	522	715	1237	-193	42.20%	57.80%	-15.60%
White River Twp	405	456	861	-51	47.04%	52.96%	-5.92%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	18209	24300	42509	-6091	42.84%	57.16%	-14.33%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Blue Lake Twp	533	515	1048	18	50.86%	49.14%	1.72%
Casnovia Twp	797	406	1203	391	66.25%	33.75%	32.50%
Cedar Creek Twp	588	757	1345	-169	43.72%	56.28%	-12.57%
Dalton Twp	1939	2165	4104	-226	47.25%	52.75%	-5.51%
Egelston Twp	1718	2302	4020	-584	42.74%	57.26%	-14.53%
Fruitport Twp	3737	3080	6817	657	54.82%	45.18%	9.64%
Holton Twp	532	482	1014	50	52.47%	47.53%	4.93%
Montague	666	676	1342	-10	49.63%	50.37%	-0.75%
Montague Twp	453	373	826	80	54.84%	45.16%	9.69%
Moorland Twp	396	347	743	49	53.30%	46.70%	6.59%
Norton Shores	6980	6054	13034	926	53.55%	46.45%	7.10%
Ravenna Twp	916	498	1414	418	64.78%	35.22%	29.56%
Roosevelt Park	1071	1119	2190	-48	48.90%	51.10%	-2.19%
Sullivan Twp	591	672	1263	-81	46.79%	53.21%	-6.41%
White River Twp	437	406	843	31	51.84%	48.16%	3.68%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	21354	19852	41206	1502	51.82%	48.18%	3.65%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Blue Lake Twp	415	298	713	117	58.20%	41.80%	16.41%
Casnovia Twp	524	225	749	299	69.96%	30.04%	39.92%
Cedar Creek Twp	428	367	795	61	53.84%	46.16%	7.67%
Dalton Twp	1268	1116	2384	152	53.19%	46.81%	6.38%
Egelston Twp	1033	1335	2368	-302	43.62%	56.38%	-12.75%
Fruitport Twp	2626	2120	4746	506	55.33%	44.67%	10.66%
Holton Twp	333	295	628	38	53.03%	46.97%	6.05%
Montague	465	387	852	78	54.58%	45.42%	9.15%
Montague Twp	329	215	544	114	60.48%	39.52%	20.96%
Moorland Twp	225	174	399	51	56.39%	43.61%	12.78%
Norton Shores	5027	3591	8618	1436	58.33%	41.67%	16.66%
Ravenna Twp	562	322	884	240	63.57%	36.43%	27.15%
Roosevelt Park	671	632	1303	39	51.50%	48.50%	2.99%
Sullivan Twp	376	434	810	-58	46.42%	53.58%	-7.16%
White River Twp	371	241	612	130	60.62%	39.38%	21.24%
Whitehall	500	391	891	109	56.12%	43.88%	12.23%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	15153	12143	27296	3010	55.51%	44.49%	11.03%

State House Redistricting - District 90 (HD-90)

2012-03-15T12:21:00.000-04:00

State House - District 90
Current Rep - Joseph Haveman (R-Holland)

Old District (90th)
Joseph Haveman - Unopposed

Districts are usually safe when nobody runs. Haveman won an easy general election in the bad year of 2008 and was unopposed for re-election in 2010. This is a safe district, although the Ottawa County portion of Holland went for Obama likely due to the large Mexican population there. Jamestown Township outvoted it easily and is an 80%+ GOP stronghold. The new district covers Ottawa County's portion of Holland, Holland Twp, Zeeland, Hudsonville, and Jamestown Twp. It stays the same except that it drops Blendon Twp, making it slightly "less safe", but this is an extremely safe district. It's over 60% McCain in the worst GOP year in West Michigan since probably 1986.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Holland	5108	5948	11056	-840	46.20%	53.80%	-7.60%
Holland Twp	8374	5959	14333	2415	58.42%	41.58%	16.85%
Hudsonville	3017	911	3928	2106	76.81%	23.19%	53.62%
Jamestown Twp	3284	720	4004	2564	82.02%	17.98%	64.04%
Zeeland	2203	841	3044	1362	72.37%	27.63%	44.74%
Zeeland Twp	3826	1169	4995	2657	76.60%	23.40%	53.19%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	25812	15548	41360	10264	62.41%	37.59%	24.82%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Holland	6361	4226	10587	2135	60.08%	39.92%	20.17%
Holland Twp	9386	3482	12868	5904	72.94%	27.06%	45.88%
Hudsonville	3521	544	4065	2977	86.62%	13.38%	73.23%
Jamestown Twp	3047	372	3419	2675	89.12%	10.88%	78.24%
Zeeland	2686	518	3204	2168	83.83%	16.17%	67.67%
Zeeland Twp	3917	645	4562	3272	85.86%	14.14%	71.72%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	28918	9787	38705	19131	74.71%	25.29%	49.43%

State House Redistricting - District 89 (HD-89)

2012-03-15T12:08:00.000-04:00

State House - District 89
Current Rep - Amanda Price (R-Park Twp)

Old District (89th)
Amanda Price - 22,153
Don Bergman - 8,554

This district covers the western side of Ottawa County. It doesn't change that much, although it drops Allendale and Crockery Twp and picks up Blendon Twp. It's a safe district, although Grand Haven is competitive in a bad year (like 2008). Primaries decide the election here, as is the case in almost all of Ottawa County.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Blendon Twp	2903	583	3486	2320	83.28%	16.72%	66.55%
Crockery Twp	1019	976	1995	43	51.08%	48.92%	2.16%
Ferrysburg	924	885	1809	39	51.08%	48.92%	2.16%
Grand Haven	2580	3346	5926	-766	43.54%	56.46%	-12.93%
Grand Haven Twp	4464	4110	8574	354	52.06%	47.94%	4.13%
Olive Twp	1424	501	1925	923	73.97%	26.03%	47.95%
Park Twp	6228	4429	10657	1799	58.44%	41.56%	16.88%
Port Sheldon Twp	1562	1030	2592	532	60.26%	39.74%	20.52%
Robinson Twp	1725	1293	3018	432	57.16%	42.84%	14.31%
Spring Lake Twp	4320	3970	8290	350	52.11%	47.89%	4.22%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	27149	21123	48272	6026	56.24%	43.76%	12.48%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Blendon Twp	3002	373	3375	2629	88.95%	11.05%	77.90%
Crockery Twp	1181	823	2004	358	58.93%	41.07%	17.86%
Ferrysburg	1049	718	1767	331	59.37%	40.63%	18.73%
Grand Haven	3225	2743	5968	482	54.04%	45.96%	8.08%
Grand Haven Twp	5079	3010	8089	2069	62.79%	37.21%	25.58%
Olive Twp	1616	359	1975	1257	81.82%	18.18%	63.65%
Park Twp	7250	3329	10579	3921	68.53%	31.47%	37.06%
Port Sheldon Twp	1834	761	2595	1073	70.67%	29.33%	41.35%
Robinson Twp	1873	883	2756	990	67.96%	32.04%	35.92%
Spring Lake Twp	4872	3171	8043	1701	60.57%	39.43%	21.15%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	30981	16170	47151	14811	65.71%	34.29%	31.41%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Blendon Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Crockery Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ferrysburg	791	365	1156	426	68.43%	31.57%	36.85%
Grand Haven	2022	1467	3489	555	57.95%	42.05%	15.91%
Grand Haven Twp	3560	1663	5223	1897	68.16%	31.84%	36.32%
Olive Twp	1109	153	1262	956	87.88%	12.12%	75.75%
Park Twp	5531	1786	7317	3745	75.59%	24.41%	51.18%
Port Sheldon Twp	1266	441	1707	825	74.17%	25.83%	48.33%
Robinson Twp	1286	472	1758	814	73.15%	26.85%	46.30%
Spring Lake Twp	3607	1573	5180	2034	69.63%	30.37%	39.27%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	19172	7920	27092	11252	70.77%	29.23%	41.53%

State House Redistricting - District 88 (HD-88)

2012-03-15T11:45:00.001-04:00

State House - District 88
Current Rep - Open

Old District (Ottawa Portion of 74th)
Dave Agema - 21,867
Leon Chase - 4,516

Ottawa County has gone from two whole districts and two partial districts to three full districts with its population growth. It's the most republican in the state, and all of the districts based here are republican (with one old partial district being a swing district.) The districts were shifted a little as well.

The old 88th is in Allegan County and now mostly the 80's. Most of the new 88th is from Dave Agema's 74th district partially in Kent County. Agema is termed out and isn't in this new 88th district anyway.

The new district covers Allendale Twp, Chester Twp, Coopersville, Georgetown Twp, Polkton Twp, Tallemadge Twp, and Wright Twp. Allendale came from the 89th District, Chester from the 91st, and the rest from the Ottawa portion of the old 74th Agema District.

It's one of the safest seats in the state in the heart of Michigan's Dutch country.
Obama only won one precinct, in Allendale. That was probably Grand Valley. Bush swept all precincts. This district will be decided in the August primary.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allendale Twp	4292	2734	7026	1558	61.09%	38.91%	22.17%
Chester Twp	675	446	1121	229	60.21%	39.79%	20.43%
Coopersville	1191	880	2071	311	57.51%	42.49%	15.02%
Georgetown Twp	19268	7623	26891	11645	71.65%	28.35%	43.30%
Polkton Twp	992	389	1381	603	71.83%	28.17%	43.66%
Tallmadge Twp	2833	1494	4327	1339	65.47%	34.53%	30.95%
Wright Twp	1118	591	1709	527	65.42%	34.58%	30.84%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	30369	14157	44526	16212	68.21%	31.79%	36.41%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allendale Twp	4260	1210	5470	3050	77.88%	22.12%	55.76%
Chester Twp	732	345	1077	387	67.97%	32.03%	35.93%
Coopersville	1389	686	2075	703	66.94%	33.06%	33.88%
Georgetown Twp	20520	5410	25930	15110	79.14%	20.86%	58.27%
Polkton Twp	1023	309	1332	714	76.80%	23.20%	53.60%
Tallmadge Twp	3006	1161	4167	1845	72.14%	27.86%	44.28%
Wright Twp	1219	474	1693	745	72.00%	28.00%	44.00%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	32149	9595	41744	22554	77.01%	22.99%	54.03%

Last State House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allendale Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Chester Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Coopersville	953	289	1242	664	76.73%	23.27%	53.46%
Georgetown Twp	16033	2728	18761	13305	85.46%	14.54%	70.92%
Polkton Twp	806	181	987	625	81.66%	18.34%	63.32%
Tallmadge Twp	2369	643	3012	1726	78.65%	21.35%	57.30%
Wright Twp	906	233	1139	673	79.54%	20.46%	59.09%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	21067	4074	25141	16993	83.80%	16.20%	67.59%

State House Redistricting - District 87 (HD-87)

2012-03-14T16:11:00.000-04:00

State House - District 87
Current Rep - Mike Callton (R-Nashville)

Old District (87th)
Mike Callton - 22,297
Greg Grieves - 8,720

This district hardly changed. It picks up Keene Twp and probably drops a small part of Ionia City/Twp. It's a safe district as the democrat parts of Ionia County are mostly in the other district. Barry County is also a safe republican county.

Callton replaced Brian Calley, who is now Lt Governor.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry County	16431	13449	29880	2982	54.99%	45.01%	9.98%
Ionia County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berlin Twp	648	454	1102	194	58.80%	41.20%	17.60%
Boston Twp	1666	1115	2781	551	59.91%	40.09%	19.81%
Campbell Twp	831	399	1230	432	67.56%	32.44%	35.12%
Danby Twp	844	684	1528	160	55.24%	44.76%	10.47%
Keene Twp	567	339	906	228	62.58%	37.42%	25.17%
Lyons Twp	811	798	1609	13	50.40%	49.60%	0.81%
North Plains Twp	207	335	542	-128	38.19%	61.81%	-23.62%
Odessa Twp	1100	719	1819	381	60.47%	39.53%	20.95%
Orange Twp	349	216	565	133	61.77%	38.23%	23.54%
Portland	894	983	1877	-89	47.63%	52.37%	-4.74%
Portland Twp	977	758	1735	219	56.31%	43.69%	12.62%
Ronald Twp	371	452	823	-81	45.08%	54.92%	-9.84%
Sebewa Twp	339	228	567	111	59.79%	40.21%	19.58%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	26035	20929	46964	5106	55.44%	44.56%	10.87%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry County	18638	11312	29950	7326	62.23%	37.77%	24.46%
Ionia County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berlin Twp	781	360	1141	421	68.45%	31.55%	36.90%
Boston Twp	1782	912	2694	870	66.15%	33.85%	32.29%
Campbell Twp	931	304	1235	627	75.38%	24.62%	50.77%
Danby Twp	965	590	1555	375	62.06%	37.94%	24.12%
Keene Twp	616	254	870	362	70.80%	29.20%	41.61%
Lyons Twp	946	656	1602	290	59.05%	40.95%	18.10%
North Plains Twp	283	308	591	-25	47.88%	52.12%	-4.23%
Odessa Twp	1269	678	1947	591	65.18%	34.82%	30.35%
Orange Twp	413	210	623	203	66.29%	33.71%	32.58%
Portland	1116	812	1928	304	57.88%	42.12%	15.77%
Portland Twp	998	580	1578	418	63.24%	36.76%	26.49%
Ronald Twp	475	377	852	98	55.75%	44.25%	11.50%
Sebewa Twp	408	181	589	227	69.27%	30.73%	38.54%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	29621	17534	47155	12087	62.82%	37.18%	25.63%

Last State House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Barry County	14172	5293	19465	8879	72.81%	27.19%	45.62%
Ionia County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Berlin Twp	510	201	711	309	71.73%	28.27%	43.46%
Boston Twp	1249	513	1762	736	70.89%	29.11%	41.77%
Campbell Twp	636	165	801	471	79.40%	20.60%	58.80%
Danby Twp	692	283	975	409	70.97%	29.03%	41.95%
Keene Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Lyons Twp	744	372	1116	372	66.67%	33.33%	33.33%
North Plains Twp	189	171	360	18	52.50%	47.50%	5.00%
Odessa Twp	896	265	1161	631	77.17%	22.83%	54.35%
Orange Twp	302	89	391	213	77.24%	22.76%	54.48%
Portland	794	444	1238	350	64.14%	35.86%	28.27%
Portland Twp	857	323	1180	534	72.63%	27.37%	45.25%
Ronald Twp	336	184	520	152	64.62%	35.38%	29.23%
Sebewa Twp	316	79	395	237	80.00%	20.00%	60.00%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	21693	8382	30075	13311	72.13%	27.87%	44.26%

State House Redistricting - District 86 (HD-86)

2012-03-14T15:45:00.000-04:00

State House - District 86
Current Rep - Lisa Posthumus Lyons (R-Alto)

Old District (86th)
Lisa Posthumus Lyons - 25,943
Frank Hammond - 10,996

This area has long had ties to the Posthumus family. Good people. Dick Posthumus was a state senator in this area before becoming Engler's Lt Governor and a gubernatorial candidate in 2002. Dave Hildenbrand was a state rep here, and was a chief of staff of Posthumus before running for state senate and winning. Hildenbrand's replacement is Lisa Posthumus Lyons, the daughter of Dick Posthumus and a former legislative aide as well.

This district changed heavily. The old district was entirely in Kent County and covered Ada Twp, Bowne Twp, East Grand Rapids, a small part of Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids Township, Grattan Twp, Lowell City and Twp, Vergennes Twp, and the city of Walker.

It only keeps Ada Twp, Bowne, Twp, Grattan Twp, Lowell, and Vergennes Twp. The rest is dropped. EGR and GR Twp goes to the 73rd district. All of Grand Rapids itself is now within the 75th/76th Districts. Walker goes to the 74th District.

The district picks up Cascade Twp and Caledonia Twp in Kent County, and picks up Belding, Otisco Twp, Easton Twp, Ionia, and Ionia Twp in Ionia County. It is still a very safe district, like all Kent County based rural districts are. The Ionia part is sometimes competitive and went for Obama and Mike Huckleberry, but it's not enough to affect the district. McCain won it by almost 8000 votes. Ada, Caledonia, and Cascade Twps are all GOP strongholds. This district is safe.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ionia County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Belding	916	1256	2172	-340	42.17%	57.83%	-15.65%
Easton Twp	729	717	1446	12	50.41%	49.59%	0.83%
Ionia	1004	1318	2322	-314	43.24%	56.76%	-13.52%
Ionia Twp	746	787	1533	-41	48.66%	51.34%	-2.67%
Oreleans Twp	557	613	1170	-56	47.61%	52.39%	-4.79%
Otisco Twp	600	485	1085	115	55.30%	44.70%	10.60%
Kent County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4668	2965	7633	1703	61.16%	38.84%	22.31%
Bowne Twp	1257	476	1733	781	72.53%	27.47%	45.07%
Caledonia Twp	4492	2259	6751	2233	66.54%	33.46%	33.08%
Cascade Twp	6610	4176	10786	2434	61.28%	38.72%	22.57%
Grattan Twp	1233	913	2146	320	57.46%	42.54%	14.91%
Lowell	921	915	1836	6	50.16%	49.84%	0.33%
Lowell Twp	1734	1244	2978	490	58.23%	41.77%	16.45%
Vergennes Twp	1550	898	2448	652	63.32%	36.68%	26.63%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	27017	19022	46039	7995	58.68%	41.32%	17.37%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ionia County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Belding	1206	1010	2216	196	54.42%	45.58%	8.84%
Easton Twp	817	631	1448	186	56.42%	43.58%	12.85%
Ionia	1308	1208	2516	100	51.99%	48.01%	3.97%
Ionia Twp	901	687	1588	214	56.74%	43.26%	13.48%
Oreleans Twp	693	475	1168	218	59.33%	40.67%	18.66%
Otisco Twp	713	414	1127	299	63.27%	36.73%	26.53%
Kent County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4933	2157	7090	2776	69.58%	30.42%	39.15%
Bowne Twp	1327	387	1714	940	77.42%	22.58%	54.84%
Caledonia Twp	4662	1570	6232	3092	74.81%	25.19%	49.61%
Cascade Twp	7254	3160	10414	4094	69.66%	30.34%	39.31%
Grattan Twp	1367	756	2123	611	64.39%	35.61%	28.78%
Lowell	1072	701	1773	371	60.46%	39.54%	20.92%
Lowell Twp	1885	1047	2932	838	64.29%	35.71%	28.58%
Vergennes Twp	1640	672	2312	968	70.93%	29.07%	41.87%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	29778	14875	44653	14903	66.69%	33.31%	33.38%

Last State House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Ionia County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Belding			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Easton Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ionia			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ionia Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Oreleans Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Otisco Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Kent County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Ada Twp	4226	1312	5538	2914	76.31%	23.69%	52.62%
Bowne Twp	1070	182	1252	888	85.46%	14.54%	70.93%
Caledonia Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Cascade Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Grattan Twp	1083	393	1476	690	73.37%	26.63%	46.75%
Lowell	772	345	1117	427	69.11%	30.89%	38.23%
Lowell Twp	1563	510	2073	1053	75.40%	24.60%	50.80%
Vergennes Twp	1369	322	1691	1047	80.96%	19.04%	61.92%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	10083	3064	13147	7019	76.69%	23.31%	53.39%

State House Redistricting - District 85 (HD-85)

2012-03-12T12:23:00.000-04:00

State House - District 85
Current Rep - Ben Glardon (R-Owosso)

Old District (85th)
Ben Glardon - 17,970
Pamela Drake - 11,059

This district has some changes to it. The old one was treading blue due to the Clinton County portion of the district. Bath Township, which borders East Lansing to the north, is in the process of going from a swing area 12 years ago, to solidly democrat due to the new MSU Student apartment complexes that are on Chandler Road. East Lansing itself is also annexing some property in Bath Township (and DeWitt Township which was in another district). Surprising to me, Glardon won Bath Twp, something that his predecessor did not do the last two elections. It made this an easy win for an open seat.

Shiawassee County is still a swing county, although more friendly to republicans than it used to be. The dems had this district a long time until Larry Julian took it narrowly in 1998. The west side of the county has more of a Lansing influence and the east side more of a Flint/Saginaw influence. There's still a large farming influence here which moderates the county influences. The county borders Livingston to the South, but the rural areas more reflect Livingston County in the 80's when it wasn't as republican, especially downticket (Farm influence). In short, it takes a lot of hard work by either side to win here.

The new district drops all of the Clinton County portion and instead adds rural areas in Saginaw County. Rural Saginaw County is quite interesting in its voting patterns. Some of those areas are strongly democrat. Others aren't and are quite republican such as Richland Twp (probably commuters to Saginaw or Midland who despise the city). The further northwest you go, generally the more GOP friendly the area is. The further south, the more democrat, especially Chesening.

I think the new district is more friendly in avoiding straight tickets, but could set up a problem if a social conservative populist democrat makes a run. They do well in Shiawassee County to begin with, and historically do very well in Southern Saginaw County. Rural Saginaw County districts have largely followed similar patterns as Shiawassee County. Dems have done well there downticket until recently. Mike Goschka and Jim Howell helped break through over there.

We may have had this district in one form or another since 1998, but it's not always been easy. Glardon's open seat win was the exception, not the rule. Richard Ball never won by over 4000 votes. Larry Julian had two easy wins, but his first election win was by 356 votes (in a district without Bath Twp).

Keep an eye on this one. I don't think it's competitive days are done yet. Slightly leaning R at best.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Shiawassee County	16268	19397	35665	-3129	45.61%	54.39%	-8.77%
Saginaw County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brady Twp	481	629	1110	-148	43.33%	56.67%	-13.33%
Brant Twp	583	487	1070	96	54.49%	45.51%	8.97%
Chapin Twp	220	208	428	12	51.40%	48.60%	2.80%
Chesening Twp	961	1502	2463	-541	39.02%	60.98%	-21.97%
Fremont Twp	607	513	1120	94	54.20%	45.80%	8.39%
Jonesfield Twp	421	438	859	-17	49.01%	50.99%	-1.98%
Lakefield Twp	288	281	569	7	50.62%	49.38%	1.23%
Maple Grove Twp	588	906	1494	-318	39.36%	60.64%	-21.29%
Marion Twp	223	186	409	37	54.52%	45.48%	9.05%
Richland Twp	1390	955	2345	435	59.28%	40.72%	18.55%
Total	22030	25502	47532	-3472	46.35%	53.65%	-7.30%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Shiawassee County	19407	16881	36288	2526	53.48%	46.52%	6.96%
Saginaw County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brady Twp	540	560	1100	-20	49.09%	50.91%	-1.82%
Brant Twp	620	469	1089	151	56.93%	43.07%	13.87%
Chapin Twp	260	173	433	87	60.05%	39.95%	20.09%
Chesening Twp	1280	1328	2608	-48	49.08%	50.92%	-1.84%
Fremont Twp	680	422	1102	258	61.71%	38.29%	23.41%
Jonesfield Twp	474	427	901	47	52.61%	47.39%	5.22%
Lakefield Twp	334	249	583	85	57.29%	42.71%	14.58%
Maple Grove Twp	731	798	1529	-67	47.81%	52.19%	-4.38%
Marion Twp	240	159	399	81	60.15%	39.85%	20.30%
Richland Twp	1555	858	2413	697	64.44%	35.56%	28.89%
Total	26121	22324	48445	3797	53.92%	46.08%	7.84%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Shiawassee County	14441	8406	22847	6035	63.21%	36.79%	26.41%
Saginaw County:			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brady Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Brant Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Chapin Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Chesening Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Fremont Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Jonesfield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Lakefield Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Maple Grove Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Marion Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Richland Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	14441	8406	22847	6035	63.21%	36.79%	26.41%

State House Redistricting - District 84 (HD-84)

2012-03-12T11:38:00.000-04:00

State House - District 84
Current Rep - Kurt Damrow (R-Port Austin)

Old District (84th)
Kurt Damrow - 15,183
Terry Brown - 15,153

This is an unchanged district covering Huron and Tuscola Counties in the thumb. It is a person over party district and a swing district if Terry Brown wants a rematch. The dems took this district with Brown back in 2006. The dems also came close in 2002. While national democrats who are social liberals are strongly disliked in the thumb, locals are much more competitive. Brown only lost because of 2010 as he ran well ahead of Obama (and remember that McCain quit Michigan). Tuscola County in particular was very unfriendly to all democrats, and Brown was caught up in that wave. Huron County though didn't turn on him like they did others. Small town politics often survives wave elections if one works hard enough.

I'm going to call this a swing district if Brown wants his old job back. If not, it can very between lean R and swing. I'm hearing about some grumblings up that way, so I'm not calling this one safe.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	8434	8367	16801	67	50.20%	49.80%	0.40%
Tuscola County	13740	13503	27243	237	50.43%	49.57%	0.87%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	22174	21870	44044	304	50.35%	49.65%	0.69%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	9671	7629	17300	2042	55.90%	44.10%	11.80%
Tuscola County	15389	12631	28020	2758	54.92%	45.08%	9.84%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	25060	20260	45320	4800	55.30%	44.70%	10.59%

Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	5625	6481	12106	-856	46.46%	53.54%	-7.07%
Tuscola County	9558	8672	18230	886	52.43%	47.57%	4.86%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	15183	15153	30336	30	50.05%	49.95%	0.10%

Ridiculous laws of the week - Pt 3

2012-03-12T01:32:00.000-04:00

This one's a pain for committee treasurers. Out of of all the nitpicky rules out there I have to follow and warn my clients about, this one probably bothers me the most, at least the portion in bold.

MICHIGAN CAMPAIGN FINANCE ACT (EXCERPT)
Act 388 of 1976

169.241 Single contribution of $20.00 or expenditure of $50.00; written instrument; anonymous contribution; contribution in name of another; violations; penalties.

Sec. 41.

(1) A person shall not make or accept a single contribution of more than $20.00 in cash or make or accept a single expenditure of more than $50.00 in cash. Contributions of more than $20.00 and expenditures of more than $50.00, other than an in-kind contribution or expenditure, shall be made by written instrument containing the names of the payor and the payee.

(2) A person shall not accept or expend an anonymous contribution. An anonymous contribution received by a person shall not be deposited but shall be given to a tax exempt charitable organization. The charitable organization receiving the contribution shall provide the person with a receipt. The receipt shall be retained by an appropriate committee pursuant to section 22.

(3) A contribution shall not be made, directly or indirectly, by any person in a name other than the name by which that person is identified for legal purposes.

(4) A person who knowingly violates this section is guilty of a misdemeanor punishable, if the person is an individual, by a fine of not more than $1,000.00 or imprisonment for not more than 90 days, or both, or, if the person is other than an individual, by a fine of not more than $10,000.00.

I agree with sections 2 and 3. Full disclosure is important. Section 1 of this is a real pain in the arse. I can't legally donate $25 or $50 in cash, or legally accept it in cash? That's incredibly stupid. Even a $1.00 donation to a campaign has to be recorded and itemized under Michigan law. Most people don't know that. Unlike federal law, there is no unitemized contributions. If you donate $20 in cash to a campaign I'm treasuring, I need to take your name and address, just as I would if you wrote me a $20 check, used a credit card, or paid with a $20 money order. In other words, what difference does it make if you donate in cash, if I have to record your information anyway? Are you going to lie to me? You can do that with a money order too.

If the worries are bad recording and filling out forms with BS, someone who is going to do that with cash donations can just as easily do that with checks or money orders unless there's a major audit. Rules like this just make things a major pain for those who follow the rules. I can't tell you how many times grass roots candidates have balked at me about this when I point out this law. I always tell them that it is a stupid law, but it's not worth being busted by the Bureau of Elections or making the papers.

Also, if you're passing the hat around at functions, the money there can't be used for political funds. Administrative only. I've seen that happen before with a political committee (not my clients or my committees) and pointed it out to people that should have known better. They were asking for trouble. I think my face was pale white as a ghost, even more than it normally is.

There's another law that limits cash expenditures to $50. That one I support and isn't so ridiculous. When people give contributions to political committees, they expect the money to be spent properly. They expect it to go towards the campaign. It's not so I can gamble the money away at the casinos (which is also known as embezzlement or in simple terms - stealing).

The $20 cash limit for contributions needs to go, or at least be changed to $100. If I have to record the information, it shouldn't matter what form of transaction is used.

State House Redistricting - District 83 (HD-83)

2012-03-11T13:37:00.000-04:00

State House - District 83
Current Rep - Paul Muxlow (R-Brown City)

Old District (83rd)
Paul Muxlow - 14,940
Alan Lewandowski - 10,116

This district is unchanged with redistricting. It gave us a major bit of humble pie in 2004. Paul Muxlow won the open seat in 2010. The dems took this seat in 2004 despite Bush dominating the district. John Espinoza was the perfect candidate for the district, but party candidate assistance directors shot our candidate in the foot with a bad mailing taking this district out of reach. Our candidate didn't need that kind of help from our friends. We got it back now.

Sanilac County which is highly conservative and populist and votes the person over the party. They liked Jim Barcia and John Espinoza. They hated John Kerry and do not like national democrats. They usually vote republican, but not always. The district also has Burtchville, Fort Gratiot, and the city of Port Huron in St Clair County. Port Huron is democrat, enough to the point where this isn't a safe district.

If the dems didn't have this from 2004-2010, I'd call this a lean R district. I'd like to keep this for two cycles before calling it that, in case there's another Espinoza or Terry Brown type in the wings. This district is about the person more than the party.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Sanilac County	10679	9047	19726	1632	54.14%	45.86%	8.27%
Burtchville Twp	952	1062	2014	-110	47.27%	52.73%	-5.46%
Fort Gratiot	2936	3073	6009	-137	48.86%	51.14%	-2.28%
Port Huron	4223	7912	12135	-3689	34.80%	65.20%	-30.40%
Total	18790	21094	39884	-2304	47.11%	52.89%	-5.78%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Sanilac County	12632	7883	20515	4749	61.57%	38.43%	23.15%
Burtchville Twp	994	946	1940	48	51.24%	48.76%	2.47%
Fort Gratiot	3253	2681	5934	572	54.82%	45.18%	9.64%
Port Huron	5360	6857	12217	-1497	43.87%	56.13%	-12.25%
Total	22239	18367	40606	3872	54.77%	45.23%	9.54%

Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Sanilac County	8347	4681	13028	3666	64.07%	35.93%	28.14%
Burtchville Twp	829	502	1331	327	62.28%	37.72%	24.57%
Fort Gratiot	2441	1539	3980	902	61.33%	38.67%	22.66%
Port Huron	3296	3394	6690	-98	49.27%	50.73%	-1.46%
Total	14913	10116	25029	4797	59.58%	40.42%	19.17%

State House Redistricting - District 82 (HD-82)

2012-03-11T13:10:00.000-04:00

State House - District 82
Current Rep - Kevin Daley (R-Arcadia Twp)

Old District (82nd)
Kevin Daley - 20,341
Mark Monson - 8,400

This is an almost safe district consisting of all of Lapeer County. Lapeer County over the last 20 years has gone from a relatively competitive albeit conservative county to an almost safe county at the top of the ticket. Kildee and Barcia have won the county on multiple occasions, and dems have won state rep districts here (one for about 20 years) in the past, although not recently. Obama came close to taking it with McCain quitting, but McCain held on. Bill Clinton was the last to win the county. The dems still try and make runs here, but this one might be gone or almost gone. When you go from often competitive to "good enough to lose", it's trouble. I think this may be their version of Farmington Hills. It's once good territory for them that may just be gone, especially if people in North Oakland continue to move into places like Metamora.

Lapeer County	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
2008 Presidential	22831	21457	44288	1374	51.55%	48.45%	3.10%
2004 Presidential	25556	18086	43642	7470	58.56%	41.44%	17.12%
Last State House	20341	8400	28741	11941	70.77%	29.23%	41.55%

State House Redistricting - District 81 (HD-81)

2012-03-11T12:52:00.000-04:00

State House - District 81
Current Rep - Jud Gilbert (R-Algonac)

Old District (81st)
Jud Gilbert - 19,882
Carol Morrissette - 8,590

This district is a C shaped district that covers most of St Clair County. It doesn't change that much, outside of dropping Riley, Kenockee, and Casco Townships to the 32nd district. It doesn't add any new areas.

St Clair County has a reputation as a Republican County and it is treading our way some (outside 2008 disaster), but it's not a safe republican county. Democrats have won it in the past. Clinton and Obama took it, as did David Bonior when he was in congress. Gore barely lost it. A similar district back in the 1990's was very competitive when it had the city of Port Huron and Kimball Township. The dems almost took it in 1998 and 2000, and had districts that included parts of St Clair county in the last decade and in the 1990's. The current map (along with Riley/Casco/Kenockee Twp) was relative close in 2004.

Jud Gilbert, a former rep and state senator, came back to the house in 2010. I think he might be termed out, but I'm not sure about that. I'd call this district almost safe if it's open. There's dem strength in Marysville, Port Huron Twp, and Marine City, but most of the district tils republican. In addition, Kimball Twp and the city of Port Huron are in other districts. McCain won the district. It would take a disaster to lose this district, but there was a disaster that cost us a neighboring district in 2004 (and 06/08).

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Algonac	990	1011	2001	-21	49.48%	50.52%	-1.05%
Berlin Twp	957	627	1584	330	60.42%	39.58%	20.83%
Brockway Twp	543	463	1006	80	53.98%	46.02%	7.95%
China Twp	1076	932	2008	144	53.59%	46.41%	7.17%
Clay Twp	2865	2235	5100	630	56.18%	43.82%	12.35%
Clyde Twp	1622	1371	2993	251	54.19%	45.81%	8.39%
Cottrellville Twp	946	829	1775	117	53.30%	46.70%	6.59%
East China Twp	1064	1050	2114	14	50.33%	49.67%	0.66%
Emmett Twp	667	616	1283	51	51.99%	48.01%	3.98%
Grant Twp	583	448	1031	135	56.55%	43.45%	13.09%
Greenwood Twp	389	343	732	46	53.14%	46.86%	6.28%
Lynn Twp	331	256	587	75	56.39%	43.61%	12.78%
Marine City	840	1155	1995	-315	42.11%	57.89%	-15.79%
Marysville	2536	2980	5516	-444	45.98%	54.02%	-8.05%
Memphis	93	77	170	16	54.71%	45.29%	9.41%
Mussey Twp	881	921	1802	-40	48.89%	51.11%	-2.22%
Port Huron Twp	2070	2604	4674	-534	44.29%	55.71%	-11.42%
St Clair	1574	1476	3050	98	51.61%	48.39%	3.21%
St Clair Twp	2151	1611	3762	540	57.18%	42.82%	14.35%
Yale	376	469	845	-93	44.50%	55.50%	-11.01%
Total	22554	21474	44028	1080	51.23%	48.77%	2.45%

	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Algonac	1060	1005	2065	55	51.33%	48.67%	2.66%
Berlin Twp	1074	566	1640	508	65.49%	34.51%	30.98%
Brockway Twp	597	351	948	246	62.97%	37.03%	25.95%
China Twp	1124	809	1933	315	58.15%	41.85%	16.30%
Clay Twp	3134	2137	5271	997	59.46%	40.54%	18.91%
Clyde Twp	1625	1178	2803	447	57.97%	42.03%	15.95%
Cottrellville Twp	994	721	1715	273	57.96%	42.04%	15.92%
East China Twp	1163	865	2028	298	57.35%	42.65%	14.69%
Emmett Twp	689	527	1216	162	56.66%	43.34%	13.32%
Grant Twp	578	365	943	213	61.29%	38.71%	22.59%
Greenwood Twp	392	341	733	51	53.48%	46.52%	6.96%
Lynn Twp	343	237	580	106	59.14%	40.86%	18.28%
Marine City	992	1047	2039	-55	48.65%	51.35%	-2.70%
Marysville	3017	2652	5669	365	53.22%	46.78%	6.44%
Memphis	104	64	168	40	61.90%	38.10%	23.81%
Mussey Twp	1036	750	1786	286	58.01%	41.99%	16.01%
Port Huron Twp	2198	2342	4540	-144	48.41%	51.59%	-3.17%
St Clair	1739	1379	3118	360	55.77%	44.23%	11.55%
St Clair Twp	2288	1444	3732	844	61.31%	38.69%	22.62%
Yale	476	387	863	89	55.16%	44.84%	10.31%
Total	24623	19167	43790	5456	56.23%	43.77%	12.46%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Algonac	853	327	1180	526	72.29%	27.71%	44.58%
Berlin Twp	756	222	978	534	77.30%	22.70%	54.60%
Brockway Twp	462	171	633	291	72.99%	27.01%	45.97%
China Twp	716	309	1025	407	69.85%	30.15%	39.71%
Clay Twp	2458	881	3339	1577	73.61%	26.39%	47.23%
Clyde Twp	1298	500	1798	798	72.19%	27.81%	44.38%
Cottrellville Twp	765	305	1070	460	71.50%	28.50%	42.99%
East China Twp	867	347	1214	520	71.42%	28.58%	42.83%
Emmett Twp	513	238	751	275	68.31%	31.69%	36.62%
Grant Twp	464	161	625	303	74.24%	25.76%	48.48%
Greenwood Twp	290	124	414	166	70.05%	29.95%	40.10%
Lynn Twp	252	110	362	142	69.61%	30.39%	39.23%
Marine City	373	206	579	167	64.42%	35.58%	28.84%
Marysville	2024	1113	3137	911	64.52%	35.48%	29.04%
Memphis	66	34	100	32	66.00%	34.00%	32.00%
Mussey Twp	694	328	1022	366	67.91%	32.09%	35.81%
Port Huron Twp	1690	939	2629	751	64.28%	35.72%	28.57%
St Clair	1103	494	1597	609	69.07%	30.93%	38.13%
St Clair Twp	1446	593	2039	853	70.92%	29.08%	41.83%
Yale	317	126	443	191	71.56%	28.44%	43.12%
Total	17407	7528	24935	9879	69.81%	30.19%	39.62%

State House Redistricting - District 80 (HD-80)

2012-03-10T17:05:00.000-05:00

State House - District 80
Current Rep - Bob Genetski (R-Saugatuck)

Old District (88th)
Bob Genetski - 13,518
Randy Thompson - 8,389

Allegan County is an interesting county. The southern part is sometimes competitive, and the Saugatuck/Douglas leans democrat as it's the gay capitol of West Michigan. However, Northern Allegan County might as well be an extension of Ottawa County. That makes this district safe for the GOP even in a real bad year. This is a safe district as Allegan County overall competes with Livingston and Hillsdale Counties each year for being the third best county for republicans by percentage. That's despite Saugatuck, Douglas (part of Saugatuck Twp until either 06 or 08 election), Lee Twp, and the Plainwell areas. There's a major difference between Northern Allegan County, Southern Allegen County, and the Saugatuck portion. It's still safe.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan	845	1212	2057	-367	41.08%	58.92%	-17.84%
Allegan Twp	946	1114	2060	-168	45.92%	54.08%	-8.16%
Casco Twp	636	792	1428	-156	44.54%	55.46%	-10.92%
Cheshire Twp	426	524	950	-98	44.84%	55.16%	-10.32%
Clyde Twp	359	446	805	-87	44.60%	55.40%	-10.81%
Douglas	246	472	718	-226	34.26%	65.74%	-31.48%
Fennville	163	279	442	-116	36.88%	63.12%	-26.24%
Fillmore Twp	1124	308	1432	816	78.49%	21.51%	56.98%
Ganges Twp	662	708	1370	-46	48.32%	51.68%	-3.36%
Gunplain Twp	1520	1621	3141	-101	48.39%	51.61%	-3.22%
Heath Twp	1204	506	1710	698	70.41%	29.59%	40.82%
Holland (Allegan)	2093	1391	3484	702	60.07%	39.93%	20.15%
Hopkins Twp	770	514	1284	256	59.97%	40.03%	19.94%
Laketown Twp	2318	1285	3603	1033	64.34%	35.66%	28.67%
Lee Twp	428	635	1063	-207	40.26%	59.74%	-19.47%
Manlius Twp	991	569	1560	422	63.53%	36.47%	27.05%
Martin Twp	761	455	1216	306	62.58%	37.42%	25.16%
Monterey Twp	597	450	1047	147	57.02%	42.98%	14.04%
Otsego	711	982	1693	-271	42.00%	58.00%	-16.01%
Otsego Twp	1217	1433	2650	-216	45.92%	54.08%	-8.15%
Overisel Twp	1334	274	1608	1060	82.96%	17.04%	65.92%
Plainwell	731	1035	1766	-304	41.39%	58.61%	-17.21%
Salem Twp	1509	638	2147	871	70.28%	29.72%	40.57%
Saugatuck	229	396	625	-167	36.64%	63.36%	-26.72%
Saugatuck Twp	779	963	1742	-184	44.72%	55.28%	-10.56%
South Haven (part)	2	5	7	-3	28.57%	71.43%	-42.86%
Trowbridge Twp	575	623	1198	-48	48.00%	52.00%	-4.01%
Valley Twp	442	516	958	-74	46.14%	53.86%	-7.72%
Watson Twp	470	447	917	23	51.25%	48.75%	2.51%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	24088	20593	44681	3495	53.91%	46.09%	7.82%


	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan	1035	1005	2040	30	50.74%	49.26%	1.47%
Allegan Twp	1108	924	2032	184	54.53%	45.47%	9.06%
Casco Twp	768	673	1441	95	53.30%	46.70%	6.59%
Cheshire Twp	541	475	1016	66	53.25%	46.75%	6.50%
Clyde Twp	421	318	739	103	56.97%	43.03%	13.94%
Douglas			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Fennville	235	201	436	34	53.90%	46.10%	7.80%
Fillmore Twp	1261	196	1457	1065	86.55%	13.45%	73.10%
Ganges Twp	787	599	1386	188	56.78%	43.22%	13.56%
Gunplain Twp	1743	1334	3077	409	56.65%	43.35%	13.29%
Heath Twp	1267	355	1622	912	78.11%	21.89%	56.23%
Holland (Allegan)	2479	941	3420	1538	72.49%	27.51%	44.97%
Hopkins Twp	871	434	1305	437	66.74%	33.26%	33.49%
Laketown Twp	2711	961	3672	1750	73.83%	26.17%	47.66%
Lee Twp	471	588	1059	-117	44.48%	55.52%	-11.05%
Manlius Twp	1091	412	1503	679	72.59%	27.41%	45.18%
Martin Twp	832	355	1187	477	70.09%	29.91%	40.19%
Monterey Twp	628	360	988	268	63.56%	36.44%	27.13%
Otsego	892	832	1724	60	51.74%	48.26%	3.48%
Otsego Twp	1375	1124	2499	251	55.02%	44.98%	10.04%
Overisel Twp	1389	163	1552	1226	89.50%	10.50%	78.99%
Plainwell	919	881	1800	38	51.06%	48.94%	2.11%
Salem Twp	1450	457	1907	993	76.04%	23.96%	52.07%
Saugatuck	311	389	700	-78	44.43%	55.57%	-11.14%
Saugatuck Twp	1142	1145	2287	-3	49.93%	50.07%	-0.13%
South Haven (part)	4	3	7	1	57.14%	42.86%	14.29%
Trowbridge Twp	712	557	1269	155	56.11%	43.89%	12.21%
Valley Twp	540	424	964	116	56.02%	43.98%	12.03%
Watson Twp	550	379	929	171	59.20%	40.80%	18.41%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	27533	16485	44018	11048	62.55%	37.45%	25.10%

Last St House	GOP	DEM	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Allegan	695	437	1132	258	61.40%	38.60%	22.79%
Allegan Twp	867	402	1269	465	68.32%	31.68%	36.64%
Casco Twp	548	368	916	180	59.83%	40.17%	19.65%
Cheshire Twp	369	219	588	150	62.76%	37.24%	25.51%
Clyde Twp	308	152	460	156	66.96%	33.04%	33.91%
Douglas	276	256	532	20	51.88%	48.12%	3.76%
Fennville	139	87	226	52	61.50%	38.50%	23.01%
Fillmore Twp	928	93	1021	835	90.89%	9.11%	81.78%
Ganges Twp	578	352	930	226	62.15%	37.85%	24.30%
Gunplain Twp	799	414	1213	385	65.87%	34.13%	31.74%
Heath Twp	990	169	1159	821	85.42%	14.58%	70.84%
Holland (Allegan)	1763	501	2264	1262	77.87%	22.13%	55.74%
Hopkins Twp	673	196	869	477	77.45%	22.55%	54.89%
Laketown Twp	2073	562	2635	1511	78.67%	21.33%	57.34%
Lee Twp	295	237	532	58	55.45%	44.55%	10.90%
Manlius Twp	808	214	1022	594	79.06%	20.94%	58.12%
Martin Twp	606	169	775	437	78.19%	21.81%	56.39%
Monterey Twp	520	193	713	327	72.93%	27.07%	45.86%
Otsego			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Otsego Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Overisel Twp	1119	88	1207	1031	92.71%	7.29%	85.42%
Plainwell	631	399	1030	232	61.26%	38.74%	22.52%
Salem Twp	1198	228	1426	970	84.01%	15.99%	68.02%
Saugatuck	227	205	432	22	52.55%	47.45%	5.09%
Saugatuck Twp	807	470	1277	337	63.19%	36.81%	26.39%
South Haven (part)	2	6	8	-4	25.00%	75.00%	-50.00%
Trowbridge Twp	499	233	732	266	68.17%	31.83%	36.34%
Valley Twp	384	207	591	177	64.97%	35.03%	29.95%
Watson Twp			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	18102	6857	24959	11245	72.53%	27.47%	45.05%

Did 100,000 democrats actually cross over 3-1 for Santorum in the Michigan primary? I don't believe they did.

2012-03-05T13:11:00.000-05:00

One of the big pushes from Romney surrogates in Michigan is that due to sites like Daily Kos and a Santorum robocall, that 100-120,000 democrats voted in the Michigan primary to create mischief like the case with McCain in 2000. The source that is used is exit polling from CNN. I do not begrudge the surrogates for using exit polling as a source. On a lot of things, it is good. I think the polling was close with a lot of factors. That aspect I am doubting. I also highly suspect that it is being used as quasi-justification for awarding that extra delegate to Romney after the fact.

Even if the 100,000 democrat crossover is true, I don't have a lot of sympathy for it. This year. The reason being is that the party chose an open, or a closed in name only primary with same day choice of ballot. There's no party registration in Michigan either. I've long argued against an open primary when there is no contest on the other side. It only works when there is a competitive race on both sides. Presidential primaries are much different than August counterparts when both sides usually (although not always) have contests of their own.

So why don't I think 60,000 votes out of the 377,000 cast for Santorum came from democrats? Actual election returns. If you look at Michigan maps, especially 2004, you'll see how many counties votes for democrats and how many voted for republicans, along with which ones. A lot of the democrats in Michigan are concentrated in a few areas. This can be seen with the congressional districts. Most of the democrat districts, especially under the new allocation, are 60% or more democrat. All of those districts except the 13th district, votes for Romney, not Santorum. Most of the Republican held districts voted for Santorum.

GOP held Districts:
CD 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 - Santorum
CD 8, 11 - Romney

Dem districts:
CD 5, 9, 12, 14 - Romney
CD 13 - Santorum

That alone doesn't tell the whole story. There are pockets of democrats in the republican districts and pockets of republicans in the democrat districts, but it is not hard to find samples in democrat areas. One thing is clear, most of Santorum's votes were from Republicans. Most of Romney's votes were also from Republicans. Democrats don't win Livingston County in primaries. Democrats don't win Ottawa County in primaries.

I'll start with Pontiac and Auburn Hills. Why? Pontiac is a democrat stronghold in Oakland County. It's 80% democrat every election. It also was ground zero for an open state rep election and charter issue as well, so there is a reason for the democrats to vote there besides mischief. Here's the results for that state rep district, strictly in Pontiac itself, followed by Auburn Hills, a democrat leaning area, but not nearly on the same scale. Republicans often get 45% of the vote there, although McCain bombed and Obama broke 60% there.

Pontiac:
Tim Greimel (D) - 88.10% - 5,746
Bob Gray (R) - 11.90% - 776

Auburn Hills:
Bob Gray (R) - 50.53% - 1,338
Tim Greimel (D) - 49.47% - 1,310

Gray overperformed in Auburn Hills, probably due to the presidential primary. Here's the primary results in both areas there.

Auburn Hills: (population about 21,500)
Romney - 743 - 40.23%
Santorum - 639 - 34.88%
Paul - 279 - 15.23%
Newt - 117 - 6.39%
Obama - 782 - 93.65%
Dem Uncommitted - 53 - 6.35%

Pontiac: (Population about 59,000)
Santorum - 575 - 41.01%
Romney - 364 - 25.96%
Paul - 317 - 22.61%
Newt - 92 - 6.56%
Obama - 4881 - 97.72%
Dem Uncommitted - 114 - 2.28%

Most dems stayed home in their primary, even with just Obama there with "uncommitted". About 15-20% of Pontiac often votes Republican and about 45% of Auburn Hills often votes Republican. The Republicans in Pontiac are more likely working class social conservatives and small business owners. Those in Auburn Hills tend to vary. Auto executives are there, and it is also Tom McMillan's old stomping grounds before he went to the Rochester area. Both Romney and Santorum received more votes in Auburn Hills than Pontiac. Ron Paul was another story.

Here's one of the most Republican areas of Oakland County. Brandon Township. I'm going to follow that with nearby Oakland Township. They are both republican strongholds in Oakland County. There were not a lot of crossovers here. Both of these areas are consistently over 60% Republican areas.

Brandon Twp:
Santorum - 802
Romney - 775
Paul - 275
Obama - 135
D Uncommitted - 22

Oakland Twp
Romney - 1736
Santorum - 870
Paul - 271
Obama - 188
D Uncommitted - 17

Both of those are North Oakland Republican strongholds. The areas there are both republican areas voting for different republican candidates. One's a little more rural than the other, but neither are Bloomfield Hills where there is more of a homer factor.

Macomb County results varies some as well. The strongholds there are less like Pontiac and are whiter, with some republican pockets, and a lot of union independents. There wasn't a real pattern one way or the other.

Warren (about 60% dem):
Romney 4229, Santorum 4074, Paul 1337, Obama 3066, D uncommitted 638
Roseville's percentages were about the same as Warrens

Washington Twp (GOP Stronhold)
Romney 1932, Santorum 1347, Paul 355, Obama 376. D uncommitted 66

Utica (50/50)
Santorum 217, Romney 213, Paul 77, Obama 89, D uncommitted 28

Ray Twp (GOP Stronghold)
Santorum 261, Romney 250, Paul 74. Obama 53, D uncommitted 11

Overall Santorum won these areas:
GOP - Armada, Memphis, Ray, Richmond City and Twp
Dem - Center Line, Eastpointe,
Swing - Lenox, Utica

Santorum didn't win Roseville, Warren, or Mt Clemens which are democrat, nor Republican areas like Washington Twp, Shelby Twp, or Macomb Twp.

Obama had the most votes in Center Line, Eastpointe, Roseville, all narrowly.
Romney actually beat him in Mt Clemens. Both Santorum and Romney beat him in Warren. I think both candidates had their share of crossovers in these parts of Macomb County. Social liberals more to Romney and Social conservatives more to Santorum. I certainly didn't see a big push though one way or another, despite dem consultant Joe DiSano's advocacy of mischief.

Looking at another democrat stronghold. Washtenaw County.

Ann Arbor had less than 10% turnout outside of the 2nd Ward which is more republican than most of the city. That is a high money area, and went for Romney. The rest of Ann Arbor was mixed across the board, but hardly enough to manner. Some went to Santorum, some Romney, some Paul. Some of those were probably crossovers, but at less than 10% turnout, they could just as easily been those few republicans in the city.

Ypsi went narrowly for Santorum, but Obama had more votes there. The "rural" Ann Arbor Township precinct went for Santorum. That's also the Dominos Farms location. Whitmore Lake area went for Santorum. Augusta Twp (south of Ypsi) did as well. Probably not crossovers. Saline went for Romney. Probably not crossovers there either. These areas are matching about what I'd suspect.

I've look at different election areas across the state. I'm noting really out of the ordinary with vote patterns. 100,000 votes or even 65,000 in crossovers is very significant. If someone can point out where they would come from, I'd appreciate it. I don't see it. Not with Bay County and Saginaw County going for Romney, and if I was going to expect crossovers, it would be there.

I may be wrong and missing the forest for the trees here, but I don't see it. Exit polls are usually close, but not 100% in all aspects, and sometimes that is due to people lying. Voting results are what tell the truth.

Ridiculous laws of the week - Pt 2

2012-03-04T10:00:00.003-05:00

Here's another bad law:

750.505 Punishment for indictable common law offenses.

Sec. 505.

Any person who shall commit any indictable offense at the common law, for the punishment of which no provision is expressly made by any statute of this state, shall be guilty of a felony, punishable by imprisonment in the state prison not more than 5 years or by a fine of not more than $10,000.00, or both in the discretion of the court.

How many people who aren't attorneys know what common law even is? It's judge made law. Law in Michigan is based on the English Common Law system. Common law is modified by judges when there is no statutes. Criminal law statutes are often based on common law and codified. That's good so people can supposedly know when they are breaking the law. Common law is often used in torts, contracts, and property cases. That's nothing unusual and the common law is often based on old customs to reduce surprises. In criminal cases, this is bad because theoretically, we need to be sure what the law is so we don't end up in prison.

This law was actually attempted to be enforced against the late Dr Jack Kevorkian. I'm not a fan of Dr Death at all, but this was a ridiculous attempt by the prosecutor's office in Oakland County. This ended in acquittal, likely a case of jury nullification, which is not always a bad thing.

Dr. Jack Kevorkian today was found not guilty of violating Michigan common law against assisted suicide, closing two cases that his lawyers said were by far the most significant of the five acquittals he has won at three trials.

The 1994 Supreme Court, much more liberal than the current court due to the Blanchard and Milliken judges, said that "assisted suicide" wasn't a right (which is understood) but also a "common law crime based on custom" opening this up. Common law crimes federally were abolished in 1812 although things vary among the states.

Crimes need statutes, penalties, and jurisdiction. The old saying is that ignorance of the law is no excuse, but it shouldn't take an attorney to understand if one is breaking the law, especially for a felony. Just because something isn't usually enforced does not mean it isn't on the books and could be enforced at a later date if prosecutors are out to get someone.

Early coronation attempts from some tea parties are not the way to go

2012-03-03T20:40:00.002-05:00

I want to preface this post by saying that I'm neither pro, nor anti tea-parties. Plural because they are heavily local based. When one is right, I'll support it. When it's wrong, I oppose it. The same goes for RNC, MIGOP, PACs and local parties. I'm not a paying member of any tea party organization. I'm not tied to any tea party leadership. I have been a visitor to Retakeourgov meetings in the past and think they are a very well run organization. Neither they, nor Brighton Tea Party from what I've read, took part in this. A lot of other tea parties did not either, at least 21 of them. Hence, why I used the word SOME in the title with regards to this.

FromMidland News Herald

MT. PLEASANT - Members of a coalition of Tea Party groups Saturday endorsed Gary Glenn of Midland for the Republican nomination to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

Glenn is president of the American Family Association of Michigan, and has long been active in conservative social causes. He’s best known as one of the authors of the so-called Marriage Protection Amendment to the Michigan constitution, which banned gay marriage in the state.

“I simply told the truth about where I think this country is headed,” Glenn told representatives of about 48 activist groups from across the state gathered at downtown Mt. Pleasant’s Centennial Hall. “If Barack Obama and Debbie Stabenow are re-elected, they threaten to take away our birthright of freedom, and turn our country into the United Socialist States of America.”

I knew about this in December, a week before my warning about big fish wannabes in small ponds. I heard then that this was a setup for Gary Glenn back then. I'm not posting this to discuss the positives and negatives of Gary Glenn as a candidate. My problem would remain the same if this was set up for any of the other candidates running, especially at this point. I also don't care for this being marketed as a "stop Stabenow" attempt as we already have a good process for that called the August primary.

This was my warning in December.

This is a dangerous game that can easily become more about personalities than about issues. Certain people like to see themselves as power brokers. You get on the right PAC boards and you become "an important person." You can puff yourself up to sound even more important, and can have some yesman who follow you, tell you how great you are, and then try and take your spot in the future. There's also yesmen "leaders" who will automatically "lead" their group to follow whatever some big name wants. That's what I refer to as big fish in little pond syndrome. I've seen it over 11 years of involvement in PACs, C4's, Party, and office politics. Guess what. Most of those who think they are big names, really aren't that important. The ones who puff themselves up in the room, usually aren't important, and deep down, they know it.

I hope the tea parties (plural) stay about ideology, and less about personalities. THAT is their strength. Once they become about personalities and favorites, it's all downhill from there. The cost is respect.

Some folks consider me a big name. I'm not that big. I'm just big enough to be a pain in the arse when I choose to be. Big names come and go real quick. In some respects, I was a bigger name 10 years ago and got in a nasty office politics battle. It was a learning experience and one I never forget. The winners were nobody. The losers were everybody. The six of us lost. The other side got a Pyrrhic victory as the best people (us) were no longer there and the organization wasn't even close to being the same. Been there. Done that. Don't want to see it on our side again. Don't want to be brought into it, but quite capable if I am forced to do so.

According to Michigan for Conservative Senate, 43 tea parties made the decision. At least 21 did not, and some have said that the number was over 60 that did not.

What's wrong with this from a tactical standpoint?

1. Infighting. Michigan for Conservative Senate calls this a Tea Party endorsement in its press release. That's not going to sit well with a lot of people.

2. Process. Some were excluded in the decision. How was the process? Was Glenn that much better than Hoekstra, Durant, Konetchy, Hekman, Marino, or Boman?

3. Timing. This was announced right before the presidential primary. How much press did "Michigan for Conservative Senate" receive for this? Some, but not nearly what it would be in May. This limits the help for Glenn. Few were paying attention to the senate race.

4. Timing pt 2. We have no idea who is a viable candidate or who can win. If you're going to gamble like this all in, you better be ready to both win the primary and take out the dangerous incompetent one - Debbie Stabenow. The filing deadline is May. That's the first we'll see of someone getting weeded out and/or dropped out candidates. Things can change quickly. Spence Abraham was up 20% over Stabenow in September of 2000. He lost. The campaign is just beginning.

As voters, we need to look at the candidates, where they stand, who they are, and do our due diligence in making a decision this August. Take this endorsement for what it is. A pick made from some representatives of some tea parties. No more. No less. It's not a consensus for all of them. I just hope it doesn't lead to unneeded trouble.

I'm infamous

2012-03-01T16:03:00.000-05:00

Dawson Bell at the Free Press is reporting that I had the closest call on primary predictions for the congressional districts. I sometimes "troll" on the
Michigan Liberal site and posted my predictions there. I always like Mark Grebner's posts even when I don't agree with him. Those are worth a read there because he knows his stuff. Too bad there wasn't prize money for the predictions.

I was close, but not quite right with my underestimation of the absentee voting.

Absotute Bullshit from the credentials committee

2012-03-01T15:19:00.002-05:00

Flat out. This is legalized cheating. This is something that Richard Daley or Boss Tweed would pull. He's smiling from his grave. ACORN's cheering too.

From The Detroit Free Press

The Mitt Romney-Rick Santorum Michigan primary results just got a little more contentious.

Michigan’s two at-large delegates to the Republican National convention will be awarded to Michigan native Mitt Romney, following a vote last night by the state party’s credentials’ committee.

The vote came despite the party’s rules that the two at-large delegates are supposed to be awarded on a proportional basis based on the statewide popular vote. Romney won the statewide vote by a 41% to 38% margin over former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

The rest of the state’s delegates will be split evenly between Romney and Santorum because each won seven congressional districts across the state.

This is the biggest example of why there's animosity between tea party groups and some committees within state party. If Santorum won the statewide popular vote, would you change the delegates after the fact? We all know the answer to that. Stick with the rules you made before the election. This is going to set off a firestorm among the grassroots, and also have repercussions in other states.

How is this going to factor down south (if they do the same for Santorum) or with states on Super Tuesday? Not very well. It will again feed into the perception (and reality here) that the elites are pushing Mitt Romney on us no matter what. It's bullshit. State committee as a whole needs to reverse this decision for their credibility, and stick with the original results. Procedures are important, and it's bad precedent, reminding me of a couple of convention votes (and cheating) from the old days before Saul Anuzis implements actual voting machines in voting. By this lame attempt to save face with a Romney "win" in Michigan, the credentials committee is getting egg on the entire state party, reflecting back on all members of party leadership down to district and county level. It's not worth one delegate.

This bullshit needs to be reversed ASAP. Kudos to Mike Cox and Eric Doster (election law attorney) for voting against this.

Post election Michigan analysis - Romney v Santorum

2012-03-01T15:03:00.000-05:00

There's a lot of spin going on about this election. Santorum's claiming he won on election day. I think he's right. Pundits are claiming that Santorum collapsed from a 15 point lead on the last day. I think those are largely wrong. He never had a 15 pt lead here. There's also a lot of pissing and moaning about crossover Democrats (around 10% or so) and exit polls having Romney "Winning" republican voters.

As for crossovers, they may have mattered in the 13th district, but that's about it. ALL of the other major democrat districts went for Romney. 5th (narrowly - and Santorum won the Republican county), 9th (Levin), 12th (Dingell), 14th (Clarke/Peters). Romney won the 8th, 10th, and 11th held by Republicans, but the rest went for Santorum. Romney won the vote in Bay and Saginaw Counties. It's Tuscola that nearly cost him in the 5th.

Apparently, the at large was supposed to be split, but state party wants to change the rules for Romney so there isn't a tie here. (eyeroll). If Jason Gillman's right, This is the type of bullshit that pisses people off. It's the same reason I have absolutely no sympathy whatsoever about Santorum courting Reagan Democrats, or getting crossover votes. Romney's supporters chose this system. They wanted the open or closed in name only primary. They wanted it because they were worried about a Pawlenty or someone else upsetting their favorite candidate and thought that Romney would ironically appeal to independents and democrats. I pushed for caucus when this was decided, and I support that now. I don't think democrats should vote in Republican primaries. However, I'm not going to get pissed off when it happens when it is preventable and the powers that be choose not to prevent it. T.S. Don't change things after the fact because your boy didn't get the win. This is why people get mad at party leadership. Bill Schuette and his guys behind the scenes need to back off. Go back to busting potheads or something. Santorum did best in the most republican counties, with the exception of Livingston, Atrim, and Emmet. Santorum won Ottawa, Allegan, Missaukee, Hillsdale, Barry, Branch, St Joe, Sanilac, Lapeer, Osceola, Wexford, and Kent. That ain't due to democrats.

The biggest lesson from last Tuesday was this. The election wasn't Tuesday. It was from 30 days before Tuesday that ended Tuesday. I also made one major miscalculation in my predictions. I knew seniors would go for Romney as did the absentees. The absentee vote was key. I don't know the exact percentages, and won't because some counties combine absentee votes with normal precinct votes in their reporting. Others don't. Here are some samples.

Macomb County:
Romney Election Day 23,188
Romney AV 14,650
Total: 37,838

Santorum Election Day 22,999
Santorum AV 7,219
Total: 30,218

Total AV's - 21,869 (32.13% of the vote between the two of them not counting others)

That was enough to flip the 10th District to Romney. Absentees probably flipped the 5th as well although I can't get good AV reports there.

Romney won Kalamazoo County 9671-9008. It was absentees that once again made the difference there. Even in areas Santorum won, he lost absentees. Some areas in K-zoo combined absentees. Some didn't. The REPORTED AS ABSENTEE vote went 2479-1052 for Romney. That alone was 19% of the vote and does not include about 1/2 of the municipalities so the closer AV number between the two of them was probably 25-30% Take away just the reported as absentee votes, and Santorum won K-zoo County 7956-7192.

Unfortunately, I can find good AV precinct data in interior Northern MI counties that voted for Romney narrowly, but from what I have seen so far, the AV's are at least 25% of the vote, and might be closer to 30% statewide. If that is the case, then the polling samples were way off earlier. The polls had 17% absentee estimates. Why the discrepancies?

Exit polls had Santorum winning those ages 30-64, Romney winning Seniors, and Ron Paul winning the 20-somethings. There isn't a lot of surprises. Santorum did best with those "most conservative" and those who strongly emphasized the life issue. It was the pro-life vote. That's in-line with most polling up through the elections. The senior sample thought should be higher. This is speculation, but the pollsters probably missed the snowbirds. A lot of the voters were probably in Florida. Florida already had their primary and Romney won. A lot of the snowbirds probably made an early decision and sent it in. Pollsters didn't reach them because they wern't home or at least the home where they are likely registered. Why would they be registered in Michigan? Property tax homestead exemptions. The millage rates are much lower with homesteads than a vacation home here.

Absentees are often 30%+ in a general election. Anyone running campaigns in Michigan need to remember that and start early. Romney did and won because of that. Santorum became a 'legitimate candidate' in Michigan on February 7th (hat trick win), after the voting already started in Michigan. His whole Michigan campaign was in three weeks. It's amazing he even competed here with two strikes against him (money and early voting).

Long story short. Don't forget the absentees.

Unofficial Michigan results by congressional district - Romney 16, Santorum 14

2012-02-29T01:50:00.009-05:00

3rd Update 3-1 - Changing the rules after the fact gives Romney the extra delegate.

2nd Update 2-29 - Apparently the at large delegates will be split 1-1 because they were close. That means Romney and Santorum actually tied in Michigan.

Update 2-29 - According to MIRS, Santorum won 1-4, 6, 7, 13. Romney won 5, 8-12, 14.

I'd still like to see the Tuscola numbers. Surprised at 13 from the absentee numbers I saw, but knew it was close.

MIRS numbers:
Congressional District Vote Breakdown (according to the Michigan Republican Party).

1st: Romney, 32,252. Santorum*, 32,325.
2nd: Romney, 29,912. Santorum*, 39,900.
3rd: Romney, 31,999. Santorum*, 33,491.
4th: Romney, 27,117. Santorum*, 29,528.
5th: Romney* 21,691. Santorum, 20,837.

6th: Romney, 26,738. Santorum*, 31,126.
7th: Romney, 28,925. Santorum*, 30,133.
8th: Romney*, 32,930. Santorum, 25,234.
9th: Romney* 24,060. Santorum, 17,221.
10th: Romney*, 31,319. Santorum, 29,278.

11th: Romney*, 41,733. Santorum, 24,577.
12th: Romney*, 19,623. Santorum, 17,675.
13th: Romney, 7,946. Santorum* 9,481.
14th: Romney*, 18,157. Santorum, 10,844

-------------------------------

First off, ignore the Sec of State's website for delegates. It's supposed to be by the NEW districts, and not the old districts. CNN did a great job with the county map.

I ran some numbers. The obvious districts ones I'm going to just call. Districts 2 and 6 went for Santorum just based on looking. Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 14 went for Romney. I can't get a read on the 13th, so I'm going to assume it's Romney's unless I find results that say otherwise due to the 10,000 vote Romney spread in Wayne County. (Updated - Wayne County Precinct results are in. MIRS called it for Santorum.

District 1:
Santorum by about 590. Mason County wasn't included, but Santorum won it so I'll call it for Santorum.

District 3:
Santorum by about 1669

District 4:
Santorum by about 1982 (Saginaw's clerk numbers for district splitting)

District 5:
Depends on Tuscola County. Too close to call. ALL of Tuscola gives Santorum a 968 vote edge. With it, Santorum wins by 511. Without it Romney leads by 457. I can't call it. MIRS called it for Romney.

District 7:
I have Santorum up 930 not factoring in Scio Township. 1/2 of Scio Township is in the 7th, and it's the less democrat part, relatively speaking (Dexter side). Romney took the Washtenaw portion of the 7th by 865, not counting Scio. It's close, but I'm going to call the 7th for Santorum. - (Scio is in. Even with all of Scio included, Santorum wins by about 300-400)

District 13:
MIRS called it for Santorum. Crossovers may have won this one since I think Romney won (barely) the more republican areas due to absentee votes.

So right now as it stands:
Romney wins overall, CD 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14. Total of 16
Santorum wins CD 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 13. Total of 14.

--------------

What did I learn from this? Romney didn't win this election today. He won this election largely 30 days ago. Santorum may actually have won "today." The election wasn't only today though. Absentee voters skewed the polls off slightly, and turned what I expected to be 1% either way into an approximate 3% victory. Seniors according to an exit poll voted for Romney by 16%. Absentee voting went higher if the patterns I saw in Kent, Washtenaw, and Macomb Counties went statewide. I had a bad feeling when I saw a low turnout today at the polls, combined with heavy absentees for Romney. Romney polled well with seniors which concerned me because in elections, they often run the show and bring their pick the victory. That's not to any party's advantage in Michigan despite Obama's bad polling among seniors. Seniors would also be the folks who remember George Romney as governor where I'd only know the name from political history.

The other thing I thought was a mistake by both candidates was not visiting Livingston County. This is the 3rd most republican county by percentage in the state, and it was ignored. Romney won it, which isn't surprising because he DID visit Milford next door and has at least been here before. Santorum had a chance to introduce himself here and didn't do so. Many voters here relied on the news when defining Santorum. Many also did with Romney, but a lot of folks have met him or met someone who has met him, especially Oakland transplants. Advantage Romney.

This puts Romney in a good position for Super Tuesday, but nothing's set in stone yet. There's still a primary. Personally at this point, I'd like to see a brokered convention. I never thought I'd say that. I don't expect it to happen, but I think we'd get a better overall GENERAL election candidate from a convention than what we are saddled with today. Romney's organization saved his ass here today. It's his biggest campaign strength. The problem is that there's only so much that can be done with this flawed a candidate. Santorum didn't become a player until Iowa and then those three wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri (I think). He then did what he did in Michigan in only a month while taking a scorched earth blast from Romney. Will he recover or not? I don't know. I don't know if Newt's still in the game either.

After today, I'm rooting for the brokered convention. That's my new endorsement, long shot as it may be. Until the final decision is made, I'll be happy to go back to covering state level and local level stuff.

Michigan Results for February 28th Primary posted here

2012-02-28T20:10:00.005-05:00

8:07

Polls have closed here outside of a couple of Yooper counties in central time.

I'm going to try and keep up with the results and post them here. Keep in mind the following.

The winner may or may not finish first statewide. The winner is who wins most of the congressional districts. I expect this to be a nailbiter. My prediction is Romney by 1% statewide thanks to absentees with Santorum being the actual winner by congressional district. I hope I'm half right and Mr Scorched Earth gets upset completely. Santorum likely got walloped with absentees. That's tough to get past, although possible. Mike Cox survived that in 2002 against Gary Peters.

There's also two state rep districts. The 29th and 51st. I'll post those results as I see them. My gut tells me we'll split those districts with the 29th going dem and the 51st staying with us. That's just a gut feeling.

Locally, there's a fire millage as well.

-----------------------------------
8:40

So far:

6%in
Santorum up 40-38% Statewide

Oakland County: (19 precincts in)
Romney - 3577
Santorum - 2623

Largely Waterford, Hazel Park, partial reports of W Bloomfield and Milford.

State Rep 29th
Bob Gray - 169
Tim Gremiel - 145

------------------------
9:00

I think Romney's going to take this.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/county/map/r/mi - CNN Map

He's doing much better up north than I expected and doing very well in South Macomb which I didn't expect (North is closer). Low turnout skews the results to absentees and seniors. That's Romney's ace in the hole.

---------------------
9:19 - Joe Graves is up.

STATE LEGISLATURE 51ST DISTRICT
VOTE FOR 1
(WITH 7 OF 52 PRECINCTS COUNTED 13.46%)
Joseph Graves . . . . . . . . . 1,459 51.21
Steven M. Losey . . . . . . . . 1,244 43.66
Cary Neuville-Justice . . . . . . 127 4.46
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . . . 19 .67
Total . . . . . . . . . 2,849
Over Votes . . . . . . . . . 3
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . 53

Tim Griemel is up 2-1 over Bob Gray in the 29th.

Overall, Mitt up 41-38 with 31% in. I'll start guessing Congressional districts when more results are in.

-------------------
10PM
Statewide - Romney up 40-36%. They haven't called it, but Romney will win.

The Secretary of State also made a mistake using OLD districts for reporting by district. It's the NEW districts that matter.

District 1 - Close. Northern Lower is unexpectedly (to me) going for Romney with the UP going for Santorum.

District 2 - Santorum

District 3 - Close. Calhoun is split with Romney up less than 1%. Barry/Ionia heavily Santorum

District 4 - I think Santorum will take this one.

District 5 - Close.

District 6 - Santorum

District 7 - Close.

Districts 8-14 - Romney

If Santorum hangs on to 3, 5, and 7, it will be 16-14 Romney in delegates.

Also, Tim Gremiel is going to take the 29th district, and Joe Graves is up 800 votes in the 51st.

------------------
11PM
Howell fire millage passes easily.

Joe Graves and Tim Gremiel are the winners for their state rep races. Graves was in particular good news on an otherwise bad news day for conservatives.

The media made it official and called it for Romney. I was looking closely at Macomb results. Absentees were the key. Election Day starts 30 days before the actual election day.

I'll get into the number crunching for congressional district tomorrow.

Less than two hours left. Don't forget to vote! Go Santorum!

2012-02-28T18:23:00.001-05:00

The internal polling must be close. I say because Romney's surrogates - specifically Bill Schuette/Rusty Hills/Randy Richardville here are going crazy right now all at once. They are mad because Santorum is going after social conservative Reagan Democrats, many of which are union members. I know these types of people very well. My family has a large number of them. In order to win in November, you need these votes to win. Period.

Romney supporters largely wanted the open primary. Irony is that it might - we don't know yet - might come back and bit him in the arse. Because independents and democrats according to polls do not like Romney, they are going crazy. You chose the system. We could have had a caucus. You chose the system. This is coming from a guy who voted for Paul Tsongas (D) in 1992. This is from a guy who bragged about voting in democrat primaries in the past. Now that it hurts him, he's whining. This was a process backed by the same people going crazy today. The Bill Schuettes of the party. Many of us wanted a caucus. Some wanted a convention. They wanted the open primary, and they got it. They chose the rules of the game.

Personally, I wouldn't be unhappy with a brokered convention if someone new gets the nomination. Of those left currently in the race, I think Santorum is the best choice. He's pro-life, does not support Romneycare, is pro-2nd Amendment, did not raise fees or taxes, and has in the past voted for a balanced budget. He also supports manufacturing and energy development. Romney became pro-life when he ran for president, signed a gun ban, raised fees, enacted Romneycare, and flip flops so often that people flat out do not trust him. How again is this guy the "electable one?"

In addition, I have a bit of resentment in how Romney was pushed on us. We were told, over, and over, and over again from the pundits and politicians that he's "the ONLY electable one" without one shred of real evidence why he is electable and HOW he appeals to independent voters. None. All I've been getting is a shitload of robocalls about how the other guy sucks. Now one robocall sent to union members about how Romney supported the Wall Street bailout and opposed the auto one, and they go ape. Santorum is consistent and against both bailouts. That's not a secret. He said that on multiple occasions and took heat for it. Romney's taking heat too from the same people he was supposed to "appeal to" as he's "the electable" one.

Team Scorched Earth is getting scorched, and they don't like it. Too bad.

Internal Poll - Santorum up 5 in MI?? Last PPP Poll Santorum up 1, Last Mitchell Poll Romney up 1

2012-02-28T14:36:00.000-05:00

Take a leaked internal poll from an anonymous source for what it is worth. I do not know how true this is.

From Buzzfeed

From the source:
Santorum- 33%
Romney- 28%
Gingrich- 12%
Paul- 6%

--------

I think the Ron Paul numbers are a little low there, but that could be due to me being in my 30's and a 2nd Amendment backer, knowing a lot of both 20 somethings and gun owners who will support him. I also do not expect either side to win by 5 pts. I might be wrong.

Recent polling overall moved from Mitt heavily to Santorum, heavily back to Mitt, and at the end slightly towards Santorum finishing about dead even. Low turnout I think favors Mitt because of the absentees. PPP has Santorum up one in today's poll, Mitchell has Romney up 1. That means this one should go to the wire.

Last area code numbers: (PPP). 17% Overall absentee, 83% overall election day estimates.

231 - Absentee 71-29 Romney, Election Day 43-33 Santorum
248 - Absentee 56-26 Romney, Election Day 43-29 Romney
269 - Absentee 44-37 Romney, Election Day 40-31 Santorum
313 - Absentee 45-27 Romney, Election Day 40-25 Santorum (Surprising with Grosse Pointe)
517 - Absentee 57-30 Romney, Election Day 46-40 Santorum
586 - Absentee 73-27 Romney, Election Day 53-32 Santorum
616 - Absentee 63-27 Romney, Election Day 51-26 Santorum
734 - Absentee 50-31 Romney, Election Day 31-30 Santorum (surprising)
810 - Absentee 67-24 Romney, Election Day 42-25 Santorum
906 - Absentee 100% Romney, Election Day 45-26-18 Santorum, Paul, Romney
989 - Absentee 46-27 Romney, Election Day 43-30 Romney (surprising)

I predicted yesterday Santorum taking the delegate win with Romney winning overall by 1 due to Oakland County results and the absentees. We'll see what happens.

Election Day

2012-02-28T10:09:00.001-05:00

I can't speak for the rest of the state but I was able to walk in, vote, and leave. Voter number 25 in my Green Oak precinct. I voted for Santorum. There was no campaign activity that I saw either, although there was some grumbling overall about the number of robocalls out there.

Besides the presidential primary, we have:

State Rep elections for the old 29th and 51st districts. Good luck to Bob Gray and Joe Graves.

A millage election in the zone covered by Howell area fire authority.

-----------------
Updated - 1:20. Looks like low turnout in other parts of Livingston County as well. Parents were 89-90 around 12:30 in a heavily GOP precinct in Genoa Township.

Ridiculous laws of the week - part 1

2012-02-28T01:44:00.000-05:00

Back when I was in undergrad, one of my favorite websites was a sports related site called "Jerk of the Week." The site is no longer with us and covered the major sports and gave "jerk points" for every action that made it. I thought about a jerk of the week for politicians, but instead decided on focusing it on one of my biggest sources of political related heartburn - bad laws.

Those who have read Atlas Shrugged know this quote.

"There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? What's there in that for anyone? But just pass the kinds of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted - and you create a nation of lawbreakers - and then you cash in on guilt. Now that's the system, Mr. Rearden, that's the game, and once you understand it, you'll be much easier to deal with."

One of the biggest problems with this country and state is the fact that there's too many laws. Many are archaic, or not even needed in the first place. A lot of those laws are also administrative regulations and not even statutes. I said last year that you are probably a criminal and don't even know it. It is Atlas Shrugged coming to life. This is the fault of both parties equally to get to this point.

Here's the first law I'm going to start with. It's one that almost everyone has broken at some time or another.

750.314 Winning at gambling.

Sec. 314.

Any person who by playing at cards, dice, or any other game, or by betting or putting up money on cards, or by any other means or device in the nature of betting on cards, or betting of any kind, wins or obtains any sum of money or any goods, or any article of value whatever, is guilty of a misdemeanor if the money, goods, or articles so won or obtained are of the value of not more than $50.00. If the money, goods, or articles so won or obtained are of the value of more than $50.00, the person is guilty of a misdemeanor punishable by imprisonment for not more than 1 year or a fine of not more than $1,000.00.

If you win a $50.01 bet, you can go to jail for a year and be fined $1000. On the other hand, you can go to the Casino or play Keno at the bar after five glasses of whiskey and it be perfectly legal. You can play the Lottery, and it's legal. You go to a friend's house for a game of poker, and it better be for chips.

I understand the push to limit actual gambling dens, but do you really need to ban a friendly game of poker? I'll answer it. No you don't. Stop making criminals of good people.

There's plenty more where that came from.

Michigan Primary Preview - What to look for

2012-02-27T21:54:00.000-05:00

This primary is different than a lot of them. The winner isn't who gets 50.1% of the vote statewide this time. It's the winner of each of the new congressional districts (you can see which district you are in on the sidebar) The statewide winner gets two delegates. The statewide winner probably gets two delegates, which counts the same as one district.

You could see Romney 51-49 or Santorum 51-49, and the other guy getting more delegates and actually winning. Because of the districts, areas I have to watch, in no order by district.

District 1 - The UP does things their own way. They will likely decide this district. The Lake Michigan coast I expect to go Romney and inland I expect to go to Santorum.

District 2 - Muskegon could make an impact, but Ottawa County will probably decide this unless it is close. Kentwood and Wyoming could also be players here.

District 3 - Kent County is the bulk of the district. If it's close, watch Calhoun County, Barry County, and Ionia County.

District 4 - Clinton County is a new addition here and the fastest growing county in the state. Midland is an anchor, along with a lot of the Saginaw Suburbs. There's also a large number of rural areas in this district.

District 5 - Southern Genesee County has their own state rep election to replace Paul Scott. Crossover independents and democrats could very well decide this district. Watch places like Flushing, Davison, Bay County, and Standish.

District 6 - All of Allegan County is now in the district. That's the big anchor here. Kalamazoo and Berrien Counties also can impact this.

District 7 - Monroe County replaced Calhoun County. This district became more populist with that move. Hillsdale and Branch are small counties, but impact heavily due to its GOP percentage. Jackson County is the anchor. Spring Arbor and Summit Townships lead the way there.

District 8 - I'm biased, but I think both candidates make a major mistake by not going to Livingston County. It's the third most Republican County in the state by percentage. I think this hurts Santorum more than Romney since Romney went to nearby Milford. North Oakland also has a little different personality than the "Oakland County" portrayed in the media. Ron Paul could make an impact in Lansing and some of the rural areas as well.

District 9 - Part of Romney's old home area is in the district. It also has a lot of democrat areas in South Macomb. I expect Romney to win here due to the Oakland part of the district, but South Macomb could throw a monkeywrench into some plans.

District 10 - North Macomb will have a lot to say about this district, but so does the thumb, especially if it votes as a block.

District 11 - Probably Romney's best district unless West Oakland and Western Wayne County surprises me. If Novi, South Lyon, and Northville go Romney, it's over in this district. Auburn Hills will have a state rep race as well tomorrow. Good luck to Bob Gray.

District 12 - Who wins here. Ann Arbor area crossovers or Downriver/Dearborn crossovers?

District 13 - Redford, Garden City, and Westland have a lot of power tomorrow. Detroit is unpredictable.

District 14 - Grosse Pointes, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield will probably decide this district. Detroit is also unpredictable.

Looking at the state results at the Secretary of State's office only will give you part of the story. An "Oakland County" result will only give part of the story. One think polling hasn't done is subdivide Oakland County by the district. North Oakland and to a lesser extent West Oakland each have their own characteristics. The same goes for Wayne and Macomb Counties, and Kent to a lesser extent.

My predictions I made last week and will stand by today are this:

MI-1 - Santorum. Romney will likely win the areas near the Lake Michigan Coast, but will probably get beat bad with the more populist inland. He'll probably lose the UP as well.

MI-2 - Santorum. Romney lost here in 08

MI-3 - Santorum, but close. The new third drops Kentwood and Wyoming. Barry and Ionia Counties should be friendly to Santorum, as should the rural parts of Kent County. Calhoun County will be key as well.

MI-4 - Santorum. I think this is just a bad matchup district for Mitt.

MI-5 - Santorum - Romney's closing some ground here, but I think he hangs on.

MI-6 - Santorum - Romney lost here in 08.

MI-7 - Santorum - Another bad matchup for Romney. More so with Monroe County.

MI-8 - Romney - Tough to predict, but Santorum may have a missed opportunity in not going to Livingston County. Romney didn't either, but campaigned in nearby Milford.

MI-9 - Romney - Big.

MI-10 - Santorum - Macomb is volitile, and so is the thumb. I think the thumb will break heavily against Mitt, while Macomb will be close.

MI-11 - Romney's best district.

MI-12 - Romney. Ann Arbor crossovers will save him.

MI-13 - Santorum. I'm going against the grain, but Redford and Westland is probably tougher turf for Romney than the major GOP vote in Wayne County (MI-11 or the Grosse Pointes in MI-14)

MI-14 - Romney. The Pointes, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield will go for Mitt.

I'm not that confident in my predictions about 3, 5, (both Santorum) 8, 12,(Romney) and 13. (Santorum). I'm going to guess Romney wins by 1% due to absentees and a big win in Oakland County, but Santorum takes the delegates.

Santorum - 18
Romney - 12

We'll see what happens.

Thanks for the robocalls, Mitt Romney.

2012-02-25T16:37:00.001-05:00

I got home yesterday and found five robocalls on my answering machine. So far, I've gotten three of them today with another four-five hours left. At least half of them were calls of the "vote for me, he sucks" variety. If Romney wants to portray himself as a fiscal conservative, I have two words for him. Fee increases. One more word. Romneycare.

I have not received one robocall from the campaigns or superpacs supporting Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, or Ron Paul. Nor even the usual offenders with leftist group American Family Voices. The only offender lately has been Romney's campaign or Superpac. The robocalls are usually bad this time of year, but the worst part is that this is ALL from ONE campaign - at least here in Green Oak Township, Michigan.

I'll be doing my best to teach Mitt a lesson by voting against him Tuesday and voting for Rick Santorum. In the meantime, could everyone please shut the hell up with these robocalls. I can't stand those things.

Don't forget the special elections! Joe Graves and Bob Gray are running for state house

2012-02-25T12:55:00.000-05:00

While all the hype for the February 28th Special election is for the presidential primary, there are some other elections going on that day. Two of the most important are in the state house where there's two vacancies. These are the OLD districts, not the redistricted areas which do not take affect electionwise until August.

Bob Gray is running in the old 29th District, covering Pontiac and Auburn Hills. This is a longshot, but if there is any chance at all of winning, it is due to the republican presidential primary being on the same day. If most of Pontiac stays home, we have a shot. This election is to replace Tim Melton who resigned to take a job at an educational organization.

The other election is highly contested between Joe Graves and MEA Union official Steve Losey in the old 51st district. This is to replace the recalled Paul Scott who was scalped by the MEA last year. All their work could be for nothing if Joe Graves wins the replacement election. This is in Southern Genesee County.

If you're a Republican in Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Argentine Twp, Mundy Twp, Fenton, Linden, Grand Blanc, or Atlas Twp, this election is extra important with the state rep races. Joe Graves and Bob Gray are on Tuesday's ballot.

Talk is Cheap, especially from politicians

2012-02-23T16:08:00.000-05:00

I actually skipped the debate. Again. One reason is that I already made up my mind and no "words" will change that. The other reason is that all debates do is show talk and not action. These are politicians. The only time talk matters is if that is all there is to go on, and if politicians flip and flop all the time showing pandering. I don't mind true conversions on issues, but everyone knows I have little tolerance for opportunists or vagueness.

My concern especially this year among Republican primary voters is over reliance on debates and talk. Rick Perry dropped out because he's bad in debates. What does that really mean? It means he can't give 30 or 60 second soundbite answers to questions. That's it. Some are better at it than others. I don't speak fast. That's hurt me at times and helped at others. It doesn't change the fact that I have my strengths with some issues and weaknesses at others. What Perry's debate weaknesses do not reflect on is his 12 years as Governor of Texas.

Tim Pawlenty dropped because didn't gain traction due to him being "boring." Why the Hell should that even matter? Does that reflect on his two terms as Governor of Minnesota?

As primary voters or even general election voters, we need to stop worrying so much what politicians say, or if they are interesting. We need to focus on what they do. We need to do the research.

Mitt Romney has a four year record as Massachusetts Governor.
Rich Santorum has a 16 year record in Congress.
Newt Gingrich has a 21 year congressional record.
Ron Paul has a 23 year congressional record.

Actions count, and actions aren't hard to find. http://thomas.loc.gov has a long record of roll call votes from Santorum, Gingrich, and Ron Paul, as well as Obama from his senate years. Don't take some cherry picked advocacy group's word for it either. Look them up yourself from the times they were in office.

Romney was in office from the 2002 election till 2006 when he declined to run for re-election. It's not hard to find a governor's record either. It's a little harder to find things straight from the source since Romney's stuff was scrubbed, but there's plenty of articles about things he's done as governor.

I don't need to be given a rah-rah speech or to be lead. There's only a handful of people I will follow and presidents aren't one of them. I need someone who I can trust to sign the right legislation, appoint good people to the executive departments, appoint good judges and justices, and not screw up foreign policy. We're the board of directors looking to hire a CEO. No more no less. Don't lead me. Do your job, and stay out of my way.

Unintended Consequences of Obama and Sebelius's mandate

2012-02-21T20:39:00.000-05:00

There are many opinions about contraceptives. The media is going crazy about this issue. The fact is that nobody is trying to ban them. There is a battle over requiring religious organizations to pay for it. That's not only wrong due to separation of church and state, but it's going to cause a lot of people to lose coverage. It shows how stupid and shortsighted bureaucrats can be, as well as Obama for signing off on that.

A blind man could see this coming. From Yahoo - The Ticket

On a chilly winter day earlier this month, 120 college presidents--mostly of Protestant schools--from around the country met in Washington for an annual meeting sponsored by the Council of Christian Colleges and Universities, a group that represents 136 American schools and more than 400,000 students. One topic kept coming up in the discussions: How to combat President Barack Obama's proposed mandate for religious employers to provide health insurance that offers free contraception, a decision that would affect all of their institutions--and could violate some of their deepest-held beliefs.

During the conference, 25 of the presidents held a separate policy meeting to discuss the proposed directive, which was first established in the Affordable Care Act in 2010 and was upheld this year by the Department of Health and Human Services. The mandate, later softened by the Obama administration, would have required non-church religious institutions like schools and hospitals to offer health insurance plans that include free access to contraceptives and abortifacient drugs. Many of these presidents made trips to the offices of their representatives to urge them to fight against the decision.

Much of the news coverage of the battle over the contraception mandate focused on the outcry from the Catholic Church, but employers affiliated with Protestant denominations--especially religious colleges who offer insurance plans to students--waged an equally outspoken crusade against the decision. A coalition of more than 60 faith-based groups co-signed a letter to President Obama in December urging him to broaden exemptions to the mandate, and the council's president, Paul Corts, twice sent letters to the administration urging them to reconsider.

After the Obama administration first announced the mandate, colleges associated with Protestant churches and schools founded as expressly Christian institutions fought for exemptions, warning that the mandate could force them to deny health insurance to students who rely on the school's health care plans.

Here's the bottom line. Thanks to the Obama administration's stupid decision, a lot of people will have their health care dropped. Religious organizations will not violate their beliefs. Do not ask them to do so. They will shut down before giving in, just as many adoption agencies did because of gay adoption policies in Massachusetts. If you want these people covered with any health coverage, then you better tell Obama to reverse the policy period. The choices aren't to cover contraceptives or not. The choice is health coverage period or not. By picking that culture war fight, everybody loses.

In addition, how many hospitals are religious-run. In Michigan, a large number of hospitals are Catholic owned. Providence is one of the biggest in neighboring Oakland County. Is this the first step to mandate abortion coverage? Yes, I know about the Hyde Amendment, but with Obamacare on the horizon, what's in store now?

I shouldn't expect anything less from the Peter Principle in Chief.

Don't insult my intelligence

2012-02-21T18:47:00.000-05:00

Everyone that follows Michigan politics knows that Romney is the choice of most of the establishment. Nowhere is that more apparent than our congressional delegation. Only Justin Amash and Candice Miller have not endorsed Romney. Some of them are worried that Romney isn't doing well here. He may yet win Michigan, but it's going to be closer than they wanted. He may lose in the end. That will be decided the 28th.

Politico has a story about the concerns with Romney's campaign. I'm not exactly enamoured with the quotes from Dan Benishek and Bill Huizenga. I've met all of them on different occasions and like them, but they don't get it when it comes to Romney.

The problem, the members said, is simple: Romney has failed to stir the passions of the Republican faithful.

“There’s obviously an element out there looking for an alternative,” said GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga, a former state representative whose district encompasses part of western Michigan.

“I think it breaks back towards him, but he’s got to go earn it,” Huizenga continued. “He’s gotta go at it. He’s got to get everyone fired up.”

Rep. Dan Benishek, a freshman from the socially conservative Upper Peninsula, was more direct in assessing the challenge Romney faces.

“I wish he would be more passionate,” said Benishek, a former Herman Cain supporter who switched to Romney after Cain dropped out. “That’s always been my wish about Mitt.”

Wrong. It's not about passion. They make it sound like Romney can give a homerun speech and all will be well. No. That insults the intelligence of non-Mitt supporters. The problem is trust. The problem is that a lot of people do not trust Mitt Romney and do not believe what he says. That is the problem with flip-flopping too many times, especially right before you decide to run for president. ACTIONS count.

Tim Walberg's a little better on this, but still doesn't completely get it.

“I think Romney will have to explain to the pro-life community that he is true,” Walberg said. “Santorum, of course you can’t get past him on those issues. He’s 100 percent.”
....
“I think Santorum is going to have to contend with the same things that Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich have had to contend with, and the same things that Romney has had to contend with for the entire time,” Walberg said.

“I think Romney has been out there for a while now,” he added. “It’s always been suggested in the national media that Romney doesn’t have it for conservatives, and after a while people begin to believe that kind of stuff.”

I don't have to go to the national media to know Romney's record with conservatives. Romney's 1994 campaign against Ted Kennedy along with his 2002-2006 tenure as Massachusetts governor does the job. Romney signed a gun ban. Romney gave us Romneycare. Romney was "pro-choice" until he decided to run for president. He raised fees (taxes) as governor. Talk it cheap.

Rick Santorum isn't perfect, but I know what I'm going to get from Santorum. His 16 years of actions speaks for itself. Good. Bad. Ugly. I'd rather have that rather than gamble that Mitt won't flip-flop into Romney version 5.0.

Poll Update - 2nd PPP poll less of an outlier

2012-02-21T01:35:00.000-05:00

Last Thursday, I had a post about the delegate process and listed polls and congressional districts.

I never thought Santorum was up 15 over Romney in Michigan. Most of the polls have it 4-10 pts. I think 4 is accurate, right now as things stand today. Will it change in a week? Possibly.

What I like about the PPP polls is that delegates in Michigan are chosen by Congressional District. All the polls are statewide only or listed by some regions. PPP used phone area codes. While that's not a perfect assessment of the polling by district, it does show a rough estimate.

Here's the latest from PPP

Area Code:
231 - 44-22 Santorum - West/NW MI. Muskegon to Traverse City
248 - 36-32 Romney - Oakland County
269 - 48-35 Santorum - Hastings, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, St Joe
313 - 43-22-21 - Romney, Paul, Santorum. Big shift in Wayne County - Is this the Grosse Pointes or Redford/Westland? Paul vote is probably Dearborn.
517 - 40-33 Santorum - Big shift to Santorum. Lansing area, Western Livingston County, Hillsdale, Jackson.
586 - tied at 38. Macomb County.
616 - 37-35 Santorum - Grand Rapids, Holland, Ionia
734 - 40-29 Romney - Big shift to Romney. Ann Arbor, Ypsi, Southernmost Livingston County, Monroe. I'm not surprised here with Ann Arbor.
810 - 46-19-18 Santorum-Paul-Romney. Eastern Livingston, Flint area, Lapeer, Port Huron.
906 - 29-27-21 - Santorum-Romney-Paul - The UP. Small sample of numbers fluctuated here.
989 - 39-29 Santorum-Romney - From Saginaw to Northeastern Michigan.

Based on this:
Santorum takes - CD 1, CD 2, maybe 3, CD 4, CD 5, CD 6, CD 7, CD 10 (thanks to thumb),
Romney takes - CD 9, 11, probably 12, 14.
Tossup - My own 8th District and the 13th

These are the NEW districts that count, not the old one's. That could help or hurt Romney in a big way since the Bloomfield/Birmingham areas - his home base - are carved up into several districts.

The 9th has Southfield Township and Bloomfield Township.
The 11th has part of West Bloomfield, Bloomfield Hills, and Birmingham, as well as Troy.
The 14th has most of West Bloomfield.

Romney in all polls leads Oakland County. The question is where in Oakland. Oakland County is a big place, and doesn't think uniformly throughout the county.

Also the big shift his way in 734 and 313. Where was the 313 samples? I'm guessing largly Grosse Pointe, in the 14th district. Does Redford and Westland in the 13th lean the same way? I'll be somewhat surprised, but it's possible. The 734 numbers here reflect my more original thoughts. I don't see Ann Arbor or suburbs warming up to Santorum. I think Romney would also play well in Plymouth (11th District).

I see this going likely 8-4 Santorum with two up for grabs in the race for Congressional districts. If I got pushed into the corner, I'd guess Romney with the 8th and Santorum the 13th, both narrowly making it 9-5. I wouldn't be shocked at 8-6 or 10-4.

That's also if things don't change. A late surprise attack wouldn't shock me in the slightest.